RBI raises inflation projection to 5.7%

印度央行将通胀预期上调至5.7%

NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday sharply raised its inflation forecast to 5.7% from the earlier 4.5%, and lowered its GDP estimate to 7.2% from 7.8% for 2022-23, citing the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions triggered by the war in Ukraine.

新德里：周五，印度储备银行将2022财年的通胀预期从早先的4.5%大幅上调至5.7%，并将GDP增速预期从7.8%下调至7.2%，理由是乌克兰战争引发的地缘政治紧张局势不断升级的影响。

The 5.7% forecast is closer to the upper band of the central bank’s tolerance level.

“Economic activity, although recovering, is barely above its pre-pandemic level,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in his policy statement.

5.7%的预测更接近央行容忍水平的上限。印度央行行长沙克蒂坎塔•达斯在政策声明中表示：“经济活动虽然正在复苏，但仅略高于疫情前的水平。”

Das said the spike in international crude oil prices since February-end poses substantial upside risk to inflation through both direct and indirect effects.

达斯表示，国际原油价格自2月底以来的上涨，通过直接和间接的影响，对通胀构成了巨大的上行风险。

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das in his policy statement on Friday said the external geopolitical developments during the past two months have led to the materialisation of downside risks to the domestic growth outlook and upside risks to inflation projections presented in the February MPC resolution. "Inflation is now projected to be higher and growth lower than the assessment in February," he added.

达斯在周五的政策声明中表示，过去两个月的外部地缘政治发展已经导致了国内增长前景的下行风险和货币政策委员会2月份决议中提出的通胀预期的上行风险。他补充称：“目前的通胀预期将高于2月份的评估，而增长预期将低于2月份的评估。”

The finance ministry had estimated growth to be in the 8% to 8.5% range in 2022-23 but has said if crude oil prices remain persistently high it could have implications for growth and inflation.

财政部曾预计，2022年的经济增速将在8% - 8.5%之间，但表示，如果原油价格持续高企，可能会对经济增长和通胀产生影响

Edible oil price pressures are likely to remain elevated in the near-term due to export restrictions by key producers as well as loss of supply from the Black Sea region. Feed cost pressures could continue due to global supply shortages, which could also have a spillover impact on poultry, milk and dairy product prices, Das said.

由于主要产油国的出口限制以及黑海地区的供应减少，食用油的价格压力在短期内可能会继续升高。达斯说，由于全球供应短缺，饲料成本压力可能继续存在，这也可能对家禽、牛奶和乳制品价格产生溢出效应。

Sharp increase in domestic pump prices could trigger broad-based second round price pressures. A combination of high international commodity prices and elevated logistic disruptions could aggravate input costs across agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors. Their pass-through to retail prices, therefore, warrants continuous monitoring and proactive supply management, he said.

国内成品油价格的大幅上涨可能引发广泛的第二轮价格压力。国际大宗商品价格高企，加之物流中断加剧，可能会加大农业、制造业和服务业的投入成本。他说，因此，会导致零售价格上涨，因此需要持续监控和积极主动的供应管理。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎   译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rbi-raises-inflation-projection-to-5-7/articleshow/90736203.cms

BlackMagic

India is in worse situation than both Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Pakoda PM accomplishments

印度的情况比斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦还糟。

BlackMagic

Ambani, Adani and Gujju scammers are the only ones who benefitted during Pakoda PM rule. Otherwise, Indians have become poorer. Now Indian per capita income is less than Bangladesh, soon Bangladesh will be complaining about Indian illegal immigrants. All thanks to Modi ji Namo Namo, gau mata ki jai

安巴尼、阿达尼和古吉拉特骗子是莫迪执政期间唯一受益的人，而普通印度人更穷了。

现在印度的人均收入低于孟加拉国，很快孟加拉国就会抱怨非法印度移民的涌入。这一切都拜莫迪所赐

Sanjoy Pandey

I think actual inflation will be much more than that.

我认为实际的通货膨胀率将远高于此

K Mohan

Inflation is high and common man can feel the pinch of harsh and ruthless price rises

通货膨胀居高不下，普通人可以感受到物价上涨的残酷无情

User Iyer Mani

This is mere hogwash. Inflation has gone through the sky.

这纯粹是一派胡言，通货膨胀已经高上天了。

Asok Datta

India is in the grip of a severe economic crisis and may see the fate of Sri Lanka due to inept financial handling by an incompetent finance minister and the Gujju gang

印度正面临严重的经济危机，可能会面临斯里兰卡的命运，因为一个无能的财政部长和古吉拉特帮派不懂财政

Reddy

All numbers are fake, far from reality, just like government pickle expert.

所有的数据都是假的，和现实相差胜远。

User Rushi

All policies to favour their MAsters & Neo Crony capitalists at the cost of depositors, Taxpayers, Banking Sector & Indian economy. Britishers have Gone now is an era of Crony Capitalism

所有政策都是为了偏袒他们的主人和新裙带资本家，以储户、纳税人、银行业和印度经济为代价。英国人已经走了，现在是裙带zb主义的时代

Umesh Chandra Sharma

inflation is more than 15 percent, look at your family budgets and savings …

通货膨胀超过15%，看看你们的家庭预算和存款…

Radheya

More printing of money is accelerating phenomenal inflation than at no point in India's history. When inflation is overheated, the designed monetary tool to tame it is by raising interest rates

大量印钞正在加速印度史上前所未有的通货膨胀。当通胀过高时，旨在抑制通胀的货币工具就是提高利率。

User Rushi

See gallo Fuel Prices ( Petrol Diesel, PNG, CNG, LPG,) & its Cost push impact, editable oil prices, milk, vegetables, Lemon & chilies prices, increase in Cotton & FMCG Prices & RBI wants to believe the inflation rate within comfort levels!!!Re fallen to 76 vis a vis $

看看飞速上涨的燃料价格(汽油、柴油，PNG, CNG, LPG)及其成本推动影响，牛奶，蔬菜，柠檬和辣椒的价格上涨，

棉花和快速消费品价格的上涨，印度央行希望大家相信通胀在舒适的水平

卢比跌至76卢比对1美元

Alam Shaikh

great !!

acche din

太好了，“好日子”啊

Ab

everybody knows inflammation is above 10%

大家都知道通胀率在10%以上

Swaminathan Deltasami

Totally fake statement. Again and again he Shakti kanta das stated, " geopolitical ". If RBI depend on it, then how he predicts this growth and inflation? . Everyone felt pain on day to day raising price hike and broken supply chain with sky high demand . Even today lemon sold Rs.100 kg.

撒谎。他一次又一次说“地缘政治”，如果印度央行依赖于此，那么他如何预测这种增长和通胀？

每天都感到痛苦，价格上涨，供应链断了，需求高得惊人。柠檬的售价都要100卢比了。

User Venkatesan

So, it is clear that the interest given for deposits in banks are noe enough to beat inflation and thus value of savings is diminishing year after year. More affected are the retired senior citizens. Will Govt look into this as part of inflation study and forecast?

很明显，银行存款的利息不足以抑制通货膨胀，存款年复一年地贬值。受影响更大的是退休老人。政府在研究和预测通胀时会考虑这点吗?

Radheya

The RBI as an institution has lost its independence, autonomy and credibility

印度储备银行已经失去了独立性、自主性和可信度

User Shee

Shame shame shame, only single digit inflation. We see double digit in MMS time. We want double digit inflation in Pappu khan time.

丢人，通货膨胀才个位数。我们在辛格时代看到过两位数。我们希望在拉胡尔时代出现两位数的通货膨胀

BharatGuy

It is a very small increase. Unemployment is zero percent. What else do you need?

这是一个非常小的增长。失业率为零，你还想要什么?

Mohit Goyal

With government in no mood to reduce the taxes on fuel, Inflation bound to further strengthen & higher inflation is always bad for economy.

政府不打算降低燃油税，通胀必然会进一步提高，更高的通胀对经济总是有害的。

VmnS

Time for critical institutions like RBI to work professionally.

像印度储备银行这样的关键机构是时候专业起来了。

San

This Gobaar Uneducated Fekuuu is main reason for downfall in India for last 8 years, Adani/Ambani Chors are looting, country going down day by day...

印度过去8年衰退主要是因为没受过教育的莫迪，阿达尼和安巴尼们在掠夺，国家一天天走下坡路…

Ramesh Pai

People expect miracles from the PM and FM after the country was looted like crazy by the previous government. People expect financial miracles even after devastating affects of Pandemic on economies world wide.. IF Gandhis could give back the 100s of billions they looted from India, we would be in better shape!

国家被前政府疯狂地洗劫，人们期待现任总理创造奇迹。即使在疫情对全球经济造成毁灭性影响后，人们仍期待出现金融奇迹。如果甘地家族能归还他们从印度掠夺的1000亿美元，我们的情况会更好！