Quora: 如果普京想动用核武器，中国会支持俄罗斯吗

Will China back Russia to use nukes when Putin decides to do so?

如果普京想动用核武器，中国会支持俄罗斯吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Russia and Ukraine conflict

Answered by Jay Dee

Not a snowball's chance in Hell.

绝无可能。

Truth About Russia

Answered by Michael Priv

Note that China does not really back Russia now. All that happened was China refused to condemn Russia. There are no Chinese troops or hardware or any supplies on Russian side in Ukraine.

要知道，中国现在并非真的支持俄罗斯。中国只是不想出面谴责俄罗斯罢了。乌克兰战争中，中国并没有提供任何兵力、硬件和物资支援俄罗斯。

John Stevens

Doubtful China is very displeased with how Putin is behaving to the point where they can see Putin as a hindrance to their national interest, a stronger more unified NATO could impede China's own territorial claims.

So far in Putin's war China has not sent a single soldier, or any ammo to Russia in fact no military help of any kind I can't see that policy changing anytime soon.

我怀疑中国对普京的行为是很不满的，他们可能已经把普京视为国家利益的障碍了，一个更强大、更统一的北约可能会妨碍中国自己的领土主张。

截止目前，中国没有为普京发起的战争派遣过一名士兵、提供过任何弹药，事实上，中国并没有提供过任何形式的军事帮助，这种政策短时间内也不会改变。

Truth About Russia

Answered by William Sheffield

Unlikely. I am not up to date on all the treaty obligations between Russia and China, but China would not be that foolish.

不太可能。虽然我也不清楚俄中之间有没有签订过什么条约，但中国才不会那么蠢呢。

Alex Rowan

BikerJan 9

On the contrary, they will be horrified.

They badly want the Ukraine war to stop, not get escalated, because it is bad for business.

China does 2/3 of a $trillion trade a year with The West, thanks to globalisation. They see this war as threatening to put that process into reverse.

恰好相反，他们很担心。

他们非常希望俄乌停火，不让局势步步升级，因为这对经济贸易没有好处。

在全球化背景下，中国每年与西方的贸易额占到了六七千亿美元。他们认为这场战争可能会改变这一局面。

Thanks to Russia’s misbehaviour, Western manufacturers are starting to mistrust non-de ocratic countries and are considering the transfer of production to more reliable states or even bringing it home.

因为俄罗斯的不当行为，西方制造商对非皿煮国家失去信心，开始考虑将生产转移到更可靠的国家，甚至重归本国境内。

THE BATTLE FOR UKRAINE

Answered by Dmytro Gapeyev

Absolutely not.

China will blame Russia in the UN for doing it if Russia ventures.

绝对不会。

如果俄罗斯胆敢这样做，中国会在联合国谴责俄罗斯。

THE BATTLE FOR UKRAINE

Answered by Forrest Powers

No because Putin isn't going to nuke anyone. This war is going to continue on though as a result. So much for my pipe dream of Russians overthrowing their government, evidently most of them support Putin in this special terrorist operation. It's a damn shame more and more innocent lives are going to be lost but this fight can't be stopped until Russia is defeated.

不，因为普京是不会动用核武器的。这场战争一时半会停不了。我对俄罗斯人推番政府的希望显然是白日做梦，大多数俄罗斯人在这次特别的恐怖行动中都支持普京。越来越多生命白白牺牲，太可惜了，但除非俄罗斯战败，否则这场战争无法停止。

Sylvain Saurel

I don't think so. Of course, no one can predict anything as the invasion of Ukraine decided by Putin against common sense in February 2022 has shown it well.

However, it seems that China, but also India, have already reminded publicly several times that the use of a Russian nuclear weapon in Ukraine was a red line that Putin should not cross.

Putin knows this.

Putin would have no reason to use this nuclear weapon in Ukraine anyway. Putin is occupying a neighboring country. Putin has no reason to justify the use of Russian nuclear weapons. Russia is not in danger, and never has been.

我不这么看。当然，没有人能预测任何事情，因为普京在2022年2月决定入侵乌克兰，令人大跌眼镜，就很好地证明了这一点。

不过中国和印度似乎已经多次公开提醒，俄罗斯在乌克兰使用核武器是普京不能逾越的红线。

普京也深知这一点。

无论如何，普京都没有理由对乌克兰使用核武器。普京正在侵占邻国。普京没有理由让俄罗斯名正言顺地动用核武器。俄罗斯并没有处于危难之中，以前也不曾有过。

The one who endangers Russia is Putin and not Ukraine or NATO as Putin claims.

The reason why Putin has still not used nuclear weapons in Ukraine despite all his threats is also because he is afraid that the chain of execution leading to the use of nuclear weapons simply does not work.

Putin has a red button to press in the collective imagination but in reality, at the end of the day, it is human beings who have to do it and there is a strong chance that they will not obey the dr of the Kremlin if he thinks of doing such a folly. For Putin, this would be a complete disavowal. A risk that he can no longer afford to take as his power is increasingly threatened in Russia due to his disastrous choices for the future of the country.

俄罗斯真正的危险正是普京，而非普京声称的乌克兰或北约。

普京不断威胁，但至今仍未在乌克兰使用核武器的原因，也是担心动用核武器的执行链无法真正执行。

在众人的想象中，普京有个红色的按钮可以按，但事实上按按钮的只能是全人类，如果克里姆林宫的独才者想做这样的蠢事，其他人很有可能不会听从命令。因为他给俄罗斯的未来作出了灾难性的选择，他在俄罗斯的权力地位受到越来越大的质疑，他无法承担这样的风险。

THE BATTLE FOR UKRAINE

Answered by Lewis Messer

I don’t believe any civilized nation would support that kind of action and I would put China in that group. That will open a “Pandora’s Box” that no reasonable person would like to see opened. Let’s not forget that the fall out does not necessarily stay where the bomb is dropped which is a lesson learned in Chernobyl also in Ukraine. The wind also blows toward Russia and other countries in the East.

我相信任何文明国家都不会支持这种行动，中国也是其中之一。因为这么做会打开“潘多拉魔盒”，任何理智的人都不会愿意看到这种情况。我们别忘了，核泄漏物不会只留在炸弹投掷之处，这是乌克兰切尔诺贝利给人类的教训。风也会吹向俄罗斯和其他东方国家。

THE BATTLE FOR UKRAINE

Answered by Rafael

China has no interest in backing Russia, they have no dog on the fight. China’s only interest is saving their own face, which China is all about that. Saving “face” is a long tradition. China does not want to jump into the losing side as that would make them look weak, which is not a good strategy. So far China has turned their back on Russia, as we are informed. There could be some backdoor dealing of which we are unaware. China’s best move is to “stay the hell out of the conflict”!

Additionally, China has its own bone to pick relative to Taiwan. They see our support for Ukraine and how that would translate into our support for Taiwan. Had we not supported Ukraine as we are, China would try to invade Taiwan because they see us as weak. Surprise, surprise. china’s posture is they are starting out on their back foot. China sees itself forewarned!

中国没有兴趣支持俄罗斯，他们并没有参与这场战争。中国只想保住自己的面子，他们一贯都是这么做的。中国不想跟失败的一方扯上关系，这会让他们有失体面，这并非上策。据我们所知，到目前为止，中国已经背弃了俄罗斯。也许他们之间有我们不知道的幕后交易。中国最好的做法就是“远离冲突”！

此外，中国在台湾问题上也面临挑战。他们看到了我们对乌克兰的支持，有可能未来也会转化为对台湾的支持。如果我们没有像现在这样支持乌克兰，中国就会认为我们很软弱，从而武统台湾。中国现在的表现是开始处于劣势了，他们看到自己被警告了！

Michael McClennen

Military skeptic10mo

What would happen if Russia started a nuclear war?

Nobody knows the answer to this question. That is the literal truth. Lots of people have theories about what would happen, but nobody knows for certain. All of our estimates about the results of a nuclear war could be wrong, in either direction. It might either be much less disastrous for the world than we feared, or it might be even worse than we thought it would be.

That is what makes the prospect so scary: nobody knows what the result would look like.

如果俄罗斯发动核战争会发生什么？

没有人知道这个问题的确切答案。只能停留在字面上。对于会发生什么，很多人都有自己的推测，但没有人知道确切的答案。我们对核战争结果的种种预测可能都是错误的，无论谁输谁赢。核战争给世界带来的灾难可能比我们担心的要小得多，也可能比我们想象的还要糟糕许多。

这就是未来如此可怕的原因：没有人知道结果究竟会是什么样子。

THE BATTLE FOR UKRAINE

Answered by Vixdname

Very doubtful.

China have already warned about the use of nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Make no mistake, China will always put themselves first and if Russia use a nuke, the repercussions for them will be huge and far reaching, and anyone who backs them will be badly affected too, so China, considering the amount of business they do with the EU etc will never put that trade at risk, just to back putin.

相当存疑。

中国已经对在这场冲突中使用核武器提出了警告。

毋庸置疑，中国肯定会把自己放在首位，如果俄罗斯动用核武器，对中国的影响将会十分巨大而深远，支持他们的人都会受到严重影响，所以考虑到他们与欧盟等国的贸易体量，中国永远都不会因为支持普京而将贸易置于危险之中。

China (and India) are buying their oil etc from Russia for massive discounts because they know putin desperately needs all the cash he can get to fund his war, they're capitalising on his desperation, not doing him any favours, they, as China always does, are looking after their own interests.

Lastly, China most certainly will not back Russia militarily either, Russia are on their own in that scenario.

中国(和印度)享受着巨大的折扣从俄罗斯购买石油等物资，他们知道普京迫切需要现金来开战，他们利用普京的绝望，没有提供任何帮助，他们就像中国一贯做的那样照顾自己的利益。

最后，中国肯定也不会在军事上支持俄罗斯，俄罗斯在那种情况下只能靠自己了。

Kaiser Kuo

Marc Bodnick, Former Stanford PhD student in Politics7y

How many nuclear weapons does China have?

According to a 2014 paper by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris called "Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2014" in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, China has an estimated 250 nuclear weapons. You can report for free here: Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2014

中国有多少核武器？

根据汉斯·M·克里斯滕森和罗伯特·S·诺里斯2014年在《原子科学家公报》上发表的一篇题为《2014年全球核武器部署》的论文，中国估计拥有250枚核武器。你可以看报告：《2014年全球核武器部署》。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

Answered by Robert Vannrox

Yes.

For multiple reasons.

[1] Russia and China have formed a tight alliance; one that has never been seen before on the planet. This tight alliance is one with shared values, shared objectives, and shared beliefs. If you are unaware of this new unity, then you can read all about it in the joint Russia and Chinese declaration.

是的。

原因有很多。

一、俄罗斯和中国已经结成了紧密的联盟；这是史无前例的紧密联盟。这种紧密的联盟有着共同的价值观、共同的目标和共同的信念。如果你不了解，可以在俄罗斯和中国的联合声明中找到答案。

[2] and Putin are personal friends. They communicate though public and private channels quite often.

二、两国领导人是亲密的朋友。他们经常通过公开和私人途径保持联络。

[3] Chinese military doctrine does not make a distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons. As far as differences in type of weaponry that is a Christian concept. Like when the Pope banned the crossbow as inhumane. China and Russia are the descendants of Genghis Khan, and when they fight a war, they play to win.

China’s nuclear strategy centers on deterrence through “assured retaliation,” which is the ability to survive an initial attack and retaliate with nuclear strikes that inflict unacceptable damage on the attacker. In accordance with this strategy, a key feature of China’s nuclear posture is that it maintains a low alert level.

三、中国的军事理论没有区分常规武器和核武器。武器的不同类型是基督教的概念。比如教皇禁止使用十字弓，认为它不人道。中国和俄罗斯是成吉思汗的后代，打仗时就是要赢。

中国的核战略以威慑为核心，通过“有把握的报复”，即扛住首波攻击，并以核打击进行报复，对攻击者造成无法挽救的伤害。根据这一战略，中国核立场的关键特点就是保持低警戒水平。

[4] China cannot risk a military loss by Russia. The United States is aggressively positing itself for a global war against Asia. China sees this directly and will not all it allow Russia to lose.

四、中国无法承担俄罗斯战败的风险。美国正在积极地筹备一场针对亚洲的全球战争。中国对这一点十分清楚，不会让俄罗斯战败。

[5] China and Russia share military intelligence. Both militaries have liaison officers in all the headquarters and military decision centers. If one nation needs help, the other comes to it’s aid.

五、中国和俄罗斯共享军事情报。两国军队在所有总部和军事决策中心都设有联络官。如果一国需要帮助，另一国就会伸出援手。

Ok, then. This is the REAL situation.

If Russia asked for China support in a military operation, you can well expect China to fully support Russia without hesitation. This is inclusive of the use of nuclear weapons.

以上就是事实情况。

如果俄罗斯在军事行动中要求中国支持，中国会毫不犹豫地全力支持俄罗斯，使用核武器也不在话下。