Debt repayment problem

债务偿还问题

PAKISTAN owes the world about $100 billion and has to repay $21bn to foreign lenders during the current fiscal year. And during the next three years, it will have to return similar or larger amounts each year totalling about $70bn.

在本财政年度，巴基斯坦欠世界大约1000亿美元，必须向外国债权人偿还210亿美元。在未来3年，巴基斯坦每年将不得不偿还类似或更大数额的资金，总计约700亿美元。

So what happens four years from now? Will we have repaid about $90bn to our creditors and owe only $10bn? Unfortunately, no. We have no resources to repay our lenders. We will just have to try to borrow from one creditor to pay off another.

那么四年后会发生什么呢?我们是否已经向债权人偿还了约900亿美元，只欠了100亿美元？不幸的是，不是。我们没有资源偿还债主。我们只能试着从一个债权人那里借钱来偿还另一个。

Hence four years from now, we will have to repay the world more than $21bn we have to pay this year, and a little more each year after that. Therefore, Pakistan will continue to slide more and more into debt, unless we try a novel idea: export more and run a current account surplus. Then and only then will we be able to pay back the world without borrowing from someone. But until then we are in a tight spot.

因此，4年后，我们将不得不向世界偿还今年必须偿还的210多亿美元，之后每年还会多一点。因此，巴基斯坦将继续陷入越来越多的债务，除非我们尝试一种新颖的想法：增加出口，实现经常账户盈余。到那时，也只有到那时，我们才能在不向别人借钱的情况下偿还债务。但在那之前，我们的处境很艰难。

To understand how we got to this predicament, let’s back up a bit. When Pakistan became part of the war against Al Qaeda and their Afghan Taliban protectors, much of our external debt owed to the West was written off. So we were left with considerably reduced debt repayments and our foreign exchange requirements shrank.

为了理解我们是如何陷入这种困境的，我们来回顾一下。当巴基斯坦成为打击基地组织和他们的阿富汗塔利班保护者的战争的一部分时，我们欠西方的大部分外债都被勾销了。因此，我们偿还的债务大大减少，我们的外汇需求也减少了。

Four years from now, we will have to repay the world more than $21bn we have to pay this year.

4年后，我们将不得不向世界偿还今年必须偿还的210多亿美元。

Our primary need for foreign exchange after 2002 was to finance our current account deficit, which is the excess of imports over exports and remittances. As we accumulated CADs every year, our debt increased every year.

2002年以后，我们对外汇的主要需求是填补我们的经常账户赤字，即进口超过出口和汇款的差额。随着我们每年积累CAD，我们的债务每年都在增加。

Remember, because we don’t run current account surpluses, and hence never earn net foreign exchange, we only borrow foreign exchange from one source to repay another and our debt is never repaid and only grows.

请记住，因为我们没有经常账户盈余，因此永远不赚取净外汇，我们只是从一个债主借入外汇来偿还另一个债主，我们的债务永远不会偿还，只会越滚越大。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

Fazal Karim

Such articles are too late. We have to pay heavy cost for our incompetency and selfishness, under the present law and order condition and failure to contain extremism, we might be forced to surrender our strategic arms and mortgage land and its produce. Feudal lobby which dominates every activity in the country is responsible. Government spends trillions to supply free water to zamindars and exempted them from tax but they failed to make Pakistan self sufficient in food.

这样的文章来得太晚了。我们必须为我们的无能和自私付出沉重的代价，在目前的法律和秩序条件下，我们不能遏制极端主义，我们可能被迫交出我们的战略武器、抵押土地和农产品。封建游说集团主导了这个国家的所有活动。政府花费数万亿美元向地主提供免费水，并免除他们的税收，但他们未能使巴基斯坦在食物上自给自足。

Ponnuvel Madheswaran

Spend more on Education, Health, Industrialisation and Employment oppertunities at the same time reduce spent on Defence, unnecessary subsidies, vote catching schemes and govt expenditures are the need of hour for the growth of south asian economy.

在教育、卫生、工业化和就业机会上投入更多，同时减少国防开支、不必要的补贴、争取选票的计划和政府支出，这是南亚经济增长所需要的。

The Man Who Knew Too Much

Great suggestions.  But you never address the real problem.    We must spend less than what we are spending now.  How?  Debt service 45% (this can not be reduced), defense 30% (this should be reduced by half), Administrative 15% (this too should be cut by half).  All imports of luxury items should be banned or taxed heavily like 500%.

但你们从来没有解决真正的问题。我们必须比现在少花钱。怎么做？还本付息45%(这个不能减)，国防30%(这个应该减半)，行政15%(这个也应该减半)。所有奢侈品进口都应该禁止，或者征收500%的重税。

Arun1

$200b amongst 230m people is less than $1000 each.

 If Pakistani women restricted themselves to two children they could work from home or outside once the children go off to school at age six doubling family income and easily pay off the debt. Also close the coal plants and go for solar and wind which is a third of the price.

2000亿美元，2.3亿人口，人均不到1000美元。

如果巴基斯坦妇女限制自己只生两个孩子，一旦孩子6岁上学，她们就可以在家或在外面工作，使家庭收入翻倍，并轻松还清债务。关闭煤电厂，转向太阳能和风能，价格是前者的三分之一。

NORI

What to do everyone knows. How to do is the big puzzle. Please discuss that.

该怎么做大家都知道，怎么做是个大难题。请讨论一下。

Gautom

This man is the most competent person in all of Pakistan to solve the fiscal crisis. Irony is that he’s not even a   part of the government. With PTI all but sure to come back to power, Pakistan’s miseries are only going to multiply.

他是全巴基斯坦最有能力解决财政危机的人。讽刺的是，他甚至不是政府的一员。随着PTI几乎肯定会重新掌权，巴基斯坦的苦难只会成倍增加。

Dadeeji

Our economic situation IS desperate.  The only way to ameliorate it is to make some painful choices.  Increasing exports, improving productivity, expanding the tax base (by bringing agricultural sector and trade into the tax net and improving tax collection) will take time.  The fastest way to get out of the hole is sell the state enterprises, reduce public expenditures by reducing defense spending and miscellaneous projects that could be shelved for future.

我们的经济状况令人绝望。改善它的唯一方法就是做出一些痛苦的选择。增加出口、提高生产率、扩大税基(通过将农业部门和贸易纳入税收网络并改善税收征管)，这将需要时间。摆脱困境的最快方法是出售国有企业，通过削减国防开支和未来可能被搁置的杂项项目来减少公共支出。

Javed Khan Aslam

Sir, though our economy is in doldrums but not that much gloomy as you have described.  With help from our brotherly countries, all wether friend China and global help of more than 10 billions,  surely we will overcome all the problems  you have described. Let me remind you that our country will become 6th largest economy in the world sooner than later and presently we are the only nuclear power nation and leader among / of the ummah. It seems you have taken a very pessimistic view.  Thanks.

先生，我们的经济虽然不景气，但并没有您说的那么不景气。在兄弟国家的帮助下，有中国朋友的帮助，有全球100多亿美元的帮助，我们一定能够克服你所说的所有问题。我提醒你，我们的国家迟早会成为世界第六大经济体，我们还是核国家。看来你的看法很悲观。

Ma

So the nice and all knowing guy is admitting that the noise they were making before regime change last year about the poor performance of economy under Ik was all lie.

They had already brought the country down before IK came to power

所以这个善良且无所不知的家伙承认，他们在去年政权更迭之前制造的关于伊姆兰领导下经济表现糟糕的言论都是谎言。在伊姆兰掌权之前，他们已经把这个国家搞垮了

E.Ravi Kumar

The two most blunders committed by Pakistan are (1) Excess Defence Expenditure (2) Uncontrolled Population Growth. Due to Excess Defence Expenditure, now Government don't have money to spend on anything & Once food surplus state, Pakistan has become Food Importer due to Excess Population. In addition to these things recent floods are major set back to the economy. Now situation has become from BAD to WORST.

巴基斯坦犯下的两个最大错误是

(1) 过度的国防开支

(2) 不受控制的人口增长。

由于过度的国防开支，现在政府没有钱投在项目上。

巴基斯坦曾经是粮食过剩的国家，由于人口过剩，巴基斯坦已经成为粮食进口国。

除此之外，最近的洪灾严重阻碍了经济发展。现在的情况已经越来越糟了。

Golu

Export more... really? But what? Donkeys??

多出口，真的吗？但是出口什么呢？驴吗？

Golu

Other than cheap labour and donkeys,  Pakistan has no exports.  World requires neither of them.

除了廉价劳动力和驴，巴基斯坦没有什么可出口的，但这两样世界都不需要。

E.Ravi Kumar

@Arun1 , sir, I want to share HEIGHT of IGNORANCE about Family Planning in Pakistan. One famous cricketer, who is recently retired had FIVE children.  If a Elite person like him behave in such a irresponsible way, you can think of about masses.  

我想分享巴基斯坦对计划生育的高度无知。一位最近退役的著名板球运动员有五个孩子。如果一个像他这样的精英都这么不负责任，你可以想想大众。

Hindu

To summarize 230 million Pakistanis cannot produce anything of value to export.

总而言之，2.3亿巴基斯坦人无法生产任何有价值的产品供出口

Bazinga

Reading this article one appreciates the macroeconomic stability, governmental spending on infrastructure and lack of populism seen in India for over a decade. This has resulted in compounded growth

读了这篇文章，你会欣赏印度宏观经济的稳定，政府在基础设施上的支出，以及十多年来缺乏民粹主义，这促成了复合增长

Hindu

It only takes exports of 200 million donkeys at $100 each to earn $20 billion a year. Iron brother China has an enormous appetite for donkeys. This should be priority number one to erase the external debt of $100 billion over the next five years.

每年只要出口2亿头驴，每头100美元，就能赚200亿美元。铁哥们中国对驴有的需求很大，这应该是在未来五年内还清1000亿美元外债的最佳办法。

Block piston

Loser always has an.excuse Winner always has a plan

失败者总有借口，成功者总有计划

E.Ravi Kumar

Politicians are TWO TYPE (1) LEADERS like Stalin, former USSR President, under his Leadership USSR had become SUPER Power within 20 years (2) FOLLOWER like Nehru, who copied FIVE YEAR plans of Stalin and became Architect of Modern INDIA. PAKISTAN, unfortunately never had atleast ONE follower.

政治家有两种：

(1)前苏联总统斯大林这样的领导人，在他的领导下，苏联在20年内成为超级大国

(2)尼赫鲁这样的追随者，他复制了斯大林的五年计划，成为现代印度的建筑师。

至于巴基斯坦，不幸的是，从未有过至少一个追随者。

Truth be told

Thank you Imran Khan for RECORD BORROWING during his tenure.

感谢伊姆兰·汗在任期间创纪录的借款。

Constantine

Am utterly shameless nation

一个无耻的国家

Ashok Kumar

Pakistan cannot recover from this unless a revolution takes place. Pakistan been needs a revolutionary leader.

除非发生革命，否则巴基斯坦无法从中恢复。巴基斯坦一直需要一位革命领袖。

Az_Iz

Borrowing for investment is not a problem. But borrowing for consumption is the problem. And that is what the politicians have done, to create superficial growth and feel good factor, which is the easy way, to run the country.

借钱投资没有问题，但是为了消费而借款才是问题所在，这就是政客们所做的，创造表面的增长和感觉良好的因素，这是管理国家的简单方法。

Max

Pakistan needs a tough business minded leader who will make hard decisions, kinda like Modi.

巴基斯坦需要一个强硬的有商业头脑的领导人，他能做出艰难的决定，就像莫迪那样的。