Will Vietnam replace China as the world's largest manufacturer?

越南能取代中国，成为世界工厂吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Peter Kaye

Nope, impossible, just use a bit of common sense, just the difference in size alone should answer this question, size of both, country, and population, tells us that Vietnam can never be the largest, or even come close to what China can do, India, is the only country that can come close, but even then, China has to much of a lead, and while India will continue to develop, so will China, they have a huge lead, that’s why I don’t think India will ever pass them.

不，不可能，这是动动脚趾头也知道不可能的常识，单单国土大小和人口规模的差距就足以回答这个问题了，越南永远不可能成为最大的世界工厂，也不可能缩小和中国的差距，只有印度有潜力做到，但是即便如此，也是中国遥遥领先，印度持续发展，可中国也不会停下脚步。他们有强大的领导能力，这就是我认为印度也无法赶超他们的原因。

Chingun Erdene-Ochir 

It is possible that Vietnam could become a major manufacturer in the global economy, but it is unlikely that it will replace China as the world's largest manufacturer. China has a well-developed and extensive manufacturing sector that has been a major contributor to its economic growth and global competitiveness. It is also a major supplier of manufactured goods to the rest of the world.

越南是有可能成长为全球经济的主要制造基地，但它不太可能取代中国成为全球最大的制造国。中国拥有发达成熟的制造业，是中国经济增长和全球竞争力的主要推动因素。中国也是世界其他地区制成品的主要供应国。

Vietnam has also experienced rapid economic growth in recent years and has been attracting foreign investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector. It has a relatively low cost of labor and a strategic location that makes it a convenient gateway to markets in other countries in the region. However, Vietnam's manufacturing sector is still smaller and less developed than China's, and it would take significant investment and infrastructure development for Vietnam to catch up to China's level of manufacturing output.

越南近年来也经历了快速的经济增长，并一直在吸引外国投资，特别是在制造业领域。越南的劳动力成本相对较低，地理位置优越，是通往亚洲其他国家市场的便捷门户。但越南的制造业规模和发达程度远不及中国，还需要大量投资和基础设施建设才能赶上中国制造业的生产能力。

It is also worth noting that the global manufacturing landscape is constantly evolving, and there are many other countries that are also competing to become major players in the sector. Therefore, it is difficult to predict with certainty which country will be the world's largest manufacturer in the future.

同样值得注意的是，全球制造业格局正在不断演变，很多国家也为了成为制造业大国而竞争角力。所以，很难准确预测哪个国家将成为世界上最大的制造中心。

Dearcoolz

Here is some interesting facts.

Chinese sellers dominate Amazon, because China has complete supply chains and it makes everything from toys to electronics.

我想列举一些有趣的事实。

中国商家称霸亚马逊，因为中国拥有完整的供应链，从玩具到电子产品，中国无所不能。

According to our research that we collected (see our related article Amazon Third Party Seller Breakdown by Country) over 63% of third-party sellers are from either mainland China or Hong Kong. What is this? Sellers from the United States by comparison makes up just 34.8% of all third party sellers.

根据我们收集的信息(参见相关文章：亚马逊第三方卖家国别分类)，超过63%的第三方卖家来自中国大陆或香港。这意味着什么呢？美国的卖家仅占到所有第三方卖家的34.8%。

ay Yan

Vietnam’s GDP is 1/50th of the GDP of China.

Vietnam would ranked #20 among 31 Chinese provinces, if it were a Chinese province.

The gap is just too much.

It’s like “Will Canada replace the US as the world’s No.1 military power?”

越南的GDP仅有中国的1/50。

如果把越南看作中国的一个省，只能在中国31个省份中排名第20位。

这两者的差距实在太悬殊了。

这个问题就好比“加拿大会取代美国成为世界第一军事强国吗?”

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

No

LImited Workforce

Limited Space for Manufacturing

Limited Market for Consumption

Limited Environment

不可能。

劳动力有限。

工厂土地有限。

消费市场有限。

环境限制多。

These make it tough for Vietnam to ever maufacture even 10% of what China does which is Vietnams Peak (Vietnam manages around 5.3% today).

In fact Vietnam has to start evolve to High Grade Manufacture by 2027–2030 and move fully to high grade manufacture by 2035–2037 to continue to develop and survive. Otherwise it will outprice itself completely.

这使得越南就连中国制造业产能的10%都难以完成，越南目前的产能约为中国的5.3%

事实上，2027-2030年越南必须开始向高端制造业发展，并在2035-2037年全面转向高端制造业，才能持续发展、得以生存。否则，越南制造的商品价格将迫使越南彻底出局。

Tony

Back in 1980s, I heard a Chinese ( rather he was a Hong Kongese back then) said that you should invest in Vietnam. Fast forward 40 years till now, the economy of Vietnam has increased 30 - 40 times, which means that anyone has invested in Vietnam, can do extremely well. I have a privilege of knowing a gentleman, who become a multi millionaire from his investments in Vietnam since then.

早在上世纪80年代，我就听到一个中国人(更确切地说是位中国香港人)说，你应该投资越南。快进40年，如今越南的经济增长了30 - 40倍，这意味着任何在越南投资的人都收益颇丰。我有幸认识一位男士那时起就在越南投资，现在早已成了千万富翁。

(Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

越南胡志明市

For a Japanese, Korean or Chinese, Vietnam has offered the opportunity, if he has a time travel machine that allows him to travel back in time. He has the formula of success and he can apply that formula in Vietnam without having to pay for all the hiccups and setbacks, when he had started his businesses back then in his own country. You can clearly see that this trend will continue into the future.

对于日本人、韩国人或中国人来说，如果他有时间旅行机器可以回到过去，越南是一个很好的机会。他在本国创业成功了，那么他就可以把成功的模式复制到越南，不会再次为当初遇到过的问题和挫折支付学费。你可以清楚地看到，这种趋势未来还将持续。

Will Vietnam replace China as the world's largest manufacturer? Well that is not a really relevant question. I do not think that Vietnam wants to replace China as world’ s manufacturer. From my knowledge, I think that Vietnam’s model of development will be more similar to model of Korea and Japan.

越南会取代中国成为世界上最大的制造国吗？这个问题毫无意义。我并不认为越南想要取代中国成为世界工厂。据我所知，我认为越南的发展模式跟韩国和日本更相似。

Huey Truong

No. Vietnam could only become an assembly and re-export factory rather than a manufacturer hub. The reason is because Vietnam cannot develop a supporting industries. Vietnam's business and production mindset is also very limited. Vietnamese people are very passionate about business, but they like small businesses. Vietnamese people lack foresight and are afraid of risks and investments. Vietnamese enterprises prefer to make quick money and lament rather than find ways to solve obstacles and most importantly they do not see the importance of R&D. Vietnamese enterprises still prefer to depend on the supply chain from China, so in the long run, Vietnam can only become an assembly factory, not a manufacturing factory like China. Besides, the Vietnamese government does not have a strategic policy to stimulate or encourage the creation of supporting industries. The government said a lot but could not create the policy to promote the supporting industry. However, Vietnam on the other hand can become a strong country in the field of software development and Ai because the coding ability of Vietnamese people is always at the top in the world.

不。越南只能成为一个组装和再出口工厂，不可能成为制造中心。原因在于越南没有配套的产业。越南的商业和制造业思维也非常落后。越南人对经商充满热情，但他们喜欢做小生意。

越南人缺乏远见，害怕风险和投资。越南企业更喜欢赚快钱，而非寻找解决问题的方法，最重要的是他们还未意识到研发的重要性。

越南企业仍然依赖于中国的供应链，因此从长远来看，越南只能成为一个组装工厂，无法像中国那样成为一个制造工厂。此外，越南政府没有战略性政策来刺激或鼓励配套产业的发展。

政府只是口嗨，从未制定政策来发展配套产业。不过另一方面，越南可以发展成软件开发和人工智能领域的强国，因为越南人的编码能力一直处于世界前列。

ThienLuan Le

No. Vietnam indeed is doing everything to improve her manufacturing competence. Yet not and never becoming “a new China". The size of population and area of Vietnam is just barely the same as an average province of China, yet China has opened the door for businesses with the world outside, as well as acquiring high technologies even before Vietnam . In all aspects, including manufacturing products, Vietnam can only become better than herself but to become powerful like China is beyond her capability. Doing things that are not beyond your strength is a wise choice.

不可能。越南确实在竭力提高自己的制造能力。但它永远也不可能成为“下一个中国”。越南的人口和面积仅仅相当于中国一个省的平均水平，但中国在越南之前就向世界敞开了商业大门，并掌握了高新技术。在包括生产制造等各个方面，越南只能变成更好的自己，但无法做到像中国那样强大。做自己力所能及的事，才是明智的选择。

Michael Sue

Just ABSOLUTELY impossible ! Look at REALITY ! …. Vietnam is NOT even 10% of China’s population, and just the manufacturing capabilities of Guangdong province alone can leave Vietnam 6 laps behind !! [* As well, Vietnam does not have the supply chain to support its raw materials / accessories / for the factories. MOST are imported from China ]

绝对不可能！睁开眼看看现实吧！．．．． 越南的人口还未及中国的10%，区区一个广东省的制造能力就能把越南远远甩在身后[*此外，越南也没有成熟的供应链为工厂供应原材料/配件，绝大部分都需要从中国进口]

Don’t let western media disinformation mis-lead you into this fallacy ! It isn’t reality ! [ * FYI, I have manufactured in both countries since 2005 in Vietnam, and since 1980’s in China ]. Fact? = NO OTHER COUNTRY ON THIS PLANET CAN REPLACE CHINA AS THE WORLD’S LARGEST MANUFACTURER !!! PERIOD .

不要被西方媒体的虚假信息误导了！这并非现实！[*供参考，我从2005年开始在越南开办工厂，而且1980年就开始在中国办厂了]。想听听事实吗？在这个星球上，没有任何国家可以取代中国世界工厂的地位。说完了。

Martin Vratny

Related

Which country will be the next world's factory when China can't be anymore?

Not a country.

An entire continent.

如果中国不再是世界工厂，哪个国家将取代中国？

任何单个国家都是做不到的。

除非整个大陆联手。

China has already started moving some of their production into Africa. As they move away from the low-end of production, they need to build up infrastructure in other countries. They pour unbelievable amounts of resources into many African nations through the Belt and Road Initiative.

In blue, nations that signed on to the Belt and Road.
 

中国已经开始将部分生产转移到非洲。随着他们放弃低端制造业，他们需要在其他国家建设工厂。他们通过“一带一路”向许多非洲国家注入了令人难以置信的资源。

蓝色部分是已经签署了“一带一路”协议的国家。

African nations have quite good relationships with China. Even historically. They strongly supported their independence movements, and never really “owned” Africa. They are building roads, factories, powerplants, dams…

According to CNBC, The total value of Chinese investments and construction in Africa is closing in on $2 trillion since 2005, according to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) China Global Investment Tracker.

非洲国家与中国的关系很好。历史上也是如此。中国强烈支持非洲的独立运动，从来没想过“占有”非洲。他们在非洲修建道路、工厂、发电厂、大坝……

据CNBC报道，美国企业研究所中国全球投资跟踪报告显示，自2005年以来，中国在非洲的投资和建设总额已接近2万亿美元。

So, they build up the cooperating African nations and secure themselves a “new China” in the process.

因此，他们在合作的非洲国家大搞建设，并让非洲国家成为“新的中国”。

Goodi Shang

Vietnam can surpass China. But much remains to be done.

越南是可以超越中国的，但仍然任重道远。

The first is to increase the territorial area. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand form a federal country. If you can join Indonesia, it will be easier to achieve the goal.

The second is to increase the population. The most fundamental material for creating wealth is population.

第一步是要扩大领土面积。越南、柬埔寨、老挝和泰国要组成联邦制国家。如果再把印尼拉进来，可以更容易实现目标。

第二步要增加人口。创造财富最基本的要素就是人口。

The third is to strengthen infrastructure construction. If your country wants to be rich, it must first build roads. This is China's valuable experience and is being promoted to the world through the Belt and Road Initiative.

Fourth, to strengthen military construction and become a rich country, we must be able to protect the mature fruits.

第三步要加强基础设施建设。国家想要富裕就必须先修路。这是中国的宝贵经验，正在通过“一带一路”向世界各国推广。

第四步要加强军事建设，建设富裕国家，必须能够护住自己的胜利果实。

Etai Bozner

Related

Will China remain the factory of the world?

“Yes, but not because of the price”

China has been nicknamed the "factory of the world" for a reason, businesses from all over the world have already realized that in order to streamline, sell at a greater profit and reduce costs to a minimum, one must turn to China.

中国还会是世界工厂吗？

“是的，但不再因为低价。”

中国被称为“世界工厂”是有原因的，世界各地的企业已经意识到，为了精简流程，降低成本，获得更高的利润，必须和中国合作。

In the past decade, China has positioned itself high on the highest-paying exporting countries, not only because of its competitive prices but also because of the high-quality manufacturing technologies it has developed over the years and continues to the high level of service it provides to its importers.

在过去的十年里，中国在出口收入最高的国家中名列前茅，这不仅是因为中国制造极具竞争力的价格，还因为中国多年来掌握的高及加工技术，为进口商提供了高水平的服务。

Other develo countries such as India, the Philippines, Malaysia and more can compete in China for the price but not quality, not at the production level and, moreover, at the service and the consistency level and will take quite a few years to qualify for the current level of China in the quality of exports.

其他发展中国家，如印度、菲律宾、马来西亚等，虽然可以在价格上与中国竞争，但在质量上不行，在生产水平上也不行，在服务和一致性水平上还是不行，他们想在出口质量上赶超中国目前的水平还需要相当长的时间。