India's population to overtake China – what does this mean for the world?

印度人口将超过中国——这对世界意味着什么?

India is expected to surpass China as the world's most populous nation in 2023. Both countries have more than 1.4 billion people, but where India's population is relatively young, compared to the rest of the world, China's birth rate is in decline and its population is getting older.

2023年，印度将超过中国成为世界上人口最多的国家。这两个国家都有超过14亿人口，但与世界其他国家相比，印度的人口相对年轻，而中国的出生率正在下降，人口正在老龄化。

What does this mean for India?

这对印度意味着什么?

By 2047, 1 in 5 people working in the world will be from India, according to India's Century, a report charting a roadmap for India's future, by McKinsey & Company and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry.

麦肯锡公司和印度工商会联合会联合发布的《印度世纪》报告显示，到2047年，全球五分之一的工作年龄段人口将来自印度。该报告描绘了印度未来的路线图。

Alok Khirsagar, India's Century co-author, highlights the importance of leveraging on India's digital infrastructure to generate jobs for India's young population.

《印度世纪》的合著者阿洛克·基尔萨加强调了利用印度的数字基础设施为印度年轻人创造就业机会的重要性。

"It's very important that we're able to use technology to distribute manufacturing services into smaller towns and smaller cities, and not as dependent on the large cities to drive growth," he said to CNBC.

他对CNBC的记者表示：“我们能够利用技术将制造业服务分布到小城镇和小城市，而不是依赖大城市来推动增长，这非常重要。”

He predicts that agriculture, education, logistics, transport, food and small consumer goods are industries that India will provide services for on a global scale.

他预测，印度将在全球范围内为农业、教育、物流、运输、食品和小型消费品等行业提供服务。

How will India's economy benefit?

印度经济将如何受益?

Manufacturing remains a key industry for India, with companies looking to diversify production away from China due to worker disruptions in Chinese supply chains.

制造业仍是印度的一个关键行业，由于中国供应链的工人缺乏，企业正寻求将生产从中国分散出去。

The supply chains of global brands such as Samsung, Apple, Oppo, Vivo, iaomi and Lenovo are also moving to India, Antara Ghosal Singh, an analyst from Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation told CNBC.

印度智库观察者研究基金会的分析师Antara Ghosal Singh告诉CNBC，三星、苹果、Oppo、Vivo、小米和联想等全球品牌的供应链也在向印度转移。

以下是各国网友的评论：

Hayk Karapetyan

As an Armenian, it's inspiring to see the remarkable economic growth that India has achieved in recent years. With a population of over 1.4 billion people, India's economy has become one of the fastest-growing in the world. It's truly remarkable to see how India has leveraged its strengths in sectors like technology, agriculture, and manufacturing to drive growth and create new opportunities for its citizens. Congratulations to India on this impressive achievement!

作为一名亚美尼亚人，看到印度近年来取得的显著经济增长真是鼓舞人心。

拥有超过14亿人口的印度已经成为世界上经济增长最快的国家之一。

看看印度是如何利用其在科技、农业和制造业等领域的优势来推动经济增长并为其公民创造新机会的，真是令人瞩目。

向印度取得令人印象深刻的成就表示祝贺

bluesteel

As an Indian I think not everything is that simple. Factoring into account AI, global economy, trends against globalisation. It is frankly hard to predict, anyone saying otherwise is making shots in the air. All we can do is keep our head down and continue to grind.

作为一个印度人，我认为不是所有事情都那么简单，考虑到人工智能，全球经济，反全球化趋势。坦率地说，很难预测。我们所能做的就是埋头苦干。

Pratik Patil

As an Indian, I am excited for India's future and working towards making it wonderful.

作为印度人，我为印度的未来感到兴奋，我会努力让印度变得更加美好。

Kavish HURBUNGS

As an Indian, I am proud to see my country flourishing.

作为一个印度人，看到国家蓬勃发展我很自豪。

WARHAMMER222

China is glad to hand over the most populous title to India.  China is going through and transitioning to modern high tech society, hard to fill 1.4 billion population with jobs and keep them well fed is another issue.  With modern society heading towards 4th industrialization and A.I implementation... less is more.

中国很高兴把人口最多的头衔交给印度。

中国正在经历并向现代高科技社会过渡，很难为14亿人口提供工作，让他们吃饱又是一个问题。

随着现代社会走向第四次工业化和人工智能的实施，少即是多。

John F

The economic development model has silently shifted from "quantity" to "quality" starting 2020 as AI emerged to rewrite the concept of "Productivity" in human history. Unfortunately India has just caught the tail of "mass human manufacturing" that lifted China up during the past 2 decades, cheap labor no longer equals to large scale of job creation as many of these jobs will be replaced by robots in next decade,  India's population could actually become a burden for its development going forward...

从2020年开始，随着人工智能的出现，改写人类历史上的“生产力”概念，经济发展模式已经悄然从“数量”转向“质量”。

不幸的是，印度刚抓住过去20年推动中国崛起的“大规模人类制造业”的尾巴，廉价劳动力不再等于大规模创造就业机会，

其中许多工作将在未来10年被机器人取代，印度的人口实际上可能成为其发展的负担…

16

As a Chinese, this is the best news I have heard. Congratulations on India becoming the world's most populous country.

作为一个中国人，这是我听到的最好的消息。祝贺印度成为世界上人口最多的国家。

inzzz

It's impressive to see India become the fastest growing economy. But I am not particularly happy about us leading the population numbers! The goal should be to become as efficient as possible. With rising population, GDP per capita should also increase exponentially. Lots of comparison being made to China, but what China has been able to achieve in a short span of 20 years is truly remarkable. For India to grow at that pace and build high quality infrastructure everywhere in the country will be a huge challenge by 2047. But I am hopeful and positive, as long we continue to grow and improve in every aspect we will be in top 3 very soon. Exciting times ahead for sure!

印度成为增长最快的经济体，令人印象深刻。但我对我们在人口数量上领先不是特别高兴！我们的目标应该是尽可能地提高效率。随着人口的增长，人均GDP也应该呈指数级增长。很多人拿中国做比较，但中国在短短20年里所取得的成就确实令人瞩目。对印度来说，到2047年，以这样的速度增长并在全国各地建设高质量的基础设施将是一个巨大的挑战。但我很乐观，只要我们在各个方面继续成长和改进，我们很快就会进入前三。激动人心的时刻即将到来!

Ankit Tiwari

India's growing population can be a demographic advantage or can be demographic disaster ! .... We need to jeep growing and creating all kinds of jobs .... This is hoing to be very hard as the world now is shifting more and more towards automisation ! .... I don't know how India is going to achieve that but we need to do it and fast ! .... We need an annual growth rate of atleaet 9 to 10 percent in order to achieve that ! .... It is going to be tricky ! ....

印度不断增长的人口可能是人口优势，也可能是灾难！我们需要增长，创造各种工作，这是非常难的，因为现在世界正越来越多地转向自动化！

我不知道印度将如何实现这一目标，但我们必须尽快做到！

为了实现这一目标，我们需要每年保持9%-10%的增长率，这将是棘手的！

Ekam Sat

India has an interesting advantage given its uneven socioeconomic development due to historic reasons. It will keep gaining from successive waves of - rather than rushed - development over several decades into the future. If the government can provide basic healthcare and education to the poorer sections of society, then they'll keep ensuring cheap labor and relatively manageable levels of consumption. And thereby limiting pollution, greenhouse gas emission, environmental degradation, etc. However, if the government chooses instead to adopt a populist policy towards the poor, and keep them thus for votes, then it might be a different story.

考虑到历史原因导致的社会经济发展不平衡，印度有一个有趣的优势。在未来几十年里，印度将不断从一波接一波的（而不是仓促的）发展中获益。

如果政府能够为社会中较贫困的群体提供基本的医疗保健和教育，那么他们将继续确保廉价劳动力和相对可控的消费水平，从而限制污染、温室气体排放、环境退化等。

然而，如果印度政府选择对穷人采取民粹主义政策，并以此拉选票，那么情况可能就不同了。

ivan cai

I can't phantom what benefits does having the biggest population brings. On aggregation it might make the country richer and stronger, but the reality for individuals are very different and contrary. With AI and Robotic revolutiona taking a huge hold in society,  I can see the huge under educated population will see their future becoming more uncertain as they are being automated, the use of smart farming systems will make the poor rural even poorer.

我想不出拥有最多的人口会带来什么好处。总的来说，它可能会让国家变得更富有、更强大，但对个人来说，现实却截然相反。随着人工智能和机器人革命在社会中发挥巨大作用，我可以看到大量未受教育的人口将看到他们的未来变得更加不确定，因为他们正在被自动化，智能农业系统的使用将使贫穷的农村更加贫穷。

AMAN DEEP

India's population is definitely larger than China, but the numbers for both of them are less than 1.4 billion. India has not had a census since 2011, and everyone believes that China quoted larger numbers in 2020 than in reality.

印度的人口肯定比中国多，但两国的人口都不到14亿。印度自2011年以来就没有进行过人口普查，所有人都认为中国在2020年的数据比实际数字要大。

Erik Di

Large young population is meaningless when it comes to ChatGPT.

有了ChatGPT，庞大的年轻人口是没有意义的。

calvingao1987

I believe the two countries can benefit from each other.

我相信两国可以相互受益。

KarthikSoun

Falling population in China is NOT a bad thing. 1 generation has worked and built everything for the next. It doesn't matter if economy shrinks a bit it will only mean better standard of living in future.

中国人口减少并不是坏事。一代为下一代工作和建造一切。经济萎缩一点也没关系，这只意味着未来生活水平的提高。

Sandesh Rawat

I think INDIA is more dependable when it comes to show faith but what INDIA need is proper skill upgradation which only comes when FDI will continue to pour from developed nations again in our  growth western developed nation will play a major role so growth with hand in hand will be great to go

我认为，在展示信心方面，印度更可靠，但印度需要的是适当的技能升级，只有当外国直接投资继续从发达国家涌入，促进我们的经济增长时，西方发达国家才会继续发挥重要作用，因此携手增长将是最好的

Mountain climber

the decrease in population in China is negligible, which can easily covered with Technology..There are many companies which are automatic, drones, robots, AI and some other things can fill this gap easily..China has well developed infrastructure, technological advanced, manufacturing hub etc, so well ahead of India in all fields.

在中国人口的减少可以忽略不计，可以轻松用技术弥补。有无人机、机器人、人工智能和其他一些东西可以轻易地填补这个空白。中国有好的基础设施，技术先进，制造中心等，各领域遥遥领先印度。

Vasuki Nagabhushan

India should rise by its strength, not China's weakness.

印度应该靠自己的实力崛起，而不是靠中国的弱点。

V K Gupta

Falling and aging populations are the side effects of increasing prosperity. China is a perfect example. When society becomes more aspirational more female workers enter the workforce with the resultant reluctance to have large families.

人口下降和老龄化，是经济日益繁荣的副作用。中国就是一个很好的例子。当社会变得更有抱负时，越来越多的女性进入劳动力市场，结果不愿生孩子。

NatureShortReels

When Chinas current work force when they retire, there will be smaller number of ppl who will have to take care of this larger aging population. Which could will affect the economy growth. For India, even though it got younger population I dunno how much quality education will be achieved by this young ppl. If you don’t have skills set you become a burden for your economy. But still Indias problem is not that complicated than Chinas problem. This less population also means China in the future will have trouble managing a big geographic area.

当中国现有的劳动力退休时，能照顾这个庞大的老龄化人口的人更少了。这可能会影响经济增长。

对印度来说，尽管人口更年轻，但我不知道这些年轻人能获得多少优质教育。

如果你没有技能，你就会成为经济的负担。

但是印度的问题并不比中国的问题复杂。

人口减少也意味着中国在未来将难以管理一个广阔的地理区域。

Vijay Mujumdar

China experts hem & haw about population growth declining in that country. They make dire predications about difficulties China will face due to an aging population. All this is true but a lesser evil than a rapidly growing population as in India. Gallo population of India is an environmental threat & a threat to the world order. It’s landmass, water resources, food growing capacity can’t cope with 1.4 billion people. Chinese leaders who enforced one child policy were wise, they defused population bomb in time. Unfortunately,strutting Indian politicians have no qualms about the misery burgeoning population brings to this country. At this level there is no demographic dividend, only certain demographic destruction.

中国专家对国家人口增长下降的说法支支吾吾。他们对中国由于人口老龄化将面临的困难做出了可怕的预测。

所有这些都是事实，但与印度快速增长的人口相比，这不是什么坏事。

印度飞速增长的人口是对环境和世界秩序的威胁。

它的陆地面积、水资源、粮食生产能力都无法养活14亿人口。

不幸的是，昂首阔步的印度政客们对人口迅速增长给这个国家带来的痛苦毫无顾忌。在这个水平上，没有人口红利，只会带来破坏。

Aman

Population is double edged sword

人口是一把双刃剑

Lord Lee

Large population is not a blessing, it’s a curse. Especially now we are entering the AI age, where jobs will be hard to come by. China’s birth rate is lower than that of almost all countries and China’s population is declining at the right time. I do wish the Indians have more prosperous lives.

人口多不是福，而是祸。特别是现在我们正在进入人工智能时代，工作机会很难找到。中国的出生率比几乎所有国家都要低，中国的人口在适当的时候下降。我真心希望印度人的生活更加繁荣。

Fact Analyser

Quality matters not the quantity

关键是质量而不是数量

继续阅读：中国人口   印度人口   老龄化   出生率

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