黎明报：美元、卢比和格雷欣定律

Dollar, rupee and Gresham’s law

美元、卢比和格雷欣定律

IN 1558, when Elizabeth I ascended the throne of England, a plethora of challenging circumstances confronted her. Not least was the low demand for English coinage (there was no paper-based money back then). English residents appeared to be fonder of other European currencies. Put another way, demand for English money was low.

1558年，当伊丽莎白一世登上英国王位时，她面临着大量的挑战。尤其是对英国硬币的需求很低(那时候还没有纸币)。英国居民似乎更喜欢其他欧洲货币。换句话说，对英国货币的需求很低。

But even more puzzling was the observation that the non-English European coinage was getting difficult to find. Perplexed by this, the queen wrote a letter to Sir Thomas Gresham, an experienced financier. In his reply, Gresham put forth a simple proposition — good and bad money cannot circulate together. Additionally, he stated that bad money would drive out the good money.

但更令人困惑的是，非英国的欧洲货币越来越难找到。对此，女王感到困惑，她给经验丰富的金融家托马斯·格雷沙姆爵士写了一封信。在他的回答中，格雷欣提出了一个简单的命题——好钱和坏钱不能同时流通。此外，他还指出，劣币会驱逐良币。

Gresham’s observation came to be known as ‘Gresham’s law’. But he was not the first one to observe this phenomenon. It had been known since the Greek times. From time to time, some observer would notice this particular relation playing out. For example, Ibn Taimiyyah (1263-1328) noticed the same. (Interestingly, he also alluded to the outflow of good money to offshore destinations, analogous to the wealth flowing to offshore havens in our times!)

格雷欣的发现后来被称为“格雷欣定律”。但他并不是第一个发现到这种现象的人。早在希腊时代就有人知道了。有时，一些观察者会注意到这种特殊的关系。例如，伊本·泰米亚(1263-1328)也注意到了这一点。(有趣的是，他还提到好钱流向离岸目的地，类似于我们这个时代的财富流向离岸避风港!)

What reminded me of Gresham’s law is our current predicament, especially the difficulty in finding dollars. Back in January, when I forewarned against the possibility of a crisis (‘An economic collapse?’), one of my main assertions was that we travel in circles as far as our economic management is concerned.

让我想起格雷欣定律的是我们目前的困境，尤其是很难找到美元。今年1月，当我对可能发生的危机(“经济崩溃?”)提出预警时，我的一个主要观点是，就经济管理而言，我们在原地踏步。

There is a short spike in output for a short time and then the symptoms of the underlying malice start appearing. Dollar shortages are one indication of coming full circle.

输出在短时间内出现一个短峰值，然后潜在恶意的症状开始出现。美元短缺是经济复苏的一个迹象。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

M. Emad

1 Bangladesh Taka = 2.5 Pakistan Rupees.

1孟加拉国塔卡= 2.5巴基斯坦卢比。

BSD

Because the writing is on the wall. A failed state's currency has no value.

这是不祥之兆。一个失败国家的货币没有价值。

Machar Pahlwan

Pakistani rupee is losing its value quickly while inflation keeps going up. People are smart enough to realize the buying power of the rupee keeps decreasing quickly so they do not want to hold a deflating asset and lose their life savings.

巴基斯坦卢比正在迅速贬值，通货膨胀持续上升。人们很聪明，意识到卢比的购买力正在迅速下降，所以他们不想持有一种贬值的资产，失去他们一生的积蓄。

Constantine

It is said that in the black market usd is available for 245 Pakistani rupees. And that it’s not available in banks.

据说，在黑市上，美元可以兑换245巴基斯坦卢比。银行里也没有美元。

David

All the Asian countries should have a common currency for trade

所有的亚洲国家应该使用通用的贸易货币

John the Baptist

Meanwhile the Eastern neighbor's Rupee is going International! Russia, Sri Lanka already and soon UAE using it for their foreign trade!

与此同时，巴基斯坦东部邻国的卢比正在走向国际化！俄罗斯、斯里兰卡和阿联酋已经在用它进行对外贸易了！

Ukasha Rajpoot

Great piece. Credibility is the issue with rupee. When it comes to credibility, sustainability, rule of law, ethical business practices, we lack in all that. Today an old friend called and asked to get him some medicines for his dad, cancer patient, medicines are so hard to find these days. We are passing through an unashamed self-destructive time. History will definitely do justice with the elites of the time.

巴基斯坦卢比的问题是信誉。说到信誉、可持续性、法治、商业道德，我们全都缺乏。今天一位老朋友打电话给他，让他给他爸爸买一些药，他爸爸是癌症患者，这些天药很难买到。我们正在经历一个毫无羞耻的自我毁灭时代。历史肯定会公正地评价当时的精英。

Oracle

This is the status of PKR and then FO makes comment that India is frustrated.

这就是巴基斯坦卢比的现状，外交部却发表评论说印度感到沮丧。

Khan kesawan

Currency debasement, inflation and low gdp growth are symptoms not the cause. The real causes are corruption is at peak and national wealth is moving out at record rate. Top 1% have access to unlimited pak rupees, are converting the looted wealth at any exchange rate available and moving it out of the country at record rate.

货币贬值、通货膨胀和低GDP增速是症状，而不是原因。真正的原因是腐败达到顶峰，国家财富正以创纪录的速度外流。最富有的1%的人拥有无限的巴基斯坦卢比，他们以任何汇率兑换掠夺来的财富，并以创纪录的速度将其转移到国外。

Iskandar Aslan

Problem is exactly as you detailed but in summary major reforms needs which no government undertakes or completes

问题正如你所详细描述的，但总的来说，政府没有进行重大改革

John

PKR is not worth the paper its printed on

巴基斯坦卢比还不如印刷它的纸值钱

Simba

Its next to worthless.

巴基斯坦卢比几乎一文不值

Qamar Ahmed

The ship has sunk. The ship wreckage will be recovered after 100 years

船沉了。这艘船的残骸将在100年后被发现

Salman

Imran khan took more loans than all the previous governments combined, and now every Pakistani is facing the consequences of his destructive policies.

伊姆兰汗借的贷款比前几届政府加起来还多，现在每个巴基斯坦人都面临着他出台的破坏性政策的后果。

Dr. Salaria, Aamir Ahmad

@M. Emad. Who cares?

谁在乎？

imdad kolori

This country has no economic basis . Peroid

这个国家没有经济基础。

M Saeed

During very difficult days of 70s, a dollar was equal to around 3 Ruppes. Today it is at brutal 250 rupees.

在70年代非常困难的日子里，1美元相当于大约3卢比。如今，1美元等于250卢比。

Syed

Financial deterioration but hopeful that Dar would do some magic. Otherwise, national assets to be sold.