2023年的中国海军，有哪些优势和劣势

Chinese Navy in 2023: What Are Its Strength And Weakness?

2023年的中国海军：优势和劣势是什么?

As of 2023, what are the strengths of the Chinese Navy? What are its remaining weaknesses? What is China doing to resolve its military shortcomings?

截至2023年，中国海军的实力有哪些？他们还有哪些弱点？中国正在采取什么措施来解决其军事短板？

以下是各国网民的评论：

Modsognir

I think one other factor that is often overlooked when comparing the number of ships is that the US fleet is spread out over essentially the whole world, while the chinese fleet is concentrated in waters near China.

我认为，在比较舰船数量时，另一个经常被忽视的因素是，美国舰队基本上分布在全世界，而中国舰队则集中在中国附近海域。

Ulikemyname

In case of war the US navy will be mobilized. Not to mention that the US navy will also not be alone. Countries like Japan, Australia and UK will support the US in the defense of Taiwan. On top of other other countries like those from NATO, S. Korea and India are very likely to join as well. And to be honest the naval superiority question will be answered in the very begng of the war when the first vollies start.

一旦发生战争，美国海军将被动员起来，美国海军也不会孤军奋战。日本、澳大利亚和英国等国将支持美国保卫台湾。除了北约国家之外，韩国和印度也很有可能加入。老实说，海军优势的问题将在战争一开始就得到答案，那时第一次炮击开始了。

Modsognir

@Ulikemyname I wouldn't be so sure about all those wild assertions if I were you.

@Ulikemyname 如果我是你，我不会对这些疯狂的断言这么肯定。

whiteshark450

@Ulikemyname Imagine being the strongest country in the world but you can no longer suppress a single country so you try to goon squad.

@Ulikemyname 想象一下，你是世界上最强大的国家，但你不能再压制一个国家，所以你叫了一帮打手。

Modsognir

@Ulikemyname You also seem to be a bit delusional about the proxy war in Ukraine, so I'll just say... Wait and see what will happen there over the next year or two.

@Ulikemyname 你似乎对乌克兰的代理人战争有点妄想，所以我只能说，让我们拭目以待，看看未来一两年那里会发生什么。

Dave Cai

I am not so sure about Korea or Japan would participate militarily in such an event. You assume that they would be loyal to the US, I don't think so.

我不确定韩国或日本是否会与这样的军事事件。你认为他们会忠于美国，但我不这么认为。

Ulikemyname

@Dave Cai Japan is one of the most loyal US allies and they pledged their words for thet will defend Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion. Korea is eternal US ally as they were the main reason why S. Korea even exsts today. The Koreans are rapidly militarizing and play ever more significant role in the global military affairs. There are estimates that put Korea above China in the global exports of wepaons. So they are also preparing.

@Dave Cai 日本是美国最忠诚的盟友之一，他们承诺一旦中国出兵，他们将保卫台湾。韩国是美国永远的盟友，因为韩国今天存靠的就是美国。朝鲜正在迅速军事化，并在全球军事事务中发挥着越来越重要的作用。有分析认为，韩国的武器出口量超过了中国。所以他们也在准备。

Zhe

@Ulikemyname in the scenario of a war in Taiwan, the initiative is controlled by China. They will pick the most advantageous timing to start the operation. By the time the US manages to mobilize its forces, it will be weeks and probably 90% of Taiwanese strength will be exhausted. That is ‘IF’, a big ‘if’, the US dares to intervene, which is unlikely given the Ukraine example.

@Ulikemyname 在台湾发生战争的情况下，主动权由中国控制。他们将选择最有利的时机开始行动。当美国设法调动其部队时，将是几周后了，可能会耗尽台湾90%的兵力。这是一个“如果”，一个很大的“如果”，美国敢干预，鉴于乌克兰的例子，这是不太可能的。

Ulikemyname

@pgdog888 You are underestimating the Japanese big time. This attitude is welcomed tho. SK cannot lose a war against NK. It is simplyy impossible. SK has a modern military while NK is litterally a military from the 50s and 60s

你太低估日本了。不过，这种态度是受欢迎的。韩国不能输掉对朝鲜的战争。这简直是不可能的。韩国拥有现代化的军队，而朝鲜军队的水平实际上还停留在50年代和60年代

MILUS

@Ulikemyname Russia already taken 60% of ukarainian territory .........................

俄罗斯已经占领了乌克兰60%的领土

Bry F

@MILUS it's actually 20%

实际上是20%

pgdog888

@Ulikemyname keep underestimating NK please. If NK is so weak what is America and it's lagdogs waiting for. Lol

@ ulikmyname 请继续低估朝鲜吧。如果朝鲜这么弱，美国还在等什么呢？哈哈

Streuner

@Ulikemyname Taiwan puts out like four times the $ into the world market than Ukraine despite being a tiny island. One of the reasons for this growth is foreign investment through companies like those technology hardware manufacturers. The plan for these countries' to pull out of Taiwan and China must be successful for allied nations to not care anymore. Also, Ukraine has had a legacy of corruption in government and military. It was not immediately clear whether or not Ukraine would just simply fold and be turned around against the West, so the vigilance of Ukraine was not obvious. Also consider the US is still healing from the wounds from the Afghanistan situation, and it was not impossible for Ukrainian aid to be used against us if UKR folded so ez. I see Taiwanese people gearing up, in both training and equipment to fight against the Mainland. So it's still up in the air whether or not Allies will come to the aid of Taiwan. But it's not a "wild assertion" lol. ofc the biggest factor in all this is the ceiling, and nuclear war. If Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Indonesia, and friends all suddenly formed a team the Chinese would probably consider working with Russia again, and on and on the escalation continues.

台湾向世界市场投入的美元是乌克兰的四倍，尽管它是个小岛。这种增长的原因之一是技术硬件制造商等公司进行的外国投资。这些国家撤出台湾地区和中国大陆的计划必须成功，盟国才会不再关心。此外，乌克兰政府和军队一直存在腐败问题。目前还不清楚乌克兰是否会就此屈服，转而反对西方，因此乌克兰的警惕性并不明显。

还要考虑到美国仍在从阿富汗局势的创伤中恢复，如果乌克兰如此崩溃，乌克兰的援助也不是不可能被用来对付我们。我看到台湾人在训练和装备上准备对抗大陆。因此，盟友是否会来援助台湾仍是悬而未决的问题。

但这不是一个“疯狂的断言”，哈哈。所有这一切中最大的因素是核战争。如果日本、澳大利亚、台湾、韩国、印度尼西亚和朋友们突然组成了一个团队，中国可能会考虑再次与俄罗斯合作，局势会不断升级。

Modsognir

@Streuner Reminder that Ukraine has a land border with NATO, and Taiwan is an island off the coast of the chinese mainland.

提醒你一下，乌克兰与北约有陆地边界，而台湾是中国大陆沿海的一个岛屿。

Modsognir

@Ulikemyname The massive amounts of artillery that is placed in the mountain ranges in hardened positions and can be activated within minutes.

大量的火炮被安置在山脉的坚固位置，可以在几分钟内启动。

Streuner

@Modsognir Very true. So similar to The UKR war, we will see missile strikes all over the place based on that proxmity. I imagine this hypothetical invasion starting with a missile barrage on military targets, followed by aviation then finally the ships. While ty that I realized it's going to be difficult for CN to hide all that stuff for a surprise attack however. The US must fail to notice this buildup of forces to be caught off guard and too spread out. But also a part of me thinks none of the forward deployed units from distant areas will be mobilized like what Russia did early 2022. China is watching the UKR war veeery close as we can imagine so I'm unsure if they will give Taiwan warning by massing 40 mile long convoys (and again its an island lol) among other things Russia did wrong.

非常正确。所以类似于乌克兰战争，我们会看到导弹袭击都是基于距离。

我想象这个假设的入侵从对军事目标的导弹密集攻击开始，然后是空军，最后是军舰。

中国很难在隐瞒住的情况下来发动突然袭击。

美国如果没有注意到这种军力集结，会猝不及防、过于分散。

但我也认为，来自遥远地区的前沿部署部队不会像俄罗斯在2022年初那样被动员起来。

中国正在密切关注乌克兰战争，我不确定他们是否会通过集结40英里长的舰队来警告台湾(它是一个岛屿，哈哈)，以及重复俄罗斯犯的其它错。

Zhe

@Ulikemyname the single US carrier group stationed in Japan needs to routinely rotate back to the US. There have always been times that no carrier group is around, so I’m pretty sure the PLA would take full advantage of that gap. Even if there is one carrier group, it will be well within strike range of thousands of anti ship missiles and I’m pretty sure it will be the first target if it intends to intervene. And guess what, when Pelosi went to Taiwan and the PLA set up major military drills around Taiwan after, the first thing the USN did was to take the carrier group out of the region and send them >1000 nautical miles away from Taiwan. So, take hint. The last thing they want is to be caught in an armed conflict without a full preparation. If US is not engaging, I bet you the lap logs like Japan and S Korea won’t dare to budge. So back to the same question: if the US intends to intervene (definitely not at the breakout of the war), how long will they need to fully mobilize. Probably more than a week.

驻扎在日本的美国航母战斗群需要定期轮换回美国。总是会有没有航母战斗群的时候，所以我很确定解放军会充分利用这一时间窗口。

即使有一个航母战斗群，它也将在数千枚反舰导弹的打击范围内，我很确定，如果它打算进行干预，它将是第一个目标。

你猜怎么着，当佩洛西去台湾时，解放军在台湾周围举行了大型军事演习，美国海军做的第一件事就是把航母战斗群带出该地区，并把他们送到距离台湾1000海里的地方。

他们最不希望的就是在没有充分准备的情况下陷入武装冲突。

如果美国不参与，我敢打赌日本和韩国这样的蠢货也不敢出手。

所以回到同样的问题：如果美国打算干预(肯定不是在战争爆发时)，他们需要多长时间才能充分动员，可能要一个星期以上。

Modsognir

@Streuner As far as I know China is holding massive military exercises anually. Perhaps those could be used as cover to assemble troops. Also, to my knowledge the force required wouldn't be that big initially anyway. The first steps would be a naval blockade of the island, coupled with missile barrages on military targets, as you said. If it's still necessary, there'd be small landing forces that would attempt to create a beachhead. All this takes time, maybe enough time to assemble the forces for a larger scale landing even if they were not assembled before hostilities are initiated. But that's just me speculating. Thing is, contrary to Ukraine, NATO cannot supply the island. And last August there were media reports that the island has only 11 days of gas storage, so it appears that they would run out of electricity very quickly, even without taking the effect of any strikes into account.

据我所知，中国每年都举行大规模军演，也许这些可以作为集结部队的掩护。

而且，据我所知，最初所需的兵力不需要多少。

第一步将是对该岛进行海上封锁，并对军事目标进行导弹袭击，正如你所说。

如果仍有必要，会有小规模的登陆部队试图建立一个滩头阵地。

所有这些都需要时间，也许有足够的时间来集结部队进行更大规模的登陆，即使他们没有在敌对行动开始前集结。

但这只是我的猜测。问题是，与乌克兰相反，北约无法向该岛提供物资。

去年8月，有媒体报道称，该岛只有能维持11天的天然气储备，

因此，即使没有考虑到任何袭击的影响，他们似乎很快就会耗尽电力。

Scoobie6789 Doo

@Ulikemyname Seoul is right next to thousand and thousands of missiles on the north’s side . Ignoring that fact is the dumbest thing ever . It’s like looking into the barrel of a gun and wondering what’s inside that hole .

首尔就在朝鲜成千上万的导弹的射程内。忽视这一事实是最愚蠢的事情。这就像看着枪管，想知道里面有什么。

Shanghai Newbison

The biggest advantage of China naval force is the ship-building capabilities in China. In wartime, China can probably build 50 055 class destroyers in a year, while other countries simply do not have that capability.

中国海军最大的优势是造船能力。在战时，中国可以在一年内建造50艘055级驱逐舰，而其他国家根本不具备这种能力。

Lena

Thank you Eurasia Naval Insight, I found this to be very educational and enlightening to see instead of the propaganda you normally see from other channels or indian comments that immediately discount all of China's ability as just ships that would fall apart. You can see that China never expected to be a superpower next year, but with it's compound growth mentality, it will build to ultimately defend it's zone indefinitely. May China be successful in their future endeavors.

感谢Eurasia Naval Insight，我发现这是非常有教育意义和启发性的，不是通常从其他渠道看到的宣传或印度的评论，这些宣传贬低了中国的能力，认为他们的军舰会散架。

你可以看到，中国从未想过明年会成为超级大国，但以它的复合增长心态，它将最终无限期地捍卫自己的区域。

祝中国在未来的努力中取得成功。

I think the real rise of China's naval power needs to be after 2030. Before that, the main force of the navy will rely on warships and shore-based aviation to launch anti-ship missiles. After 2030, it will turn to aircraft carriers as the main force. In this gap period, upgrading the carrier-based aircraft of the three exsting aircraft carriers is a fast and effective way to improve the strength. I think J35 should be developed and put into production several years ago, so that China's two ski-jump aircraft carriers will not become exhibits in the war like the Russian t14 tank.

我认为中国海军实力的真正崛起需要在2030年之后。在此之前，海军主力将依靠军舰和岸基航空兵发射反舰导弹。2030年后，将以航空母舰为主力。在这个空档期，对现有三艘航母的舰载机进行升级，是提高实力的快速有效途径。我认为歼-35应该在几年前就开始研制并投入生产，这样中国的两艘滑跃式航母就不会像俄罗斯的T14坦克那样成为战争中的展品。

Kan Ding

The fact that the ships have never been used means the navy has successfully done its job: preventing the war

事实上，这些舰艇从未被使用过，这意味着海军已经成功完成了自己的工作：阻止战争

J D

The PRC have a much more capable surface force than they get credit for, IMO, they would be formidable! Though they’re at least decades behind the US when it comes to subsurface and overall joint doctrine capabilities.

中国拥有比他们所认为的更强大的地面部队，在我看来，他们将是可怕的！尽管在水下和整体联合作战能力方面，他们至少落后美国几十年。

Traditional Music Original

No matter how this world change，China always is a peace-loving country.

无论世界如何变化，中国始终是一个爱好和平的国家。

Kapitan Kapital

It seems to me that China is begng to shift from a shore defence/A2AD strategy towards one aimed at global power projection, since that is ultimately what aircraft carriers and SSNs are used for. I think this suggests that the PLAN are broadly confident in their ability to defend Chinese waters (and those that China claims) from a US intervention.

在我看来，中国正开始从海岸防御/A2AD战略转向旨在全球力量投送的战略，这最终是航母和核潜艇的用途。

我认为这表明中国海军对他们有能力保护中国水域（以及中国声称拥有主权的水域）不受美国干预有广泛的信心。

Robert Liang

Fair assessment. Today's technology is changing too fast especially on the missiles know-how.

公正的评价。今天的技术变化太快了，特别是在导弹技术方面。

The Red Bar-Cross

Ballistic missiles aren't as big of a threat to the Chinese navy as it is to Western navies. Neither Japan nor Australia have ballistic missiles. The US' silos are all on the continent; they have no intermediate ranged ballistic missiles, certainly none that can hit a ship at sea. The US Navy is also stuck with a crappy anti-ship missile, the subsonic Harpoon II. If the Chinese DDGs can intercept supersonic jets, they should have no issue with a much slower Harpoon II.

弹道导弹对中国海军的威胁不像对西方海军那么大。日本和澳大利亚都没有弹道导弹。美国的“筒仓”都在欧洲大陆，他们没有中程弹道导弹，当然也没有可以打击海上船只的导弹。美国海军也受困于一种蹩脚的反舰导弹，亚音速鱼叉II。如果中国的DDG可以拦截超音速战机，那么对付慢得多的鱼叉II也没有问题。

Regarding sea based anti-ballistic capability, a few weeks ago I saw videos saying the HQ-26 was tested by a weapon test ship, meaning it could be equipped by the 055s soon. As of the Chinese Navy weakness, I think it will most likely to be the software, not hardware. Ships and aircrafts are relatively easy and quick to build, while crews and pilots are harder and take much longer. The US has a very early head start and lots of battle hardened men, while China is lacking in both areas. More UAVs and automation may mitigate but there will still be quite some catch up for PLAN to do.

关于海基反弹道能力，几周前我看到视频说红旗-26是由一艘武器测试船测试的，这意味着它可能很快就会装备055型驱逐舰。

至于中国海军的弱点，我认为最有可能是软件，而不是硬件。建造军舰和飞机相对容易和快速，而培训船员和飞行员则比较困难，需要更长的时间。

美国在这两方面都很有优势，有很多久经沙场的军人，而中国在这两个方面都很缺乏。

更多的无人机和自动化可能会有所弥补，但仍将有相当多的追赶计划要做。

The Tree Keeper

It's not just building their own nuclear subs and carrier aviation. Its also the coordination on how to use it for strategic and tactical purposes. China is relatively inexperienced and will take years for them to know how to use them properly in a war situation.

不仅仅是建造自己的核潜艇和航空母舰。如何将其用于战略和战术目的也很关键。中国相对缺乏经验，需要数年时间才能知道如何在战争情况下正确使用它们。

ex0duzz

China's weakness is it grew too fast ecomically, faster than its tech could keep up with. So it had to do many stop gap measures in the meantime, like procuring diesel subs or ski ramp carriers. Also China prioritised defending its shores first, so it doesn't need nuclear subs except as second strike capability in nuclear war, and 8 is enough for that, or at least for now. Within the next 10-30 years however, China will transition into a full blown blue water navy, and will be able to match or exceed USA militarily and technologically. I have no doubt about that. That is China's own stated timeline. To have a world class military by 2050. Aka be able to go toe to toe with USA in anything and everything. China's biggest weakness however is its lack of overseas bases. It doesn't matter if you have nuclear subs, you still need to replenish food and water supplies from friendly countries or your overseas bases. And based on what I've seen, China has been working on that. I predict some overseas bases in South America, and maybe another one in west coast of Africa, and some in pacific island as has been reported in the news like Solomon Islands. China needs to sign some agreements and be able to use those ports to counter USA and west, otherwise China will forever be vulnerable to blockades and other shenanigans. China cannot attack and make an enemy of every country USAs has bases in, so China will need to use diplomacy and its economic might to make those countries guarantee China the same access and also make those countries be neutral in any USA vs China war. Of course, the most important is to ramp up China's nuclear stockpile to deter such war from every happening, and if it does happen, at least China will have the firepower to take on the world and destroy it if need be. And China has been doing that, they will have 1000 nukes by end of the decade probably. The only reason no one ever talks about attacking Russia or even blockading Russian exports etc is becsuse Russia has that many nukes.

中国的弱点在于经济增长太快，但技术跟不上。

因此，它不得不在此期间采取许多临时措施，比如采购柴油潜艇或滑跃起飞航母。

此外，中国优先考虑的是保卫自己的海岸，所以它不需要核潜艇，除非是核战争中的二次打击能力，8艘就足够了，至少现在是这样。

然而，在未来10-30年内，中国将转型为一支全面发展的蓝水海军，并将在军事和技术上匹敌或超过美国。我对此毫不怀疑。

这是中国自己设定的时间表。到2050年拥有世界一流的军队。也就是能够在任何事情上与美国针锋相对。

然而，中国最大的弱点是缺乏海外基地。

如果你有核潜艇也没关系，你仍然需要从友好国家或海外基地补充食物和水。

据我所见，中方一直在为此努力。我预测在南美会有一些海外基地，可能在非洲西海岸，还有一些在太平洋岛屿，就像新闻报道的所罗门群岛一样。

中国需要签署一些协议，并能够使用这些港口来对抗美国和西方，否则中国将永远容易受到封锁和其他恶作剧的攻击。

中国不可能攻击每一个有美国基地的国家并与之为敌，所以中国需要利用外交和经济实力，让这些国家保证中国同样的准入权，并让这些国家在美中战争中保持中立。

当然，最重要的是增加中国的核储备，以阻止此类战争的发生，如果真的发生了，至少中国将拥有与世界对抗并在必要时摧毁它的火力。

中国一直在这么做，他们可能会在十年内拥有1000枚核弹。没有人谈论攻击俄罗斯或封锁俄罗斯出口的唯一原因是因为俄罗斯有很多核武器。