印度要如何成为第一个经济规模达到100万亿的国家

How could India be the first 100 trillion$ economy in the world?

印度要如何成为第一个经济规模达到100万亿的国家？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Ramamurthy Guruvayurappan

Author has 16.7K answers and 22.2M answer viewsSep 11

India could never become 100 Trillion. Economy can at best grow only at 7 to 8%-

India is a vibrant de ocracy and highly corrupt nation - Though corruption has come down at union government level, states are rampant with corruption-

I will be hugely surprised if it manages to clock 10% growth -

How it can become? Change of hearts of politicians and bureaucrats to become clean administrators, which can never happen -

印度的经济规模永远都不可能达到100万亿。经济增长率最多也只有7%到8%。

印度是一个充满活力的国家，也是一个高度腐败的国家。尽管中央政府层面的腐败已经有所收敛，但各邦的腐败现象依然十分猖獗。

如果经济增长率能达到10%，我是不太敢相信的。

如何才能实现100万亿的经济规模？除非政治家和官僚洗心革面，洁身自好，否则这是绝无可能的。

Jagabandhu Mishra

Ph.D from Utkal University, Bhubaneswar (Graduated 1981)Author has 5.5K answers and 5.3M answer viewsSep 10

It may be almost impossible for any country to achieve such a feat in any time to come. India can be a $10 trillion economy in future. But with the present geographical area and mineral resources, it may be impossible to reach such an astronomical figure in future. USA, China, Japan, Germany, India , UK and France can not even match that figure in future togather.

地球上的任何国家都几乎不可能取得这样的成就。印度未来有可能成为10万亿美元的经济体。但以目前的国土面积和矿产资源，100万亿这样的天文数字是遥不可及的目标。就算把美国、中国、日本、德国、印度、英国和法国加在一起也达不到。

Pramod Singh Tomar

Sep 11

It Cannot be atleast 50 years tak to nahin. Because we are currently $3.5 trillion dollar economy and we are talking about 100. so for this to achieve we need to grow 30 fold which a CAGR of more than 7% after adjusting Inflation which is almost impossible for 50 years in a Row. you can achieve 8% for 10–15 years but thereafter you can hardly achieve 3–5%. See US, UK, Germany, Japan they are raced initially but then their economy became stagnant or grown with a very low pace.

至少需要50年的时间。印度目前的经济规模只有3.5万亿美元，但我们现在讨论的数字可是100万亿呐。所以，要实现这一目标，经济需要增长30倍，调整通胀后的复合年增长率必须高于7%，但要连续50年保持这个增长率几乎是不可能的。印度也许可以达到8%的经济增速并保持10-15年，但此后要达到3-5%都非常困难。看看美国、英国、德国和日本吧，他们也曾一路领先，但后来开始停滞不前，增长速度非常缓慢。

PERSONAL FINANCE

Sundaramany Mani

Author has 6.5K answers and 3.4M answer viewsSun

You ask all other economies to stay stagnant or de-grow with you alone growing for the next several decades :)

除非你命令其他经济体未来几十年内原地立定，甚至向后转，让印度独自发展，不然绝无可能。

Mahadevan Kv

Former Self Employed projects and business consultant (1996–2015)Author has 2.5K answers and 813.4K answer viewsSep 10

Imagination knows no boundaries. You or for that matter anybody could dream like this. It will be a painstaking dedicated journey to reach that goal.

想象是无国界的。谁都可以做这样的美梦。但向着这个目标前进的旅程注定是艰辛的。

Thirumaran

Lived in IndiaAuthor has 395 answers and 120.3K answer viewsSep 10

India is on course to turn into the world's third-biggest economy after the U.S. furthermore, China by 2030, says a report.

一份报告称，2030年印度将成为仅次于美国和中国的世界第三大经济体。

The Indian economy will develop at normal genuine Gross domestic product development of 6% from 2022-2030. It supplanted the U.K. to turn into the world's fifth biggest economy as far as market trade rates in Spring end.

we change India's development direction as projected by the OECD, in light of sensible suppositions in regards to steady capital-yield proportion (ICOR), and reserve funds and speculation rates, India would arise as the biggest economy by the 2050s

India will recover 6th situation from France one year from now and become third biggest economy in 2031, after a year the recently anticipated

从2022年到2030年，印度经济将以6%的GDP增速持续发展。明年第一季度结束时，印度将取代英国成为全球第五大经济体(按市场贸易总额计算)。

如果按照经合组织的预测调整印度的发展方向，根据稳定的资本收益率比例(ICOR)、储备基金和投机率的合理假设，印度将在2050年代成为全球最大的经济体。

一年后，印度将从法国手中接过第六名的位置，并在2031年成为第三大经济体。

Sayan Mukherjee

Political Observer Since 2016Author has 610 answers and 24.9M answer views2y

Can India become a 5 trillion $ economy in 5 years as stated by Piyush Goyal?

Let's analyze the situation after the scenario of COVID-19 pandemic.

我们可以分析一下新冠肺炎后的局势。

In the 4 years of remaining BJP (NDA) rule, 1 year will be consumed to revive the economy, in the rest 3 years India's GDP must grow at a rate of 12-13% (after adjusting inflation of 4%).

在人民党余下的4年执政期内，他们计划用1年时间来重振经济，在剩下的3年里，印度的GDP必须以12-13%的速度增长(调整了4%的通胀后)。

Is it possible?

If we consider historical records of China and South Korea, then we can say it is possible. In 2003-07, China's GDP growth rate was 11.7% and in 1983-87, South Korea's GDP growth rate was 11%.

可能吗？

参考一下中国和韩国的历史表现，这是有可能的。2003-2007年，中国的GDP增长率为11.7%，1983-1987年，韩国的GDP增长率为11%。

How is it possible?

India must take care of unemployment and work in the direction to provide jobs to youths.

如何实现？

印度必须解决失业率问题，努力为年轻人提供工作岗位。

India should invite the foreign companies moving out of China, to shift their manufacturing base to India.

Promote policies like ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat' and ‘Make in India' on a bigger scale.

We should take the initiative of ‘Vocal for Local' seriously to give local brands a chance in Indian market.

印度可以向外资企业伸出橄榄枝，让他们搬离中国，把制造基地转移到印度。

继续大力推行“印度自造”和“印度制造”等政策。

认真对待“为本土发声”的活动，给本土品牌在印度市场发展的机会。

India should support MSME and Agriculture sector.

The Government should make easy business policies, like tax relief, for foreign companies to attract them, which in turn will generate employment.

India should introduce easy loan facilities to encourage new businesses.

India should focus on becoming an export based economy from consumption based economy.

Let's see how the Modi-Shah rule performs in the remaining 4 years.

印度应该扶持中小企业和农业发展。

政府应该制定税收减免等提高经商便利度的政策，吸引外资企业，创造就业。

印度应该引入宽松的贷款机制，鼓励创业。

印度应该致力于将消费型经济转变为出口型经济。

莫迪政府在剩下的4年里会如何表现，我们拭目以待。

Lucifer

B.com from DAV Public School, Jasola Vihar, New Delhi (Graduated 2022)Sep 18

India ought to become 100 trillion economy if people of India do there work with honesty than it is matter of time that india would be a leading country

如果印度人能努力工作，印度是应该成为100万亿经济体的，印度成为领头羊只是个时间问题

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

LawyerAuthor has 17.1K answers and 398.8M answer views1y

How can India be a $20 trillion economy?

By pegging the USD to INR rate at 10.70 INR = 1 USD, closing the exchanges, we can get our economy to $ 20.6 Trillion overnight!!!

It will last for 2 -12 days before the Chaos descends!!!!

通过把美元与印度卢比的汇率固定在10.70，停止外汇交换，我们的经济一夜之间就能达到20.6万亿美元的规模

可以维持2 -12天，然后开始天下大乱！

A P Chandrasekhar

Author has 65 answers and 22.5K answer viewsUpdated Sep 19

India has potential to reach 100trillion dollers Econamy.But it depends on our foreign policy and the leadership'. If all sectors works with out any political influence (with productivity)then it might be reach the target.first we have to concentrate on investments, exports (from all sectors,includimg human resources), environment ,. Before that we have to strengthen(transition ) our energy sector ( with coal, hydrogen, atomic power green fuel like methanol ,ithonal etc and renewable energy).

印度经济是有潜力达到100万亿美元规模的。但取决于我们的外交政策和领导人。”如果所有产业都能不受政治干预，提高生产力，这个目标是可能实现的。首先，我们必须集中精力发展投资、出口(包括人力资源的所有行业)、环境等。在此之前，我们必须升级(转型)能源行业(煤、氢、原子能、绿色燃料如甲醇、钍等和可再生能源)。

Debasis Dutta

Former Regional Sales Head at Siemens India (2006–2019)Author has 656 answers and 87K answer views1y

How can India be the 5 trillion economy in the world? What steps will we need to take?

When our respected PM told this 5 Trillion Dollar Economy in 2019 he did not mention it is Real GDP or nominal.

Economist around the world only consider real GDP over nominal. Taking this as the cue our Real GDP was around 2.6 Trillion Dollar in 2019 . Our growth was around 5% - 6%. In the first quarter our growth came down to 4.1% which was the lowest in 11 years !

Pandemic came and we are into recession ! World bank predicted we will touch negative growth this year .

In order to reach such 5 trillion Dollar dream by 2024 we have to grow at least 14% ever year ! Without concrete plan this will remain as a day dream !

当我们尊敬的总理2019年提到5万亿美元的目标时，并没有讲清楚统计口径是实际GDP还是名义GDP。

世界各地的经济学家只看实际GDP而不是名义GDP。2019年印度的实际GDP约为2.6万亿美元。我们的增长率在5% - 6%左右。第一季度，我们的增长率降至4.1%，是11年来的最低水平！

疫情爆发了，我们陷入了衰退！世界银行预测今年经济将出现负增长。

为了在2024年实现5万亿美元的梦想，我们每年至少需要增长14% ！没有具体的计划，这个目标就是白日做梦！

Parmar Nikhil

Reader, Writer and Painter at My Home. Author has 190 answers and 358.4K answer views2y

By when India can become a 5 trillion economy?

India is the 5th largest economy by nominal GDP and 3th largest by PPP as of now. Current GDP is about 3.2 trillion dollar.

When Modi govt came in power they set the target to make India 5 trillion economy by 2024. But now India's economy is trembling. There are many problems which India are facing and these became a hurdle in the path of achieving 5 Trillion economy.

按名义GDP计算，印度是世界第五大经济体，按购买力平价计算，印度目前是世界第三大经济体，GDP大约是3.2万亿美元。

莫迪政府上台时，提出印度经济规模2024年达到5万亿美元的目标。但现在印度的经济岌岌可危。印度面临着许多问题，威胁着这个目标。

India's economy is now trembling, many reasons are behind this. And we cannot make Govt responsible for this alone. But yes, there is an obligation on the Govt to utilize the resources for the growth and prosperity of the nation, however There is no Denying tha fact that Govt is proven wrong to revive the economy.

India have an access population. Many people view the population as a hurdle in the path of achieving growth. But no, India have more younger population, more younger population means more work force, if Govt utilize these mammoth work force in right manner it would definitely grow high.

印度经济现在岌岌可危，背后有很多原因。我们不能让政府单独背锅。但是，政府有义务促进国家的繁荣发展。但不可否认的事实是，印度政府在振兴经济方面是真的不行。

印度有庞大的人口。许多人认为人口问题是经济增长的障碍。但是，印度的年轻人口占比更多，更多的年轻人口意味着更多的劳动力，如果政府好好利用这庞大的劳动力，印度经济肯定会高速增长。

If I talk about core or important sectors for our economy such as agriculture, IT, automobile, Textile, Construction, Steel, cement etc. As far as these domains are concerned to our economy is very much dependent on these domain, for instance if you see agriculture and industry these both sectors are contributing more than 20% to the GDP. And these sectors are facing many troubles such as in agriculture farmers are facing the shortages of the cold storage, lack of transport facilities etc so the Govt should provide the facilities which help the farmer, instead of giving them 6000 Rs/year by PM-Kisan schemes. This won't resolve the problem that they are facing now. I firmly believe that until or unless these problems don't address meticulously farmers will continue to face the challenges to sell their agri goods into the market at right price and at right time.

印度经济的核心产业是农业、IT、汽车、纺织、建筑、钢铁、水泥等。我们的经济非常依赖这些产业，比如农业和工业对GDP的贡献都超过20%。这些产业面临许多问题：农民面临冷库短缺、运输工具不足等，所以政府应该为农民提供足够的生产设备，而不是通过PM-Kisan计划每年发放6000卢比。这笔钱解决不了他们现在面临的问题。我坚信，如果这些问题不彻底解决，农民就将继续面临农产品价格提不上去，运输时间过长的困局。

Manufacturing industry also have been a great contributing to the economy. It has slowed the trade. And that's why industry facing shortages of raw goods which they using to manufacture the final goods. So like this each and every sectors are facing some problems which govt should address meticulously.

制造业对经济也贡献很大，国际贸易受到影响。工业因此面临原料短缺的困局，无法加工成最终成品。每个行业都和制造业一样面临着一些问题，政府应该认真解决这些问题。

Another thing Govt should do to revive the economy and to make 5 trillion economy is that they should reduce tax on certain goods which is consumed majority by 50 to 55% poor population. So basically what will happen if tax will be reduce on certain product. The costumer will consume more product so demand will increase in the market. And when demand will increase then manufacturers will start to produce these goods more and when manufacturers will start producing more, more Labour force will required so this will provide the employment to the poeple, this is virtuous cycle in the economy which pay the way to the economy ultimately.

要振兴经济、实现5万亿美元的经济规模，政府应该做的另一件事是降低某些商品的税率，这些商品的主要消费对象是50%到55%的贫困人口。如果降低某些商品的税率，消费者会消费更多商品，市场的需求将得以增加，制造商因此开始生产更多的产品，从而雇佣更多的劳动力，提供更多的就业机会，带来经济的良性循环，铺平经济发展的道路。

And another aspect of our economy is our import and export. Our(india) export is about 330 billion $ and imports are about 514 billion $. So our imports are higher than that of export. Our majority importers are arab league, China, ASEAN countries, EU. And biggest concern is related to the Chinese export to India. Because China produce cheap products by recycling the plastic and other materials and dump these cheap low quality product into the territory of India. And our Indian manufacturer produce good quality of the products by keep in mind the standard and norms. So when the Chinese products are supplied into the market poeple purchase these goods over the Indian products bcz they find it economical. So ultimately it damage our market by benefiting the China. This is one of the reason behind our higher trade deficit with the China.

印度的出口额约为3300亿美元，进口额约为5140亿美元，也即进口高于出口。我们的主要进口国是阿拉伯，中国，东盟国家，欧盟。其中中国对印度的出口最引人关注。因为中国用回收的塑料和其他材料生产廉价低质的商品并倾销到印度。而印度厂商严格执行品质标准和规范，生产高质量的商品。所以当中国的低价产品进入印度市场时，人们会因为价格原因选择中国商品，中国因此受益。这是印度对中国贸易赤字不断上升的原因之一。

After looking at these data I don't think India will become 5 trillion economy by 2024. 2020 year is gonna be so tough for India. But we should not loss hope. Keep going with positive attitude. And always believe that something magical will happen.

我认为2024年印度的经济规模达到5万亿的可能性很低。对印度来说，2020年会非常艰难。但我们不应失去希望，保持积极的态度，永远相信奇迹总会发生。

Matthew Nghiem

Christian, but interested in other religionsAuthor has 60 answers and 3.3M answer viewsUpdated 6y

How long would it take for India's GDP to reach 10 trillion USD if growth is about 6-7 percent every year?

People say that it will be mid 2039 before India can catch up to China's current GDP but that isn't necessarily true. They appear to neglect currency appreciation. With good appreciation, India could catch up much earlier with good appreciation.

I notice that Indian nationals like to compare the two countries' economic growth. I say don't worry, India will get there. It is good to compare, but your primary focus should be improvement. Just because it doesn't measure up to China (a huge challenge in any case) doesn't mean you're not improving.

人们说印度要到2039年才能赶上中国目前的GDP，但这并不一定是真的。大家似乎忽视了货币升值的影响。如果卢比升值，印度可以更早赶上中国。

我发现印度人喜欢比较两国的经济增长。我认为无需担心，印度会实现10万亿目标的。作对比不是坏事，但应该更关注如何进步。没赶上中国(这是巨大的挑战)并不是就意味着没有进步。

Realistically, as China slows, investors are increasing looking overseas to change manufacturing operations. In this case, realistically, India would like attract much of that FDI potential, increasing at about 9-10% on average in my opinion for a long time (think 20 years). However, it has many rivals, like Vietnam who (yep you guessed it) have a corporate and work ethic culture similiar to China.

So therefore India will have to fight hard to become rich... which is what it is doing and rather successfully I might add.

实际上，随着中国经济的放缓，越来越多的投资者将目光投向海外，调整制造业布局。在这种情况下，印度希望吸引大部分的外国直接投资，在未来(假设20年)以每年平均9-10%的速度增长。但是印度有很多竞争对手，比如越南，越南人的企业文化和工作态度与中国十分相似。

因此，印度要富起来，需要极大的努力…印度现在正在努力，我认为成效斐然。

Lin ieyi

keen interest in EconomicsAuthor has 748 answers and 11.7M answer views5y

How can India be a $10 Trillion economy?

If we start from the year 2016 when India’s GDP was US$2.5 trillion (nominal)[1] , and assume a 7.5% GDP growth every year for the next 20 years, India’s GDP will cross the US$10 trillion mark in 2036, about 19 years from now.

This is also base on the assumption that India’s currency does not depreciate against the US dollar throughout the 19-year period.

如果我们从2016年开始算，那时印度的GDP是2.5万亿美元(名义GDP)，假设未来20年每年增长7.5%，印度的GDP将在2036年超过10万亿美元大关

这也是基于印度货币在未来19年期间对美元不贬值的假设前提上。

Satish Agrawal

Studied Master of Pharmacy at BITS Pilani, Hyderabad Campus (Graduated 2013)3y

Do you think India will become a $5 trillion economy by 2030?

Yes, why not?

I wish to put following points to support my agreement:

India’s present GDP value is 2.9 trillion $

Average GDP growth of India is 7% per year in last 3 years.

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

International Monetary Fund projects Indian economy to grow by over 7% growth per year