Can China Catch Up With U.S. Nuclear Submarine Tech? | U.S. vs. China

在核潜艇技术方面，中国能赶上美国吗？美国 vs 中国

Decades behind, China is now in the process of modernizing its ballistic missile submarine fleet to strengthen its nuclear deterrence capabilities. Can its new Type 096 submarines and JL-3 missiles compete with the U.S. Navy’s quieter Ohio class SSBNs and larger Trident II missiles?

WSJ compares China’s and the U.S.'s fleets and explains what impact each has on the global stage today.

落后几十年后，中国现在正在对本国的弹道导弹潜艇舰队进行现代化升级，以加强其核威慑能力。中国新型096型潜艇和巨浪-3导弹能与美国海军更安静的俄亥俄级弹道导弹战略核潜艇和更大的三叉戟II导弹竞争吗?

《华尔街日报》对中国和美国进行了比较并解释了它们对当今全球舞台的影响。

以下是Youtube网友的评论：

Sub Brief

Truth is no one knows how capable the Type 096 will be until its in the water. However, China has made astonishingly rapid improvements in their combat system capability in the last 10 years. If that trend is an indication of what China is capable of in submarine construction quality, then we have a peer competitor in Asia. In submarine warfare, quality of construction and the training of the sailor is everything.

事实上，在096型下水之前，没有人知道它的能力有多强。然而，在过去10年里，中国在作战系统能力方面取得了惊人的快速改进。如果这一趋势表明了中国在潜艇建造质量方面的能力，那么我们在亚洲就有了一个对等的竞争对手。在潜艇作战中，装备质量和水兵的训练至关重要。

5133937

SSBNs are among the most closely guarded secrets in any nation’s military.  It’s difficult or impossible to get any real info on these things, making comparisons like this difficult.

在任何国家的军队中，弹道导弹战略核潜艇都是最严格保密的机密之一。很难或不可能得到关于这些东西的任何真实信息，这使得这样的比较变得困难。

ProoGenji

The more proper comparison is between the SSBN of one country and its opponent's detection ability. You don't need to be quieter than your opponent's SSBN, but just quiet enough to evade detection.

比较一国的弹道导弹战略核潜艇与对手的探测能力更为恰当。你不需要比对手的弹道导弹战略核潜艇更安静，但要足够安静以免被探测到。

Tony Fondacaro

Having a fleet of capable submarines is one thing. Having a Navy of proficient sailors who can employ all that capability is quite another.

拥有一支强大的潜艇舰队是一回事。拥有一支由熟练水手组成的海军，能够运用这些能力是另一回事。

Max Loewe

Thanks WSJ for calculating the survivability of submarines in a nuclear war.

感谢《华尔街日报》计算核战争中潜艇的生存能力。

Huy Le

The START treaty has been suspended and isn't in effect any longer. It also only covers the US and Russia so China does not need to comply. Future nuclear weapon limitation treaties will need to include all three countries, at minimum.

I believe that 4 subs in the Ohio class SSBN have been retired as ballistic missile subs - including the Ohio. They have been converted in to cruise missile launchers (SSGN).

削减战略武器条约已经中止，不再有效。这个条约也只束缚美国和俄罗斯，所以中国不需要遵守。未来的核武器限制条约至少需要包括这三个国家。

我相信俄亥俄级弹道导弹战略核潜艇中的4艘潜艇已经作为弹道导弹潜艇退役。它们已被改装为巡航导弹发射器(SSGN)。

zhli

Quietness depends on how far it can be heard, and that in turn depends on the operations.  China’s nuclear subs are mostly in the South China Sea.  Once a nuclear boomer slips through the Philippines into the Pacific, it would hard to track it.

是否安静取决于能被听到的距离，而这又取决于操作。中国的核潜艇主要在南海。一旦一枚核弹从菲律宾溜进太平洋，就很难追踪了。

FACTS DC

They can catch up with the technology but the U. S. has actually been using an active Navy since John Paul Jones. That’s a lot of years of experience.

他们可以在技术上赶上，但美国实际上自约翰·保罗·琼斯以来一直有着一支活跃的海军。那可是多年的经验啊。

Leon Campa

Yeah… look. Once countries have nukes, none of them would realistically seek to use them regardless of how quiet their subs are.

Would they want to risk a nuclear war with the enemy?

Nobody wins in a nuclear war. Even if one has stealthier nukes than the other, a single missed silo, strategic bomber, submarine or mobile missile launcher could spell doom for the attacking nation.

是的，看，一旦国家拥有核武器，无论他们的潜艇多么安静，他们都不会真正地寻求使用它们。他们愿意冒着与敌人发生核战争的风险吗？核战争中没有赢家。即使其中一方拥有比另一方更隐形的核武器，一个发射井、战略轰炸机、潜艇或移动导弹发射器的失误都可能给攻击国带来厄运。

0224 colsbleu

From the launch of China's first nuclear submarine in 1974 to now, China has only built about 24 of them, including attack nuclear submarines and ballistic missile submarines, while the U.S. Navy has built more than 250 nuclear submarines of various types from 1958 to now. From hundreds-tons to tens-of-thousands-tons... So, technically comparing the 094 class with the Ohio class is meaningless, just like comparing the driving skills of a novice driver with a 30-year-old professional driver...The result is obvious ...

What is really meaningful is whether a country's nuclear submarine can meet the strategic goals of each country...while the goal of the United States is to "govern" the world, and China's goal is to protect himself...after all, no matter how advanced US Nuclear submarines is, it can't avoid 9/11, nor prevent a lunatic like Trump become the person who "presses the nuclear bomb button"

从1974年中国第一艘核潜艇下水到现在，中国只建造了24艘左右，包括攻击型核潜艇和弹道导弹核潜艇，而美国海军从1958年到现在已经建造了250多艘各型核潜艇，排水量从几百吨到几万吨。所以，从技术上讲，比较094级和俄亥俄级是没有意义的，就像比较一个新手司机和一个30岁驾龄职业司机的驾驶技术一样，结果是很明显的

真正有意义的是一个国家的核潜艇能否满足每个国家的战略目标。而美国的目标是“治理”世界，中国的目标是保护自己……毕竟，无论美国核潜艇多么先进，都无法避免9/11恐袭，也无法阻止特朗普这样的疯子成为“按下核弹按钮”的人。

mayowa60

I don't get why the analysts are comparing how quiet both subs are against each other. What they should be worried about is if the Chinese subs are quiet enough to do what they are required to do.

我不明白为什么分析家们要比较两艘潜艇的安静程度。他们应该担心的是，中国潜艇是否足够安静，能够完成自己的使命

903IDFOLEY

A direct comparisons between SSBNs is kinda pointless, SSBN are not designed to face off against each other.  

直接比较弹道导弹战略核潜艇（SSBN）之是没有意义的，SSBN不是设计来对抗彼此的。

aa1944

unclear ballistic subs is where china is lacking behind, but china is very advanced in conventional AIP subs. and also, the US economy should enter a recession, although we dont know how serious it will be, but we already seeing banks failures, usually, defense budget will take a hit during economic hardships, meanwhile in china, they get steady funding. still, it takes a lot of time to close the gap but ballistic sub is ballistic sub

弹道潜艇是中国落后的地方，而中国常规AIP潜艇非常先进。此外，美国经济将进入衰退，尽管我们不知道会有多严重，但我们已经看到银行倒闭。通常，国防预算在经济困难时期会受到打击，而在中国，他们有稳定的资金。尽管如此，缩小差距需要很长时间，但弹道潜艇就是弹道潜艇

Djamonja

Obviously having SSBNs has an important deterrence value, but it's really not going to change much if the nuclear missiles start flying (we'll all be in bad shape). So unless you can take out every enemy SSBN plus intercept every enemy ICBM, you're still in a world barely worth living in.

显然拥有SSBN具有重要的威慑价值，但如果核导弹开始飞行，它真的不会改变太多(我们都会完蛋)。所以除非你能干掉敌人的每一艘SSBN并拦截敌人的每一枚洲际弹道导弹，否则你仍然生活在一个几乎不值得生活的世界里。

Rick Wong

Just cause the question was even posed, that basically means they can, just a matter of time

就冲这个问题被提出了，这基本上意味着他们可以，只是时间问题

Eddie Corleone

Why would you go nuclear sub when you can go straight to space hypersonic nuclear missiles orbiting the Earth ready to come down anytime? After the first nuke, we can assume that all nukes will be flying everywhere making Earth uninhabited.

当你可以直接使用空间高超音速核导弹时，为什么要选择核潜艇呢？在第一颗核弹爆炸后，我们可以假设核弹将会到处飞，地球上将无人居住。

Notorious N

No one can catch up with the Lord of War: USA

没有人能赶上战争之王：美国

Stu Bur

The PLA Navy is acquiring their next generation nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines just as the US Navy is acquiring their next generation ballistic missile submarines too.

While the US new Columbia class SSBN are doubtless impressive and superior overall in capabilities, the PLA Navy new Type 096 will be capable enough to do the job. Type 096 is rumored to be significantly quieter than the preceding Type 094 in class which are rather noisy. This might make them roughly equivalent to the Soviet Union’s 1970s era Delta I class submarines. That puts them behind the US but still potentially capable enough to get within striking distance of the US coasts.

中国海军正在采购下一代核动力弹道导弹潜艇，美国海军也在采购下一代弹道导弹潜艇一样。

虽然美国新的哥伦比亚级SSBN毫无疑问令人印象深刻，总体性能优越，但中国海军新的096型将有足够的能力完成任务。据传096型比之前噪音相当大的094型晋级要安静得多。大致相当于苏联20世纪70年代的德尔塔I级潜艇。它们落后于美国，但仍有足够的潜力进入美国海岸的打击距离。

Colin Lee

It only takes a single submarine-killer missile to sink the submarine just as it takes only a single carrier -killer missile to sink  an aircraft carrier!

只需一枚潜艇杀手导弹就能击沉潜艇，就像只需一枚航母杀手导弹就能击沉航空母舰一样！

leonard wilcox

They may catch up if they can steal the tech.

如果他们能偷到技术，可能能赶上美国。

Kobe A5 Wagyu

China SSBN  being loud is intentional.

1. It is to scare away marine animals away from the ship, so they don't dmg the ship.

2. SSBN is an outdated military tactics, in the past, most balisitic missiles cannot reach half of the world, so they have to get closer for an effective range.

But with the modern technology of ICBM.

Most ICBM now have over 10,000 KM range, capable to circle the world.

China's Dongfeng 41 (CSS-20)  for example, has an estimated range of 12,000 to 15,000 KM.

The longest-range ICBM in the world.

中国弹道导弹战略核潜艇的声音大是故意的。

1. 这是为了驱赶海洋动物，这样它们就不会伤害船体。

2. 弹道导弹战略核潜艇是一种过时的军事战术，在过去，大多数弹道导弹无法绕半个地球，所以他们必须更接近有效的射程。

但有了现代洲际弹道导弹技术，大多数洲际弹道导弹现在射程超过1万公里，能够环绕世界。例如，中国的东风41 (CSS-20)估计射程为12000至15000公里。是世界上射程最远的洲际弹道导弹。

Tr7b

I suspect the U.S. Navy has subs that can literally,using electro-magnetic fields, fly thru the water.

我怀疑美国海军的潜艇真的可以利用电磁场在水中飞行。

yemail5555

No need to worry too much, we will get there and we already have pretty reliable systems such as DF41. Just build a few more hundreds of them. Not a big deal.

不用太担心，我们会到达那个水平的，我们已经有相当可靠的系统，比如东风-41。再造几百枚就行了，没什么大不了的。

free agent

Imagine if Australia had purchased Chinese submarines .

想象一下，如果澳大利亚购买了中国潜艇。

46

While US is busy spending billions to counter china

美国正忙着花费数十亿美元对抗中国

Ben Gao

WSJ basically assures Americans(and self-congratulating): don't worry, no matter what, we can still beat China in a nuclear war. Heh, nothing is too difficult for others if American can do. Soviet used to have equally advanced subs if not more. China is late comer to the club, but logically, there is nothing to prevent them to catch up on this, it wo't be too long, if you consider how fast them have developed.

《华尔街日报》基本上是在向美国人保证(而且是自鸣得意)：别担心，无论如何，我们仍然可以在核战争中击败中国。如果美国人能做到，对别人来说没有什么是太难的。苏联曾经拥有同样先进的潜艇。中国是俱乐部的后来者，但从逻辑上讲，没有什么可以阻止他们迎头赶上，如果你考虑到他们的发展速度，时间不会太长。

Lawrence Ding

In short, yes but it will take at least 2 decades to reach parity.

简而言之，是的，但至少需要20年才能达到同等水平。

Erik567

What ever is going on more defense spending is needed.

无论发生什么，都需要更多的国防开支。

Marathon1303

Great piece. Informative and easy to understand. To answer the title of this piece...it seems the only way China catches up is by stealing designs and or reverse engineering stolen stuff. Just look at the J-20 stealth aircraft and put it side by side with the F-22...you can immediately see striking similarities. The only difference is the canard fins just behind the cockpit. The J-31 stealth fighter looks even more like the F-35. I am glad that the Chinese have not been able to copy the Ohio Class SSBN or any other US Navy submarine. I hope it stays that way.

看来中国追赶的唯一方法就是窃取设计，或者靠逆向工程窃取的东西。看看歼-20隐形飞机，把它和F-22比较一下，你马上就能发现惊人的相似之处。唯一的区别是鸭翼就在驾驶舱后面。歼-31隐形战斗机看起来更像F-35。幸好中国人没有能力复制俄亥俄级SSBN或任何其他美国海军潜艇，我希望能一直这样。

Bananas

Meanwhile in Australia we sell our Ports to China to help pay for submarines to protect us from china …

与此同时，澳大利亚把港口卖给中国，支付购买潜艇的费用，保护我们免受中国的威胁

DutchFr1908

all nato countries and partners should invest much more to defence and fast before its too late

所有北约国家和伙伴都应该加大国防投入，趁早行动