How data points to India’s demographic opportunity in manufacturing, strengths & weaknesses

印度发展制造业的人口机遇，优势和劣势

以下是Youtube上印度网民的评论：

Atulkumar Singh

I am sick of listening about India’s demographic advantages since last one decade, however India is not able to use it in its formal manufacturing sector. Majority of factories want to remain small employing informal contract workers.

自从过去10年以来，我厌倦了听印度有人口优势，然而印度制造业没有充分利用这一优势。大多数工厂是小规模的，雇佣非正式的合同工。

ADR

Analysts keep saying India is in a great place to exploit and build a manufacturing base but we’ve not been able to capitalise on this opportunities for years now. I really hope we develop manufacturing industry because services is already strong, so a strong manufacturing and services industry will make us a total powerhouse.

分析人士一直表示，印度是一个发展制造业的好地方，但我们多年来一直未能抓住这一机会。我非常希望我们能发展制造业，服务业已经很强大了，制造业和服务业的发展能使我们成为一个强大的国家。

Aditya Iyer

I think the new labour codes may be implemented anytime soon, most states (~25 states) have finalized draft labour codes. So it should be implemented by this year.

我认为新的劳工法可能很快就会实施，大多数邦(大约25个邦)已经敲定了劳工法草案。应该在今年实施。

S B

India's or Bangladesh's or Pakistan's  demographic liability.

And China's demographic advantage.

It's all about education skill and more technical education.

印度、孟加拉国或巴基斯坦的人口是负担。而中国的人口是优势。

这关乎教育，技能和更多的技术性教育。

Indranil Chowdhury

women not participating in the workforce is one of the reasons of this gloomy situation. Creating jobs for the demographic bulge was the most important task of the Modi govt - it has failed. Infact, this is the most important issue of national importance.

女性不参加工作是造成这种悲观局面的原因之一。为人口膨胀创造就业机会是莫迪政府最重要的任务——但失败了。事实上，这是国家最重要的问题。

Gururaj BN

As China embraced capitalist economy, Indians choose to import cheap low quality goods from China and palm them off to Indian customers, rather than strengthen the manufacturing base. Government policies did not help the manufacturers in the least. Shortsighted government and businessmen are guilty of setting back India's strengths. Even now, India should occupy the space vacated by China in basic manufacturing sector.

随着中国拥抱资 本主义经济，印度人选择从中国进口价廉物美的商品，然后卖给印度消费者，而不加强制造业基础。政府的政策丝毫没有惠及制造商。目光短浅的政府和商人对阻碍印度的发展负有责任。印度也应该填补中国在基础制造业领域腾出的空间。

Tushar Pandey

Well, I would differ from the idea of increasing penetration of foreign production houses, most manufacturing-intensive industries are reducing their labor force for automation which makes the labor-intensive markets much more vulnerable.

我不同意增加外国企业的渗透，大多数制造密集型行业都在为自动化而减少劳动力，这使得劳动密集型市场更加易受影响。

Arjun S

There has been no significant improvement in the quality of life in our cities even in a decade. Roads continue to be pathetic, there are no pavements or decent parks, no planning, poorly planned public transit, poor waste management and so on. As SG mentioned in an earlier CTC, our cities are urban villages and nothing else. Why does this matter to the the discussion at hand? People who are employed in these high tech jobs are mostly in cities and they would leave the country at the drop of a hat.

我们城市的生活质量甚至在十年里都没有明显的改善。

道路仍然很糟糕，没有人行道或像样的公园，没有规划，公共交通没有规划，垃圾管理糟糕等等。

我们的城市就是城中村，仅此而已。

从事高科技工作的人大多在城市，他们会毫不犹豫地离开这个国家。

Vijay Pawar

Upcoming much delayed New labour law is directed towards enlarging manufacturing sectors ...

即将出台的拖延已久的新劳动法旨在扩大制造业

Nagraj Baggon

On paper this looks good. However India has a very complicated business and tax environment.

理论上看起来不错。然而，印度的营商环境和税收政策非常复杂。

Narasimha Srinivas

Skill development for manufacturing industry was given high priority by the UPA, but shelved by the Modi Government probably with a feeling that India would always be a laggard in manufacturing sector and hence, 'why bother'.

国大党把制造业技能发展放在了高度优先的位置，莫迪政府可能觉得印度在制造业方面会一直落后，所以“不麻烦”了，干脆搁置了

Soumen Ghosh

As India at this point can not even provide job opportunities for the highest educated and most skilled people in the workforce, a larger workforce in future is only going to be a nightmare not a blessing.

印度目前为受教育程度最高、技术水平最高的人才提供就业机会，未来更大规模的劳动力只会是噩梦，而不是幸事。

garyish

Imagine if we implement labor and farm laws and we will be at the top of the world.

想象一下，如果我们实施劳动法和农业法，我们将站在世界之巅。

Rohith John

It's an opportunity that cannot be wasted. Modi is the best bet if he is able to stitch together all people of the country for it's collective benefit.

这是一个不能浪费的机会。如果莫迪能够为了集体利益团结全国人民，那么他就是最佳人选。

Karthic Sitaraman

We killed manufacturing long back

很久以前我们就扼杀了制造业。

padmanabanv87

We cannot underestimate China here, even though their working age population is declining, it will replace low skilled workers with industrial bots.

我们不能低估中国，尽管他们的劳动适龄人口正在减少，但他们会用工业机器人取代低技能工人。

Poulami Sen

Japan can become more inclusive in terms of allowing a substantial amount of people from other Asian countries to work in its market. It can counter the problem of employability in Japan and other Asian countries. Everyone will find it beneficial.

日本可以变得更加包容，允许大量其他亚洲国家的人在日本市场工作。这可以解决日本和其他亚洲国家的就业问题。每个人都会发现这是有益的。

Ian Shaver

Right now is definitely a window of opportunity. Labor costs in China are getting too high, and China’s recent policies have made companies consider it a risky place to invest. There’s definitely a huge hole to fill. The question is whether India will put in place policies in place that make companies think “I can make money here”.

现在绝对是一个机会。中国的劳动力成本越来越高，

而中国最近的政策也让企业认为中国是一个有风险的投资地。肯定有一个巨大的缺口需要填补。

问题是，印度是否会出台政策，让企业认为“在印度可以赚钱”。

Anurag Banerjee

There is no advantage .. if people dont acquire skills .. the question is do people want to acquire skills and work or not ? depend on incentives

如果人口没有掌握技能，那印度没有什么优势…

Skbandi

Very good analysis overall, in workforce , you presented that almost 50% in employability category are not looking for job? Reason? Is it anything to do with freebies?

在劳动力方面，你提出在可就业类别中几乎有50%的人没有在找工作?原因是？

这是因为他妈可以拿到免费赠品吗？

Vivekanand Holla

This human resource capital advantage is been available for a while now. Unfortunately,  nothing much has happened till now. More needs to be done. How investors can be pulled into investing in some of these sectors needs to be discussed on a policy basis.

这种人力资源优势已经存在一段时间了。不幸的是，到目前为止没有好好利用。我们需要做的还很多。

Rajkamal Sarma

Our demographic advantage needs to be utilised in the next 2 decades and that is our best shot to move to a middle income country. If we fail in that, it will have terrible consequences for our children

我们的人口优势需要在未来20年得到利用，这是我们迈向中等收入国家的最好机会。如果我们不能做到这一点，我们的孩子会过着悲惨的日子

tosh Chauhan

Automation and AI will reduce the demand of manual labour. So it doesn't matter if chinese have  lesser manoower than india....they wll have geater automation and greater productivity.  More manpower of india will remain redundant.

自动化和人工智能将减少对体力劳动的需求。所以中国人口是否比印度人口更少并不重要....他们拥有更高程度的自动化和更高的生产力。印度有再多人力仍然是多余的。

Kenpachi Yoriichi

Considering that industries have the highest power tariffs, difficulties in land acquisition, inability of government to push forward labour reforms- manufacturing is not going to move here.

考虑到工业电费高，征地困难，政府无力推进劳动力改革，制造业不会搬到印度来。

Suresh Muththaiah

Excellent report, and it seems that India has all the right elements in favour of becomes a manufacturing powerhouse. I’m sure Modi government is poised to use this opportunity to further develop.

印度似乎具备成为制造业大国的所有有利因素。我相信莫迪政府准备好利用这个机会进一步发展。

Sudhanshu Pawar

I understand focus on Pk when discussing geopolitics but when it comes geoeconomics, I'd like to see more comparison with Indonesia, Vietnam. Where are global tech giants going to build their next manufacturing plant? Indonesia and Vietnam feature as competitors to India... IMO, Would be good to focus on them

在讨论地缘政治时关注巴基斯坦，但当涉及到地缘经济时，我希望看到更多地与印尼、越南进行比较。

全球科技巨头会把他们的下一个工厂建在哪里？

印尼和越南是印度的竞争对手…

在我看来，关注他们会很好

Ainkya Wagh

Question should be why employment opportunities are not being generated despite growth?

问题是，为什么经济增长了，却没有创造就业机会?

RAVI Kumar

I differ with you here- manufacturing technology also has moved due to automation. So I doubt that manufacturing can drive employment

自动化也促进了制造技术的进步。我怀疑制造业能否带动就业

Selva

High tech and manufacturing is essential but we need to look around us. Ukraine war has thought the world on how critical to be self sufficient. Being most populous country, we first need to address food security. This brings agri reforms as the critical. Doubling farmers income can not just be slogan

高科技和制造业是必不可少的，环顾四周，乌克兰战争让世界意识到自给自足是多么重要。

作为人口最多的国家，我们首先要解决粮食安全问题。

这使得农业改革成为关键。农民收入翻番不能只是口号

Premdas Dutta

Focus should be on manufacturing goods exports should be our target. All state governments should have specially created manufacturing zones to attract manufacture and push exports.why like China we cannot be an manufacturing and export driven economy.

重点应该放在制造业，出口应该是我们的目标。所有邦政府都应该设立专门的工业园区，以吸引制造业，推动出口。为什么我们不能像中国一样成为制造业大国和出口驱动型经济。