世界银行为何上调印度23财年的经济预测

Explained: Why World Bank upgraded India's economic forecast for FY23

世界银行为何上调印度23财年的经济预测

NEW DELHI: The World Bank on Tuesday revised upwards its GDP growth forecast from 6.5% for India to 6.9% for 2022-23, saying the country was showing higher resilience to global shocks.

In its latest India Development Update, the World Bank said the revision was due to higher resilience of the Indian economy to global shocks and better-than-expected second quarter numbers.

This comes as a breather since the World Bank had been lowering India's FY23 growth forecast in its World Economic Outlook report since the last 3 times.

In October, it had slashed India's GDP forecast by one percentage point to 6.5% from its June estimate of 7.5%, citing impact of ongoing war in Ukraine, rising global interest rates and high inflation.

This is the first upgrade of India's growth forecast by any international agency amid the global turmoil.

Here's what prompted World Bank to revise growth forecast:

周二，世界银行将印度2022-23财年的GDP增长预测从6.5%上调至6.9%，称该国对全球冲击显示出更强的抵御能力。

世界银行在最新的《印度发展现状》中表示，因为印度经济对全球冲击的抵御能力增强，第二季度数据好于预期，所以上调印度的经济预测。

这个结果让人松了一口气，因为世界银行已经在世界经济展望报告中三次下调了印度23财年的增长预期。

今年10月，该机构将印度的GDP预期从6月份的7.5%下调了一个百分点，至6.5%，理由是乌克兰战争、全球利率上升和高通胀的影响。

这是在全球经济动荡的背景下，国际机构首次上调印度经济增长预期。

以下是促使世界银行修改增长预测的原因：

* Fastest growing economy

Amid exsting global challenges like tightening monetary policy cycle, slowing growth and elevated commodity prices, Indian economy will experience lower growth in 2022-23 financial year compared to 2021-22.

Growth in first half of FY22-23 was supported by solid domestic demand and despite a challenging external environment, the report said.

*增长最快的经济体

在货币政策周期收紧、增长放缓和大宗商品价格上涨等挑战下，印度经济在2022-23财年的增速将低于2021-22财年。

报告称，尽管外部环境充满挑战，但22-23财年上半年的增长仍受到国内稳健需求的支撑。

* More insulated

The report titled 'Navigating the Storm' highlighted that Indian economy is relatively more insulated from global spillovers than other emerging markets.

"India is less exposed to international trade flows and relies on its large domestic market," it said.

High frequency indicators show that private consumption and investment continued to grow strongly in October.

Electricity generation and freight traffic remained firmly above pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, passenger vehicle sales and air passenger traffic grew sharply (albeit still below pre-pandemic levels).

*受影响较小

这份题为《在风暴中航行》的报告强调，印度经济相较于其他新兴市场而言，受全球溢出效应的影响较小。

高频指标显示，10月份私人消费和投资继续强劲增长。

发电量和货运量保持在疫情前的水平之上。同样，客运车销量和航空客运量大幅增长(尽管仍低于疫情前水平)。

* Sensex, Nifty at record high

After the slump witnessed in the initial days of Russia-Ukraine war, both sensex and Nifty have now bounced back driven by better-than-expected corporate earnings in the first quarter of

Besides, the return of foreign portfolio investors has also boosted investor sentiments.

* Sensex, Nifty都创历史新高

在经历了俄乌战争最初几天的暴跌之后，受利于今年第一季度公司盈利好于预期，Sensex和Nifty现在都已反弹。

此外，外国证券投资者的回归也提振了投资者的情绪。

* Financial sector growth

India’s financial sector has also deepened considerably over the years but is still recovering from a long period of stress and thus lags relative to other EMEs in terms of capital adequacy and NPL ratios.

Corporate and household debt has declined and remains benign but public debt has increased sharply, as a share of GDP — driven by the pandemic.

*金融业增长

印度金融业多年来也大幅受挫，但已慢慢恢复，因此在资本充足率和不良贷款率方面落后于其他新兴市场国家。

企业和家庭债务已经下降，但受疫情的影响，公共债务占GDP的比例急剧上升。

* Boost in private consumption, investment

The report noted that private consumption and investment grew strongly, despite high inflation and borrowing costs.

*私人消费和投资的复苏

报告指出，尽管通货膨胀和借贷成本高企，但私人消费和投资增长强劲。

* Rise in services output

The World Bank report also noted that the services sector expanded 9.3% year-on-year as compared to 10.5% in Q2 of FY23 on back of solid growth in business services, contact-intensive segments of retail trade, transport, hotels and restaurants, and public administration.

*服务业产出上升

世界银行的报告还指出，由于商业服务、零售贸易、运输、酒店和餐馆以及公共行政等接触密集型领域的稳健增长，服务业同比增长9.3%，而23财年第二季度为10.5%。

* Rupee better placed

Indian Rupee has fared relatively well in 2022 in comparison to other emerging market peers, senior World Bank economist Dhruv Sharma said.

"The rupee has depreciated just about 10% over the course of this year. But relative to many other emerging market peers, India hasn't fared that badly".

The rupee had plunged to a record low of 83 against the US dollar in mid-October, triggered by tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve and central banks in other advanced economies. However, it has now come off lows and is currently around 82 against the US dollar.

*卢比表现更好

世界银行高级经济学家Dhruv Sharma表示，跟其他新兴市场国家相比，印度卢比在2022年的表现相对较好。

“今年以来，卢比贬值了大约10%。但跟其他新兴市场国家相比，印度的情况要好一些”。

去年10月中旬，卢比兑美元汇率曾暴跌至83卢比兑1美元的创纪录低点，现在对美元的汇率在82左右。

* Better than expected exports

Despite a challenging external environment, exports performed better than expected.

However, exports are susceptible to a global growth slowdown - the income elasticity of exports is high, which implies that the global demand for India’s goods and services is cyclical.

*出口好于预期

尽管外部经济环境严峻，但出口表现好于预期。

但出口容易受到全球增长放缓的影响——出口的收入弹性很高，这意味着全球对印度商品和服务的需求是周期性的。

* WPI eases but inflation a concern

Inflation accelerated significantly during February-April 2022 due to higher prices of fuel and food, which constitute about half of the inflation basket, and elevated core inflation. It peaked at 7.8% in April.

Wholesale price index (WPI) has been in averaged 14.2% in the first half of FY23. However, moderating commodity prices and favourable base effects has brought down WPI inflation since June.

*批发价格指数有所缓解，但通胀仍令人担忧

在2022年2月至4月期间，燃料和食品价格的上涨以及核心通胀上升导致通胀明显加速，今年4月达到了7.8%的峰值。

23财年上半年批发价格指数的平均水平为14.2%。自6月以来，大宗商品价格的放缓和有利的基数效应拉低了批发价格指数。

* Fiscal deficit target on track

The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 %of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its report.

*财政赤字目标进入正轨

世界银行在其报告中表示，在税收收入强劲增长的背景下，中央政府有望实现2022-23年财政赤字占GDP 6.4%的目标。

* International reserves

At over $500 billion, India has one of the largest holdings of international reserves in the world. While the reserves have declined by about 13% this year, they still provide close to eight months of import cover, based on total imports over the last four quarters (from Q3 FY21-22 to Q2 FY22-23).

*外汇储备

印度拥有超过5000亿美元的外汇储备，是世界上持有外汇储备最多的国家之一。根据过去四个季度(从FY21-22财年第三季度到FY22-23财年第二季度)的进口总额，尽管外汇储备今年下降了约13%，但仍可满足近8个月的进口需求。

* What others forecast

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had slashed India's economic growth forecast to 6.8% for 2022 from 7.4% in its July estimate.

Fitch Ratings says India could be one of the fastest-growing emerging markets this year and pegs growth at 7%.

Last month, global ratings agency Moody's Investors Service lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 7% from 7.7% for this year.

In a recently released report, Goldman Sachs projected India to expand by 5.9% in calender year 2023 from 6.9% earlier.

Meanwhile, in its September monetary policy meet, RBI had lowered its GDP forecast for FY23 to 7% from the earlier 7.2%, citing impact of geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and slowing external demand.

*其他机构的预测

今年10月，国际货币基金组织将印度2022年的经济增长预期从7月份的7.4%下调至6.8%。

惠誉国际评级说，印度可能成为今年增长最快的新兴市场之一，预计印度经济增长7%。

上个月，全球评级机构穆迪投资者服务公司将印度今年的GDP增长预期从7.7%下调至7%。

高盛预计，2023年印度经济将从此前的6.9%降至5.9%。

与此同时，在9月份的货币政策会议上，印度央行将其对23财年GDP的预测从之前的7.2%下调至7%，理由是地缘政治紧张局势、全球金融环境收紧和外部需求放缓的影响。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

Raghavan Pattathil•63• Raghavan Pattathil•Mumbai•16 hours ago

The Facts cannot be hidden for a long time. What is happening in India is a silent Revolution, without publicity ! The Government is not at all bothered about the Criticism of so called OPPOSITION. The Fragmented Opposition is a shame for Democracy !

事实真相瞒不久的。印度正在发生一场无声的革命，没有公之于众！政府一点也不介意所谓反对派的批评。四分五裂的反对党是印度皿煮的耻辱！

Vijay Desikan•26537• Raghavan Pattathil•USA•10 hours ago

Silent revolution? The papers are full of Modi's achievement day in and out, and blasting full force on the economy. If the revolution was any more silent everyone in India will go deaf!

无声的革命？报纸每天都高呼莫迪的成就。如果还要再“无声”点，印度人都会聋掉的！

Bablu Bachar•11183• Bablu Bachar•Mumbai•17 hours ago

Oppositions will not be able to digest it.

反对党是无福消受了。

Vastava•6970• Bablu Bachar•UP•15 hours ago

paid news for bhakts

这是莫迪粉丝的洗地文章吧。

p u sastry•788• Tony Stark•16 hours ago

Large percentage of this credit goes to South Indian states where growth is much higher.

这些受表扬的一部分是印度南部各邦的功劳，那里的经济增长要高得多。

Shishir Dash•28590• Shishir Dash•16 hours ago

If Congress would have been at the helm, India’s growth would have achieved a bigger height. Note : Growth here means growth in corruption.

如果国大党掌权，印度的增长会更上一层楼。注：我说的增长指的是腐败的增长。

Yoji Yogi• Shishir Dash•16 hours ago

Such a pity that after 8 years of Acche din bhakts still say "if Congress....this that".

太遗憾了，好日子说了8年，人们仍然放不下国大党，总念叨“如果国大党....”。

Vastava•6970• Shishir Dash•UP•15 hours ago

Congress is much better than illiterate bjp, during congress rupee was strong, economy was good with better jobs for everyone

国大党可是比文盲人民党强太多了，国大党时期卢比强劲，经济良好，每个人都有更好的工作。

Harry• Vastava•USA•13 hours ago

LOL. growth rate was 4% during most of Congress time, contemptly called " Hindu growth rate". But ther was nothing Hindu about it. It should be called " seculatist growth rate"

哈哈国大党执政期间，印度的增长率是4%，被人戏称为“印度增长率”。但这和印度教没有任何关系，应该称之为"世俗增长率"。

International English•8560• User English•17 hours ago

Lesson learned from other countries: Comedians should be kept as Oppositions, and never be given a chance to lead a country.

我们可以从其他国家吸取教训：喜剧演员应该列为反对派，绝对不要给他们机会领导国家。

Bonny Moraes•10799• User English•Goa•14 hours ago

The only permanent thing is the land and may be, the people to some extent. Leaders come and go.

唯一永恒的东西是土地，在某种程度上，也有可能是人民。领导人嘛，上台了倒台的，不会长久。

Sukwinder•6659• User English•16 hours ago

Yes lesson learned from other countries, such as the US, old men should not be kept as leaders.

是的，我们从美国等其他国家吸取了教训，不应该让老人继续担任领导人。

User Kumar• User Kumar•16 hours ago

Its a shame Delhi Beggers stil vote for revdi chaap corrupt anarchist Kejriwal..........

真可惜，德里乞丐到现在还会投票给腐败的无政府主义者柯内瓦尔..........

Vastava•6970• User Kumar•UP•15 hours ago

Delhi has educated people, not like UP

德里有受过教育的市民，不像北方邦。

Bonny Moraes•10799• User Kumar•Goa•14 hours ago

It is possible the the voters too are corrupt. Agree?

有可能选民也贪污腐败了。是吗？

India First•17 hours ago

Liptards and chamche - world bank is lying.

世界银行在撒谎。

Vastava•6970• India First•UP•15 hours ago

Paid news

这是买通稿的吧。

Lord Nord•12320• India First•17 hours ago

it's fake news btw

这是假新闻啦，都散了都散了。

Sukwinder•6659• India First•16 hours ago

Of course they will lie. I have worked with them. I know what they can do with words and numbers.

他们当然会撒谎啊。我和他们一起工作过。我知道他们能用文字和数字做到什么程度。

User kumar nayak•12742• User kumar nayak•16 hours ago

Definitely going to hurt the Pappu and Khujli followers.

这肯定会伤害拉胡尔和胡吉里的追随者。

Bonny Moraes•10799• User kumar nayak•Goa•14 hours ago

World banks says so many thing, some sound favourable while others don’t. When things are said in our favour then the world bank is good if goes agains us they are anti India.

世界银行说过好多话，有些对我们有利，有些则不然。对我们有利时，世界银行就是好人，对我们不利时，他们就是印度的敌人。

Vastava•6970• User kumar nayak•UP•15 hours ago

They didnt sell everything to ambani or adani

他们还没有把所有东西都卖给安巴尼或阿达尼。

Haridas Nair•3493• Haridas Nair•15 hours ago

Tite slap to all those people who were blaming modi government

这给了那些指责莫迪政府的人一个响亮的耳光。

Ragu mudur•24682• Haridas Nair•Bengaluru•14 hours ago

sir please advice Kerala people to stop supporting CPI

先生，请建议喀拉拉邦人民停止支持印共

Subir Kumar Roy•595•16 hours ago

now the comedian will run across the Globe (Undisclosed Locations) to prove the World Bank wrong.

现在，这位喜剧演员将环游全球(地点未公开)，证明世界银行错了。

Vkr•23790• Subir Kumar Roy•15 hours ago

not comedian better day no.1 liar.

没有喜剧演员，日子更美好。头号骗子。

Prashanth C A•10720• Prashanth C A•15 hours ago

Burned moment for all MODI-haters.....

所有讨厌莫迪的人都要气死了…哈哈…

Nemam Natarajan Pasupathy•31574•Hyderabad•16 hours ago

We all are aware of it. No certification is needed from World Bank ! Pappu will still not believe and beat around the bush on inflation and job opportunity!

The other opposition leaders are no better.

我们都知道这个情况。不需要世界银行的认证！拉胡尔还是不相信，在通货膨胀和就业机会问题上打太极！

其他反对派领导人也好不到哪里去。

Mark• Mark•13 hours ago

It is OK to grow. But why is this government promoting Hindutva Extrimist. I want to be part of the growth but not at cost of basic freedom. Hopefully if they really care about India they will move away from Extremism

增长是好事。但这个政府为什么要宣扬印度教极端主义。我也想要跟着增长，但不要让我牺牲自由为代价。如果他们真的关心印度，希望他们能放弃极端主义。

Vishal Sheth•15121•Mumbai, India•15 hours ago

Usual trend. Both RBI and World Bank make high estimates and then revise them downwards. This has been happening for years now.

这已经是老掉牙的套路了。印度央行和世界银行都会给出很高的预测，然后再下调。他们已经干了好多年了。