到2075年，巴基斯坦将成为世界第六大经济体

How realistic is the forecast that Pakistan will be world’s sixth-largest economy by 2075?

到2075年巴基斯坦将成为世界第六大经济体，这个预测有多现实？

Will Pakistan be the sixth-largest world economy by 2075? The “Path to 2075”, a paper issued by Goldman Sachs earlier this month, says yes.

到2075年，巴基斯坦会成为世界第六大经济体吗？高盛本月早些时候发布的一份报告《通往2075年的道路》给出了肯定的答案。

According to the paper, China will rank first, followed by India, the United States, Indonesia and Nigeria. As a point of reference, the US National Intelligence Council, citing Oxford Economics, predicts that by 2040, India’s economy will rank 3rd, China’s 1st and Pakistan’s 23rd.

该报告称，中国将位列第一，其次是印度、美国、印度尼西亚和尼日利亚。作为参考，美国国家情报委员会援引牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的话预测，到2040年，印度经济将排名第三，中国排名第一，巴基斯坦排名第23。

Using a popular macroeconomic model, the Goldman Sachs paper predicts the economic outlook for 104 countries. It updates an analysis that was published in 2003 which was limited to the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) economies and a subsequent study that expanded it to 70 countries.

高盛的报告使用了一个流行的宏观经济模型，预测了104个国家的经济前景。它更新了2003年发表的一份仅限于金砖国家(巴西-俄罗斯-印度-中国-南非)经济体的分析报告，以及随后将研究范围扩大到70个国家的研究报告。

Being the sixth-largest economy in the world would represent a massive change of fortunes for Pakistan, which has been struggling with economic growth for the past several decades. But how realistic is this forecast?

成为世界第六大经济体将意味着巴基斯坦命运的巨大变化。过去几十年，巴基斯坦一直在经济增长方面苦苦挣扎。但这一预测有多现实？

The paper comes with an important caveat: “The risks involved in projecting far into the future remain substantial.” The authors, Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas, acknowledge that the forecasts they made 10 years ago were overly optimistic, since economic growth ran into headwinds, especially for Russia, Brazil and Latin America. They say the contents should not be viewed as a forecast per se, but more as a guide on how global dynamics may evolve across countries.

这份报告附带了一个重要的警告：“预测遥远未来所涉及的风险仍然很大。”报告的作者凯文•戴利和塔达斯•格德米纳斯承认，他们10年前做出的预测过于乐观，因为经济增长遇到了阻力，尤其是在俄罗斯、巴西和拉丁美洲。他们表示，报告内容本身不应被视为预测，而更应被视为各国全球动态可能如何演变的指南。

They state that short-term forecasts are affected by business cycles and events such as the Covid-19 pandemic which are difficult to predict. Thus, they focus on long-term trends but do indicate that “populist nationalism”, a slowdown in the rate of technological progress and climate change pose significant risks.

他们指出，短期预测受到商业周期和难以预测的大流行等事件的影响。因此，他们关注的是长期趋势，但也指出“民粹主义民族主义”、技术进步速度放缓和气候变化构成了重大风险。

Their forecast is primarily driven by growth in population and productivity. Population projections are usually not controversial. They are based on factors such as the birth rate, life expectancy, and the percentage of the population that is working.

他们的预测主要是受人口和生产力增长的推动。人口预测通常没有争议。它们是基于出生率、预期寿命和工作人口比例等因素得出的。

Since populations are aging in the Asian Tigers, their ranking in the economic forecast begins to diminish. For example, the Philippines moves ahead of South Korea.

由于亚洲四小龙的人口老龄化，它们在经济预测中的排名开始下降。例如，菲律宾领先于韩国。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

Northern Tadka

It's wrong. Pakistan is already the biggest economy. Only people don't trust banks and governments that's why the money is hidden.

这是错的。巴基斯坦已经是最大的经济体了。只是人们不相信银行和政府，所以才会把钱藏起来。

MirzaCanada

The person who cannot predict his or her own future a year in advance is forecasting 50 years in the future.

一个不能预测明年的人，却在预测50年后的未来。

Vikram Vetaal

6th largest country of ignorants and illiterates by 2075 is more like it given the immediate current trends..

考虑到当前的趋势，到2075年，印度将成为第6大无知文盲国家。

Jamil Soomro, New York City

Quite a sensible and logical analysis of Pakistan's Economy by

For it ( Pakistan) to get ahead it will have to do a lot more

than simply grow its population at a faster rate." Well said.

对巴基斯坦经济进行了非常明智和合乎逻辑的分析。巴基斯坦要想走在前面，还需要做很多事情，而不是简单地以更快的速度增长人口。

ProActive

If population is the main criteria, by this time Pak GDP should have crossed combined GDP of UK, Germany and France

如果人口是主要标准，那么此时巴基斯坦的GDP应该超过英国、德国和法国的GDP总和

Mohd Asif

Pakistan will not grow unless it settles all its disputes with India. It will only get worse.

除非解决与印度的所有争端，否则巴基斯坦无法发展。情况只会变得更糟。

Chaiwala

Keep on dreaming

继续做梦吧

Mansoor

100%. With population expected to be 1 Billion and India and China both in around 500 million who can stop Pakistan to be the biggest economy. Just feeding this mass one roti each would be a GDP to shame any country.

100%现实。巴基斯坦人口预计将达到10亿，印度和中国都在5亿左右，谁能阻止巴基斯坦成为最大经济体。只要给这群人每人一个烤饼，就足以让任何国家感到羞耻。

Omveer

The point is whether you will exst till then.

关键是到那时巴基斯坦是否还存在。

Dr. AsHamed.

In one sector we can beat others is population growth, and we will.

人口增长是我们可以打败其他国家的一个领域，我们会做到的。

Divakar Singh

i think For Pakistan this data will based on their population boom. and its not going to stop, so keep increasing your population.

我认为对巴基斯坦来说，这些数据是基于他们的人口激增，而且不会停止，所以继续增加人口吧。

Zack Abdi

Pakistan is strategically located. Pakistan has numerous natural resources. In early 2000, Pakistan economy was poised to be in par with Brazil (Largest economy in South America).

Good Governance free from corruption can help.

Leaders make the nations!

巴基斯坦地处战略要地，拥有丰富的自然资源。在2000年初，巴基斯坦的经济已经与巴西(南美洲最大的经济体)持平。没有腐败的良好治理会有所帮助。领袖成就国家!

Ashok Kumar

The assumptions are too many and likelihood of this growth seems very unlikely. Let’s hope Pakistan comes out of the present quagmire and puts the economy and polity on track.

假设太多了，而且这种增长的可能性似乎非常小。祈祷巴基斯坦走出目前的泥潭，让经济和政治走上正轨。

ABCD

And by 2100, India will cross China.

到2100年，印度将超过中国。

NewYorker

You need some guts to write such articles! Hats off to the writer.

写这样的文章需要勇气！向作者致敬。

Amol - An Indian

We the people of India would like to see a prosperous Pakistan, We dont hate Pakistan at all. but there are political differences. For better future Pakistani youth needs to come forward and lead the country. Only 3 families are ruling the country. I am shocked to see prices of daily needs in Pakistan. Pakistan need to resume its relations with India. Bcz India is the only neighbour who can provide any help, it will definitely decrease the inflation.

我们印度人民希望看到一个繁荣的巴基斯坦，我们一点也不讨厌巴基斯坦，但政治上存在分歧。为了更好的未来，巴基斯坦年轻人需要站出来领导这个国家。只有3个家族统治着这个国家。看到巴基斯坦日常必需品的价格，我感到震惊。巴基斯坦需要恢复与印度的关系。印度是唯一可以提供帮助的邻国，肯定能降低通货膨胀。

Canadian

The economist forgets to include political stability, without the stability only regression.

经济学家忘记了政治稳定，没有稳定，经济只会倒退。

Dr. Lowe, I. Q.

That is fair forecast. The reason why? Because on Planet Earth the super races would have left by 2075, settled on Mars and we would be all alone here with Nigeria, Somalia, South American countries etc.

这是一个合理的预测。为什么这么说呢？因为在地球上，超级种族将在2075年离开，去火星上定居，我们将与尼日利亚、索马里、南美国家等一起孤独地生活在这个地球上。

well-wisher

Wake up call for leaders and people. Population growth must be seriously addressed or it will sink the country from the weight of poverty.

给领导和人民敲响了警钟。必须严肃对待人口增长问题，否则会使国家陷入贫困的深渊。

faraz khan

I highly doubt Pakistan will exst in 75 years

我非常怀疑75年后巴基斯坦是否还存在

shazad akhtar

Pakistan has the potential, BUT ! For this to materialize PAKISTAN NEEDS A REVALUATION!!!!!!

巴基斯坦有潜力，但是要实现这一目标，巴基斯坦需改革！

Riaz

Sharifs will be the 6th biggest economy by 2075 with London being their centre of,operation!