Quora：如果2025年中美真的开战，谁会赢

If China does go to war with the United States in 2025, what will happen and who will win, the US or China?

如果2025年中美真的开战，会发生什么？谁会赢呢，美国还是中国?

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Epsilon -11 "Nine-Tailed Fox"

Let me start off by saying I don't believe any war with China will happen, with that out of the way let's go.

So if you wanna ask which side would win in a real world scenario you cannot make a bunch of restrictions, but I'll ban the usage of nuclear weapons.

From a economic standpoint both sides will lose, here's why

首先我要说，我不相信中国会跟任何国家开战。

所以如果你想问现实世界中哪一方会赢，你就不能规定一堆限制条件，但我会禁止使用核武器。

从经济角度来看，双方都会是输家，原因如下

But I believe China would lose more, due to the fact that the US navy can blockade the Chinese east coast at a relatively safe distance

Yes I'm aware our allies would be heavily impacted by this blockade, but honestly in a world ending war who gives a shit about them.

From a military standpoint I believe China would lose, cause of a few bad boys like these we have

但我相信中国的输面更大，因为美国海军可以在相对安全的距离封锁中国的东海岸

是的，我知道我们的盟友会受到封锁的严重影响，但说实话，在一场世界末日之战中，谁会在乎他们呢。

从军事角度来看，我相信中国会输，因为我们有这些家伙

Look Chinese hypersonic missiles are a threat to STATIONARY airbases in Guam etc, moving targets like carrier strike groups? Not so much.

中国的高超音速导弹会对关岛等地的固定空军基地构成威胁，那会对航母战斗群这样的移动目标构成威胁吗？其实还好啦。

World Peace

If the US goes to war in China, then China will win 100 out of 100 times according to the US military intelligence.

根据美国的军事情报，如果美国对中国开战，那么中国打100次赢100次。

Tom Jefferson

Why do you think it'll be 2025?

To give Ukraine a chance to make the west totally defenseless due to giving away all their weapons and cash.

为什么你会认为是2025年？

给乌克兰一个机会让西方完全失去防御能力，因为他们耗光了所有的武器和资金。

Minx

Not that I know much about their relationship but the answer I would give us no one.

In today’s times both the US and china has equal power so it would be like a match with two of the best players.They will both have 1/2 chance of wng and losing.

But if I have to choose one it would be china wng.

For one china has a lot more people in its army than the US so that there is a advantage for china.

Secondly, the US isn’t that dumb to go to war with china and so is china.They depend on each other’s resources.And for those that don’t know the US owns China more money than any other country so that there is another reason why this war is not possible.

我对他们的关系也知之有限，但要我说，他们开战没有赢家。

在今天这个时代，美国和中国实力相当，这就好比两名最优秀的球员之间的较量。他们都有50%的机会赢，同样也有50%的机会输。

但如果一定要我选择一方，那我认为中国会胜出。

一方面，中国军队的人数比美国多得多，这对中国来说是一个优势。

其次，美国也不会蠢到真的和中国开战，中国也是如此。他们都依赖于彼此的资源。也许还有人不知道，中国是美国最大的债主国，所以这也是这场战争不可能爆发的另一个原因。

Vic Placencio

The United States would suffer greatly but most of China would be gone as we know it today. Just saying. China nor any other country be able to win a war with the United States on our shores. The United States has the largest civilian army in the world. Thanks to our 2nd amendment.

美国将遭受重大损失，而中国的大部分地区将不复存在。中国和其他任何其他国家都无法在我们的海岸上打赢跟美国的战争。美国拥有世界上最大规模的民兵军队。这多亏了宪法第二修正案。

Arpita Sarkar

It is impossible to predict what will happen if China goes to war with the United States in 2025, as the outcome would depend on several unpredictable factors such as military technology, economic power, strategic alliances, etc. Ultimately, it is impossible to accurately predict who will win a theoretical war between these two countries.

如果中国真的在2025年跟美国开战，结果是无法预测的，因为这个结果将取决于几个不可预测的因素，如军事技术、经济实力、战略联盟等。所以我们无法准确预测如果这两个国家开战，谁能获胜。

William Tang

The U.S. will not risk fighting a war it cannot win. Unless China attacks the U.S. first, which is unlikely. China is not stupid like some other Asian country.

美国不会冒险打一场自己赢不了的战争。除非中国先攻打美国，但这不太可能。中国可不像其他亚洲国家那样蠢。

Dan-Wee Loh

Ask the US to try and bring it earlier. Do NOT wait till 2025. Then we will see who win. If possible bring half the USS fleet to SCS and swe how maby will go back.

请美国早点放马过来好了。别等到2025年。这样我们不就能知道谁赢了？可以的话，把美国的一半舰队都开到南海来，看看有多少能逃回去。

Greg Hart

Given the fact that there would be trade disruption, economic collapse, and millions of deaths due to combat, disease, & famine, I can't see anyone wng. Except weapons manufacturers.

考虑到贸易中断、经济萎靡，以及战争、疾病和饥荒导致的数百万人死亡，我觉得谁都是输家。除了武器制造商外。

Pher Kimhuat

Ultimately there is no winner but US’s politically influential, powerful and wealthy military weaponry merchants will be the biggest beneficiary to laugh all the way to their banks and enjoy themselves lavishly in Las Vegas.

最后是不会有赢家的，但美国那些拥有政治影响力、拥有权势和财富的军火商将成为最大的受益者，他们会数钱数到手抽筋，在拉斯维加斯一掷千金。

Freddie Chen

You’d better dig nuclear bunker and start storing clean water and food if any nuclear gaints went to war with each other directly.

Or simply dig your graveyard instead. Much faster.

You do not need to waste time to think about who will win.

No matter who win (I doubt if there would be a winner), human being lost.

Lucky you, that will not happen and I will not waste my time to think about it.

如果这些核大国真的开战，你最好挖一个核掩体，储存干净的水和食物。

或者直接给自己挖好墓地算了。毕竟挖墓地要快得多。

你也不用浪费时间思考谁会赢。

无论谁赢（我对有没有赢家也表示怀疑），人类都会完蛋。

幸运的是，这种局面不会发生，我也不想浪费时间思考这个问题。

Nikolaos Dimitropoulos

By 2025 China’s problems would have increased significantly. Most likely there will also be a whole set of new global rules on peace and security, depending on the events in and around Ukraine and the invasion of Russia, probably even defeat of Russia by then. There is also the chance of things going way side ways over there, and it will certainly affect the entire planet not just China and its immediate regional affairs.

So basically if everything everywhere else remains unchanged, China’s position would not be any better than it is now, in fact probably worst in many levels, especially internal security. Should choose that exporting via war is a solution to (some at least of) its problems, then we might even see an aggressive move on Taiwan, but nothing more than that.

到2025年，中国的问题将显著增多。最有可能的是，我们会有一套关于和平与安全的全新的世界法则，这取决于乌克兰及其周边地区的局势，以及俄罗斯的入侵，甚至俄罗斯那时已经战败。此外，中国也有可能出现其他方面的问题，这肯定会影响到全世界，而非仅仅中国及其当前的地区事务。

所以基本上，如果其他因素都保持不变，中国的处境不会比现在更好，可能在许多层面上都会是最糟糕的，特别是在国内安全方面。如果中国大陆选择通过输出战争来解决（至少部分）问题，那么可能会对台湾地区采取武力行动，但也仅此而已。

The US will obviously be aware of such decision and all its prior necessary preparations, and till then a lot of increase to the defensive capabilities of Taiwan would have been implemented as well. Remember the Chinese may spit half a dozen ships every few months, but training and experience of needed crew is not that easy. At best until 2025 they will field a couple dozen more warships, half a dozen submarines, even one Carrier if they manage to make it operational in time.

They will be more than 8–1 overmatch in nuclear attack submarines, 1/3rd of USN’s tonnage, 1/7th USN’s fleet VLS systems, let alone the technological difference and overall capacity/capability. Add to that the US-allies in the region. Not a combination of force that can take on the USN in the open seas, in fact not even capable to break the island chain. And the USN can afford to send the bulk of its force in the Pacific, now that other threats proved nuisance at best.

美国显然会意识到这一决定，做好必要的准备，在此之前，台湾的防御能力也将大幅增加。记住，中国大陆可能只用几个月就能造出6艘军舰，但训练船员的作战经验并非易事。到2025年，他们最多能再部署几十艘战舰，6艘潜艇，甚至还可能包含一艘航母。

他们的攻击型核潜艇数量跟美国的差距将超过8比1，吨位仅为美国海军的1/3，垂直发射系统只占到美国海军的1/7，更不用说技术差距和整体作战能力了。再加上美国在该地区的盟友。没有哪只联军可以在公海上与美国海军抗衡，事实上甚至都无法突破岛链。而且美国海军有能力将大部分兵力派往太平洋，而其他威胁充其量也不过是个小麻烦而已。

Besides weapons and armed forces, even a hint of sanctions prior to war itself similar to what Russia got (let alone a naval blockade in peace or war) will be enough to effectively destroy their economy, and any gain from taking Taiwan (if they actually manage to even land on it) will be a mere side note at best. Will also be the final stamp for the end of China as a functioning country or even a nation.

除了武器和武装力量，就连战前的制裁本身，就像俄罗斯遭受的制裁那般（更不用说和平或战争时期的海上封锁了）都足以摧毁他们的经济，而从统一台湾中获得的任何好处（如果他们真的成功登陆台湾）充其量也就是一个小边注。这也会是中国的最后一个印记。

Todd Roland

The US and China need each other, so I don’t see a war happening. But, if it did happen in the next 15–20 years, the US wins decisively.

Ive seen the “China outnumber…” posts but they are irrelevant. The US and her Allies are simply more powerful on the sea and in the air. They know that invading China isn’t possible, so they won’t try it. Instead, the US will use a couple of carrrier battle groups to blockade oil imports to China, and the U.S. and Japanese air forces and Navies will systematically strip the PRC of its ships, planes, and ports. Within a month with no oil imports the PRC would surrender.

I hope this never happens as the loss of life would be large and the economic fallout for each country even larger.

美国和中国彼此需要，所以我认为战争不会爆发。但是，如果未来15至20年真的发生这种局面，美国将取得决定性的胜利。

我看过很多“中国在…的数量超过了…”的帖子，但这些都是无关痛痒的事。美国及其盟友的海军和空军实力更加强大。他们知道入侵中国是不可能的，所以他们不会尝试。相反，美国将使用几个航母战斗群来封锁中国的石油进口，美国和日本的空军和海军将系统打击中国的船只、飞机和港口。如果没有进口石油，用不了一个月中国就会妥协。

我希望这种情况永远不会发生，因为会有大量伤亡，对每个国家的经济影响也十分巨大。

Subham Minj

It is impossible to answer this question without more information. There are many factors that determine who would win a war, including the size and strength of the military forces, the resources each side has available, the level of technological advancement, and the strategies employed by each side. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape in 2025 is impossible to predict. Therefore, any answer to this question would be speculative and not based on facts.

光凭有限的信息是无法回答这个问题的。谁能赢得战争的决定因素有很多，包括军事力量的规模和实力，双方拥有的资源，技术水平，以及双方采用的作战策略。此外，2025年的地缘政治格局也无法预测。所以，对这个问题的任何回答都只能是推测，没有事实根据。

Peter Ratcliffe

Can the U.S. lose a trade war with China?

It already has.

The tariffs are an admission of defeat.

The defeat is in the inadequacy of the American manufacturing to remain competitive on a world basis.

The defeat is based in lack of loyalty to American manufactured products.

中美贸易战，美国会输吗？

美国已经输了。

征收关税就是承认失败。

失败在于美国制造业无力在世界范围内保持竞争力。

失败是因为人们对美国制造的产品缺乏忠诚度。

Americans took their business offshore for price reasons. Buying offshore products brought more stuff.

Manufacturing withered and died because Americans weren’t loyal and American manufacturing couldn’t automate and adapt to provide higher quality at lower prices.

The Chinese didn’t defeat American, America defeated itself.

Now you choose to act like you’re punishing the Chinese with tariffs that Americans will pay.

美国人因为价格原因将业务转移到海外。

因为美国人缺乏忠诚度，制造业萎缩消亡了，美国制造业无法适应，无法以更低的价格提供更高的质量。

并不是中国人打败了美国人，而是美国打败了自己。

现在你们又选择让美国人支付关税来惩罚中国人

There is no will to manufacture, there aren’t enough people to employ for new manufacturing, and the investment banking industry doesn’t support long term slow returns on brick, mortar and machinery.

The government isn’t re-investing the money gained from tariffs in rejuvenating manufacturing. The tariffs are just another tax on the American people.

The Chinese have won this war unless you take the battle home and do something to make America great at manufacturing things again.

现在没有生产制造的意愿，新的制造业没有足够的劳动力可以雇佣，投资银行业不支持砖块、砂浆和机械的长期、缓慢的回报。

政府并没有把从关税中收到的钱投资于振兴制造业。关税就成了面向美国人民征收的另一种税收。

中国打赢了这场战争，做点什么吧，让美国制造业再次崛起