Is it possible that the Yuan currency will replace the dollar currency? Why and why not?

人民币能取代美元吗？为什么？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Yu-Hsing Chen

Possible? sure

But there are huge issues that would prevent them from being the main reserve / trading currency anytime soon.

The mechanics that make the dollar reserve system work is complex and multi layered, for the RMB to replicate it would need at least a clear exchange mechanism, right now the RMB is still largely pegged to the USD and a few other currency (in a range.)

clear and reliable flow: right now most people can’t even really get their money out of the mainland easily, even with an off shore exchange that’s hard.

有没有可能？当然有可能。

但有一个大问题会阻碍人民币在短期内成为主要的储备/贸易货币。

美元储备体系运作的机制是复杂和多层的，人民币想要复制至少需要搭建一个透明的汇率机制，目前人民币仍然主要是跟美元和其他一些货币挂钩(在一定范围内)。

清晰可靠的资金流动：现在多数中国人无法随便将资金转移出大陆，就算是按离岸交易汇率也很难。

However, there could be potentially ways to imagine other things like a neutral non-soverign exchange unit etc. but that requires a lot of collaboration and work.

不过也可以设计其他方式，比如中立的非主权交易单位等，但这需要大量的合作和工作。

Larry Paise

Replaces it, totally?? As in all purchases made inside the US would be denominated in Yuan?

Don't be silly.

完全取代？？美国境内购买所有商品都以人民币付费？

别傻了。

Lonely Cantonese Sith Lord

The simple answer is that the yuan isn’t replacing the dollar. Saying so is a gross misunderstanding of what China is striving for.

The current world order of US hegemony (also known as the “rules-based order”) is built on the US’s ability to passively harvest wealth from all around the world, and transfer its own financial crises overseas, simply by printing money. Take away its power to do that - to make money by printing money - and American hegemony crumbles. It doesn't matter which currency people choose to rally behind, so long as it's not the dollar.

简单说，人民币并不想取代美元。这个说法严重曲解了中国努力奋斗的目标。

当前以美国霸权为主导的世界秩序(也被称为“基于规则的秩序”)，是建立在美国通过印钞就能被动地从世界各地攫取财富，并将自己的金融危机转嫁到海外的能力之上的。如果剥夺了美国通过印钞票赚钱的能力，美国的霸权就会崩溃。人们选择支持哪种货币都不重要，只要不是美元就行。

Even though yuan reserves are steadily increasing all around the world, it is still far more likely that the dollar will be replaced by the euro (the second largest reserve currency in the world) than the yuan (fifth largest).

In fact, that was a major part of the reason why Saddam Hussein was toppled by the US - he ditched the dollar and tried to trade oil in euros:

尽管人民币储备在全球范围内稳步增加，但美元更有可能被欧元(世界第二大储备货币)取代，而非人民币(世界第五大储备货币)。

事实上，这正是萨达姆·侯赛因被美国推番的主要原因——他弃用了美元，试图用欧元交易石油：

The whole point of having a multi-polar world order (as spearheaded by countries like China) is so that every country on earth can be free to decide their own fate, instead of being at the mercy of a single hegemon. True sovereignty, true independence, true economic freedom. That means trading in their own currencies, instead of another country’s.

多极世界秩序(以中国等国为先锋)的意义在于，地球上的每个国家都可以自由决定自己的命运，无需忍受单一霸权国家的摆布。真正的主权，真正的独立，真正的经济自由。这意味着他们可以用本国货币，而非别国货币进行贸易。

A good example of this is China and Brazil's recent groundbreaking deal to ditch the dollar. Brazil isn’t forced to dump the dollar for the yuan. Rather, China and Brazil will be directly exchanging yuan and reais, instead of having to convert them to dollars first. This reduces costs and boosts trade and development.

Again, emphasis on the ability to trade in their own currencies.

一个很好的例子就是中国和巴西最近突破性地达成了弃用美元的协议。中国没有逼迫巴西抛售美元，换成人民币。相反，中国和巴西会直接兑换人民币和雷亚尔，不用再把它们兑换成美元。这降低了交易成本，促进了贸易和发展。

我要再次强调，这就是用本国货币进行贸易的能力。

This is why China is being increasingly welcomed among develo countries - it doesn’t force itself upon others. It doesn’t force them to adopt its political system, its ideology, or its currency.

这就是为什么中国越来越受到发展中国家的欢迎——它从不仗势欺人。中国不会强迫其他国家接受中国的制度、意识形态或货币。

All it does is offer win-win trade deals and infrastructure projects. And if a country rejects the Chinese offer, you know what the Chinese do? They walk away. They actually leave said county in peace. They don’t sanction, topple and invade said country, and accuse them of human rights violations or having weapons of mass destruction.

中国奉上的是双赢的贸易协议和基础设施项目。如果一个国家拒绝了中国的提议，你知道中国人是怎么做的吗？他们转身离开。他们心平气和。他们不会制裁、推番甚至入侵这些国家，也不会指责他们侵犯了世界， 或拥有什么大规模杀伤性武器。

China was never an enemy of the US. The US has always been its own worst enemy.

中国从来不是美国的敌人。美国一直都是自己最大的敌人。

Kadinkai

Replace, as in become the most dominate reserve currency? No, I don’t think it will.

It is quite clear that the world does not want another currency that is overly powerful and dominant, with the power to bring down countries.

This is the main reason why countries are moving away from the dollar. The banning of Iran and Russia from SWIFT was a wake up call.

取代美元，成为最主要的储备货币？不，我认为不可能。

很明显，世界各国不希望看到某种太过强大和称王称霸的货币，这种货币会拖垮一些国家的经济。

这是各国逐渐放弃美元的主要原因。禁止伊朗和俄罗斯使用SWIFT就是一记警钟。

I think what is happening is that many countries are heavily promoting their currencies and the dollar, renminbi and the euro will be the most used simply because of their market size.

But other currencies from stable countries will also be used for international payments.

In the past, the SWIFT system dominated and still does, but technology has improved and its easier to use other systems and currencies.

目前很多国家都在大力推广自己的货币，而美元、人民币和欧元会是最为常用的货币，但这只是因为它们的市场规模较大而已。

但在国际支付中也会使用其他经济稳定的国家的货币。

过去，SWIFT系统占主导地位，现在仍然如此，但技术不断进步，其他系统和货币都更容易使用了。

PillowSound

It is unlikely that the Yuan currency will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the near future. Here are some reasons why:

人民币不太可能在不久的将来取代美元成为世界储备货币。原因如下：

Size of the Chinese economy: While the Chinese economy is large and growing, it is still not as large as the US economy. The US GDP in 2020 was over $21 trillion, while China's was just over $15 trillion. The US also has a higher GDP per capita, which suggests that the US economy is more productive and wealthy on a per-person basis.

中国的经济规模：尽管中国的经济规模十分庞大且不断增长，但仍不及美国的经济规模。2020年，美国GDP超过21万亿美元，而中国的GDP刚刚超过15万亿美元。美国的人均GDP也更高，这表明以人均收入来计算，美国经济的生产力更高，更加富裕。

Stability and trust: The US dollar has been the world's reserve currency for many decades and is considered a stable and reliable currency. It is widely accepted around the world, and most international transactions are conducted in dollars. The US also has a well-developed financial system and an independent central bank that helps maintain the stability of the currency. The Chinese currency, on the other hand, has only recently begun to be used in international transactions, and there is less trust in its stability and reliability.

稳定和信任：几十年来，美元一直是世界储备货币，被视为稳定可靠的货币。美元在世界各地得到了广泛的接受，大多数国际交易都是用美元结算的。美国还拥有发达的金融体系和独立的央行，有助于维持美元的稳定。另一方面，中国货币最近才开始在国际交易中使用，人们对其稳定性和可靠性的信任度还比较低。

Political and economic factors: The US has long been a global superpower, and its political and economic influence is significant. This influence extends to the US dollar, which is used to settle international trade and investment transactions. The chinese, by contrast, maintains tight control over the yuan and the country's financial system. This has led to concerns about transparency and the risk of political interference in financial markets.

政治和经济因素：美国长期以来一直是全球超级大国，其政治和经济影响力十分巨大。这种影响延伸到了用来结算国际贸易和投资交易的美元。相比之下，中国对人民币和中国的金融体系保持着严格的控制。这引发了人们对金融市场透明度和政治干预风险的担忧。

Capital controls: China's government imposes capital controls that restrict the ability of investors to move money into and out of the country. This makes it harder for the yuan to become a truly global currency, as investors may be reluctant to hold a currency that is not freely convertible.

资本管制：中国实施资本管制，限制了投资者将资金流入和流出中国的能力。这使得人民币很难成为真正的全球货币，因为投资者可能不愿持有一种无法自由兑换的货币。

While it is possible that the yuan could become more widely used in international transactions over time, it is unlikely that it will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency anytime soon. The US dollar has a long-established reputation and a strong foundation in the global financial system that would be difficult for any other currency to replicate.

随着时间的推移，人民币有可能在国际交易中得到更广泛的使用，但它不太可能很快取代美元成为世界储备货币。美元在全球金融体系中有着悠久的声誉和坚实的基础，这是其他任何货币都难以复制的。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

US Dollar is the largest global reserve currency and almost 76% of the Worlds Supply.

Chinese Remimbi is around 4.6% , behind the Yen and Euro

What this means is USD can be accepted in any country on earth and can be routed back to the federal reserve in US in Billions

美元是全球最大的储备货币，几乎占全球货币供应的76%。

人民币约占4.6%，落后于日元和欧元。

这意味着美元可以被地球上的任何国家接受，并可以以数十亿美元的规模汇回美国联邦储备系统。

It means over 86% of all instruments, LCs, Escrows, Guarantees are in US Dollars

It means 64.2% of the Worlds investments are in US Dollars of which 43.6% are in USA and its financial markets

Nearly 96% Banks in the world trade in US Dollars regularly or USD based or backed securities.

这意味着86%以上的信用证、信托、担保都是用美元计价。

这意味着世界上64.2%的投资是美元计价，其中43.6%汇聚在美国及其金融市场。

全球近96%的银行是以美元或以美元为基础或支持的证券进行交易的。

How does the RMB even come close?

US has a nearly 80 year head start and began under the Marshall Plan to lend massive sums of US Dollars to Western Europe and UK based on which the Deutschemarks, pounds, francs, lire, guilders all became stronger and stronger

British and European Banks received Billions of USD backed securities and began using them for Trade all the way to the EEC in the 1960s-1970s

人民币差得可不是一星半点。

美国有近80年的领先优势，在马歇尔计划下开始向西欧和英国提供大量美元贷款，在此基础上，德国马克、英镑、法郎、里拉、荷兰盾都变得越来越强。

英国和欧洲的银行获得了数十亿美元的担保证券，并在20世纪60年代至70年代开始将它们用于与欧洲经济共同体的贸易。

From that moment US replaced every single currency until the Euro (2001) or Yen (2005) or Remimbi (2017–18) came to the front as very small minnows

RMB cannot hope to have even a 25% influence until US is destroyed like UKs economy in World war II

从那一刻起，美国取代了每一种货币，直到欧元(2001年)、日元(2005年)或人民币(2017-18年)开始崭露头角。

除非美国像二战中的英国那样经济被毁于一旦，否则人民币连美元25%的影响力都实现不了。

Hilmar Zonneveld

For the USA? - Sure, this sort of thing has already happened. For example, after a hyperinflation (1985–1987 or so), Bolivia changed its currency, form “Pesos” to “Bolivianos” - with one million pesos being exchanged for one boliviano.

For other countries, as a sort of “international currency”? - Sure, this sort of thing has also already happened, with the US dollar replacing the British Pound, which was quite popular some decades ago.

对美国而言—当然，这种事是发生过的。例如，在恶性通货膨胀之后(1985-1987年左右)，玻利维亚将其货币从“比索”改为“玻利维亚诺”——100万比索兑换1玻利维亚诺。

对其他国家而言，作为一种“国际货币”？—当然，这种事也是发生过的。美元就将几十年前相当流行的英镑取而代之了。

Cze Low

I am not sure if the Yuan would be replacement for the dollar. China is not interested to be. Perhaps a basket of currencies and gold would be more acceptable.

我不确定人民币能否取代美元。中国对此也不感兴趣。也许一揽子货币和黄金会更受欢迎。

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