乌克兰战争：巴基斯坦面临的威胁和机遇

Ukraine war: threats and opportunities for Pakistan

乌克兰战争：巴基斯坦面临的威胁和机遇

The Global Economy is transitioning to a new multipolar world order, the most significant shift in the global balance of power since the second world war. The Russia–Ukraine war has accelerated this transition that was already underway with the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries rising contribution to global production and trade, outstrip the growth in the US and EU economies in the last decade.

This metamorphosis offers opportunities for emerging markets, including Pakistan, to open trade and investment ties with neighbours and other regional economies. However, significant threats have emerged that limit our ability to make independent foreign, economic and energy security policies.

目前，全球经济正在向一个新的多极世界秩序过渡，这是自第二次世界大战以来全球各方势力平衡的一次最重大的转变。俄罗斯和乌克兰的战争加速了这一转型，金砖四国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）对全球生产和贸易的贡献不断增加，超过了美国和欧盟经济在过去10年的增长。

这种转变为包括巴基斯坦在内的新兴市场提供了与邻国和其他地区经济体开展贸易和投资的机会。但目前出现的重大威胁限制了我们制定独立的外交、经济和能源安全政策的能力。

The most prominent threat is the balance of payment crisis, with Pakistan facing the risk of sovereign default on external debt repayments. The International Monetary Fund’s bailout has helped stabilise the economy and avert the immediate risk of default. Nevertheless, it seemingly comes at a cost, with Pakistan being unable to secure oil from Russia at concessional prices, which India, China and Bangladesh have successfully done to shield their population from the price hike spiral.

The economic opportunities of the new multipolar world order are enormous for Pakistan. The challenge, however, is how we pursue these opportunities diplomatically and strategically in line with our national interests, particularly given our dependence on international multilateral financial institutions, predominantly under the influence of the West.

最突出的威胁是国际收支危机，巴基斯坦面临外债主权违约的风险。国际货币基金组织的紧急救助稳定了经济，避免了迫在眉睫的违约风险。但这也是需要付出代价的，巴基斯坦无法以优惠的价格从俄罗斯获得石油，而印度、中国和孟加拉国则成功地获得石油优惠价格，使本国民众免受油价飙升的影响。

新的多极世界秩序给巴基斯坦带来了巨大的经济机会。然而，我们面临的挑战是，我们如何在符合我们国家利益的外交和战略上寻求这些机会，特别是考虑到我们对国际多边金融机构的依赖，主要受西方的影响。

This will require forging stronger economic ties with emerging economies that offer Pakistan complementarity in terms of trade and market opportunities for our goods and services while enhancing our cooperation and relationship with exsting superpowers.

The new emerging world order is again driven by the need for energy and food security, with more countries like China and India working to secure their energy supplies even at the cost of antagonising the western superpowers.

这将需要与新兴经济体建立更紧密的经济联系，为巴基斯坦的商品和服务提供贸易和市场机会方面的互补，同时加强我们与现有超级大国的合作和关系。

新兴的世界秩序还受到能源和粮食安全需求的推动，更多像中国和印度这样的国家正努力确保自己的能源供应，甚至不惜得罪西方超级大国。

We, in Pakistan, can’t remain aloof from this new emerging global world order. We must reevaluate our external affairs and consider repositioning ourselves politically, which will directly impact our economic policies going forward. Given how quickly the global winds of change are blowing, we will need to act swiftly on the foreign policy front or risk falling behind and thereby jeopardising our shared vision of a prosperous, independent and secure Pakistan.

Indeed, foreign policy decisions are intertwined with economic policies, requiring strong coordination and collaboration between the Ministry of Finance and the Foreign Office to advance our common goals. The ruling establishment will need to accept this reality and deploy all hands on deck to get our balance of payments in order and place Pakistan on a new path of inclusive and sustainable growth.

我们巴基斯坦人无法在这个新兴的全球世界秩序中独善其身。我们必须重新审视我们的外交事务，重新考虑我们的政治定位，这将直接影响我们今后的经济政策。鉴于全球变革之风吹得如此之快，我们需要在外交政策方面迅速采取行动，否则就可能落于人后，从而影响我们建立繁荣、独立和安全的巴基斯坦的共同愿景。

事实上，外交政策的决定与经济政策密不可分，财政部和外交部之间必须进行强有力的协调和合作，才能推进我们的共同目标。执政政府要接受这一现实，动员全体民众恢复我们的国际收支平衡，让巴基斯坦走上一条包容的、可持续增长的新道路。

Many emerging and advanced economies will look to have a more diversified energy mix moving forward that includes gas, nuclear, and renewable energy. Funding, particularly for large energy projects, will be accessible through both bilateral and multilateral partners. Nuclear energy, in particular, offers great promise as an alternate, low-carbon fuel for power generation that Pakistan should explore.

No country can progress without a working relationship with its neighbours. Unfortunately, Pakistan has been a victim of having estranged relationships with its bordering countries, but the shifting regional geo-political dynamics have important implications.

Russia already has strong ties with India. This may benefit us in one way or the other if Russia can use its influence to reduce India-Pakistan tensions in the interests of regional stability. China and India compete for regional supremacy and influence but maintain a working relationship for their mutual economic interests. China can, therefore, also play an important role in diffusing tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad.

许多新兴和发达经济体都在寻求更加多样化的能源组合，包括天然气、核能和可再生能源。我们可以通过双边和多边伙伴筹措资金，特别是为大型能源项目提供资金。尤其是核能的开发有望替代低碳发电燃料，给巴基斯坦提供了巨大的希望。

脱离了与邻国的良好合作关系，任何国家都无法取得发展。不幸的是，巴基斯坦一直苦于和邻国关系疏远，但不断变化的地区地缘政治动态具有重要的影响。

俄罗斯已经与印度建立了牢固的关系。如果俄罗斯能够利用其影响力缓和印巴紧张关系，维护地区稳定，这对于我们是好事。中国和印度争夺地区霸主的地位和影响力，但为了共同的经济利益依然维持合作关系。因此，中国也可以在化解印巴之间的紧张关系方面发挥重要作用。

In light of these changing global realities, Pakistan must reposition itself with a long-term view of where we want the country to go. We must leverage our geo-strategic location and rich endowment of natural resources and human capital to embark on a new path of sustained economic growth, using the full extent of foreign policy and economic tools at our disposal.

Proactive diplomatic efforts will be required to attract foreign investment and promote our goods and services in big and small markets. At the same time, our economic policymakers will need to prioritise export-led growth and a healthy external account balance that reduces our dependency on foreign debt. The time to act is now — and all stakeholders must come on board.

鉴于不断变化的全球局势，巴基斯坦必须重新定位，以长远的眼光看待未来的发展道路。我们必须利用地理战略位置和丰富的自然资源和人力资源，充分利用外交政策和经济工具，走上经济可持续增长的新道路。

积极的外交努力将吸引外国投资，并在全球市场推广我们的商品和服务。与此同时，我们的经济政策制定者需要优先考虑出口带来的经济增长和健康的国际收支账户，以减少我们对外债的依赖。现在是时候采取行动了，社会各界都必须积极加入。

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以下是巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

Mansur Ul Haque

Refreshing to note we can discuss other than Sahrifs, Zardari, Imran and establishment. Our freedom, defence, progress depend on good economy. We nation of 220 millions.How long we can keep begging others to help us financially? IMF and other friendly countries can not tell us the way to progress. We ourselves has to work for our destiny. Opportunies and difficulties are enormous. It is for us to select the right way.

令人耳目一新，我们终于可以谈一谈萨赫里夫、扎尔达里、伊姆兰和政府以外的问题了。我们的国防和发展都有赖于良好的经济形势。

我们国家有2.2亿人口。我们还能乞求别人的经济援助多长时间呢？

国际货币基金组织和其他友好国家无法为我们指明前进的道路。

我们自己必须为自己的命运而奋斗。机遇和困难都很大，我们必须选择正确的道路。

M. Emad

Pakistan's economy on the verge of collapse as Russia-Ukraine war continues:

俄乌战争再打下去，巴基斯坦的经济就濒于崩溃的边缘了。

Ali Sabir

... Pakistan can only succeed economocally by reducing its population. India, Russia and China have reduced theirs. Brazil I don't know about.

巴基斯坦只有通过减少人口才能取得经济上的成功。印度、俄罗斯和中国的人口都减少了。巴西我不清楚。

joker1

100 reasons for failing at every level.

每一个层面都能找出一百个失败的理由。

M. Emad

Ukraine war: 100% threats & 0% opportunities for Pakistan (except few million dollar arms sell).

乌克兰战争：对巴基斯坦是100%的威胁，0%的机会(除了几百万美元的武器销售收入)。

MATHEW AUGUSTINE

It is pathetic that Pakistan which is neighboring two of the biggest markets in the world is not benefitting from the enormous opportunity both offer. It has chosen to be slave to the 'Iron Brother' and enemy to the other. Wiser foreign policy should prevail, realizing that it is in Pakistan's interest to do business with India. Give geopolitics and the hawks who feast on it some rest.

巴基斯坦有两个邻国都是全球最大的市场，却没有从这个巨大商机中获益，太可悲了。它选择成为一个邻国“铁哥们”的奴仆，和另一个邻国的敌人。巴基斯坦应该制订更明智的外交政策，认识到与印度做生意是符合巴基斯坦利益的事。让地缘政治和依赖地缘政治的鹰派们消停吧。

ENGR Hamid Shafiq

@M. Emad , Pakistan never depend on Russia or Ukraine so How he verge on collapse?

@M. Emad , 巴基斯坦从来都没有依赖过俄罗斯或乌克兰，怎么会濒于崩溃？

SMD

@Ali Sabir, Agree with you that Pakistan needs to control population but let me say that India and BD are leading in the race. I am afraid that if India,s population multiply with the same speed then a time will come they will not have a place to sit on.

@Ali Sabir，我同意你的观点，巴基斯坦需要控制人口，但我要说的是，印度的人口问题更为严重。如果印度人口以目前的速度继续增长，总有一天他们会人满为患。

Fadeem

How the one can talk about Russian "growing power" after all it has done in Ukraine, Syria, Georgia ... Russia is a terrorist state. As simple as that. And to deal with Russia means to put yourself in a arian camp. It's so pathetic to see how Pakistan is trying to balance between "economic benefits" and mature and de ocratic stance.

俄罗斯在乌克兰、叙利亚、格鲁吉亚犯下这么多罪行，你居然还说俄罗斯是“不断壮大的强国”……俄罗斯是一个可怕国家。事实就是这么简单。与俄罗斯打交道意味着把自己置身于其阵营。巴基斯坦在“经济利益”和成熟的立场之间来回摇摆，真是可悲啊。

Ahsan Gul

Maybe opportunities for the PDM to fill up their bank accounts as our public has been poor for the last so many years.

也许官员们会有机会给他们的银行账户充值，但我们民众在过去这么多年里一直都很穷。

Ahsan Gul

@SMD, why you guys bring Other countries like India and Bangladesh into comparison with Pakistan? Both countries has per capita income much higher and a favorable balance of payments.

@SMD，为什么你们要拿印度和孟加拉国等国家和巴基斯坦做比较？这两个国家的人均收入都要比巴基斯坦高得多，国际收支也都很平衡。

Ghani K

As long as Pakistan toes America’s line, it won’t get any benefit from Russia-Ukrainian war

只要巴基斯坦还听美国的话，就不可能从俄乌战争中得到任何好处。

SaneMind1st

俄罗斯已经与印度建立了牢固的关系。如果俄罗斯能够利用其影响力缓和印巴紧张关系，维护地区稳定，这对我们是有利的。

中国和印度争夺地区霸权的地位和影响力，但为了共同的经济利益依然保持合作关系。

因此，中国也可以在化解印巴之间的紧张关系方面发挥重要作用。

所以你看，离开外部帮助，巴基斯坦啥事儿也干不成。

SaneMind1st

@SMD, That's why India wants Kashmir & GB back. Simple. Hope this answers your concerns.

@SMD，这就是印度想夺回克什米尔和吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦的原因。非常简单。希望这能解决你的疑问。

Anonymouseee

Excellent article. We must look at our own interests before anyone else’s. United we stand.

文章写得不错。我们必须优先考虑自己国家的利益。统一我们的立场。

The Truth Spy

@Ali Sabir, since when India recued its population?

@Ali Sabir, 印度什么时候开始减少人口了？

nouman

Nothing is going to happen with the corrupt people above our heads

只要巴基斯坦的官员腐败问题不解决，这些就只能是空谈。

Ravi Inder

" No Country can progress without a working relationship with its neighbours " More than 100 % right . We can work on TAPI and Iran Pakistan India Pipeline as first step .

“没有与邻国的良好合作关系，任何国家都无法发展”，说的太对了。我们要先努力建设土库曼斯坦-阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度(TAPI)和伊朗-巴基斯坦-印度两条天然气管道。

Frank Manuel

Pakistan is in a trap set by Pakistan. Pakistan has put itself in a bind that it could not buy even tomatoes from India. All that Russia or China could do to influence India vis a vie Pakistan relationship will fall to the perineal question no party can survive - “What about Kashmeer?” Unlikely Afghanistan will open up due to border issues with Pakistan. Iran will be tough due to religious issues and it’s sanctioned state. Pakistan has boxed itself in.

巴基斯坦落入了自己设下的陷阱。巴基斯坦让自己陷入困境，甚至无法从印度购买西红柿。

俄罗斯和中国为印巴关系所做的一切努力，都止步于同一个问题——“克什米尔如何处理？”

由于与巴基斯坦的边界问题，阿富汗不太可能开放。由于宗教问题，伊朗会很强硬，而且伊朗本身还是受制裁的国家。巴基斯坦把自己困住了。

Shahzad

We must learn a lesson from India and China trade relationships. They've a disputed land as well yet both have trade ties which mutually benefit them. If we can sort out ourselves then we can do the same with India.

我们必须从印度和中国的贸易关系中吸取教训。他们两国也存在争议领土，但两国建立了互惠互利的贸易关系。如果我们能解决自己的问题，那么我们也能解决印度的问题。

DEMAGOGUE

Pak is reportedly supplying Anti- Tank missiles to Ukraine, while Turkey supplies Drones. But still lot to be done in urging Russia to vacate Ukrain.

据报道，巴基斯坦向乌克兰提供反坦克导弹，而土耳其则提供了无人机。但在敦促俄罗斯撤出乌克兰方面，要做的工作远不止这些。

Chirag

Ties with India, why Pakistan should look ar Russia or China, Pakistan did stop trade with India now restart then India will.

巴基斯坦跟印度建立关系，为什么要依靠俄罗斯和中国，巴基斯坦终止了与印度的贸易，现在重新开始就是了，印度也会有所应对的。

Jamil Soomro, New York City

Outstanding article by Messrs.Jalil Abbas Jilani and Zafar Masud. The Writers have presented an amazing feasibility report on the efficacy of ideas which can be totally applicable in Pakistan's case. Well done.

贾利勒·阿巴斯·吉拉尼和扎法尔·马苏德的这篇文章写得是真好，他们提出了一份关于有效建议的可行性报告，这些想法完全适用于巴基斯坦的现况。真不错。

@Fadeem , You don't know what you are talking about. USA is the biggest terrorist in the world. Russia has warned NATO since 2014 about what they were doing in Ukraine but these psychopaths didn't listen. Now they are hel Ukraine directly and attacking Russia. Russia has to defend itself

@Fadeem，你压根都不知道自己在胡说些什么。美国才是全球最大的恐怖分子。

自2014年以来，俄罗斯就一直警告北约美国在乌克兰的所作所为，但这些疯子偏不听。

现在他们直接帮助乌克兰，攻打俄罗斯。俄罗斯必须自保。

A. Din

The present government is too dumb to think or make sensible decisions. It is called tunnel vision.

现在的巴基斯坦政府实在是太蠢了，没有独立思考能力，也做不出明智的决定。有个专业术语，叫做视野狭窄。

John The Baptist

Knowing Pakistan, it is likely to ignore the opportunities and focus on the threats....

我对巴基斯坦可太了解了，它极有可能忽视机会，只专注于威胁....

Peaceful Mind

Tremendous opportunity for Pakistan to extend contracts for construction and repair. After the conflict ends demand for construction will be massive...schools, hospitals, apartment, roads, shops everything will need to be rebuilt or repair. Pakistan has the manpower and skills to secure some of these contracts.

巴基斯坦会迎来建设和维修合约的巨大机遇。冲突结束后，会有极其巨大的建设需求……学校、医院、公寓、道路、商店等一切都需要重建或修缮。巴基斯坦有足够的人力和技术来完成部分合同。

Adil Malik

@Fadeem , May be Fadeem should review the history of how many countries Russia has invaded and occupied in coparison to his darling USA-UK-EU?

@Fadeem，也许你应该复习一下世界历史，看看俄罗斯入侵并占领过多少国家，再跟你亲爱的美英欧等国比一比？

Moe

The Pakistani economy is a purely consumption-based economy supported by US aid in the past followed by loans from IMF and China. Other than small arms export and garments, there are not many export earnings. Unless this model is drastically changed, the economy will collapse.

巴基斯坦的经济是纯粹的消费型经济，过去依赖于美国的援助，之后又得到了国际货币基金组织和中国的贷款。除了轻武器出口和服装，出口的外汇创收并不多。除非消费经济的模式彻底改变，否则巴基斯坦的经济必将崩溃。

Yasir

@Anonymouseee, lazy people of Pakistan ruled by the corrupt lot i.e. PDM. Nothing will change coz us people don’t want to change.

@Anonymouseee，巴基斯坦人都是被腐败官员统治的懒汉。一切都不会改变的，因为我们这些人并不想改变。