Japan and the Netherlands agreed with the U.S. to restrict exports of advanced chip-manufacturing equipment to China. How will it hurt China's chip industry?

日本和荷兰同意美国限制向中国出口先进半导体设备，此举会如何损害中国的芯片产业？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Tony Tan

That's what China has wanted all along for her own chip industry to grow strong. The WTO would have stopped China but fortunately China can now do it without violating the WTO rules. This is going to be another saga like the space technology where the US banned China and made China strong and self sufficient.

这正是中国一直希望自己的芯片产业发展壮大的原因。世贸组织本来可以阻止中国，幸运的是，中国现在可以在不违反世贸组织规则的情况下发展芯片产业。这是类似太空技术的另一个传奇，之前美国禁止中国获取太空技术，逼得中国强大起来，研发出自己的太空技术

Bill Zhang

Insignificant for now. But in a long run, China will lead in semiconductor industry and at that time China will make all these asshole companies bankrupt.

现在无关紧要。但从长远来看，中国半导体行业以后会领先的，届时在中国的竞争下，所有这些混蛋公司都会破产的。

David Barry

How sad, childish, racist, pompous, pathetic and cowardly these three nation behave.

China and the world will advance and the white supremacist wimps will dig themselves a pit.

The world needs to move on, away from western snobbery. Move on.

这三个国家的行为多么可悲、幼稚、种族主义、浮夸、可悲和懦弱。

中国和世界都会进步，白人至上主义的懦夫们会自掘坟墓。

世界需要前进，远离西方的势利。继续前进。

JenHo

The US is truly a clown..instead of continuing to gain and get rich through China, it choose to destroy China and the thing is how come the US government didn't realise that Chinese Nationals are way too bright and determine a match for them. The Chinese Nationals have been top the STEM subjects , their quick setting up of their space station and satellites, the 5G , turning of part of the desert into arable land to reduce the advancement of the desert, uplifting of all the poor, those impressive engineering feats , the fast tracking to green technology, the quick response to CoVID outbreak, and more.. never read the signs?

Why is the US still so confident that it could outdo China when it has already lost in so many fields?

The Chinese will eventually be self sufficient in chips, it is a matter of time. The Peking University is doing research on high end nano chips . Anyway the bigger chips of 14 nano which are mostly in use in EVs are the ones most needed, and they are produced in China:—.

美国真是个小丑，他不是继续赚中国的钱，而是选择打击中国，问题是美国政府为什么没有意识到中国国民太聪明了，是一个对手。

中国人一直是STEM学科的佼佼者，他们快速建立了自己的空间站和卫星，5G，将部分沙漠改造成了耕地，退沙还林，全民扶贫，这些令人印象深刻的工程成就，绿色技术的快速发展，对新冠疫情的快速反应等等。

为什么美国在这么多领域都已经失败了，却仍然如此自信，能够超越中国？

中国人最终会在芯片方面自给自足，这是时间问题。北京大学正在研究高端纳米芯片。无论如何，主要用于电动汽车的14纳米以上的芯片是最需要的，在中国生产

Bora Taş

Considering that Bloomberg has a history of lying on this topic, I am still waiting for official confirmation which didn’t come.

The Dutch PM said these:

Those talks have been going on for a long time and we're not saying anything about it," Rutte said. "It's really in doubt that if something comes out of them, that it will be very visible. We'll have to see."

Other than this, my verdict is the same. This is just economic warfare from the US side and they have proven the chinese’s long standing concerns true. Chinese govt was always suspicious of the dependability of foreign technology. Their concerns were dismissed by the Chinese private sector and foreigners. Now nobody in China could dispute the said concerns. China will eventually catch up. That’s what will happen. We have seen similar things regarding the space industry too.

考虑到彭博社在这个话题上有撒谎的历史，我仍在等待官方的确认，但没有得到证实。

荷兰首相说：“这些谈判已经进行了很长一段时间，我们对此只字不提。如果有什么消息传出，都会知道的。”。我们得拭目以待。"

除此之外，我的判断是一样的。这只是美国方面的经济战，他们证明了中国长期以来的担忧是正确的。中国一直对外国技术的依赖持怀疑态度。中国私营部门和外国人对这些担忧不屑一顾。现在，中国没有人可以质疑上述担忧。中国终将迎头赶上。这是必然的。我们在航天工业也看到了类似的情况

Steven Mak

This would only hurt China if and only if the Chinese are incapable of doing it themselves. However, we have seen the Chinese will overcome the obstacle and become the winner in the end.

There will not be a winner in this attack, and China will eventually be totally independent of Western technology.

只有中国人自己没有能力搞出芯片，此举才能打疼中国。然而，我们已经看到中国人会克服障碍，最终成为胜利者。

这次攻击不会有赢家，中国最终将完全独立于西方技术。

Eric Wang

I only care about who gets the last laugh. It may be too early to tell, but the many underlying key factors we have seen that are vital to wng long-term competition are obviously not in US’s favor. I’m talking about the will and gumption, governing efficiency, unity, education, ingenuity etc.. We’ll see.

我只在乎谁笑到最后。现在说起来可能还为时过早，但我们已经看到的对赢得长期竞争至关重要的许多潜在关键因素显然不利于美国。我说的是意志和进取心、治理效率、团结、教育、创造力等。让我们拭目以待。

Brady Milton

Every time the world denies China something they develop it themselves. Usually better and with improvements and definitely cheaper. Then they start selling it back to the world at half cost which destroys the Private enterprise first making it. Thank you America for hel China develop their own self sufficiency and for shooting yourself in the foot again

每当世界否定中国时，他们都会自己发展起来。通常发展得更好，有改进，而且价格更便宜

然后，他们开始以一半的价格将其出售给世界，打趴其他国家的私营企业。

感谢美国逼得中国实现自给自足

US We

I’m not really sure what’s in it for the Netherlands, even Japan for that manner.

These China bans take out a chunk of revenue needed to continue operations in an extremely increasingly expensive industry.

If they want the other markers to replace the Chinese one, it doesn’t seem likely as the whole environment of the internet of things with the other countries are too integrated with China.

Most, virtually all of the concerns regarding the military applications are done with the lesser nodes, they can be made with less advanced equipment (that’s already been sold and is in use) and something the Chinese tech industry can more or less do on their own. The Dutch have mentioned this multiple times.

So with that said, it must be something deeply political because the technical and economic explanations don’t hold.

As in, there is some political favors or leverage used on both Japan and the Netherlands to go along with this. I’m just not sure what was used on the Netherlands, and what more was used on Japan to go along with it.

我真的不知道荷兰，甚至日本这样做有什么好处。

这些针对中国的禁令，削减了在一个日益昂贵的行业继续运营所需的大部分收入。

如果他们想用其他市场物取代中国市场，这似乎不太可能，因为其他国家的整个环境与中国太过融合。

大多数，几乎所有关于军事应用的担忧都是徒劳的，它们可以用较不先进的设备（已经售出并在使用中）制造，而中国科技行业或多或少可以自己做。荷兰人多次提到这一点。

因此，尽管如此，这一定是一个深刻的政治问题，从技术和经济的角度解释是不成立的。

正如所述，日本和荷兰都利用了一些政治上的支持或杠杆来解释这一点。我只是不知道荷兰用了什么，日本用了什么来配合它

Anil Anthony Pais

China had advanced so far ahead of America and the Netherlands, the west was forced to play dirty and chop the Chinese at the knees.

it will be interesting to see if the Chinese are good enough to overcome the west kneecap. They had better if they want to succeed.

this is normal competition, we see this game play out every day in our own lives. Anyone who gets on a soap box and condemns any party’s tactics is a child.

中国已经领先于美国和荷兰，西方被迫装模作样

看看中国人是否有能力战胜西方，这是一件有趣的事情。如果想成功，就必须做得更好

这是正常的比赛，我们每天都看到这样的比赛在我们生活中上演。

L.K.

It would hurt China in short term but fail in long term.

It's a good deal for the US. The US doesn't have any advantage in chip production. If the US and its "allies" succeed in containing China in the chip production industry, then the US will win. If it fails, the US will also win. The dead bodies of it’s a allies can feed the US.

短期内能伤害中国，但在长期内会失败。

这对美国来说是一笔好交易。美国在芯片生产方面没有任何优势。如果美国及其“盟友”在芯片生产行业成功遏制了中国，那么美国将获胜。如果失败，美国也将获胜。盟友的尸体可以养活美国。

Paul Lee

Since Japan and Netherlands did not disclose the detail of the restrictions, it could just be a face-saving measure for the US when in reality there’s hardly any consequential restrictions. We won’t know till later. But even if the restrictions are significant, I think China will be fine in the long run.

There are simply too many smart people in China to anyone to stop its rise. If you’ve ever competed in math in high school, you know this. If you went to a top university in the US (especially grad school), and worked with leading faculties, you know how much of them are Chinese, with “Peking University” or “Tsinghua University” on their CVs. If you ever worked in Silicon Valley or at the “FAANG” companies, you know how many Chinese are there.

There’s a reason why the CEO of ASML thinks the chip restrictions will only cause China to develop its own supply chain. There’s a reason why smart people like Elon Musk and Bill Gates think highly of China.

You see, China is a place where intellectual pursuit are valued, and there are simply too much smart people. Even the rural old folks playing Chinese chess on the street has IQ that put the typical US politician to shame.

So while I’m not an expert on semiconductor fabrication, I do know that Chinese are smart, and they have been through tougher challenges.

由于日本和荷兰没有披露限制的细节，这可能只是美国的一个面子措施，而实际上几乎没有任何相应的限制。我们要等一会儿才能知道。但即使这些限制很重要，我认为从长远来看，中国也不会有事。

中国有太多聪明人，任何人都无法阻止她的崛起。如果你在高中参加过数学竞赛，你就知道这一点。如果你去了美国顶尖大学（尤其是研究生院），并与顶尖的学院合作，你就会知道他们中有多少是中国人，简历上写着“北京大学”或“清华大学”。如果你曾经在硅谷公司工作过，你知道那里有多少中国人。

阿斯麦的首席执行官认为芯片限制只会逼得中国发展自己的供应链，这是有原因的。像埃隆·马斯克和比尔·盖茨这样的聪明人高度评价中国是有原因的。

你看，中国是一个重视智力的地方，聪明人太多了。即使是在街上下棋的农村老人，他们的智商也让典型的美国政客感到羞愧。

虽然我不是半导体专家，但我知道中国人很聪明，他们经历过更严峻的挑战。