印度两位数通胀持续一年：自1953年以来的第6次，25年来的首次

Double-digit inflation for a year: 6th spell since 1953 & 1st in 25 years

两位数通胀持续一年：自1953年以来的第6次，25年来的首次

In March this year, India completed 12 successive months of double-digit wholesale price inflation (WPI inflation). This is the sixth occasion when inflation has remained over 10% for a year or longer, and it came more than a quarter of a century after the last such episode — between March 1994 and May 1995.

截止今年3月，印度批发价格指数(WPI)连续12个月达到两位数。这是第6次通货膨胀率在一年或更长时间内保持在10%以上，上一次通货膨胀发生在1994年3月至1995年5月之间，距今已有25年之久。

Three of the episodes happened before the early 1980s, a period of volatile inflation, while the fourth was caused among other things by the devaluation of the rupee in 1991-92 in the wake of a forex crisis.

其中三次发生在上世纪80年代初之前，当时的通胀波动较大，而第四次发生在1991-1992年，原因之一是外汇危机后卢比贬值。

The analysis of past data, which is available since April 1953, shows that earlier spells of double-digit inflation for a year or more had different causes, ranging from droughts and wars to currency devaluation and major global commodity price shocks. Also, the high dependency on food and other imports (India got 82% of the population and 75% of the cereal production of the undivided country), plateauing agricultural yields in the 1950s and frequent droughts left policymakers with very little leg-room to manoeuvre through the price rise menace in the early decades of Independence.

对1953年4月以来的历史数据进行的分析显示，早期连续一年或更长时间的两位数通胀的原因有所不同，包括干旱和战争、货币贬值以及全球大宗商品价格的重大冲击。同时,高度依赖进口食品和其他进口，上世纪50年代农业产量停滞不前，频繁的干旱让决策者在独立后的最初几十年里几乎没有空间来应对价格上涨的威胁。

Independent India saw its first extended spell of double-digit WPI inflation in the 11 months between April 1956 and February 1957. In a 2010 speech, Deepak Mohanty, then RBI executive director, linked this spell to a drought and a decline in agricultural output for two consecutive years. This was the pre-Green Revolution period, when yields had stagnated and there was no price support from the government. The second spell was the seven months between August 1964 and February 1965. The year 1965 saw the double whammy of drought as well as war with Pakistan.

独立后的印度在1956年4月至1957年2月的11个月里首次出现了两位数的WPI通胀。在2010年的一次演讲中，时任印度央行执行董事的迪帕克•莫汉蒂(Deepak Mohanty)将这种现象与干旱和连续两年的农业产出下降联系起来。这是绿色革命之前的时期，当时收益率停滞不前，没有来自政府的支持。第二个时期是1964年8月到1965年2月之间的7个月。1965年遭受了旱灾和与巴基斯坦的战争的双重打击。

Next was a 21-month-long episode between March 1966 and November 1967. Like the previous year, 1966 too was a drought year and also saw a devaluation of the Indian rupee, which made imports more expensive.

接下来是1966年3月到1967年11月之间长达21个月的一次。和前一年一样，1966年也是干旱之年，印度卢比也贬值了，这使得进口更加昂贵。

India’s longest spell of double-digit inflation happened between October 1972 and March 1975. This was immediately after the 1971 war with Pakistan and the 30-month episode saw a drought year in 1972 and the first global oil shock in 1973. The next major episode was the 26 months between July 1979 and August 1981. This was also caused by the oil shock after the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq war and the drought in 1979.

印度持续时间最长的两位数通胀发生在1972年10月至1975年3月之间。这发生在1971年与巴基斯坦的战争之后，在这30个月中，1972年是干旱之年，1973年是第一次全球石油危机。下一个主要时期是1979年7月到1981年8月的26个月。这也是伊朗革命后的石油冲击、两伊战争和1979年的干旱造成的。

In the early liberalisation period of the 1990s, the rupee was again devalued making imports expensive. The 21 months between Nov 1990 and July 1992 saw WPI inflation remaining stubbornly in double digits. The next over-a-year-long stretch of douible-digit inflation happened between March 1994 and May 1995 which Mohanty in his speech attributed to the hike in administered prices, shortfalls in cash crop production, high fiscal deficit and large monetary expansion.

在上世纪90年代的自由化初期，卢比再次贬值，使得进口产品变得昂贵。在1990年11月至1992年7月的21个月里，WPI通胀率顽固地保持在两位数。接下来一年多的两位数通胀发生在1994年3月至1995年5月之间，莫汉蒂在讲话中将其归因于操纵价格上涨、经济作物产量不足、高财政赤字和大规模货币扩张。

After May 1995, India had not had even six successive months of 10% plus inflation till the latest unbroken run. Although there is a sudden rise in oil prices after the Russia-Ukraine war, WPI inflation has been at double-digit levels from well before the war.

1995年5月之后，印度的通胀率连续6个月超过10%，直到最近一次持续上涨。尽管在俄乌战争后油价突然上涨，但WPI通胀率从战争前就一直保持在两位数水平。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

orsa

private enterprises and middlemen are to blame. also there is dominos effect. coal and fuel price hike leads to steel, iron and aluminium price hike. China rate hike of paper leads to packaging material price hike. transport price hike. labour but not salary hike. and lastly, agriculture price hike Leads to commodity price hike and hence the inflation.

私营企业和中间商是罪魁祸首。还有多米诺骨牌效应。煤炭和燃料价格上涨导致钢、铁和铝价格上涨。中国纸价上涨导致包装材料价格上涨。运输飞涨，但工资不涨。最后，农产品价格上涨导致商品价格上涨，从而导致通货膨胀。

eplyk

Freebies and subsidies are the reason

发免费品和补贴也是原因之一

1 0 • Reply • Flag

Supreme court should intervene and STOP all freebies like water, electricity, and other subsidy which are promised by political parties or else it would not be easy for India to survive

印度最高法院应该干预，禁止所有政党承诺提供免费品，比如水、电和其他补贴，否则印度将难以生存

1 0 • Reply • Flag

ache din

“好日子”

0 0 • Reply • Flag

When the petrol is selling at Triple-digit, inflation cannot remain in single-digit. TRUTHS ARE THE SIMPLEST. JAI HIND.

当汽油售价达到三位数时，通胀不可能保持在个位数。真理是最简单的。印度必胜！

2 0 • Reply • Flag

Blood succing Govt. of commen people.

吸老百姓血的印度政府。

Bharat

Thanks to incompetent PM and his government.

多亏了无能的总理和他领导的政府。

User m

Looks like our govt missed to hide or manipulate this fact!

看来我们的政府没能隐瞒或操纵这一事实!

1 1 • Reply • Flag

modi hai to mumkhin hai

莫迪让一切成为可能！

Citizen Welfare Desk

economy is in bad condition .It is badly managed. Despite inflation, Modi's moneky Minister thinking to raise GST rates on 142 items from 14 % to 28% bracket. Think of what would be the inflation situation. Modi is making money along with his ministers but people are milked every now and then in every space. Economic condition is worsening with too much increased unemployment. Bhaktas cannt see this and cannt shout., their mouth is shut.

经济状况不佳，管理不善。尽管存在通货膨胀，莫迪的财政部长仍在考虑将142项商品的消费税税率从14%提高到28%。想想通货膨胀会演变成啥样吧。莫迪和他的部长们一起赚钱，但人们在各个领域被压榨。由于失业人数增加太多，经济状况正在恶化。印度人看不到这一点，也不能叫喊。他们的嘴被闭上了。

4 0 • Reply • Flag

Boost supply side and lower inflation.

提振供给面，降低通胀。

Timir Ghosh

Every body and in particular the seculars talk about Inflation but silent over all poor survived in this most difficult period of COVID-19 when no body worked but got the belly full of daily free meals supplied by PM Modi. No body thinks where and How Modi fedd these 81 cr free for two years. These anti Nationals are shear selfish jiants in Indian Society and take every opportunity to loot and blame Modi. But World recognize what Modi did for its poor.

每个人，尤其是世俗分子，都在谈论通货膨胀，但对所有穷人在疫情期最困难的时期能生存下来保持沉默，大家都没工作，不过每天都能吃上莫迪总理提供的免费食物。没人想过如何养活这些8.1亿人两年。这些反国家分子是印度社会的自私分子，抓住一切机会指责莫迪。但世界承认莫迪为穷人做了什么

Gentleman

If the inflation is tamed or controlled then the Govts plan of double digit growth is at big risk.

如果通胀得到控制，那么政府的两位数增长计划将面临巨大风险。

Guest

Acche Din have arrived.If you want more acche din with your next generation begging in front of temples and statues vote for BJP once again

“好日子”来了。如果你想让你的下一代在寺庙和雕像前乞讨，请再次投票给人民党

0 0 • Reply • Flag

All indian people are happy under modi ji’s rule because he made everything cheaper and these congressi paid media is saying there is a inflation.

在莫迪的统治下，所有印度人都很开心，所有东西都更便宜了，而国大党收买的媒体却说有通货膨胀。

No more BS

Almost all human, economic and development indexes are going down, but the Indoctrinated lunatics will not pull their heads out to see the reality and hold the leadership accountable.

人类、经济和发展指数都在下降，但被洗脑的傻子不会把头伸出来看清现实，也不会让领导层负责。

9 0 • Reply • Flag

my logic :,now only sonia and rahul and chidu can save india with the lakhs of crores of indian money looted and salted away in off shore accounts .

我认为现在只有索尼娅、拉胡尔和 chidu能拯救印度，用数以千万计存入海外账户的赃款。

1 1 • Reply • Flag

FAKE NEWS. INFLATION IS IN NEGATIVE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS ZERO PERCENT UNDER OUR GREST LEADER MODIJI.

假新闻。在我们最伟大领导人莫迪的领导下，通货膨胀率是负的，失业率是零。

Sanjoy Pandey

All the governments should make all out efforts to control inflation.

各邦政府都应尽一切努力控制通货膨胀。

Anand Jain

govt says ..its all ok ..public voting us