2035年的中国海军，会有多少艘战舰

Chinese Navy of 2035: How Many Warships? Which Types?

2035年的中国海军：有多少艘战舰？哪些类型？

We project the size and composition of the Chinese PLA Navy in 2035. China's naval forces have grown exponentially over the past 10 years, and is showing little signs of slowing down.

预测2035年中国人民解放军海军的规模和组成。中国海军力量在过去10年里呈指数级增长，而且几乎没有放缓的迹象。

以下是各国网友的评论：

Richard Kenneth Eng

In my opinion, China will use the PLAN for: 1) territorial defence around China's coast; 2) taking back Taiwan; 3) protecting vital trade routes; 4) protecting its infrastructure projects in other countries. It's really not that difficult to figure out.

在我看来，中国海军的目标是：

1) 中国沿海地区的领土防御；

2) 收回台湾；

3) 保护重要的贸易路线；

4) 保护其在其他国家的基础设施项目。其实并不算难理解。

Commie

Jokes aside, i believe what China wants with its navy is to be on par its economy size. We all remember what happened to Qing dynasty when military is lagging behind its enconomy significantly.

玩笑归玩笑，我相信中国想要的是与经济规模相当的海军。我们都记得在清朝时期，在军事明显落后于经济时，发生了什么。

catonpillow

'What does Сhina wants to do with its navy?' That question is easily answered taking into consideration the number of aircraft carriers they want to build. They want to have enough (basically a relative parity) to defend themselves from the U$ navy due to the U$ constant provocations as of late.

“中国想用它的海军做什么？”考虑到他们想要建造的航母数量，这个问题很容易回答。由于美国最近不断的挑衅，他们想要有足够的(基本上是相对对等的)海军来保护自己免受美国海军的攻击。

J D

This is easily one of your best videos to date, exceptionally well done! I agree on the ~90 destroyers around 2035, on the 16x and 8x split on the 055 and 055A, I believe the A will come much sooner than many assess and they’ll be closer to a 12/12 ratio. Couldn’t agree more on submarine projection, expect it to be many more.

在2035年左右建造90艘驱逐舰，055和055A的比例分别是现在的16倍和8倍多，我相信A型会比许多人估计的要快得多，它们的比例会更接近12/12。在潜艇投射问题上意见非常一致，预计会有更多。

The136th

On the Type 055. I read recently that China won't be making more Type 055, it will stop at 8, as the current Type 055 doesn't offer that much more over 052D to justify the building cost. The PLAN is waiting for new tech to mature to have a bigger batch of Type 055A.

关于055型，我最近看到中国不会再造更多的055型的报道，造了8艘后停止，因为目前的055型没有提供比052D更多的东西来证明建造成本的合理性。中国海军正在等待新技术成熟，才会建造更多的055A型。

Cam35mm

I think it's a good bet the next carrier will be conventional and will be the sister carrier, same design maybe a tweak here and there. Like you said it will be quicker, which at this point is important, and also the logistics/inventory and maintenance of these carriers just more cost effective.

Blue water navy not important right now but being able to extend power into the second chain is important.

我认为下一艘航母很有可能是常规航母，并且是姊妹航母，同样的设计，可能会进行微调。就像你说的那样，这样建造速度将会更快，这一点上重要，而且这些航母的物流/库存和维护也更具有成本效益。。蓝水海军现在不重要，但能够将力量延伸到第二岛链是重要的。

Miguel Kalampayit

There has been a ship construction proposal selection take place in Dalian. Many have been guessing it is all about the type 076 or 055A or 005 construction.

大连正在进行船舶建造方案的评选，许多人猜测这是关于076型或055A型或005型的建造。

trinh long

Great video although I would think that recent PLAN expansion is akin to German empire’s navy build up pre-WW1 or US’s leading up to 600 ship navy of Reagan. US in WW2 is just a different beast, mainly because peacetime is nowhere near wartime production capacity, they did it in less than 5 years but in the end her navy eclipsed every other nations (including her allies) combined.

我认为中国海军最近的扩张类似于一战前德意志帝国的海军建设，或者美国里根时期拥有600艘军舰的海军。二战中的美国就是一只野兽，主要是因为和平时期远没有战时的生产能力，他们用了不到5年的时间就做到了，但最终她的海军超过了其他所有国家(包括她的盟友)的总和。

Filip Ziętek

China needs more submarines like Yasen class i think, they are perfect counter to carriers.

我认为中国需要更多像亚森级这样的潜艇，它们是对抗航母的完美对手。

vl hc

Another thing people struggle with is passage of time, China's 2035 is also US' 2035, i.e. naval match-up by 2035 isn't going to be China in 2035 vs US inventory in 2020, all Ticos would be gone by then, for example.

And last thing is end point, people like to imagine some sort of ceiling defined by the US, but there's nothing preventing a country with 1.4 billion people from operating a navy 4x larger than the USN, and a navy of that scale certainly ain't going to be all hanging out in East Asia.

中国的2035年也是美国的2035年。到2035年的海军，对决不会是2035年的中国 vs 2020年的美国。

最后一点，人们喜欢想象美国定义的某种上限，但没有什么能阻止一个拥有14亿人口的国家拥有比美国海军大4倍的海军，而且这种规模的海军肯定不会全部部署在东亚。

Filip Ziętek

054B will be more capable than Type45 destroyer which also has 2 panel aesa and only 48 small vls that can't quadpack. Overall i consider Type 45 inferior to japanese Akizuki class for example.

054B将比45型驱逐舰更强大，45型驱逐舰也有2个相控阵雷达，只有48个不能四联装的小型垂直发射装置。总的来说，我认为45型不如日本的秋月级。

TreeInAField

Now I'm curious about Korea and Japan's navies. Surely they must be seeing this and are planning on expanding their own numbers in response, but by how much and with what kinds of ships?

我对韩国和日本的海军很好奇。当然，他们肯定看到了这一点，并计划扩大自己的海军作为回应，但增加多少，都是什么样的军舰?

Liam Marra

And why have such a large navy? Largest economy on earth in PPP, largest trading partner, or one of the largest trading partner of most States on earth. Massive maritime commerce, need a massive navy to ensure its continuity, and thus the continuity of all maritime commerce. Same as the US claims, simple as.

为什么要有这么庞大的海军？按购买力平价计算，中国是世界上最大的经济体，最大的贸易伙伴，或者是世界上大多数国家最大的贸易伙伴之一。大规模的海上贸易需要一支庞大的海军来确保其畅通，从而确保所有海上贸易的畅通。和美国的主张一样，很简单。

Liam Marra

Their submarine force and the. Urgent state of its modernization and expansion never seem to get much attention. Not sure if that’s because China keeps that shit tight or that people find subs not as flashy though being orders of magnitude more dangerous.

他们的潜艇部队和它的现代化和扩张的紧迫性似乎从来没有得到过多的关注。不确定这是因为中国对潜艇的控制很严格，还是人们发现潜艇没有那么华丽，尽管它的更知名。

MLN Gi

Thank you, good work as always, and may I ask where were you informed that the construction of type 004 has begun?

请问你从哪里得知004型已经开始建造？

Older chin

A good update. But I believe China will add a bigger drone submarine force and build a new class of missile attack destroyer, ships that will have 200-300 VLS cells. Probably no more Heli carriers but light aircraft carriers that will will launch mainly drones. A submersible destroyer is also possible, survivable warships will become more important. China has launched hundreds of satellites and is building high attitude surveillance drones, a submersible warship makes sense, it can depend on an integrated surveillance system and need not be surface bound.

But I think the real game changer will be in space in the form of orbiting bombers instead of ships. A few of these will take out a whole fleet in minutes. The US has set a precedence with its space force, China will likely follow. This will change the character of the naval force.

我相信中国将增加一支更大规模的无人潜艇部队，并建造新型导弹攻击驱逐舰，舰艇将有200-300个VLS单元。可能不会再有直升机航母了，但轻型航母主要发射无人机。潜水驱逐舰也有可能，生存能力强的军舰将变得更加重要。中国已经发射了数百颗卫星，正在建造高海拔无人侦察机，潜水战舰也有用，它可以依赖于综合监视系统，不需要在水面上活动。但我认为真正改变游戏规则的将是太空中的轨道轰炸机，而不是飞船。几枚就能在几分钟内摧毁整个舰队。美国在太空部队方面已经开创了先河，中国可能会效仿。这将改变海军的性质。

Ethan Mac

China already laid the keel for the upcoming 100,000 ton nuclear powered type 004 supercarrier, which will be as big as the biggest American supercarriers, and they will build the type 005 supercarrier soon, which will be the worlds biggest supercarrier today and ever built, at 110,000 tons

VIVA CHINA

中国已经为即将到来的10万吨级核动力004型超级航母铺设了龙骨，这与美国最大的超级航母一样大，他们很快建造005型超级航母，这是当今世界上最大的超级航母，吨位为11万吨。中国万岁！

Commie

Of course returning the favor by supporting Independence of California/Texas/Florida and setting up a military base in Mexco.

当然，回报将是支持加州、德克萨斯、佛罗里达独立，在墨西哥建立军事基地。

Doug InOrlando

I half expect China to build a specialized Aircraft Carrier without propulsion to be towed to strategic shoals around Taiwan and South CHina Sea islands. They will be semi-permanent and made unsinkable by support from many pilings driven into the seabed. I expect it to include runway extensions to create full length runways and become the core of well defended bases. Instead of taking years to transform an island, they will be operational in a month.

我估计中国会建造一艘没有推进力的专门航母，拖到台湾和南海岛屿周围的战略浅滩。它们将是半永久性的，并由嵌入海底的许多桩子支撑，使其永不沉没。我预计它将包括跑道扩展，以修建一条跑道，并成为防御良好的基地的核心。它们将在一个月内投入使用，而不用花费数年时间改造一座岛屿。

Ox Vendivil

Going the nuclear carriers/vessels route would just warrant unwanted feelings of threat not only from the Collective WEST but also from other global south countries especially the other great powers like Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Iran, India and Indonesia and would just be a bad PR stunt on China's part especially when it espouses self defense and non interference, the risk in a defensive war is just too great because it mandates that you keep your forces close to your territory and if nuclear vessels are sunk near you

走核动力航母/军舰路线只会让西方集体产生不必要的威胁感，也会让其他全球南方国家感觉被威胁，尤其是其他大国，如土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、巴西、伊朗、印度和印度尼西亚，这不利于中国公关宣传，尤其是当它支持自卫和不干涉时。

Christoph Mahler

One should take a look at the official line.

Has the People's Liberation Army Navy declared that supercarriers are the main stay of the Navy - versus e.g. submarines, guided missile frigates, 'massed' assault ships or underwater drones ?

If there is no such explicit declaration, it shouldn't be assumed that the PLAN will simply imitate the United States in grand strategy, procurement and operational means (supercarriers may have greater firepower and power projection, yet may be as easily sunk in one incident as dozens of dispersed assets over a longer period).

我们应该看看官方的路线。中国人民解放军海军是否宣布超级航母是海军的主力，而非潜艇、导弹护卫舰、“大规模”攻击舰或水下无人潜航器?

如果没有这样的明确声明，就不应该认为中国人民解放军会简单地在大战略、采购和作战手段上模仿美国（超级航母可能拥有更强大的火力和力量投射，但可能、容易在一次事故中沉没）。

Robbie Seng

This is necessary to serve as deterrence as well as defense against attacks from US & its allies.

为了威慑和防御来自美国及其盟友的攻击，这些是必要的。

Nameless Warrior

What if China builds 2 nuclear subs every year from now till 2035? if so, then there will be 48 nuclear subs by 2035.

如果中国从现在到2035年每年建造两艘核潜艇呢？如果是这样，那么到2035年他们将有48艘核潜艇。

Raymond Tay

Well done China PLA keep on developed more powerful Navy warship in the world. Made in China.

干得好，中国人民解放军继续建设世界上更强大的海军军舰。中国制造。

Robbie Seng

Concurrently, China should continue improving its satellite & space defence system that will provide critical support to its military defence against aggression & attacks from US & its allies

与此同时，中国应该继续改进其卫星和太空防御系统，为其抵御美国及其盟友的侵略和攻击提供关键支持

life long foe

the Question is how many capable Warships will they operate.

问题是他们有多少艘有能力的战舰。

BadVidZ ENT

I think china next carrier will still be a conventional powered, my guess is they will build 2 more fujian class before proceeding with a nuclear carrier

我认为中国的下一艘航母仍将是常规动力的，我猜他们会在建造核动力航母之前再建造2艘福建级航母

One thing everyone seems to forget is the massive cost of upkeep for all these ships, the amount of sailors needed to man/money needed to pay them and China has a limited amount of ports to base them. Bunching them up would make them easy targets by any rival especially the U.S. with long range cruise missiles. Sustainability is the word of the day.

所有人似乎都忘记了一件事，这些军舰的维护成本巨大，需要大量的水手和资金来维持，而中国的港口数量有限。将聚集在一起将使它们很容易成为竞争对手的目标，尤其是拥有远程巡航导弹的美国。可持续发展是今天的关键词。

Brian M

Sell a few Type 55s and Shandong to Russia in exchange for... Yasen M, mining rights to iron ore or coal, drilling rights... I think China has very sellable naval products.

向俄罗斯出售一些055型驱逐舰和山东舰，以换取亚森M级，铁矿石或煤炭开采权，钻井权。我认为中国的海军产品非常畅销。

sam hy

China PLA navy today currently have two aircraft carrier ready for combat and the third Fujian aircraft carrier is ready for combat in the year 2025.