GDP growth in 2022-23 seen at 7%: NSO’s advance estimates

印度国家统计局预测2022-23年GDP增长将达7%

NEW DELHI: India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated at 7% for 2022-23 on the back of a rebound in services and farm sectors but may face strong headwinds in the months ahead due to the geopolitical situation and possible recession in several countries across the globe.

The first advance estimate for 2022-23 released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday estimated GDP growth at 7%, slower than the 8.7% expansion posted in 2021-22. The estimate is a shade higher than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which pegged it at 6.8%. Last month, the central bank cut its GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 citing accentuated headwinds from protracted geopolitical tensions, tightening global financial conditions and slowing external demand.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also lowered India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2022-23 to 6.8% from the earlier 7.4%, citing the impact of a slowing global economy, stubborn inflation, rising interest rates and the Ukraine war.

Amid the global gloom, India will still retain the tag of the fastest growing thanks to robust domestic demand while China is expected to face a slowdown due to the impact of the lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19. The Indian economy has been scripting a recovery after the bruising impact of the Covid-19 pandemic but the global slowdown, the geopolitical situation, stubborn price pressures and the impact of rising interest rates have posed risks to faster expansion.

新德里：由于服务业和农业生产开始反弹，印度2022-23年的GDP增长预计将达7%，但由于地缘政治局势和全球多国可能出现的经济衰退，印度未来几个月可能面临较大压力。

国家统计局周五公布了2022-23年首次GDP增长预测为7%，低于2021-22年的8.7%，略高于印度储备银行预测的6.8%。上个月，印度央行下调了2022-23年的GDP增长预测，原因是地缘政治的长期紧张局势、全球金融环境收紧和外部需求放缓带来的不利因素加剧。

国际货币基金组织也将印度2022-23年GDP增长预期从此前的7.4%下调至6.8%，原因是全球经济放缓、持续通胀、利率上升和乌克兰战争的影响。

在全球经济低迷的背景下，由于强劲的国内需求，印度仍是经济增长速度最快的国家，而中国由于为了阻断新冠疫情的传播采取封控措施，可能面临经济放缓。在遭受新冠疫情的严重影响后，印度经济一直在复苏，但全球经济放缓、地缘政治局势、居高不下的物价压力以及利率上升的影响，对印度经济的快速复苏带来了风险。

Fiscal deficit seen on track

财政赤字有望步入正轨

The data showed the growth in nominal GDP ( which includes inflation) during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4% as compared to 19.5% in 2021-22. “The primary purpose of the first advance estimates is to provide an estimate for nominal GDP growth for the upcoming Union budget, as it is used for preparing the revised fiscal deficit number for the current fiscal year.

数据显示，2022-23年名义GDP(包含通货膨胀)的增长预计为15.4%，而2021-22年为19.5%。“首次预测的主要目的是为即将到来的联邦预算提供名义GDP增长的预测，本财年的财政赤字数字需要借此进行修订。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

caaknidee • Bahrain • 1 day ago

With lot of incentives to manufacturing companies, rather than the genreal public was given by this RSS govt. But the real growth has not happen and as a result job creation. With the inflation ranging around 5% to 7%, the real growth is nothing

RSS政府的激励措施都是针对制造业公司，而非普通大众。但实际上并没有带来增长，创造就业机会。通货膨胀率高达5%—7%，实际增长则微乎其微。

Anand Mirle • BLR • 1 day ago

UPA also showed couple of quarters of high growth with 10.5% GDP growth in 2008. But there is a difference between the growth we see today to the kind of growth we saw under UPA in 2008. 2008 growth has no economic underpngs and quality of growth was extremely poor and short lived because – Most of the growth was drive by the loans (or NPA’s now) given to enormous number of shell companies which simply created an artificial “output” for GDP calculation ... Read More

团结进步联盟2008年的GDP增长也达到了10.5%。但今天的增长跟2008年UPA时期的增长还是不一样的。2008年的增长没有经济基础，增长质量差强人意，而且持续时间很短，基本是由发放给大量空壳公司的贷款推动的。

Sandeep Mandal • Mumbai • 1 day ago

Sharp rise in total debt, debt per capita, adverse Balance of trade, peaking unemployment rate don't matter. Only an Andhbhakt will applaud because he believes blindly in Moditricks

债务总额急剧上升、人均负债、贸易逆差、失业率达到峰值，这些都不重要了。只有莫迪的铁杆粉丝才会为此叫好，因为这种人盲目地相信莫迪的手段。

Sandeep Mandal • Mumbai • 1 day ago

Redefine GDP to suit agenda, still it stoops to 6.6%

为了某种目的重新预测GDP，但GDP还是会降到6.6%

Patriot • Unknown • 1 day ago

It is good but Population growth without control,will wipe out any gain and people may not benefit.

这个数据看着不错，但如果对人口增长不加控制，任何增长都无济于事，印度人民无法从中受益。

JSR • 1 day ago

Koran bhakths burnol time.

这是让印度人兴奋的时刻。

mmmm • 1 day ago

Very bad news for opposition, while an amazing news for patriotic Indians. This decade belongs to INDIA, no doubt. Jai Hind

对反对派来说这可是个坏消息，但对爱国的印度人来说绝对是好消息。毫无疑问，这个十年将属于印度。印度必胜。

User Chalam • 1 day ago

West started preserving their backyard and outsourcing all their needs which harms nature ... Like dogs develo world is catching these biscuits. For a Nation of India size, 2 to 3% of stable growth itself is too much. If we are growing at 7% it is blind consumerism that is hovering around and it also means we are in lighting speed to use up the resources Mother earth provided us. Just slow down and Live!!!

西方开始保护自己的后花园了，他们把所有的需求都外包出去，这对我们的自然环境造成了破坏…而发展中国家就像狗一样追着这块肉骨头。对于印度这种规模的大国而言，保持2%到3%的稳定增长就很惊人了。如果我们的增长速度达到7%，那就意味着盲目的消费主义，也意味着我们正以闪电般的速度耗尽地球母亲给我们的资源。放慢脚步，好好生活吧！！

Shankara Rao T S • Canada • 1 day ago

It is really a heartening news . Even if the growth is a tad lower, still India will be a fastest growing economy as majority of developed nations are heading towards recession ! Many World bodies, such as: IMF, World Bank & many rating agencies have predicted a robust growth despite Ukraine-Russia War, increased energy costs etc.

这真是一个提振人心的消息。就算增长速度有所下降，印度仍是增长最快的经济体，大多数发达国家则面临衰退！许多国际机构，如：国际货币基金组织，世界银行和许多评级机构都预测，虽然有俄乌战争，能源价格上涨等不利因素，印度仍将强劲增长。

Rajeev S • Jhumri Talaiyya • 1 day ago

India will double its nominal GDP by 2028 if it grows at this rate.

如果照这个速度增长，2028年印度的名义GDP将翻一番。

Mohan • California, USA • 1 day ago

Did anyone track what was the expected GDP in the past 8 years (after Feku became PM) and the real GDP?

有人追踪过过去8年(莫迪就任总理后)的预期GDP和实际GDP吗？

Ilias • USA • 1 day ago

7% is a great rate. It would be amazing if it is achieved.

7%的速度非常理想。如果能实现，将十分惊人。

Muhad Asghar • 1 day ago

The Kashmiri Nation's freedom cannot and will not be colonially occupierd by the medler RSS-BJP India, whatever the cost for this national and natural destiny

克什米尔民族的自由不能也不会被爱管闲事的RSS-人民党印度殖民占领，无论这个国家和自然命运的代价是什么。

Truth • India • 1 day ago

Yes everything will grow in 2023 because there is a Lok Sabha election in 2024. All this PR stuff to fool people by BJP.

是的，2023年一切都会增长，因为2024年将举行下议院选举。这些通稿都是为了愚弄人民。

• 1 day ago

All economist who can't even manage their home needs are commenting on GDP ...

连自己家里都管理不好的经济学家都敢评论GDP…

Ponraj Abraham • Mumbai • 1 day ago

The outbreak of such news is to make bhakts happy.

这些新闻就是为了让莫迪粉丝们高兴而已。

kaisar imam • 1 day ago

Data seems incorrect because there are no jobs in mkt.

这个数据似乎有问题，因为工作不好找啊。

• kaisar imam • 1 day ago

Are you skilled person ?? freebies not allowed

你是技术人员吗？不能领免费赠品哦。

Ponraj Abraham • Mumbai • 1 day ago

What difference does it make if you provide a particular percentage? Who believes in it unless the number 81 crore comes down?

你们信口编个百分比数字有啥意义呢？除非真的看到8.1亿，不然谁会相信？

• 1 day ago

Go fool bhakt.. they will belive anything

你们就继续欺骗印度百姓吧，反正他们啥都信。

• 1 day ago

Growth percentage to be with inconsiderate with General election in 2024 and prior to election in the states.  

这个增长率压根不考虑2024年大选和各邦大选前的情况。

• 1 day ago

Under mutron, I repeat mutorn, economy will grow by 7000000% one day.

在莫迪的领导下，经济早晚会增长7000000%的。

Hritik Kumar • 1 day ago

Nice

哇，厉害了。

Pappu Pass • Unknown • 1 day ago

-6 % to 7%= 13%... high growth...even monkey can't jump such a big leap...but Mudi economic...how laughable...

从- 6%到7%，增长13%…好高的增长…猴子都跳不了这么高…但是莫迪经济有够可笑……

Armoredcore • Pappu Pass • Kolkata • 1 day ago

That's not how economics work son. It was on minus cause manufacturing was closed, due to COVID.

经济学不是这么算的，孩子。制造业因为新冠疫情而关停了。

User • Armoredcore • 1 day ago

also, it was in 2021, India already recovered last year with 8.7%

而且，那是2021年的事了。印度去年就已经实现了8.7%的复苏。

User Kaushal • 1 day ago

The people in various state governments need to rally around to ensure their best foot forward is always put to not only get this GDP growth but exceed this. Critics must also spend time constructively by contributing to the nations might rather than being superficially critical without a base to support their criticism..

各邦政府需要团结起来，实现最大发展，不仅要实现GDP增长目标，还要尽力超过。评论家们也得花时间地为国家作出建设的贡献，不要只是毫无依据地肤浅评论。