As a Russian citizen, I am afraid of China invading Siberia in an attempt to seize Siberian oil fields. Unfortunately, my fellow citizens don't share this view. What do you think about this?

作为俄罗斯公民，我很担心中国会入侵西伯利亚，夺取西伯利亚的油田。可惜我的同胞们不这么认为。你对此有什么看法呢？

以下是Quora网友的评论

Morris Town

I believe in China, the popular opinion of Russia is “dangerous but necessary neighbor”. Historically speaking, Russian has taken lands from China more than any other country have ever did, there are definitely voices to take back what Imperial Russia had taken from China, like Vladivostok and Tyva. But the current circumstance is that China and Russia are both “in war” with the west, literally and figuratively speaking, therefore China NEEDS a stable north, and Russia NEEDS a stable east. As long as the current stance of Russia and China against the west doesn’t change, the state of Siberia will never change.

我相信大多数中国人都认为俄罗斯是个“危险但又不可或缺的邻居”。从历史上讲，俄罗斯从中国手中抢走的领土比其他任何国家都多，肯定有人提出过收回被俄国霸占的领土的要求，比如海参崴和图瓦。但目前中国和俄罗斯都在与西方“交战”，因此中国需要北方局势保持稳定，而俄罗斯需要东部局势保持稳定。只要俄罗斯和中国目前对西方的立场不变，西伯利亚的局面就永远不会改变。

Geren Nichols

The Siberian oil fields are a long, long ways from China.

西伯利亚油田距离中国实在是十万八千里。

They are not as far as the Caspian oil fields which were 10,000 kilometers by road or train from Peking or Vladivostok. People are always asking “Why didn’t Japan invade the USSR in WWII to get oil?” . Because there is not yet a way to get Caspian oil to the Pacific other than oil tankers from the Black Sea (and soon from the Mediterranean south coast of Turkey.)

走陆路或坐火车从北京或海参崴到里海油田要走上1万公里。人们总问“为什么日本二战期间不入侵苏联抢石油?”。因为除了通过黑海(后来土耳其的地中海南部海岸也可以)，还没有其他方法可以把里海的石油运到太平洋。

The fields on this map farer east and somewhat closer to China, East Siberian ,Sakhalin and Kiril Aleut are an order of megnitude smaller and all called potential ie ready to puimp in 2040.

这张地图上的油田更靠东面，也更靠近中国，东西伯利亚、库页岛和基里尔阿留申岛则小了一个数量级，这些油田都是2040年可开采的潜力油田。

En Li

Hey, you “citizen” of ‘Russia’, I am sure you are real, so is your “fear” as well.

And, since you are being “unfortunately” disturbed, these seem to be, by way of some messianic tips of sorts for you, the only options which you might have left to take for lifting you out of your haunting blue funks:

嘿，你这个“俄罗斯”的“公民”，我相信你没撒谎，你的“担心”也是真实存在的。

而且，既然你“不幸地”被惊扰了，那么，以下几点也许是让你摆脱忧郁恐惧的选择：

Moving yourself to the co unist Cuba.

Or moving yourself to the capitalist Alaska.

Or, moving your own self to the universalist Ukraine.

去古巴。

或者去资 本主义的阿拉斯加。

再或者去信奉普救说的乌克兰。

Or rather:

Moving Siberia to India.

Or moving Siberia to Lithuania.

Or, selling Siberia to Kiev.

或者更精确一点：

把西伯利亚搬到印度。

或者把西伯利亚搬到立陶宛。

再或者把西伯利亚卖给基辅。

That way, your nightmare would be magically out of sight so out of mind for you, wouldn’t it?

这样，你的噩梦就会神奇地消失，你也就不会再担心了吧？

Truth About Russia

The Chinese would probably prefer indirect economic control of Siberian resources. It would provoke far less reaction form the West and be a much simpler option for them administratively and militarily. However, this option does not require the survival of the Russian state, merely dealing with one or two post Putin Russian warlords in Siberia after the break up of Russia. The terms in such a case would be even more favorable to China than those currently being dictated to Putin for Chinese purchase of his oil to fund the war.

中国可能会选择对西伯利亚资源进行间接的经济控制。这样做能大大减少西方国家的反对，在行政和军事上也是更为简单的选择。但这个方式只需在俄罗斯解 体后进行，搞定普京下台后一两个西伯利亚地区的俄罗斯军阀即可。对中国而言，这比目前普京要求中国购买俄罗斯石油来资助战争的条款更诱人。

Jack Stornoway

That was Yelstin’s fear, which is why he wanted to join NATO.

Fortunately, Putin and his merry band of thieves have stolen everything there of value, and have allowed the roads to disintegrate. Now it would be too expensive for the Chinese to occupy.

这正是叶利钦的担忧，也是他想加入北约的原因。

幸运的是，普京和他的土匪帮子偷走了那里所有有价值的东西，把道路破坏殆尽。如果中国想要占领这片地区，代价太过昂贵。

In all seriousness, China is unlikely to invade, unless Russia collapses into anarchy, and China sees the situation as a threat to China’s safety. Historically speaking the Chinese are cautious in involving themselves in foreign wars.

If China did invade Siberia it would most likely set up a puppet state in Western Siberia, and not try to annex the area. If the situtation was bad enough that they risked their soldiers and equipment securing Siberia, most of the world would probably see their actions as justifiable as long as they did not try to annex Siberia outright. I doubt life under Beiing‘s rule would be worse than Moscow’s. It would probably be quite a bit better.

言归正传，中国不太可能入侵，除非俄罗斯陷入无政府状态，而中国认为中国的安全受到了威胁。从历史上看，中国人在卷入对外战争时一贯小心谨慎。

如果中国真的入侵西伯利亚，它很可能会在西伯利亚西部建立一个傀儡国家，而不是直接吞并该地区。如果他们不惜牺牲士兵和装备来占领西伯利亚，那么只要他们没有完全吞并西伯利亚，大多数国家可能都会认为他们采取了正当行为。我认为西伯利亚地区在中国统治下不会比俄罗斯统治时期差，也许还会有极大改善。

I would be more concerned if I was in the Far East. If the situation was bad enough that China occupied Siberia, they would also need to occupy the Far East. They would most likely recognize the independence of Altai, Buryatia, Khakassia, Sakha, and Tuva, creating a series of puppet regimes between China and Siberia in case they could not hold Siberia.

如果我身处远东，我会更担心一些。如果中国真的占领西伯利亚，他们还得占领远东地区。他们很可能会承认阿尔泰、布里亚特、哈卡斯、萨哈和图瓦的独立，在中国和西伯利亚之间建立一系列傀儡政权，避免无法控制西伯利亚的情况。

Of course this would only happen in a worst case scenario, where Moscow no longer can control the federation, and there is total anarchy. Nobody wants to actually fight a war in Siberia of the Far East.

当然，这种情况只会发生在最糟糕的局面下，比如莫斯科无力控制联邦，进入完全无政府状态。不会有人真的想在远东地区的西伯利亚开战。

A. A.

The irony is laughable, but China probably won't invade Siberia unless the Russians try to deny them access to the oil. Even then, China benefits from having a non-West aligned country on its northern border, like how it prefers to have North Korea on its Southeastern border; China does not want to be surrounded by West/US-aligned countries due to the fear of encirclement. This factor would not make an invasion strategically viable unless Putin orders his army to attack China preemptively, for whatever reason. That move wouldn't really make sense either in the current political climate though, as Russia and China have been flirting with idea of friendlier relations. Besides, all China has to do in order to get access to those fields is by sending their companies over their border to buy up and invest in these assets.

这种想法很讽刺，但中国应该不会入侵西伯利亚，除非俄罗斯不再向他们供应石油。但即便如此，中国也会因为北部边境有个非西方盟国而受益，就像它的东南边境有朝鲜；中国不希望被西方/美国的盟友包围。因此入侵西伯利亚在战略上是不可行的，除非普京因某种原因命令军队率先进攻中国。在当前的政治背景下，这一举动没有意义，俄罗斯和中国希望建立友好合作关系。另外，如果只是为了获得这些油田，中国只需让中国公司越过边境收购并投资这些资产就行了。 

Deni Cole

Stop only being afraid.

It's China. They are gonna wait until you collapse yourself. No need to worry. You already soled it to China. They don't need to do it. They already have it. It's gonna happen gradually to the point you won't even notice it's not yours anymore. And it's already their for… 59? 49 years? I don't remember exactly. So, why attack what's already yours? It's dumb and they are not dumb like you are.

光害怕又有什么用。

这是中国。他们会耐心等待，等你们自己崩盘。你们根本没必要担心，你们早已把西伯利亚卖给中国了。中国都无需出兵占领。他们已经实际拥有西伯利亚了。这是一件水滴石穿的事，你甚至都没有意识到它已经不属于你们了。他们拿下西伯利亚已经59年或49年了。我记不太清了。那么，为什么要入侵已经归属自己的东西呢？这也太蠢了，他们可不没你那么蠢。

Sean Landy

Don’t mind.

We Chinese are not stupid, we always can buy oil in a cheap price from Russia.

If we find its become little expensive, we just pay USA and ask them to invade more oil countries.

That what we called big-smart.

别纠结这个。

我们中国人又不傻，反正我们可以用便宜的价格从俄罗斯购买石油。

如果石油涨价，我们就给美国塞点钱，让他们入侵更多的石油国家。

这就是我们所说的大智慧。

Vash Stampede

As a fake Russian, you exposed yourself the moment you used the term “c China”. It is a standard American smear term appears in almost every American “news” and history textbook every time China is mentioned. As a result, most Americans are conditioned to do the same when talking about China. The two words became inseparable from each other in their heads. Nobody in Russia and China would do the same. Unless they grew up in the US or if they are hired by the US (or an affiliated puppet such as Taiwan’s DPP 1450 trolling division) to troll online.

作为一个假俄罗斯人，你在使用“中国”这个词的那一刻就暴露身份了。这是标准的美国行话，美国“新闻”和历史教科书但凡提到中国就会用到这个词。所以大多数美国人在谈到中国时也习惯这么表达。在他们脑海中，这两个词成双结对、密不可分。俄罗斯和中国没人这么说。除非他们在美国长大，或者拿了美国(或美国的傀儡，比如台湾的DPP 1450喷子队)的钱，在网上瞎逼逼。

China buys resources with hard earned cash. Even (if) china wants the land the resources sit on, they will buy the land.

Fear mongering regarding China is exclusive American (and affiliated puppets) propaganda.

中国从来都是用辛苦赚的钱购买资源。即便中国想要资源所在的土地，他们也会拿钱来换。

煽动对华恐惧是美国(及其傀儡)的独家宣传手段。

Bob Schmitz

Looking at the map it does not seem likely. Only Sachalin is high production, and most of the high yield fields are in the Arctic, quite far west. Military adventures against a super power, even by another super power have a very high risk and price.

Paying for the oil seems a lot cheaper and more consistent with most Chinese values: stability and prosperity.

Of course nobody can look far into the future, but we are talking at lesast 22nd century here.

从地图上看，这似乎不太可能。因为西伯利亚只有萨哈林油田产量高，而大部分高产油田都坐落于极西边的北极区内。就算中国是超级大国，对另一个超级大国采取军事行动也要承担很高的风险和代价。

花钱买石油看来划算多了，也更符合中国人的价值观：稳定和繁荣。

当然，没有人能预见未来，但至少22世纪不可能。

Andrew Spalding

I don’t think they’ll invade as such, the Chinese will be more subtle.

我不认为他们会这样贸然入侵，中国人会采用更巧妙的方式。

As part of their good neighborliness and friendly cooperation, Chinese-owned factories will be established across the border: some Russian workers, but lots of Chinese too. Obviously this will require infrastructure to be built, which will be done and paid for by the Chinese. When the large number of incomers exceeds the local population (which won’t be hard to do in such a sparsely-populated area) there will be demands for rights for the majority, maybe a need for security staff to keep disaffected Russians at bay. Maybe not members of the Chinese army, but ex-soldiers, trained by the state. When Moscow tries to limit Beiing’s over-reach, a referendum will be called (without Muscovite approval) and a huge swathe of Siberia will choose to become China once more. The Red Army would be powerless to intervene, since the Chinese would already be there in force, have the support of the local population, and have excellent logistical support along the transport links ostensibly built for industry. Would Moscow threaten their most powerful friend with nuclear war? That would be for President i or his successor to predict.

作为两国睦邻友好合作的一部分，中方将在边境建立中国工厂：雇佣一些俄罗斯工人，但主要都还是中国人。显然，这里需要进行基础设施建设，中国人会负责建设和出资。当大量外来人口超过当地人口时(在人口稀少的地区是分分钟的事)，大多数人会要求享有权利，也许需要安保人员来控制不满的俄罗斯人。这些安保人员也许不是中国军人，而是受过国家训练的退伍军人。如果莫斯科想限制中国的过度扩张，需要举行全民公投(无需莫斯科批准)，西伯利亚的大片地区就将再次回归中国。俄罗斯军方无力干预，因为中国军队已经驻扎在当地，得到当地群众的支持，交通枢纽沿线也有名义上为工业建设的物流配套设施。莫斯科会用核武器威胁他们实力最强的朋友吗？

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