Which country is going to rule the world in the coming 20 years: India, China, the USA or any European countries?

未来20年，哪个国家能主宰世界？印度、中国、美国还是欧洲？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

on Diplomacy & Warfare

None of those, politically. Economically and culturally, I doubt much will change with the current US rule. Religiously, the Vatican, a European country, will still have more influence that any other country. Socially, such a state is up for grabs. English-speaking countries have more social influence today but no nation ”rules the world.” Militarily, no nation “rules the world” or even wants to except Russia. No reason for that to change in the next twenty years.

就政治上而言，这些国家都不是。在经济和文化方面，我猜美国目前的地位不会轻易动摇。在宗教方面，梵蒂冈作为一个欧洲国家，拥有比其他国家都更大的影响力。在社会方面，大家都有机会。现在英语国家的社会影响力更大，但没有一个国家能“统治世界”。在军事方面，没有任何国家能够“统治世界”，甚至除了俄罗斯，没人想这么做。这一点在未来20年里都没有理由改变。

Pradeep

I don’t think any country will or can rule any other country in this multipolar world, yes there is changing in world order and emerging some economic power can infulance one or another country decision.

在这个多极化的世界里，我不认为哪个国家将会或能够统治其他国家，是的，世界秩序正在发生变化，一些新兴的经济力量可以影响一个或另一个国家的决定。

1. China: will rise to the top of the list of the top 10 richest countries in the world as the first country. China's economy is expected to grow to be the world's first and possibly the strongest. with a GDP of 24.62 trillion dollars and a per capita income of 17,759 dollars

China's per capita income will be roughly equivalent to that of the United States. There is room for substantial expansion. However, it will no longer be the world's most populous nation, which may be a plus or a disadvantage depending on your perspective.

1. 中国：将成为全球最富有的10个国家中的佼佼者。中国经济有望实现世界第一，可能也会是发展势头最强劲的。国内生产总值能达到24.62万亿美元，人均收入达到17759美元。

中国的人均收入会跟美国不相上下。还有大幅增长的空间。届时中国将不再是世界上人口最多的国家，这可能是一个优势，也可能是一个劣势，这取决于你看问题的角度。

2. United States:- will have the world's second-richest economy. with a gross domestic product of 22.27 trillion dollars and a per capita income of 55,134 dollars. Due to its already rich substructure, the United States' per capita income growth rate is lower than that of other improved economies. The most extravagant country on earth, the US should battle to be the 'second-best'.

2. 美国：将成为世界第二富裕经济体。国内生产总值为22.27万亿美元，人均收入为55134美元。由于其丰富成熟的经济基础，美国的人均收入增长率低于其他发达经济体。作为世界上最浪费的国家，美国恐怕得花费一番力气才能保住“第二名”的位置。

3. India:- India is researched to be the world's third-greatest economy, with 8.17 trillion US dollars in Gross domestic product and an expected per capita pay of 5,060 US dollars. By accelerating its expansion, India's working population will experience a boom. The pay development rate is sat tight for to outperform China after 2030 because of the One-kid strategy of China, and the economy of India is assessed to foster by a normal of 5.1 percent yearly somewhere in the range of 2040 and 2050. By 2050, India will have the world's largest economy and surpass China as the most populous nation, with an estimated 1.6 billion people.

3. 印度：据研究，印度是世界第三大经济体，国内生产总值为8.17万亿美元，人均收入预计为5060美元。通过加速扩张，印度的劳动力将达到峰值。由于中国的独生子女战略，印度的工资增长速度在2030年后将超过中国，印度的经济预计在2040年至2050年之间以每年5.1%的正常速度增长。到2050年，印度将成为世界上最大的经济体，并超过中国成为人口最多的国家，估计将达到16亿。

4. Japan:- The size of Japan's economy will be 6.43 trillion US dollars in relation to GDP; The estimated income per person is 63,244 US dollars. Japan faces difficulties as a result of the structure of its aging population and a significant drop in the number of people who are working-age by about 40%.

It is also anticipated that the shrinking working population will support the expansion of the aging population. It's possible that the Japanese people will be offered incentives to have more children: Even though Japan's fertility rate is among the lowest on the list of world economies, it could be a way to bring in more foreign workers.

4. 日本：日本的经济规模将达到国内生产总值6.43万亿美元；预计人均收入为63244美元。由于人口老龄化和劳动年龄人口数量大幅下降40%，日本面临着困难。

此外，劳动人口的减少将导致老龄化人口的增多。日本人可能可以享受到多生孩子的激励措施：尽管日本的生育率在全球经济体中垫底，但可能会吸引更多外国工作者。

5. Germany:- will rank fifth among the Top 10 Richest Countries in the World. With an estimated gross domestic product of 3.71 trillion dollars and a per capita income of 52,683 dollars, Germany will be the most prosperous economy in Europe in 2050. Germany, like the United Kingdom, is an admirable nation with a population roughly comparable to that of the United Kingdom.

5. 德国：将在世界十大最富裕国家中排名第五。德国的国内生产总值为3.71万亿美元，人均国民收入为5.2683万美元，到2050年将成为欧洲最繁荣的经济体。德国和英国一样，是一个人口与英国大致相当的优秀国家。

6. United Kingdom:- will be the wealthiest nation in 2050. The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom is estimated to be 3.58 trillion US dollars in 2050, with a per capita income of 49,412 US dollars. The current disparity in economic wealth between Germany and Britain will significantly narrow. UK's working population is expected to grow annually. Although the long-term effects of Brext are more difficult to predict, the United Kingdom's economic league table is expected to fall only one position, remaining in that position.

6. 英国：2050年将成为最富裕国家。据估计，2050年英国的国内生产总值将达到3.58万亿美元，人均收入为49412美元。目前德国和英国之间的经济财富差距将显著缩小。英国的工作人口预计每年都在增长。尽管脱欧的长期影响难以预测，但英国的经济排名预计只会下降一位，仍将保住目前的位置。

7. Brazil :- Given its history of inflation rates exceeding 500 percent, Brazil is a surprising entry into the top 10 richest countries in the world. With an estimated GDP of 2.96 trillion dollars and a per capita income of 13,547 dollars, Thirty years from now, Brazil intends to have the seventh-strongest economy in the world. In addition, Brazil's population is anticipated to surpass 200 million, resulting in a massive economy. But not everything will be perfect: It is anticipated that the nation will drop from 52nd to 61st in terms of per capita income.

7. 巴西：虽然巴西的通货膨胀率曾超过500%，巴西还是出人意料地进入了世界十大最富裕国家之列。据估计，巴西的国内生产总值为2.96万亿美元，人均收入为13547美元。30年后，巴西将成为世界第七大经济体。此外，巴西人口预计将超过2亿，从而带来庞大的经济规模。但也有一点不尽如人意：人均收入预计将从第52位下降到第61位。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

No country is going to rule the world. No country ever has.

But the USA will probably be the preeminent power for the foreseeable future.

Russia has proven itself to be a minor economic power that has over invested in military assets, but is so corrupt that this investment was not effective.

China is facing headwinds that imply that it’s rapid economic assent has probably plateaued:

It’s demographic collapse will be the most dramatic in modern history.

没有哪个国家可以统治世界。从来没有一个国家做到过。

但在可预见的未来，美国可能仍将是超级大国。

俄罗斯已经证明了自己是一个对军事资产过度投资的经济小国，但由于腐败问题，军事投资收效甚微。

中国正面临着一些不利因素，这意味着其快速的经济增长可能已经进入了平稳期：

中国人口的骤降将会是现代历史上最引人注目的事件。

Supply chains are fleeing and will never return.

The collapse of the housing bubble is much worse than the 2009 real estate bubble in America because property development was 25% of China’s economy and had become totally speculative: property was the primary investment vehicle for Chinese.

America, on the other hand, is resurgent:

供应链正在逃离中国，而且永远不会回来。

房地产泡沫比2009年美国的房地产泡沫严重得多，房地产开发占到中国经济的25%，并且已经完全变成了投机行为：房地产是中国人的主要投资工具。

而另一方面，美国正在复苏：

The end of Russian fossil fuels to Europe has made America a major source of LNG for Europe.

America has adapted an industrial policy and therefore integrated circuits, rare earths, lithium production, green energy and other growth industries are heavily investing in American production.

Europe will probably decline vis a vis America because it’s energy costs have risen and it’s defense needs will rise even more dramatically.

俄罗斯停止向欧洲供应化石燃料，使美国成为欧洲液化天然气的主要来源。

美国调整了产业政策，所以集成电路、稀土、锂生产、绿色能源和其他增长型产业开始在美国大量投资生产。

与美国相比，因为能源成本的上升和国防需求的急剧加大，欧洲可能会走向衰落。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

Well a lot of people anticipate that we will live in a multipolar world that is not dominated by just one country.

That said, the US and China look likely to be very powerful for the foreseeable future.

India is well on the way to becoming a major power too.

很多人认为我们将生活在一个多极的世界，而非由单个国家主导。

话虽如此，但在可预见的未来，美国和中国可能会非常强大。

印度也正朝着大国的方向崛起。

No one European country can hope to be a major power by itself these days. However, if the EU continues on its current path towards integration and unification, it certainly can be a contender too. It already has a unified foreign policy and is working on creating a European military. This will take a long time though.

Other possible contenders in the more distant future could be ASEAN and perhaps equivalent organizations in Latin America and Africa.

如今，没有哪个欧洲国家可能独力发展成大国。但如果欧盟沿着目前的道路继续融合和统一，它当然具备竞争的实力。欧盟拥有统一的外交政策，正在努力打造一支欧洲军队。不过这需要一段很长的时间。

在更遥远的将来，其他可能的竞争者可能还有东盟国家以及拉丁美洲和非洲等。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

Ideally, no single country will rule the world and international law will be respected, thus allowing a happy, prosperous world of global trade and a growing sense of global community to flourish.

一个国家不可能独揽天下，各国会尊重国际法，实现互惠繁荣的全球贸易，全球共同体意识也得到不断增强。

Mr.wonder

To rule the world is not a goal that China wants to achieve. What China wants is all countries in the world co-exst peacefully and cooperate to have a win-win relations.

But in terms of the coming 20 years, China has the advantage to enjoy the fastest development. As the government has won big support from its people. It can make full use of all resources.

统领世界并非中国的目标。中国希望世界各国和平共处、合作共赢。

但在未来20年，中国拥有有利条件、可以实现最快的发展速度。政府赢得了很多人的支持，可以充分利用所有资源。

China is also doing all it can to deal with its domestic problems, such as housing, education, the medical system, finance as well as environment. Much progress has been made in many sectors. It lays a solid foundation for the society to be stable and for the country to achieve further development.

While India, the USA or other European countries have pretty much work to do to get a huge social development. Can their policies continue with the leaders of governments changing? Can they have a wide-range industrial system? Can they deal with their domestic problems that have last so long?

中国也在尽其所能地解决国内问题，如住房、教育、医疗体系、金融和环境，在许多领域都取得了长足的进展，为社会稳定和国家进一步发展奠定了坚实的基础。

而印度、美国或其他欧洲国家若要实现显著的社会发展，还需要付出很多努力。领导人一旦更迭，原有政策还能继续下去吗？他们能打造完善的工业体系吗？他们能处理好久悬未决的国内问题吗？

Ashay Ilame

The rich countries will dictate how things happen that’s for sure as we can see how vaccine distribution is happening around the world. So my guess it’ll be collation of USA and it’s allies.

毫无疑问，富裕国家有能力影响世界局势，看看世界各国的疫苗分发情况就知道了。所以我认为美国和她的盟国会领先。

Atika Nyamoti

The future doesn’t look too good for individual countries. I see alliances of 2 or more nations. America is already a Superpower, China is a serious contender, Russia is a military superpower but her economy is in jeopardy because of dependency of natural resources. Brazil, South Africa and India are not close enough. This gives us two option

单个国家前景不妙。我认为2个或2个以上国家的联盟更有优势。美国已经是超级大国了，中国是强有力的竞争者，俄罗斯是军事超级大国，但由于对自然资源的依赖，俄罗斯经济处于危险之中。巴西、南非和印度差距较大。这给了我们两个选择：

USA and Company or China and Company

美国及其友国或者中国及其友国

Many nations save for Western Europe and Israel are tired of American way of bullying poor nations. in this context, China will have more allies and influence than the USA and more richer than the USA. We will see power shifting hands from the west to the East with China and Russia so strong than NATO and if one alliance provokes the other, there will be nuclear war and the world will almost come to an end.

除了西欧和以色列，很多国家早已看不惯美国欺负小国弱国的行径。在这种情况下，中国将有比美国更多的盟友和影响力，比美国更富有。我们会看到权力从西方转移到东方，中国和俄罗斯比北约更为强大，如果一个联盟惹怒另一个联盟，可能会导致核战争，世界将走向毁灭。

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