如果墨西哥决定加入中俄联盟，美墨会不会像俄乌那样开战

If Mexco decides to join China and Russia coalition, do you think there would have been a war between the USA and Mexco like the one happening now between Russia and Ukraine?

如果墨西哥决定加入中俄联盟，美墨会不会像俄乌那样开战呢？你怎么看

以下是Quora读者的评论：

KonstantineOnapolous

B.S., MBA, Th.D., Ph.D.,Aug 11

Having read this question and then considered the plethora of answers it has received, it became clear that a resounding number of people responding have either purposely ignored the context of the question, or more probably, have little if any understanding of the dynamics of the “war" between Russia and Ukraine.

Unlike the Ukraine, Mexco is not now, nor has it ever been part of the USA. Moreover, Mexco is not nor is it likely to enact political genocide against Mexcan citizens who are pro-American.

This question, if addressed in the comparative context should raise the same question but focused on Texas. If Texas were to terminate it's statehood, become an independent nation (threats Texas has and continues to proffer), and then openly solicit a coalition with Russia or China (or other unnamed “enemies" of the USA), one would expect nothing less than the military response Russia has employed against Ukraine.

看看这个问题，再看看这些评论，很显然，很多人要么故意忽略了问题的背景，要么极有可能对俄乌战争几乎一无所知。

跟乌克兰不同的是，墨西哥现在不是，也从来不曾归属于美国。另外，墨西哥不会，也决不可能对亲美的墨西哥公民实施政治上的种族灭绝手段。

如果是为了对比而提出这个问题，那德克萨斯州也有着同样的问题。如果德州不甘心继续维持美国某州的地位，而是想要成为某个独立的国家，然后公开向俄罗斯或中国(或其他美国的“敌人”)结盟，那么请大家拭目以待，美国马上就会采取俄罗斯对乌克兰采取过的军事行动。

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Agustin Velazquez

I am a MexcanMay 7

As a Mexcan, I can give you an idea.

While very veryvery unlikely, let’s imagine that there a formal China and Russia coalition that is expanded to include Mexco, which leads to a military facility in Mexco being open. Mexco actually does not allow any foreign military operate in Mexco and neither establish a base, but again, we are just using an imaginary scenario in order to reply to this question.

作为一个墨西哥人，我来跟你说两句。

虽然是极极极不可能的事，但让我们想象一下，假如中俄联盟真的扩到了墨西哥，墨西哥就得开放某个军事基地。但事实上墨西哥并不允许任何外国军队在墨西哥行动，也不允许在墨西哥建立基地，但重申一下，我们只是为了回答这个问题进行假想。

The US instead of flexng its military muscle on Mexco, they will simply use their economic leverage over Mexco. Using national security as an excuse, similar to what Donald Trump did in the past, they will start either imposing severe tariffs, sanctions over key products or outright economic embargo.

美国不会对墨西哥采取军事行动，但美国会对墨西哥动用经济手段。他们会把国家安全作为借口，就像唐纳德·特朗普之前干过的那样，要么对核心产品实施严厉关税和制裁，要么对墨西哥实施彻底的经济禁运。

Mexco’s economy will go immediately into havoc, since around 80% of our exports goes to the US market. In comparison, only close to 16% of US exports goes to Mexco. While would also be a blow to US internal national commerce, the US can find markets elsewhere to supplement that loss.

No Mexcan government would be able to sustain that catastrophic blow to the economy. Lets not forget that Mexco is a presidential de ocracy, and this scenario would be the perfect storm for opposition parties to take over the government and change course.

一旦如此，墨西哥的经济将立即陷入混乱，因为我们对美国的出口占到总出口额的大约80%。相比之下，美国对墨西哥的出口只有不到16%。虽然这也会对美国国内商业造成打击，但美国完全可以在其他国家找到代替市场，弥补这一损失。

没有哪个墨西哥政府能够承受住经济的灾难性打击。我们别忘了，墨西哥是一个总统民主国家，这种情况将是反对党接管政府、改朝换代大刀阔斧的绝佳机会。

Matt B

Apr 29

No, and that highlights the patently ridiculous nature of Putin’s claims that NATO is somehow threatening Russia by considering allowing Ukraine to join.

Now, if large numbers of Russian/Chinese troops and other offensive forces were deployed to Mexco then that might be a different matter, and I would expect a lot of tension. But:

NATO has bordered Russia for years, and no major offensive forces have ever been forward deployed to Eastern Europe precisely to avoid antagonising Russia

NATO (and probably Ukraine) would likely have been very open to limitations of forces agreements in the event of Ukraine’s joining, in order to keep peace (so long as such arrangements were/are reciprocal).

But what Putin wants is to have the ability to bully his neighbours, and that is something that NATO would stop him from doing.

不，这正说明普京之前痛批北约考虑乌克兰加入北约的做法在某种程度上威胁到了俄罗斯的说法有多荒谬。

现在，如果大量的俄罗斯/中国军队和其他军队被部署到墨西哥，那可能就不一样了，我认为局势会很紧张。但是：

多年来，北约一直与俄罗斯接壤，但从未在东欧部署军队，这恰恰是为了避免激怒俄罗斯。

如果乌克兰加入北约，北约(可能还有乌克兰)可能会对限制军事行动的协议持开放态度，维持和平(前提协议是平等的)。

但普京想要的是拥有霸凌邻国的能力，而这恰好是北约不愿坐视不管的。

Geoffrey Widdison

Chemical Engineer (2006–present)Apr 29

Well, first of all, there is no “China and Russia coalition”. The two nations appear to have increasingly close diplomatic and economic ties, but they’re not militarily allied in the sense that NATO countries (for example) are.

If they did form such a coalition, the United States would consider that coalition to be a potential rival to our power base. It wouldn’t likely be as intense as during the Cold War, but we’d pay attention, especially if that coalition seemed to be gathering allies and making more aggressive moves.

So, if Mexco were to join such a coalition, we would consider that to be a threat, in the same way that we considered co unist governments near us to be threats during the Cold War. Without a doubt, we’d make use of diplomatic and economic pressure to try to separate Mexco from the coalition. If we felt sufficiently threatened, we’d likely to what we did during the Cold War: seek to interfere in local politics to change the government, encourage insurrections, to the point of providing military aid and training rebels (and allegedly assassinating politicians).

So, yeah, we’d definitely take measures to try to keep that coalition from having a member on our border. But just rolling across the border in an overt invasion? I’d like to think our leaders aren’t that dumb.

首先， “中俄联盟”是子虚乌有的事。这两个国家的外交和经济关系似乎越来越密切，但它们并没有像北约国家（举个例子）那样结成军事同盟。

如果他们真的结盟，美国肯定会把其视为眼中钉，不过不太可能像冷战期间那样紧张，但我们会密切关注，看看这个联盟是否集结更多盟友，采取更激进的行动。

所以，如果墨西哥加入这个联盟，我们会认为这是个威胁，就像冷战期间我们觉得某些政府是个威胁一样。毫无疑问，我们会利用外交和经济压力逼迫墨西哥脱离这个联盟。如果我们觉得威胁太大，可能还会采取冷战时的相同做法：干预当地政治，改变政府，鼓励叛乱，甚至提供军事援助，协助培养叛军(据称还暗杀政客)。

所以，没错，我们肯定会采取措施，阻挠该联盟的成员进入我们的边境。但他们会这么公然越过边界入侵吗？我愿意相信我们的领导人还不至于那么蠢。

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David Loeb

Apr 24

The U.S. and Mexco aren’t going to war again. It’s not in either of their interests.

Mexco would not ally with China since China is a competitor for attracting outsourced U.S. manufacturing. China’s advantage in this battle has been cheaper labor. Mexco’s has been a friendlier relationship, lower transportation costs, and NAFTA. You don’t give up your good symbiotic relationship to ally with an economic competitor.

Mexco, like Russia, is also a Non OPEC oil producer, Russia doesn’t have anything Mexco wants. Mexco has a small army with light equipment so doesn’t want Russian Arms, and doesn’t want or need Russian energy or metals either. Total Mexco/US trade is 250 times what Russia/Mexco trade is. Half of what Mexco buys from Russia is raw iron.

Mexco is highly anti-imperialist, far more than just about anyone else. They are right now in a similar place to where the U.S. was in the 19th century. They don’t want foreign wars, they want to trade and develop their country for the people who live there and to do so peacefully. You want to build a factory there great! You want to build a military base there; no way in hell!

放心，美国和墨西哥不会再次开战的，这对彼此都没好处。

墨西哥是不会与中国结盟的，因为中国是跟墨西哥竞争美国制造业外包资源的对手。在这场竞争中，中国的优势一直是廉价的劳动力。墨西哥的优势在于更友好的政治关系，更低的运输成本，还有北美自由贸易协定。墨西哥不可能抛弃良好的共生关系，反而与经济竞争对手结盟。

墨西哥和俄罗斯一样，也是一个非石油输出国组织成员国的石油生产国，俄罗斯有的墨西哥也有。墨西哥有一支装备轻装的小军队，所以不需要俄罗斯的武器，不想要也不需要俄罗斯的能源和金属。墨西哥与美国的贸易总额是俄罗斯与墨西哥贸易的250倍。墨西哥从俄罗斯购买的一半商品是生铁。

墨西哥是高度反帝国主义的国家，远超其他任何国家。他们现在的处境与19世纪的美国相似。他们不要战争，他们想要贸易，想要为民众和平地发展自己的国家。如果你想在那里建厂，那么真是太棒了！但你想在那里建军事基地，那绝对不可以！

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Wes Frank

Masters in American History from Northwestern UniversityUpdated Apr 19

Mexco has never allied itself with a troublesome European or Asian power in its entire history and has no motivation to do so today. It would do Mexco no good to ally with a nation on the far side of the planet and, at the same time, interfere with relations with its primary trading partner, the United States.

Presumably some Mexcan government could be conjured up radical enough to consider this, but it would still be too distant from this foreign ally to be any serious threat to a nuclear power just across the Rio Grande. The United States would probably apply limited economic sanctions and wait patiently for the buzz in the new relationship to wear off.

纵观历史，墨西哥从未与任何讨厌的欧洲或亚洲国家结盟，所以现在也没有动机这么做。与一个远在地球另一端的国家结盟，对墨西哥没有任何好处，但却会妨碍其与主要贸易伙伴美国的关系。

也许，某个墨西哥政府会想出足够激进的办法来应对这个问题，但墨西哥离这个外国盟友太远了，对格兰德河对岸的核国家来说还压根构不成严重威胁。而美国可能会实施一些经济制裁，耐心等待新关系的热度慢慢消退。

Steven James

Jul 16

Mexco’s economy is pretty dependent on US trade and knows it. It is unlikely to poke the bear for no benefit or reason. It would have to be a very changed world for Mexco to do so, considering the USA has few compunctions about throwing around military might when it can find a reason. And it is right there. Neither Russia or China can do a thing to protect Mexco from the USA. Neither can project power to that area. Thus it would be a very poor geopolitical decision as well as an economic one. It would be most likely to result in pretty immediate regime change in Mexco, and it probably wouldn't need much American help, since the benefits of doing this would be obvious and Mexco is not the least corrupt nation around.

墨西哥的经济非常依赖美国贸易，他们对此非常清楚。没有好处，没有理由，它不可能无缘无故地激怒美国。考虑到美国只要找着一丝理由，就会理直气壮地出兵，那么墨西哥如果决定这么做，那么那时的世界绝对已经大不同了。俄罗斯和中国都无法保护墨西哥，让其免受美国的伤害。他们都无法在这里采取军事行动。因此，这会是一个非常糟糕的地缘政治决定，也是一个非常糟糕的经济决定。这极有可能立即导致墨西哥的政权更迭，而且美国都可能不太需要出手，因为这么做的好处是显而易见的，毕竟墨西哥也算不上不腐败。

Of course, if the USA had, for instance, unilaterally seized Baja Mexco and then spent several years occupying Northern Mexcan states with “volunteers” and then at last invaded the country from all directions because those volunteers were getting shot at and announced an intention to just annex the country because it was conquered by them in 1849, well, then there might be some equivalence.

And Mexco would do well to seek assistance wherever it could get it, although that would have to come from the South to avoid the blockade of the Mexcan coast.

当然，如果美国攻下墨西哥下加利福尼亚，然后花几年时间让“志愿军”占领墨西哥北部州，最后以这些志愿者遭到枪击为由围攻入侵这个国家，并宣布由于墨西哥曾在1849年被美国攻占，所以美国现在要吞并墨西哥。

墨西哥要好好向一切有能力的国家寻求援助，但须得从南面努力，避开对墨西哥海岸的封锁。

Susan Maneck

Retired Associate Professor of History at Jackson State University (2001–present)May 25

What do you mean by a coalition? Do you mean a mutual defense pact like NATO? If they did it would not be in our rights to do anything about it. However, if Russia tried to put nuclear weapons on Mexcan soil like they did in Cuba, that might well change things. So far when it comes to Latin America the US instead supported coups rather than directly invade countries. That’s what happened in Chile when they had a de ocratically elected co unist leader.

你说的联盟是什么意思？像北约那样的共同防御协定吗？即便他们真这么做了，我们也无能为力啊。不过，如果俄罗斯想在墨西哥的土地上部署核武器，就像他们在古巴做的那样，那就不一样了。到目前为止，当事关南美洲时，美国会选择支持政变，而非直接入侵国家。智利就是个现成的例子，那时他们通过民主选举选出了一个领导人。

Kien Choong

Lives in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2018–present)Apr 29

The question reflects binary thinking of the “either you are with us or against us” type. The rest of the world (including China!) doesn’t want to take sides, and in fact wants to maintain good relations with everyone, including the US and Europe.

It’s this binary thinking that is taking the world down the path to a future world war. It’s not too late to get off this path, but we must not “buy into” binary thinking. We must expose the illegitimacy of binary thinking and ask why countries like Mexco has to choose a side.

这个问题说明了“不是朋友就是敌人”的二元思维。世界上其他国家(包括中国在内) 都不想选边站队，事实上，大家都想彼此保持良好关系，包括美国和欧洲。

正是这种二元思维将世界带向通往未来世界大战的道路。现在摒弃这条路还不晚，但我们绝不能“接受”二元思维。我们必须揭露二元思维的荒唐之处，问问自己为什么像墨西哥这样的国家就一定要选择选边站队呢。

Ryan Curtin

Associate in Criminal Justice, Southern New Hampshire University (Graduated 2022)May 17

As an American with no Mexcan heritage, my view may be different than some. The US and Mexco have a very tight relationship. Much like Canada and the US just featuring a different set of issues. Mexco could never sustain embargo and other non militarized intervention that the US could implement. However, at the very least, it would be another “front” that the US would have to deal with in a greater conflict against world powers.

作为一个没有墨西哥血统的美国人，我的观点可能跟别人不太一样。美国和墨西哥的关系非常紧密，就像加拿大和美国，只是面临的问题不尽相同。墨西哥永远无法招架得了美国可能实施的禁运和其他非军事化干预。但是，至少，这是美国在与世界大国发生更大规模冲突时不得不面对的另一条“战线”。

John Biles

Historian (2005–present)May 4

Mexco hasn’t been run by an idiot since they finally chased off Santa Anna for good.

Mexco would not be dumb enough to ally with China and Russia, who can do nothing for it and only offer it trouble.

墨西哥自从赶走了桑塔·安纳之后就不用再忍受白痴领导人之苦了。

墨西哥不会蠢到跟中国和俄罗斯结盟，这两个国家对墨西哥没有任何助益，只会给墨西哥带来种种麻烦。

（译者：Joyceliu）