What does it mean for the US when China passes its GDP?

当中国GDP超过美国时，对美国意味着什么？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Peter Elliott

Not that this is relevant so much but it crossed my mind on reading another answer. Years ago the US sought to bankrupt USSR in an arms race and succeeded so well! But they forgot to stop once the job was done. So much of the American GDP is wasted on a non exstent threat when the real threat has changed.

If all that bomb money had been diverted to infrastructure and supporting the efficient flow of goods both within and without the US you would be in such a different position right now.

虽然两者不是很有关联，但当我浏览另一个答案时，我突然就想到了这个问题。多年前，美国想方设法通过军备竞赛让苏联破产，他们成功了！但他们忘了悬崖勒马，适可而止。当真正的威胁悄然变化时，美国已经把巨额的GDP浪费在一个子虚乌有的假想敌上。

如果把用于轰炸的所有资金都用来进行基础设施建设，实现美国商品在境内外的高效运输，你们现在就大不相同了。

China built roads and rail and ports both inside and outside its country and as a result deserves the top position. But in the end the US falling means that Americans are worse off, China rising has little effect on how well off Americans are.

中国在国内外修建了公路、铁路和港口，因此理应位居榜首。但最后，美国的衰落意味着美国人的生活不复往昔，中国的崛起对美国人的生活水平几乎没有影响。

Brady Milton

Absolutely nothing. Russia has 3 times more nukes than USA and China has more financial crunch. So what. The USA, if it acts logically and in a rational manner is still the biggest power in the world. Maybe not forever but logically could you expect to be the leader until the end of time? get over it. None of the rest of us nations have a problem with being second best

绝对没用。俄罗斯的核武器是美国的3倍，中国的金融危机比美国更严重。所以呢？如果美国理性行事，仍然会是世界上最强大的国家。也许做不到永永远远，但从逻辑上讲，你也觉得永远第一不现实吧。我们这些国家就算排名第二也没问题。

Daniel Smith

Nothing

China has the world's largest population so it is not unusual to have a large GDP.

The US is the third most populated country on the planet. Still, the US managed to have the biggest economy on the planet for the last couple of decades.

这没啥。

中国人口世界第一，因此GDP高一点也不稀奇。

美国是全世界人口第三大国。在过去的几十年里，美国成为了世界上最大的经济体。

What makes things even more surprising is that the US manages to have the fifth highest GDP per capita despite having the world's third largest population.

出人意料的是，虽然美国人口排名世界第三，但其人均GDP却位居世界第五。

China has a GDP per capita of only $10,839 while the US which has a GDP per capita of $63,051. This means that the average American is roughly six times richer than the average Chinese.

Even if the Chinese economy becomes bigger than that of the US, the average American will always live better than the average Chinese.

中国人均GDP只有10839美元，而美国人均GDP达63051美元。这意味着美国人的平均财富大约是中国人的六倍。

即便中国的经济规模超过了美国，普通美国人的生活也绝对比普通中国人好。

The day when the GDP per capita of China comes closer to that of the US, only then there will be a real impact.

Till then, all these things are nothing more than useless noise.

The US will continue to be the world's main economic powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

除非中国人均GDP接近美国，才会对美国造成真正的影响。

在那之前，这些都只是无济于事的聒噪。

在可预见的未来，美国仍将是世界主要的经济强国。

Henry Young

An economic orgn forecasted that China overtakes US by 2028. Years ago, another orgn said that in terms of PPP, China overtook US.

What does it mean? Nothing. We have heard this often or perhaps too many. I am sure you expereinced the same.

某家经济机构预测，中国将在2028年超过美国。多年前，另一个组织称就购买力平价而言，中国已经超过了美国。

这是什么意思？无关紧要。我们经常会听到这种言论，早都听烦了。我相信你也有过同样的经历。

For US, for those in Capitol Hill and those politicians, more trade war? tech war? new kind of war other than hot war? tons of sanctions on China? thousands of Chinese companies in Entity List? Nobody knows.

They cant deny that phenomenon anymore. Reject - Denial - Accept. So they have to accept it.

对美国、国会议员和政客来说，多搞点贸易战？高科技战争？热战之外的新型战争？对中国实施大量制裁？把上千家中国公司列入企业名单？没有人会知道。

他们已经无法否认这种现象了。拒绝-否认-接受。所以他们不得不接受。

Implications are: politicans and US presidents have to ask what is wrong with the US system?

Should not de ocracy and freedom according to US definition and what US champion all these decades be the sole determining factor for a country?

这意味着：政客和美国总统不得不问，美国的制度究竟出了什么问题？

难道美国认定的以及美国几十年来所倡导的不该是一个国家命运的唯一决定因素吗？

If we cant beat them, should we join them?

Should US change over to socialist system?

Should US politicians study Pres i’s book on Governance of China and adapt it to US?

Spend many times more on military?

如果我们无法打败他们，我们要不要和他们联手？

美国应该采用他们的制度吗？

美国政客需不需要学习中国人的治国之策，并学以致用？

美国该不该把更多的钱花在军事上？

I think US would spend many times more on military, more aircraft carrier, more money on space force, underground force<?>, new type of force<?>,….may be tone down somewhat on US Contain China policy since it does not work, costs billions of money and US allies trade more and more with China. US would not change its capitalist system, more severe China bashing.

我认为美国会在军事上投入更多的钱，建更多的航空母舰，为太空部队、地下军队和新型部队追加投资....美国遏制中国的政策可能会有所收敛，因为美国发现这种手段不起作用，数十亿美元白白打了水漂。美国盟友与中国的贸易越来越多。美国不会改变自己的制度，会更激进地抨击中国。

John Spencer

It will mean that China will have much more economic clout to back up its military expansion and aggressive attempt to take over the world. The US military will be relegated to number two and will probably not be able to hold China in check at all.

这将意味着中国会拥有更大的经济影响力来支持其军事扩张的企图。美国军队则会屈居第二位，可能根本无力遏制中国。

Roger Shepard

Using the approach of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rate—the rate at which the currency of China is converted into that of the United States to buy the same “basket” of goods (automobiles/cell phones/laptop computers/condominiums); and, services (dental exams/car washes/1,000 mile airline trip/1,000 mile passenger train trip/four (4) year college education (B.S. Chemistry)), in both the US and China.

使用购买力平价的汇率计算方法—将中国货币兑换成美国货币，购买相同的“一篮子”商品(汽车/手机/笔记本电脑/公寓)的数值；以及在美国和中国的各类服务(牙科检查/洗车/ 1000英里的飞机航程/ 1000英里的列车里程/4年大学教育)。

By that measure the GDP of China exceeded that of the United States about five (5) full years ago. The PPP calculation for 2020 (as compiled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are as follows:

China - $24.810 Trillion

United States - $19.850 Trillion

As computed in US dollars for both countries.

Again this did not just become the case in 2020. It has been this way since 2015.

按照这种计算方法，中国的GDP大约在5年前就已经超过了美国。2020年的购买力平价计算(由国际货币基金组织编制)如下：

中国——24.810万亿美元

美国——19.850万亿美元

均已美元计算。

这并不是2020年才出现的情况。而是自2015年以来一直如此。

And as regards the effect of the present economic disruption of the US (due to the health crisis). Economists have for the twelve (12) years, identified the financial collapse of 2008 (and its aftermath), as having had a permanent and continuing consequence, of an irreversible relative economic decline for the US in particular.

至于目前美国经济崩溃的影响(源于健康危机)。12年来，经济学家们一直认为，2008年的金融危机(及其余波)具有永久性和持续性的后果，尤其对美国而言，这是一场不可逆转的经济衰退进程。

This fact led, in 2012; for global macro-economic analysts’ to conclude that the US in particular, and the West in general, were going to be overtaken by China; and the rest of the non Euro-American portion of the industrialized world (think Brazil, Indonesia, etc.), not in some hypothetical mid 21st century time frame. Nor, even in the first third (2033) of the 21st century. But very likely before 2025, well before the distant future that everyone (in the West) was comfortably imagining.

这一事实导致全球宏观经济分析师于2012年得出一个结论，美国，乃至整个西方社会，都将被中国和工业化世界中的其他非欧美国家(比如巴西、印度尼西亚等)超越，可能不会等到21世纪中期，也不会晚于21世纪的前三分之一(2033年)，极有可能会在2025年之前就实现，远远早于所有西方人都不以为意的遥远未来。

So with the current retrocession of the US’s economy due to the health crisis. Of course the US is presently the world’s second largest economy. And this fact is no longer reversible.

The irreversible nature of this shifting of position (and the consequences of same) are as but little discussed. Yet they really should be. The reporting in the economic press and by scholars and commentators, fashions these events as a kind of “horse race”; where there is “jockeying” back and forth, between (in this case) whole economic engines, and/or economic systems.

现在美国经济由于健康危机而出现了倒退。当然了，美国目前已沦为世界第二大经济体。这个事实已经不可逆转了。

人们对这种名次变化的不可逆转的本质(及其后果)避而不谈。但也确实也只能如此。经济媒体、学者和评论员的报道，将此类事件视为“赛马”，两国的经济引擎和/或经济系统不断进行“博弈”。

But that isn’t what’s going on. And in history that has not been what has happened.

In the United Kingdom in 1945, she could no longer ignore the reality, by 1945. The United Kingdom was fallen behind first the US, then Germany. The two world wars and the Great Depression, did not alter the growth and retrocession trends in their respective directions. And for the contestants fortunes. It was not a “horse race”. And there was no “jockeying” back and forth, between the economic engines.

This is the US’ begng realization of its “realignment” and downsizing.

但事实并非如此。在历史上，这种情况从未发生过。

1945年，英国先是落后于美国，然后又落后于德国。两次世界大战和大萧条都没有改变他们的经济增长和衰退的趋势。这不是“赛马”，各国之间经济引擎也不存在你来我往的“博弈”。

这让美国开始意识到自己的“排名变化”和“经济衰退”了。

Sam Zbib

The only scenario where this could happen, is with a dramatic or cataclysmic collapse of western currencies, including the Dollar, against the Yuan. This could happen as a consequence of decoupling in addition to prolonged disruptions in supply chains and service industries.

会发生这种情况的唯一情况是西方货币，包括美元对人民币出现戏剧性或灾难性崩溃。除了供应链和服务业的长期中断外，脱钩还可能导致这种情况的发生。

If it happens, it would be hard to reverse. US may see a silver lining with a lower dollar, however retooling the US economy for manufacturing will be hampered while decoupling is underway and the service sectors is in shock.

如果这种情况真的发生，结局则很难逆转。美国可能会看到美元贬值带来的一线希望，但由于脱钩一旦发生，服务业将受到重创，美国经济向制造业的转型将面临阻碍。

The US and other Western economies benefit greatly from being hard currencies especially in the financial services sector. So losing that status would take a long time to recover. Nothing is permanent.

美国和其他西方经济体因货币成为硬通货而获益匪浅，尤其是在金融服务领域尤为明显。因此，如果他们失去硬通货地位，会需要很长时间才能逐步恢复。没有什么是永恒不变的。

Peter Webb

The reason that China’s GDP is so high is not because it is a rich country, it is because it has a very large population. Absolute GDP is not a particularly useful measure of wealth; Norway has a tiny GDP (because it has a very small population) but is a very rich country.

中国的GDP如此之高，原因不在于是一个富裕的国家，而是因为人口众多。绝对GDP并不是衡量财富的一个特别有用的指标；挪威的GDP很少（因为人口很少），但却是一个非常富裕的国家。

China is unlikely to achieve the same GDP/capita as the US in the long term, because it has a far higher population density which means less natural resources (agricultural land, minerals etc). In the next few decades, it might reach 2/3rds of the US, which would give it a GDP about double that of the US.

长期来看，中国的人均GDP不太可能实现追上美国，因为中国的人口密度太高了，这意味着自然资源(农业用地、矿产等)相对不足。在未来几十年，中国的人均GDP可能会达到美国的三分之二，中国的GDP因此将达到美国的两倍左右。

继续阅读：中国GDP   人均GDP   中国经济   美国GDP

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