为什么印度很难形成庞大的中产阶级

Why is it difficult for India to form a large middle class?

为什么印度很难形成庞大的中产阶级？

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Varun Venkatasubramanian

Author has 834 answers and 21.7K answer viewsThu

One major reason is lack of sufficient large and medium scale enterprises. In most of the developed countries, about 70% of the workforce is employed in the formal sector while the remaining are employed in the informal sector and the MSMEs. In India, it's the opposite. Since higher incomes are conducive to creating a larger middle class, the high number of MSMEs is proving to be a hindrance as the larger enterprises are in a better position to give higher wages and salaries.

造成这个现象的一个主要原因是印度的大中型企业数量太少。在大多数发达国家，约70%的劳动力受雇于规模企业，其余30%则受雇于中小微企业。但印度的情况正好相反。收入水平高才有助于形成规模较大的中产阶级，因为大企业更有能力提供更高的工资和薪金，事实证明中小微企业太多是个障碍。

Wares of the World

Senior manufacturing practitionerAuthor has 220 answers and 299.6K answer viewsThu

One of the most important decisions in the Indian central government budget in 2021 is to increase the proportion of foreign direct investment permits for Indian insurance companies from 49% to 74%. This is the first time that India allows foreign insurance companies. According to the Business Standard, the 2021 budget will increase the FDI license of the insurance industry to 74%, and the whole industry will cheer.

2021年印度中央政府预算中最重要的决定之一，就是将印度保险公司的外国直接投资许可比例从49%提高到74%。这是印度首次允许外国保险公司进入。据《商业标准》预测，2021年预算案将把保险行业的外国直接投资许可率提高到74%，整个行业将欢呼雀跃。

However, more than a year later, it is still too early for people to find this joy. On September 12, 2022, the Times of India published a thought-provoking fact survey: although Modi's government held shares with foreign investors as an inducement, there were few "takers" and transnational insurance companies were not interested in the Indian market.

What is more worrying is that this is not an example: in recent years, more and more foreign investors have decided to give up before entering the Indian market. According to Indian government data, nearly 3000 foreign companies have terminated their business in India since 2014.

但是一年多过去了，人们发现他们高兴地太早了。2022年9月12日，《印度时报》发表了一份发人深省的事实调查：尽管莫迪政府以持有外国投资者的股份为诱饵，但“买家”寥寥无几，跨国保险公司对印度市场也不感兴趣。

更令人担忧的是，这并非特例：近年来，越来越多的外国投资者在进入印度市场前决定放弃。根据印度政府的数据，自2014年以来已有近3000家外国企业终止了在印度的业务。

These include Ford and General Motors, the American automobile manufacturers, Docomo, the Japanese mobile phone operator, Holcim, the world's largest cement manufacturer, Carrefour, the French retail giant, and the retail banking departments of Citibank, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland.

From 2019 to 2021, the share of global FDI flowing into India will decline from 3.4% to 2.8%.

这些企业包括美国汽车制造商福特和通用汽车、日本移动电话运营商多科莫、全球最大水泥制造商豪瑞、法国零售巨头家乐福，以及花旗银行、巴克莱和苏格兰皇家银行的零售银行部门。

从2019年到2021年，流入印度的全球外国直接投资占比从3.4%将至2.8%。

This trend is caused by multiple factors. The main problem is that India's domestic demand is insufficient, and it is not attractive to transnational corporations. It is not worth the continued investment of transnational corporations in India. This leads to one of the main problems of India's development: the lack of a large number of middle classes.

这个结果是由多种因素造成的。主要问题是印度国内需求疲软，对跨国公司没有吸引力。跨国公司不愿继续在印度投资。这导致了印度发展的一个主要问题：中产阶级规模有限。

The middle class refers to the population structure between the high-yield class and the low-income class in society, which is usually defined by occupation: people who have white collar jobs or successful enterprises. The middle class is also crucial to the development of modern countries, because it promotes the demand for goods and services and provides an important tax base.

中产阶级是指社会中介于高收入阶层和低收入阶层之间的人口结构，通常用职业来定义：白领工作者或成功企业家。中产阶级对现代国家的发展也至关重要，因为它能促进社会对商品和服务的需求，也是重要的缴税群体。

Because the "Indian middle class" is not precisely defined, its scale is a bit difficult to determine. However, by any definition, the size of the Indian middle class seems small. In 2015, a Pew Research Center study found that in 2011, the middle class in India (defined as people earning between $10 and $20 a day) accounted for only 3% of the country. According to the Indian government data released in 2022, as low as 25000 rupees per month, the salary will be among the top 10% of the Indian population.

This means that the middle class consumer market in India is very small. Only 3% of Indians own five basic consumer goods: cars, televisions, refrigerators, air conditioners and computers.

由于对“印度中产阶级”的定义不精确，因此规模很难界定。但不论如何定义，印度中产阶级的规模似乎都很小。2015年，皮尤研究中心的一项研究发现，2011年，印度的中产阶级(日收入在10至20美元之间的人)仅占全国人口的3%。根据印度政府2022年公布的数据，月薪仅25000卢比的人就能跻身印度人口前10%。

这意味着印度的中产阶级消费市场非常小。只有3%的印度人拥有五种基本消费品：汽车、电视、冰箱、空调和电脑。

What is more disturbing is that the situation of the Indian middle class is getting worse. The World Inequality Report points out that economic liberalization has made the high-yield class richer, but it has not benefited the middle class in India. The report wrote: "Although the top 1% of the population benefited from the economic reform to a large extent, the growth of the low-income groups was relatively slow, and poverty still exsted, even the small middle class was' relatively poor '."

What is worse is the poor prevention and control of the epidemic in India. It is estimated that the unexpected closure has shrunk India's middle class to one-third of its pre epidemic level. In absolute terms, this means that 32 million Indians have fallen out of the middle class.

更令人不安的是，印度中产阶级的现状正在恶化。《世界不平等报告》指出，经济自由化使高收益阶层更加富有，却没能令印度的中产阶级受益。报告写道:“虽然1%的顶层富裕人口在很大程度上受益于经济改革，但低收入群体的增长相对缓慢，贫困现象依然存在，就连规模较小的中产阶级也是‘相对贫困’。”

雪上加霜的是印度政府对疫情的防控令人失望。据估计，印度的中产阶级人数因此减少到疫情前的三分之一。按绝对数字计算，这意味着3200万印度人已经掉出了中产阶级队伍。

In theory, the middle class is the tax base that boosts modern economic construction. However, in India, the middle class is too small, and the Indian government seems to have abandoned this path, or even tried to raise enough funds through income tax. On the contrary, the focus seems to be on indirect taxes, such as goods and services tax, which is a regressive tax paid equally by every Indian, whether they are landless workers or Gautam Adani, the newly richest man in Asia.

理论上中产阶级是推动现代经济建设的税基。但印度的中产阶级人数太少，印度政府似乎已经放弃了这条路径，或者通过所得税筹集足够的资金。相反，他们将目光转向间接税，比如商品和服务税，这是每个印度人都要缴纳的税种，无论他们是失地工人还是亚洲新首富高塔姆•阿达尼。

Of course, as far as the middle class itself is concerned, the insufficient number and sluggish growth of the Indian middle class is bad news. However, what is more disturbing is that this is also bad news for India itself, because in the modern industrial era, the middle classes in various countries promote their own economic development.

In 2008, the economists Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo pointed out in their paper that the special economic role of the middle class is usually measured by three factors: the birth of entrepreneurs, the accumulation of human capital and savings, and ultimately the stimulation of consumer demand, which forms a virtuous circle and makes everyone in the economy richer.

当然，就中产阶级本身而言，中产阶级数量不足、增长缓慢绝非好事，这对印度本身也是坏事一桩。因为在现代工业时代，各国的中产阶级推动着本国的经济发展。

2008年，经济学家Abhijit Banerjee和Esther Duflo在论文中指出，衡量中产阶级在经济发展中发挥的作用通常有三个方面：企业家的诞生、人力资本和储蓄的积累，以及最终消费需求的刺激，这形成了一个良性循环，让每个人都越来越富有。

Param Vishnu

Author has 6.4K answers and 507.8K answer viewsThu

They are the traitor class in society, not loyal,trustworthy. Filthy rich are using them as pawns, bleeders of the poor,needy. In management they act as conduits of corrupt. Rich,poor, helped each other,before independence. After 1947, this class was created, they passed out all secret meetings files to Britishers,Dutch, yes till today too.

他们是社会的叛徒，不忠诚，不值得信赖。卑鄙的有钱人拿他们当棋子，榨取穷人的血汗。他们在管理层充当腐败的通道。独立之前，富人穷人互帮互助。1947年后出现了中产阶层，他们把所有的秘密会议文件都发给了英国人，荷兰人，是的，直到今天还是如此。

Shambavi Jha

Call Center Executive at Concentrix (2022–present)Author has 421 answers and 415K answer viewsThu

India already has Huge middle class of 500 million who have PP Power of 12000 $

印度目前拥有5亿人口的庞大的中产阶级，他们拥有12000美元的购买力。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

LawyerAuthor has 17.2K answers and 401.9M answer views1y

Is it true that India’s middle class has become lower middle class in the past few months?

No No

Thats exaggeration.

Family Median Income has to drop by 55% or more over a 24 month period before one can be regarded Lower Middle Class from Middle Class.

On date the Median Income is still rising, but very slowly. Yet Bad inflation is rising more rampantly and so Disposable Income, Purchasing power, Consumer Spending are all decreasing.

不不，

这太夸张了。

家庭收入中位数必须在24个月的时间里减少55%甚至更多，才可能从中产阶级跌落中产阶级下层。

迄今为止，中位数收入仍在增长，虽然增长非常缓慢。但通货膨胀正在疯狂地上升，所以可支配收入、购买力和消费支出都在下降。

Indias middle class are no longer growing like they used to.

In 2010 - 24.7% of Indias Population was Middle Class and in 2020 it was expected that 55% of the Population would be middle class. Yet in 2020, only 33.4% are Middle Class. From 2014–2021 the rise has been from 28.8% to 31.6% from 2014–2017 and only 31.6% to 33.4% over 4 years.

印度的中产阶级不再像过去那样增长。

2010年，24.7%的印度人口是中产阶级，之前人们预计2020年会有55%的人口成为中产阶级。但在2020年，这个比例仅为33.4%。从2014年到2021年间，2014—2017年的增幅为28.8%—31.6%，后4年间仅从31.6%增至33.4%。

Similarly in 2010, Indian Middle class paid 44.7% of their Income on Taxes (Direct plus Indirect).

In 2010, Indian Economy had a Consumer Spending Power of $ 1.586 Trillion which was around 96.3% of GDP.

2010年，印度中产阶级44.7%的收入被用来缴税(直接加间接)。

2010年，印度经济的消费能力为1.586万亿美元，约占GDP的96.3%。

It was expected that this would rise to 150% GDP by 2020 or $ 4.14 Trillion. Instead today its just 1.90 Trillion or 68.8% GDP.

Most of the Spending is by the Middle Class.

当时人们预计到2020年，这一数字将上升到GDP的150%，即4.14万亿美元。但现在只有1.90万亿美元，占GDP的68.8%。

大部分消费来自中产阶级。

So the Middle Class has been ripped apart from 2010–2020 and especially from 2014–2021

But they are still not bad enough to crash one level below.

Still with these Illustrious Gentlemen in charge, that day may also come.

因此，从2010年到2020年，特别是从2014年到2021年，中产阶级受到了严重冲击。

但还没有严重到跌落下一个阶层。

不过在这些大老爷们的领导下，也许早晚有这么一天。

Subodh Mathur

Ph.D in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Graduated 1980)Author has 1.4K answers and 17M answer views2y

Are middle-class people disappearing from India?

No. they are actually increasing as a share of the population. In the old days, there were only a limited number of middle class people. The percentage share has increased dramatically, particularly in the last 40 years. Many families have moved above the poverty line, and many have moved from close to the poverty line to quite above the poverty line.

印度的中产阶级并没有慢慢消失。实际上，他们在人口中所占的比例一直在增加。过去，印度中产阶级人口不多。但这个阶级的人口急剧增多，特别是在过去40年间。许多家庭摆脱了贫困，还有许多家庭从接近贫困线跃升至贫困线以上。

Gaston Grégoire

Carbon-based life form temporarily roaming the earth.5y

What separates upper class from middle class and middle class from lower class?

Lower class — you sell your body for a living,

Middle class — you sell your brain for a living,

Upper class — you buy and benefit from the whole.

下层社会，靠卖力气谋生，

中产阶级，靠卖脑子谋生，

上层阶级，靠花钱、投资获益为生。

Lakshmi Ramachandran

Ph.D in English Literature, University of Madras (Graduated 1997)Author has 3.4K answers and 1.4M answer views3y

Why does India have such a small middle class?

There is a formula for creating a middle class. You need to garner some kind of education beyond just literacy. And then you need healthcare so that you and the family that nurtures you can stay alive and healthy long enough for you to get a job and start getting middle class. Sickness can very quickly drag you down into poverty.

Since India does not really provide these two services properly, the masses remain poor and the middle class remains small.

中产阶级的建立是有定式的。你必须获得良好的教育，不是认得几个字就行。你还需要医疗条件，这样你和长辈才能活得长寿健康，供你找到一份工作，开始跻身中产阶级。疾病会很快让你陷入贫困。

因为印度在这两方面做得不好，百姓大多还很贫困，所以中产阶级规模仍然很小。

Kanchana Lamani

Lives in India (1969–present)Author has 11.8K answers and 5.1M answer views3y

Do you think that the middle class is growing in India?

Actually, India right now is undergoing a transition & transformation because after 2014 we have had so many internal policy changes like Demonetization, GST, digital payments etc that one cannot make out if one is suffering or growing.

事实上，印度现在正在进行过渡和转型，因为2014年以来，我们国内政策变化太大了，比如废钞令、商品及服务税、数字支付等，印度经济发展究竟是好是坏，很难判定。

PMGowindan Nampoothiri

MA in Economics & Banking, University of Kerala (Graduated 1971)Author has 35K answers and 40.5M answer views2y

What is middle-income?

There are hundreds of studies on Classification of population in India .I have made an average of many such studies and classified as under -

对于印度人口分类的研究多如牛毛，我把这些研究归类如下：

Assumption -Family size is 4

Net Worth or Assets not taken into consideration

It is based on annual projected income only

假设这是一个四口之家

不考虑净资产

只考虑家庭年收入