World Bank cuts Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast in half

世界银行将巴基斯坦GDP增长预期减半

ISLAMABAD: Warning of another global recession, the World Bank on Tuesday forecast Pakis­tan’s economic growth to slow further to two per cent during the current year — down by two percentage points from its June 2022 estimate — because of the devastating floods and slowdown in global growth rate.

伊 斯兰堡：周二，世界银行警告称，由于毁灭性的洪水和全球增长率放缓，巴基斯坦今年的经济增长将进一步放缓至2%，比2022年6月的预测下降了两个百分点

The World Bank’s latest forecast also points to a “sharp, long-lasting slowdown” with global growth pegged at 1.7pc this year, compared to 3pc it predicted in June, said the bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, a flagship publication of the World Bank Group.

世界银行集团的旗舰出版物——世界银行最新的《全球经济展望》报告称，世界银行的最新预测还指出，今年全球经济增长将“急剧而持久的放缓”，与6月份预测的3%相比，今年的全球经济增长将被锁定在1.7%。

It said that global growth was slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

报告称，面对通胀上升、利率上升、投资减少以及俄罗斯入侵乌克兰造成的破坏，全球经济增长正在急剧放缓。

In the report, the Washington-based lending agency said Pakistan’s economic output was not only declining itself but also bringing down the regional growth rate. It forecast Pakistan’s GDP growth rate to improve to 3.2pc in 2024, but that too would be lower than the earlier estimate of 4.2pc.

这家总部设在华盛顿的贷款机构在报告中表示，巴基斯坦的经济产出不仅自身在下降，而且还拉低了该地区的增长率。它预测巴基斯坦2024年的GDP增长率将提高到3.2%，但这也低于之前估计的4.2%。

“Policy uncertainty further complicates the economic outlook” of Pakistan, in addition to flood damages and the resultant increase in poverty, the bank said, explaining that an already precarious economic situation in Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and large fiscal and current account deficits, was exacerbated in August last year by severe flooding, which cost many lives.

世界银行表示，除了洪水造成的损失和由此造成的贫困人口增加之外，“政策的不确定性进一步使巴基斯坦的经济前景复杂化”。该银行解释说，巴基斯坦本已岌岌可危的经济形势——外汇储备低、财政和经常账户赤字庞大——在去年8月因严重洪灾而恶化，造成许多人丧生。

About one-third of the country’s land area was affected, damaging infrastructure, and directly affecting about 15pc of the population.

该国约三分之一的土地面积受到影响，破坏了基础设施，并直接影响到约15%的人口。

“Recovery and reconstruction needs are expected to be 1.6 times the FY2022-23 national development budget,” it said, adding that the flooding is likely to seriously damage agricultural production — which accounts for 23pc of GDP and 37pc of employment — disrupting the current and upcoming planting seasons and pushing 5.8 million at 9m people into poverty.

报告称：“恢复和重建需求预计是2022-2023财年国家发展预算的1.6倍。”报告还补充说，洪水可能会严重破坏占GDP 23%和就业37%的农业生产，扰乱当前和即将到来的种植季节，使580万人陷入贫困。

Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and rising sovereign risk, saw its currency depreciate by 14pc between June and December and its country risk premium rise by 15 percentage points over the same period.

巴基斯坦外汇储备低，主权风险上升，其货币在6月至12月间贬值14%，其国家风险溢价同期上升15个百分点。

Pakistan’s consumer price inflation reached 24.5pc in December on an annual basis, recently coming off its highest rate since the 1970s, the World Bank said.

世界银行称，巴基斯坦去年12月的消费价格通胀率达到24.5%，最近创下了自20世纪70年代以来的最高水平。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

Aliyah

Pakistan should put  sanctions on WB.

巴基斯坦应该对世行实施制裁。

Ayub

Pakistan will soon be the fastest growing economy in the world with 10B dollars of donation committed!

巴基斯坦很快将成为世界上增长最快的经济体，并承诺捐赠100亿美元!

Zuk

World Bank reports are always six to twelve months delayed from ground reality. With rapid closures of industry Pakistan economy is set to contract this fiscal year thanks to regime change.

世界银行的报告总是比实际情况晚6-12个月。随着工业的迅速关闭，由于政权更迭，巴基斯坦经济将在本财政年度收缩。

Ghani K

Pakistan is n't going to get out of economic quagmire partly due to unstable central government, its questionable practices.

巴基斯坦走不出经济泥潭，部分原因是中央政府不稳定，其做法有问题。

Sahira Naz

Sole objective of this article is to white wash the regime change!!!

这篇文章的唯一目的是粉饰政权更迭!!

Majboor

Same World Bank report forecasts India growth to now increase to 7.1% with the pace of recent development initiatives by their government and foreign investment inflows (actual, not “pledged”). Nation needs to get their act together and stop internal bickering.

世界银行的这份报告也预测，随着印度政府最近的发展计划和外国投资流入(实际的，而不是“承诺的”)，印度的经济增长率将达到7.1%。国家需要团结起来，停止内部争吵。

Aruj

Why is this news? Nothing new here.

为什么这也算新闻？这没什么新鲜的。

Zak

"The South Asian region is anticipated to grow by 5.5pc and 5.8pc in 2023 and 2024, respectively  — mainly because of supporting 6.6pc and 6.1pc GDP growth in India."

"In the region excluding India, growth in 2023 and 2024 — is expected to underperform  mainly due to weak growth in Pakistan, which is projected at 2pc"

“南亚地区预计在2023年和2024年分别增长5.5%和5.8%，主要是因为支持印度6.6%和6.1%的GDP增长。”

“除印度外，该地区2023年和2024年的增长预计将表现不佳，主要原因是巴基斯坦增长疲软，预计为2%。”

MOAZ

Not good news for Pakistan

对巴基斯坦来说不是好消息

Constantine

Actual rate is negative, Pakistanis are hiding that.

实际增长率是负的，巴基斯坦人隐瞒了真实情况。

RAaja Raman

Instead of GDP growth forecast....WB should do Loans forecast. If the loans pipeline is good....then economy is good else it is in ICU.

世界银行应该做贷款预测，而不是GDP增长预测。如果贷款渠道良好，那么经济状况就好，否则经济就进了ICU。

Dr.Arshad

A strong and resilient nation will negotiate these woes successfully as ever.

一个强大而有韧性的国家将一如既往地成功应对这些困境。

Skeptic 2

Bankruptcy is knocking on the door.

就要破产了。

Aruj

I doubt if the country can even reach half the new target.

我怀疑巴基斯坦增长率能否达到新预期的一半。

Aruj

The scenes of people fighting for flour on the streets broke my heart.

人们在街上争抢面粉的场面令我心碎。

Rain King

Time to cut Pakistan in half too. Just like 1971.

是时候把巴基斯坦也一分为二了，就像1971年那样。

Random Indian

It is their business to forecast.  It is our business to work hard and prove them wrong.

预测是他们的事。我们的职责就是努力工作，证明他们是错的。

Outspoken

Blaming is easier than introspection

责怪他人比自省容易

Zeeshan

Much worse to come in the next 6 months.

在接下来的6个月里，情况会更糟。

ABCD

Let CPEC to get completed. All pains will vanish and the region will emerge as most prospered area  in entire world.

等中巴经济走廊完成，所有的痛苦都将消失，该地区将成为全世界最繁荣的地区。

John the Baptist

"Pakistan's GDP growth"....

Growth? Who's even talking about growth? Survival is the biggest question on people's minds!

“巴基斯坦的GDP增长”，增长？谁还在谈论增长？生存是人们心中最大的问题！

SAMA

And you want Kashmir?

你们还想要克什米尔？