Economy to grow 6-6.8% next year, recovery complete: Annual Economic Survey

年度经济调查：明年印度经济将增长6-6.8%，完全复苏

The annual Economic Survey for 2022-23 projected the economy to grow by somewhere between 6% and 6.8%, depending on global factors in 2023-24, with 6.5% a baseline expectation.

《2022-2023年度经济调查》预计，2023-2024年度印度经济增长将在6%至6.8%之间，取决于全球因素，基线预期为6.5%。

While admitting that the world economy faces considerable uncertainty that could affect India’s growth, the survey struck a confident note, mirroring the sunny posture of the government, which plans to showcase the recovery on its watch as one of the main pitches for the 2024 polls. It maintained that recovery from the multiple hits sustained due to the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent policy-induced inflationary pressures globally is “complete” in India, which has weathered the storm better than most and is poised to resume the pre-Covid growth trajectory.

虽然承认世界经济面临相当大的不确定性，可能会影响印度的增长，但这项调查显示出了自信，反映了政府的乐观态度，现任政府计划在其任期内推动经济复苏，作为2024年大选的主要宣传内容之一。报告认为，印度已经从疫情、俄乌战争以及随后全球政策引发的通胀压力所造成的多重打击中“完全”复苏，印度比大多数国家更好地经受住了这场风暴，并有望恢复新冠疫情前的增长轨迹。

While the Centre had to move away from the path of fiscal consolidation in recent years to focus on reviving growth, the survey said the planned return to fiscal discipline would translate into a stimulus by lowering interest rates.

尽管近年来，印度中央政府不得不放弃财政整顿的道路，转而推动恢复增长，但调查显示，恢复财政纪律的计划将转化为降低利率的刺激措施。

A key part of the credit for this, the survey said, should go to the rapid vaccination drive. “The near-universal coverage of vaccination was the single most important reason that brought people out to the streets to re-experience the ‘bazaar’,” the survey said while adding contact-based service providers like restaurants, malls, cinemas and tourist destinations were thus able to run up a thriving business, contributing to the revival of consumer sentiments.

调查称，这其中的一个关键部分应该归功于快速的疫苗接种运动。调查称：“几乎全民接种疫苗是促使人们走上街头重新体验‘集市’的最重要原因。”调查还称，餐馆、商场、电影院和旅游目的地等因此能够蓬勃发展，有助于重振消费者情绪。

The boost in consumer sentiments allowed private consumption to “seamlessly” replace export stimuli as the leading driver of growth at a time when the global slowdown was making its impact felt on India’s exports too. The survey also credited capital expenditure by the government for “crowding in” private investment, thereby providing another growth engine not just in the current year but in years to come.

在全球经济放缓对印度出口也产生影响之际，消费者信心的提振使得私人消费“无缝”地取代出口，成为经济增长的主要推动力。调查还认为政府的资本支出“吸引”了私人投资，从而不仅在今年，而且在未来几年提供了另一个增长引擎。

Government schemes like Emergency Credit-Linked Guarantee Scheme helped cushion the impact of the downturn on small and medium enterprises and hence, enabled them to create jobs, it said.

报告称，紧急信贷关联担保计划等政府计划有助于缓解经济低迷对中小企业的影响，从而使它们能够创造就业机会。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

Vladendra Motin•Russia•3 hours ago

Future tense. To grow. Let's see.

将来时态，将会增长。让我们拭目以待。

kasuti Parica

Been the main point, and the finances have always that they should be thinking about it, all the time and make it quite prosperous

财政一直都是他们应该考虑的问题，让经济繁荣起来

M Saxena

The key word is based on "global factors" . If recession hits US and Europe, then all exports will take a hit while imports can’t be curtailed. If "global factors’ are all right then the rest of the world will be doing equally well albeit each at thier own historic growth rates. So much optimism but no talks of jobs and industry growth. Jusst share price of Adanis can’t determine India’s growth.

关键词是基于“全球因素”。如果美国和欧洲陷入衰退，那么所有的出口都将受到打击，而进口却无法减少。如果“全球因素”都是这样，那么世界其他地区也会表现得同样好，尽管每个国家都有各自的历史增长率。如此乐观，却没有谈及就业和行业增长，仅仅是阿达尼的股价并不能决定印度的增长。

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla

Had pandemic been not there India would have been 5 trillion $ economy by 2025. 6-8% growth rate is phenomenal at a time where global economy is expected to undergo recession. Precious time was wasted from 2004 - 2014 when the entire world was growing faster China has added 7 trillion $ to its economy

如果没有疫情，到2025年印度的经济规模将达到5万亿美元。在全球经济预计将陷入衰退的情况下，6-8%的增长率是惊人的。从2004年到2014年，宝贵的时间被浪费了，当时世界经济形势一片大好，中国的经济规模增长了7万亿美元

Krishan Kumar Totlani•Jaipur

India is seen to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the world faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled on Tuesday said.

周二发布的《2022-2023年经济展望》称，在从4月开始的财年，印度经济增速预计将放缓至6.5%，但由于印度在应对世界面临的一系列非同寻常的挑战方面表现更好，印度仍将是全球增长最快的主要经济体。

Prasanna Kumar

Modi made Narayan Rane (a peon) as the Minister of MSME !!! No doubt MSME has shut shop in India!!!

莫迪让纳拉扬·雷恩(一个日工)担任中小微企业部长！毫无疑问，中小微企业已经关闭了在印度的工厂！

0 0 •Reply•Flag

Fake surveys

假的

4 0 •Reply•Flag

seetaraman is a bogus finance minister.....actually most of the ministers in modi government are foolish ....they just know how to incite people ,how to make hateful statements ......that may be good for wng elections but not good for running a country .

西塔拉曼是不称职的财政部长。事实上，莫迪政府的大多数部长都是愚蠢的....他们只知道如何煽动人们，如何发表仇恨言论。这可能有利于赢得选举，但不利于治理国家。

1 1 •Reply•Flag

All will grow next year … but mam we have to survive till that time .. what about this year

明年大家都会增长，但是我们必须活到那个时候。那今年呢?

1 0 •Reply•Flag

Our FM echoed same sentiments expressed by IMF & World Bank regarding India's economy growth in next FY. However these optimistic predictions are causing much heartburn for opposition parties. Their followers are on rampage in this column. Well, facts are fact. No amount of abusing Modi will garner votes for them.

我们的财政部长对印度下财年经济增长表达了和国际货币基金组织和世界银行同样的看法。然而，这些乐观的预测却让反对党大为头疼。他们的追随者暴跳如雷，事实就是事实，再怎么辱骂莫迪也不会为他们赢得选票

2 1 •Reply•Flag

Haha...they are the champions of lies .

哈哈…他们是撒谎冠军。

5 2 •Reply•Flag

Modiji will give Middle Class a new simpler tax slab which will effectively increase their tax outgo. Also , some cess to support welfare before elections can be expected.

莫迪将给中产阶级出台一个新的更简单的税种，这将有效地增加他们的税款。此外，在选举前还会有一些支持福利的拨款。

Prasanna Kumar

How did they arrive at 6 - 6.8%??? Was it a scientific formula or did Mahatna Fekendra decide the number?

是怎么达到6 - 6.8%的？是通过一个科学公式算出来的？还是上面决定的数字?

Prasanna Kumar

Illiterate idiot like you will never understand. Leave it, just follow your boss Pappu.

像你这样的文盲永远不会明白。别管了，跟着你老板拉胡尔就行了。

Userd•Mumbai

India is in safe hands of Modiji and BJP. It is a nationalist and patriotic Govt. at Centre.

印度在莫迪和人民党的安全掌控之下。这是一个民族主义的、爱国的政府。

9 4 •Reply•Flag

Like then slogan “ India shining” but ordinary folks asking why am i not shining.

就像当时的口号“印度大放光芒”一样，但普通民众问：我的日子为什么不好过。

2 4 •Reply•Flag

I am sure till the time you are there we will grow by at least 2000%. Like in past years.

我相信，只要你在，我们至少会增长2000%，就像过去几年一样。

0 0 •Reply•Flag

Bhai Adani was richest no 3 but in terms of paying tax, he stands nowhere….. you dont beed Hidenburg to see this ……..,The govt is nothing but lies lies and lies

阿达尼的财富排名第三，但在纳税方面，他没有排名，政府除了撒谎，什么都不干

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