If China decided to invade Japan instead of Taiwan, do you think it would be victorious?

如果中国攻打日本，胜算大吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

David Barry

Related

If China were to invade Japan in the future, how do you think the world would react?

China isn’t planning to invade .

Most of the world isn’t against China.

如果中国攻打日本，全世界会作何反应？

中国并不打算发动进攻

世界上大多数国家也不会反对中国。

I suspect this question was written by an American! Even if China did invade, are the only US allies, the Europeans going to want to obey the US sanctioning crap even more? They face a fuel and possibly a food crisis this winter. How much more do Americans expect Europeans to suffer for their hegemonic plans? The World is turning against the USA now. It’s the US vs The World now.

我怀疑这个问题就是美国人提出来的！即便中国真的入侵了，美国唯一的盟友，欧洲人还愿意遵守美国的制裁废话吗？今年冬天，欧洲面临着燃料危机，甚至可能发生食物危机。美国人还指望欧洲人为他们的霸权计划付出多少代价？现在全世界都在反对美国。现在是美国 vs 世界。

Wolfgang Maleck

No.

Really no.

胜算不大。

真的不大。

1. It is kind of doubtful whether an invasion of Taiwan could be successful.

2. Japan has FAR more population and a far stronger military than Taiwan.

3. Japan is much further away, making the LOGISTICS of an invasion of Japan difficult.

1. 武统台湾能否成功，都有点令人怀疑。

2.  日本比台湾省的人口更多，军事力量强大得多。

3. 日本和中国的距离更远，如果攻打日本，后勤工作比较困难。

Gwydion Madawc Williams

If China can't even invade Taiwan, how could it possibly invade Japan?

Why should China wish to invade Japan? Kublai Khan did it as Mongol Great Khan, and it was part of his notion of himself as World Ruler.

如果中国连台湾地区都没能统一，怎么可能攻得下日本呢？

为什么中国要攻打日本呢？忽必烈还是蒙古大汗的时候曾经打过日本，这是他成为世界统治者的步骤之一。

Ed Griffiths

China is not able to admit defeat

If (when) it suffers horrific losses, even more than Putin it won't be able to think of stop its war.

It will win, but only at the cost of hundreds of thousands, maybe a million dead on the Chinese.

中国是不会承认失败的。

如果中国遭受失败，比普京遭受更大的失败，中国不会考虑停止战争。

中国会取得对日战争的胜利，但代价是牺牲几十万，甚至上百万人的性命。

Cyrus Gideon

Assuming that this is a 1 v 1 with no allies/nukes involved for either side, China doesn't even have to invade Japan. Just surround it and blockade it into submission. The Japanese military is one of the best for its size and it is arguably the strongest non-nuclear armed country in the world(comparable to the likes of Germany and Poland and imo better than Italy, Turkey, and South Korea). Their biggest weakness is that they are an island nation and very reliant on imports for their economy to function. Japan has no oil reserves and thus, if they were blockaded, they would suddenly find themselves running out of basic necessities like oil and food. In addition, the Japanese maritime self defence force, while a highly capable force at defense, is not very strong offensively, and thus would have a hard time launching a counter offensive against China, allowing China to just slowly strangle it into submission. While this would take many years to do so, China can afford to just sit back and wait for Japan to collapse. Japan does not have this luxury. In the end Japan is faced with 2 choices.

如果是一对一单挑，双方都不能动用盟友和核武器，中国压根不需要入侵日本。中国只需包围日本就足以不战而屈人之兵。

就其规模而言，日本军队是全球最好的军队之一，可以说是世界上最强大的无核武装国家(与德国和波兰等国相当，在我看来强过意大利、土耳其和韩国)。

他们最大的弱点在于他们是一个岛国，经济运行非常依赖进口。日本没有石油储备，因此，一旦被封锁，他们会突然发现自己的石油和食物等基本必需品会弹尽粮绝。

此外，日本海上自卫队虽然防御能力很强，但进攻能力偏弱，很难对中国发起反攻，只能眼睁睁看着中国慢慢将日本逼上绝路。

虽然这需要很多年的时间，但中国耗得起。最终，日本面临两种选择。

1. Attempt an attack and cause more Chinese casualties in the immediate future but also lose a lot of its fleet in the heat of battle. Even if Japan achieves a several to 1 kill-loss ratio, China can take the losses while Japan cannot

2. Do not engage Chinese blockading forces and just wait to see who can out last who in a defensive war of attrition. Again China has more resources so it can afford to wait and out last Japan.

1. 迅速组织攻击，造成中国人更大的伤亡，但他们自己也会在激战时折损大量舰队。即便日本达到1:1战损率，中国可以承受更大的伤亡，但日本不能。

2. 不要和中国的封锁部队交战，看谁能在防御消耗战中撑到最后。但中国有更多的资源，所以它可以耐心等待并最终击败日本。

Neither option yields good long term results for Japan. Although if your question is can China attempt an invasion of Japan on immediate notice and expect to succeed, then the answer is definitely NO! I doubt any country(including the US) would have an easy time actually launching an amphibious invasion of Japan out of the blue without resorting to nuclear weapons. The Japanese military was trained and designed specifically to repell amphibious invasions and are very good at what they do. Attempting an invasion out of the blue would be suicidal and an even bigger humiliation than Russia's attack on Ukraine

这两种选择都无法给日本带来好下场。虽然如果你的问题是中国能否迅速入侵日本并取得成功，那么答案肯定是否定的！

我怀疑任何国家(包括美国)在不动用核武器的情况下，会轻易地对日本发动两栖入侵。

日本军队就是专门为击退两栖入侵而进行训练和设计的，他们非常擅长这一点。

贸然入侵日本无异于自杀行为，将会是比俄罗斯攻击乌克兰更大的耻辱。

Gabi Roz

Absolutely not. Japan is a large island very far from the Chinese mainland and is already occupied by American forces besides Japan self-defense forces. Attacking Japan would mean attacking the US as well, and unlike in Taiwan, the US is fully positioned to defend Japan.

China would lose every single asset and life put into the mission without even cusing that much damage to Japan or the US.

绝对不可能。日本是一个远离中国大陆的大岛，除了日本自卫队之外，还有美军驻扎。进攻日本也就意味着进攻美国，美国完全有能力保护日本。

中国不但损兵折将，还无法重创日本或美国。

David Liu

Will Japan go for a war with China if China invades Taiwan tomorrow?

lol…

Japan has no capacity to fight china…japan is not a play gamer like usa/china/russia,but a game chip on table like taiwan…one game chip can not save another game chip,can it?

after industry revolution, military power roots from industry capacity…while in 2018,china’s industry capacity was 4 times of japan’s after impacted by covid19, china’s superiority is even consolidated/larger…

如果中国明天武统台湾，日本会与中国开战吗?

哈哈

日本没有能力对抗中国，日本又不是美国、中国和俄罗斯那样的游戏玩家，日本只是小喽喽，一个小喽喽也救不了另一个小喽喽，对吧？

工业革命后，军事实力就基于工业实力了。即便受新冠肺炎疫情的影响，中国的工业能力也已达到日本的4倍之大，中国的优势得到了进一步的巩固和扩大…

Chuck Duncan

No. China wouldn’t be able gain air superiority or be able to sweep subs the way they can around Taiwan. There are 7 US military installations in Japan and more in S. Korea. The USN would be much freer to operate in and around Japan.

Japan is itself very capable and would be flooded with US reinforcements.

不可能。中国无法获得空中优势，也无法荡平潜艇。美国在日本有7个军事基地，在韩国还有更多。美国海军可以随心所欲地在日本及其周边地区活动。

日本自己就不弱，还有美国的大力增援。

Dan-Wee Loh

Why would China want to invade Japan?

But the reverse had happed. Japan had in the past invaded China, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, tge Philippines, Malay, Sarawak, Singapore, Sabah and Indonesia under unprovoked conditions…

为什么中国要入侵日本？

事实恰恰相反。日本过去曾无端入侵过中国、越南、泰国、缅甸、菲律宾、马来、沙捞越、新加坡、沙巴和印度尼西亚……

SAMANTHA

China wouldn't do that or they would have done it ages ago. War right now in the modern day world of 2023 doesn't benefit anybody, China, the US. It will literally bring down the world. Afghanistan Iraq was enough and that was just america

中国不会这么做的，要做的话早就这么做了。2023年的现代战争对中国和美国都没有好处，会让世界毁于一旦。阿富汗、伊拉克的战争就够了，都是美国捣的鬼。

Swee Chen

Why would you think that China is interested in invading Japan? If you can share that, I promise to give you my best considered answer.

Otherwise my advice is to give some thought to the questions you may want to pose on Quora. It is not unreasonable to expect you to put in some groundwork if you want someone else to spend time and energy to respond intelligently and constructively to your questions.

为什么你认为中国想要入侵日本？如果你能说说理由，我保证我会在深思熟虑后给出我的答案

我这边建议你，考虑一下自己在Quora上提出的问题。如果你想让别人花时间、花精力、聪明而有建设性地回答你的问题，你自己提前把一些基础工作做好也是合理的吧。

Isaiah Rodgers

It is difficult to predict the exact outcome of a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Japan. However, given the current military capabilities of both countries, it is likely that Japan would be better equipped to defend itself against a Chinese invasion. Japan has a larger and more advanced military than China, and its defense forces are well-trained and experienced in defending against foreign invasions. Additionally, Japan has the support of the United States and its allies, which could further bolster its defense capabilities. Therefore, it is unlikely that a Chinese invasion of Japan would be successful.

如果中国入侵日本，准确结果很难预测。但是鉴于两国目前的军事能力，日本的武器装备更为精良，可以防御中国的进攻。日本拥有比中国更庞大、更先进的军事力量，防卫力量训练有素，在抵御外敌入侵方面经验丰富。此外，日本还有美国及其盟友撑腰，防御能力进一步加强。所以中国攻打日本是不可能获胜的。

Penggang Zhang

The question is very absurd and stupid.

Firstly, China is not USA, can’t invade someone country casually.

这个问题简直是又荒谬又愚蠢。

首先，中国不是美国，不会随便入侵其他国家。