越南只落后中国10年吗？我最近总能听到越南年轻人这么说

Is Vietnam just 10 years behind China? What do I always hear about this from Vietnamese youths, recently?

越南只落后中国10年吗？我最近总能听到越南年轻人这么说。

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Patrick Koh

If you keep hearing this, it’s a good sign.

Then the Viet youths now have more confidence, ambition and wish to upgrade their country. Accept China as being ahead and a concrete target to achieve. Delusion and denial is worse.

Now the reality check. 10 years? I don’t think so.

如果你经常听到这个说法，是好事啊。

越南的年轻人越来越自信了，有志气有决心建设自己的国家。他们把中国视为发展的榜样和目标，这比狂妄自大和眼红嘴硬要好得多。

Nominal GDP

55 times bigger.

Population - China is 15 times bigger.

In population and absolute GDP, the relative size is beyond comparison.

名义GDP

中国的名义GDP是越南的55倍

中国的人口是越南的15倍。

在人口和绝对GDP上，中国的规模也是越南无法匹敌的。

GDP per Capita: The only meaningful measure for Vietnam to catch up. However, Vietnam is 1/3 the GDP per capita of China (and that is on paper), being one of the lower ones in ASEAN.

人均GDP：这是越南赶超中国的唯一有意义的指标。但越南的人均GDP目前仅为中国的三分之一（理论上），在东盟国家中也是较低的国家之一。

China is already a super large, hugely complex and advanced economy. Vietnam is too far from the top end of China’s economic power and technological prowess. Vietnam is far back, when one looks at China’s truly developed first tier cities, economic zones, and the maturity of its industries.

中国如今已是一个超级庞大、多面和发达的经济体。跟中国强悍的经济实力和技术实力相比，越南的差距实在太大了。但凡真的看过中国发达的一线城市、经济区和成熟的工业，就知道越南落后得不是一星半点。

Erica Wong

I’ll assume that the question is asking if Vietnamese GDP per Capita in 10 years will be equivalent to the present day GDP per capita in China using current US$ exchange rates.

假设这个问题是想问：10年后越南的人均GDP能否赶上中国目前的人均GDP，统一用现在的美元汇率来计算。

2017 Vietnamese GDP per capita US$ - $2,342

2017 Chinese GDP per capita US$ - $8,827

So a bit of math shows that Vietnamese GDP per capita would need to grow at 14.12% per year for this to occur.

2017年越南人均GDP为2342美元

2017年中国人均GDP为8827美元

因此，只要稍微算一下就可以看出，要实现目标，越南的人均GDP需要以每年14.12%的速度增长。

If we look at GDP growth per capita for the past several years:

我们再来看看过去7年的人均GDP增速

it’s hovering around 6%, so it seems unlikely that Vietnamese GDP per capita would approach that of China within 10 years. I also ran the same analysis using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP and it would require GDP (PPP) growth of 9.24%, which appears a little more achievable.

If Vietnamese GDP per capita growth ran at 6% per year it would take approxmately 22.8 years for Vietnam to catch up with present day China or just over 15 years on a PPP basis.

越南的人均GDP增速一直徘徊在6%左右，所以似乎不太可能在10年内赶上中国。我还用购买力平价GDP进行了同样的分析，需要增长9.24%，这似乎更容易实现一些。

如果越南的人均GDP以每年6%的速度增长，那么越南需要大约22.8年的时间才能赶上现在的中国，如果以购买力平价计算的话，也需要15年多一点。

While China and Vietnam are not always on the best of terms I hope that China’s growth will also help Vietnam. As China attempts to move to higher value-added manufacturing I believe Vietnam will stand to gain. Also, as China becomes ever more wealthy, it will represent a huge market for Vietnamese products and services. As a supporter of Vietnam I’m also hopeful that China and Vietnam can develop better relations and work more cooperatively.

虽然中国和越南的关系总是时好时坏，但我希望中国的发展也能带动越南。中国正努力升级到附加值更高的制造业，我相信越南将会从中受益。另外，中国越来越富有，会成为越南产品和服务的庞大消费市场。我支持越南，也希望中国和越南的关系能够越来越亲密、合作得越来越紧密。

Arch Stanton

No Vietnam is not even close to “10 years”.

China is a fully industrialized nation. I mean industrialized like Western Europe and industrialized like the Soviet Union and Russia now. Industrialized like Canada and the United States. Industrialized like Japan and South Korea.

不，越南比中国落后可不止“10年”。

中国是一个实现了完全工业化的国家。我的意思是中国实现了像西欧国家，像曾经的苏联和现在的俄罗斯，也像加拿大和美国，以及日本和韩国那样的工业化。

The industrialization of China means China can build anything from scratch. China builds and sells to overseas companies giant super freight tanker ships and super tankers and giant container ships. China can mass produce trains, buses, trucks, automobiles, whatever consumer goods, etc. Vietnam cannot do any of this.

中国的工业化意味着中国可以从零建造一切。中国向海外企业生产和销售巨型货运油轮、超大型油轮和巨型集装箱船。中国可以批量生产火车、公共汽车、卡车、汽车等一切消费品。这些都是越南做不到的。

Vietnam has steel mills and chemical plants and other “industrial infrastructure” but in no way on any scale near that of China or South Korea or Japan or even Taiwan.

Vietnam can NEVER have in place the vast industrial infrastructure already had in place in the 1980s when China “took off” economically. THAT is what is going to stop Vietnam from ever matching the “China economic miracle” LET ALONE IN JUST TEN YEARS.

越南有钢铁厂、化工厂和其他“工业基础设施”，但在规模上根本无法与中国、韩国、日本甚至台湾地区相提并论。

越南永远也不可能拥有20世纪80年代中国经济“起飞”时就已经具备的庞大的工业基础设施。这就是越南无法复刻“中国经济奇迹”的原因，更不用说在短短十年时间内了。

Now why the Vietnam youth strongly believe in the “will catch up in ten years” is the exact same reason that india youth believe that “india will be a superpower in 2020”: Vietnam and indian youth HAVE BEEN TOLD OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS THAT “vietnam will be china by the 2020s” AND “india will surpass the United States by 2020!”

现在来谈谈越南年轻人为什么坚信越南“能在十年内赶上中国”，这就跟印度年轻人相信“印度在2020年成为超级大国”的原因完全相同：越南和印度年轻人被他们的政府告知“越南会在2020年赶超中国”，“印度会在2020年赶超美国！”

BOTH the Vietnam and indian government have in their interests to keep telling their young people that the future of their country is going be golden BECAUSE VIETNAM AND iNDIA WANT TO KEEP THEIR YOUNG PEOPLE DISTRACTED FROM THE PRESENT WHERE THERE IS HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT BY YOUNG PEOPLE. By kee their young peoples attention “on the golden future” the Vietnamese and indian governments can thus get their young people to forget their miserable present lives.

越南和印度政府都有自己的利益考量，他们不断告诉年轻人，他们国家的未来是金灿灿的。因为现在年轻人的失业率居高不下，越南和印度想要转移年轻人的注意力，让他们的年轻人忘记生活的苦难。

“mighty india” suffers from the same issue that Vietnam suffers from but with a one BILLION 380 MILLION people problem: “mighty india” does NOT have a large industrial infrastructure and thus has no path to lift one BILLION 200 MILLION indians out their largely poor rural lives: an “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” that is NEEDED to transform indian society.

“强大的印度”与越南面临着同样的问题，还面临着13.8亿人口的问题：“强大的印度”没有大型工业基础设施，因此无法让12亿印度人摆脱贫穷的农村生活：印度社会需要一场“工业革命”才能变革。

What people who have no concept of economics don’t understand is that China is RIGHT NOW going through its “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” and that is why China has gone from a nation where 80% of the Chinese people where farmers to today where 60+% of Chinese live in cities where they work in factories or in other industrial jobs in the cities. THIS IS WHY CHINA IS HEADED TO BECOMING A “wealthy modern advanced nation” like Europe and North America and Japan and South Korea.

不懂经济学概念的人不会明白，中国现在就在经历“工业革命”，这就是中国得以从一个80%人口都是农民的国家发展到今天60%以上的中国人口生活在城市，进入城市的工厂或其他行业工作的根本原因。这就是中国得以逐步发展成像欧洲、北美、日本和韩国一样的“富裕的现代发达国家”的原因。

Without that “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” for their societies, both Vietnam and india can only hope to become “middle income” nations like Brazil and Thailand and Iran.

如果没有“工业革命”，越南和印度都只能成为像巴西、泰国和伊朗这样的“中等收入”国家。

Jiangjunling

The guangx zhuang autonomous region on the china-vietnam border is one of China's economically backward regions,

Guangx covers an area of 230,000 square kilometers, has a population of 49 million and a GDP of 320 billion us dollars (2018).

Vietnam has a land area of 330,000 square kilometers, a population of 92 million, and a GDP of us $250 billion (2018).

广西壮族自治区位于中越边境，是中国经济落后地区之一，

广西总面积23万平方公里，人口4900万，国内生产总值3200亿美元(2018年)。

越南总面积33万平方公里，人口9200万，国内生产总值2500亿美元(2018年)。

Guangx's per capita GDP is $6,500;

Vietnam's per capita GDP is $2,600;

Ten years from now, Vietnam's GDP per capita is comparable to guangx's GDP per capita today, which is a remarkable achievement.

That would take 10 years of 9% growth a year.

广西的人均GDP为6500美元;

越南的人均GDP为2600美元;

十年后，越南的人均GDP赶上今天广西的人均GDP，将是一个了不起的成就。

这需要在10年间保持9%的年增长率。

Minh Long

As a Vietnamese person, let me tell you the truth from a Vietnamese perspective.

Vietnam is inferior to China in nearly all areas. Don't look at the limited data of GDP and GDP per capita; look broadly at all aspects.

Education: Vietnam does not have any University of the top 1000 in the world, while China has 2 universities in the top 50 in the world. Beiing and Tsinghua University. The distance is too big.

作为一个越南人，让我站在越南人的角度说说真相。

越南在几乎所有领域都不如中国。不要只看GDP和人均GDP这种有限的数据，应该综合考虑所有的方面。

教育：越南没有一所大学能够跻身世界前1000名，而中国有2所大学进入了世界前50名，那就是北京大学和清华大学。这个距离实在太大了。

Transportation and infrastructure: Vietnam does not have any subway or high speed train. 2 metro lines, in Hanoi, built by China, in Ho Chi Minh City built by Japan. China has built the world's largest bullet-train network and has 9 of the 20 largest seaports in the world.

The quality of Chinese roads is so good, I think maybe comparable to the United States, while roads in Vietnam are quite bad. After several years, the roads have been damaged, mainly due by corrupt officials and abating materials.

交通和基础设施：越南没有地铁或高铁。越南的两条地铁线，河内这条由中国建设，胡志明市这条由日本建设。而中国已经建成了全球最大的高铁网，全球最大的20个海港中有9个位于中国。

中国道路的建设质量非常好，我认为甚至可以媲美美国的公路，相比之下越南的道路非常糟糕。开通几年后就已损坏，主要原因在于官员腐败和偷工减料。

Industry and technology: Vietnam is bad, very, very bad. In manufacturing industries, almost all machinery components are imported, Vietnam does not produce anything at all. If Vietnam can produce, it will not compete well with products from China and Taiwan.

Military: While China is the third largest exporter of weapons in the world and sells weapons to 60 countries, Vietnam's arms manufacturing industry is virtually anonymous; many Vietnamese know nothing about Vietnam's arms manufacturing industry.

工业和技术：越南这方面很糟糕，非常非常糟糕。制造业中几乎所有的机械部件都依赖进口，越南根本无法生产任何东西。即便越南有能力生产，也无法跟中国大陆和台湾地区的产品竞争。

军事：中国是世界第三大武器出口国，向60个国家出售武器，而越南的武器制造业籍籍无名；许多越南人都对越南的武器制造业一无所知。

Vietnam's metallurgical industry is very bad; Vietnam is unable to produce safe and durable alloys for military and aviation. Don't believe it? Come to Vietnam and ask Vietnamese people who are working in the metallurgical industry if you want to know this harsh truth.

Work ethic: I see that the work ethic of Chinese workers is better; Vietnamese people have a lack of discipline, low productivity, and lack of solidarity.

越南的冶金工业也非常糟糕，无法为军事和航空生产安全耐用的合金。难以置信吗？如果你对这个残酷的事实有兴趣，大可来越南问问冶金行业的越南人。

职业道德：我认为中国工人的职业道德更好；越南人民缺乏纪律，生产效率低下，也不够团结。

Computer, smartphone, semiconductor: Vietnam has almost nothing and can produce almost nothing by itself. Without Samsung investment, I bet the Vietnamese economy would be much worse.

10 years? Too optimistic. I think depending on the field, Vietnam is more behind China by 10 to 50 years, maybe even 100 years.

电脑、智能手机、半导体：这些东西越南几乎啥都没有，也什么都生产不出来。如果没有三星的投资，我敢打赌越南的经济会比现在更糟糕。

十年？这未免过于乐观了。我认为根据在不同行业，越南落后中国10到50年，甚至说100年也不为过。