Quora：印度要如何在经济上超过中国

How can India surpass China economically?

印度要如何在经济上超过中国？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Sage

India has a large and growing population, a well-educated workforce, and a rapidly expanding middle class. In order to surpass China economically, India will need to continue to focus on building its infrastructure, promoting foreign investment, and encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Additionally, India will need to address issues such as corruption and bureaucratic red tape, which can make it difficult for businesses to operate in the country. It will also need to invest in education and training programs to ensure that its workforce has the skills needed to compete in a global economy. Additionally, India may also want to invest in renewable energy and other sustainable industries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Ultimately, achieving economic growth will require a combination of government policies, private sector investment, and societal changes.

印度拥有庞大且不断增长的人口，受过良好教育的劳动力，以及迅速壮大的中产阶级。

要在经济上超越中国，印度需要继续集中精力建设基础设施，促进外国投资，鼓励创新和创业。

此外，印度还需要解决腐败和官僚主义等问题，这些问题会降低企业的营商便利度。

印度还必须投资教育和培训，帮助劳动力拥有在全球经济中竞争所需的技能。

此外，印度可能还可以投资可再生能源和其他可持续产业，减少对化石燃料的依赖。

最终，实现经济增长需要政府政策、对私营企业的投资和社会改革等组合拳。

Rajesh Tiwary

Is it true that India can never beat China in terms of economy?

Let's first talk about Japan.

印度在经济上永远无法超越中国，是真的吗？

我们可以先从日本谈起。

It's 1980s and Japan is growing like a mad boy. At 10–15% per annum. Japan is leading manufacturer of cars , electronics, machine hardwares and many other stuff.

One of the highest per capita GDP and income. Overqualified, highly skilled people everywhere you go. You got to be a millionaire to buy an okayish flat in Tokyo. Money is literally flowing in the streets(Okay I made this one up…)

20世纪80年代日本的发展势头非常迅猛，每年增长10-15%。日本是汽车、电子产品、机械硬件和其他众多产品的领先制造国。

日本成了人均GDP和人均收入最高的国家之一。你所到之处，看到的都是资历过高、技术高超的人。你得成为百万富翁才能在东京买到一套不错的公寓。路上到处都是钱流(哈，这是我自己编的…)

$ 4.9 trillion economy which was only behind of USA’s $7 trillion economy. Almost every “Expert” predicted that Japan will overtake USA’s economy by 2010 or so…

But we all know that never really happened. So what went wrong?

As it turned out, almost Everything….. The young Japanese people preferred staying single than marrying and having children.

日本当时4.9万亿美元的经济规模仅次于美国的7万亿美元。几乎每个“专家”都预测日本经济将在2010年左右超过美国。

但我们都知道这个预测没能实现。那么问题出在哪里？

最后事实证明，日本几乎方方面面都出现了问题.....比起结婚生子，日本年轻人更喜欢单身。

About 30% Japanese people never marry. So the population started aging rapidly. The population even started declining. The problem with this is, in order to have a flourishing economy you need constant supply of young, innovative work force. And Japan ran out of just that..

So in 1990s, Japan entered a phase of GREAT STAGNATION. That means it showed almost zero growth in last 3 decades!. It's economy is still $4.9 trillion.

大约30%的日本人一辈子都不结婚。所以日本人口开始迅速老龄化，人口规模开始下降。但为了维持繁荣的经济，需要有源源不断的年轻、创新的劳动力。而日本已经没有这个条件了。

因此从20世纪90年代开始，日本进入了停滞阶段。这意味着在过去30年里，日本几乎没有增长！经济规模依然是4.9万亿美元。

China which had 50 times smaller economy than Japan back in 1980s, ironically has 3 times larger economy compared to Japan today. All that in 4 decades.

The whole point is, as of now, China is indeed doing great in terms of economy as compared to India...

在20世纪80年代，日本的经济规模是中国的50倍，具有讽刺意味的是，今天中国的经济规模已经达到日本的3倍了。如此巨变就发生在这40年内。

到目前为止，与印度相比，中国在经济方面的表现确实十分出色…

By far, China’s economy stands anywhere around 15 trillion dollars as compared to 2.7 trillion dollar Indian Economy.

China has foreign reserves of 5 times as India.

China has great infrastructure and it has literally become powerhouse of manufacturing and exports.

It's way above India in anything related economy as of now.

到目前为止，中国经济规模约为18万亿美元，而印度经济规模仅为2.7万亿美元。

中国的外汇储备是印度的5倍。

中国拥有强大的基础设施，已经成为制造业和出口大国。

到目前为止，在所有经济领域，中国都远超印度。

But the question is for how long?

With controversial one child policy, even China’s population is aging rapidly, talent pool is shrinking too, so what happened to Japan might very well happen to China.

但问题是，中国能持续高速发展多长时间呢？

备受争议的独生子女政策使得中国的人口也在迅速老龄化，人才资源不断萎缩，所以中国可能也会重蹈日本的覆辙。

Another thing is, much of China’s progress is based upon it's policy of disrespecting Intellectual property rights and avoiding free trade and thereby curtailing competition. Most of countries including USA have sensed that and as a result now they are demanding China to shed off its trade protectionism.

还有一点，中国的进步在很大程度上是建立在损害知识产权和自由贸易，从而减少竞争的政策基础上的。包括美国在内的大多数国家都意识到了这一点，因此他们现在开始要求中国放弃贸易保护政策。

I laugh gleefully when my fellow Indians say “India can never beat China even in dreams”. Economics is a Bitch…there was a time when Venezuela was developed and Norway was poor country, at world stage it doesn't take a lot of time to go from rag to riches and other way around.

At present India’s potential growth is hugely suppressed by corruption, excessive government control, socialist leaning policies, hostile neighbours and awful education system.. But things are changing rapidly.

当我的印度同胞说“印度即使做梦也拼不过中国”时，我笑了。曾几何时，委内瑞拉十分发达，而挪威还是个一穷二白的国家，在世界舞台上，从穷变富并不需要等候太长时间。

目前，印度的潜在增长被腐败、过度的政府控制、社会主义倾向的政策、敌对的邻国和糟糕的教育体系严重压制了。但这种情况正在迅速变化。

It's not impossible that India becomes 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the world in the next two decades.

Only time will tell whether India leaves China behind or not, Only thing that I can say that it's not impossible.

未来20年，印度完全有可能成为世界第三或第二大经济体。

只有时间才能证明印度会不会把中国甩在身后。我唯一能说的就是：一切皆有可能。

Bill Chen

Do something about the rupee's slide which has been ongoing for 7 decades, a 2,100 percent devaluation.

In the 21st century, the yuan has more than doubled against the rupee.

Arrest the slide and reverse it, instead of hanging on to explanations which Gandhi himself would have made. India is three generations past the great man, and it is only right that a forward looking society expect progress.

赶紧对已经持续了70年的卢比贬值做点什么吧，已经贬值2100%了。

21世纪人民币对卢比已经升值了一倍多。

我们必须终结这种下滑趋势并扭转颓势，不要继续死死抓住甘地的解释不放。这位伟人已经过去三代了，追求进步、向前看才是正确的选择。

Mohit

How can India beat China's economy?

Quite difficult for India, at least in the foreseeable future.

One major reason I would like to point out is that India is a import dependent country whereas China is export oriented.

China has skilled work force India don’t.

印度如何才能超越中国经济？

对印度来说，至少在可预见的未来都相当困难。

一个主要原因在于，印度是一个依赖进口的国家，而中国是以出口为导向的国家。

中国有熟练的劳动力，而印度没有。

Single party rule makes China adopt policies clearly and precisely, India has multiparty rule faces the brunt in transition

China has infrastructure, India lacks.

India talks, China does.

These are few things which will keep India behind China in the coming days also. India really needs to work hard.

中国的制度使得政策制定清晰而精准，而印度的多党制遇到政府换届就问题频发。

中国有基础设施，而印度缺乏。

印度空谈，中国实干。

在未来的日子里，这些事情还会继续让印度落后于中国。印度真的必须努力追赶了。

Anchal Tamrakar

How can India defeat China in the economic field?

Every country need sacrifice to build it otherwise it's a piece of land..

Remember diamonds are created under pressure so hold on, it be your time to shine soon..

印度如何才能在经济领域击败中国？

建设每个国家都需要做出牺牲，否则就只是一块土地而已。

记住，是压力锻造出了钻石，所以坚持住，很快就轮到你发光了。

To become world power all Indians should sacrifice own freedom. Each one should work as a slave of India. To make India a truly free contry in which all its needs are produced. There should be no dependency on other countries. Hard work is required to make India’s own design and development using all available natural resources. And so on…

为了成为世界强国，所有印度人都应该牺牲自己的自由。每个人都应该像奴隶一样努力工作。让印度成为一个真正自由的国家，这样我们就能生产出所有需求的商品。我们不该继续依赖其他国家。只有埋头苦干，才能利用所有可用的自然资源实现自主设计和开发。

Empires like Mauryans and Guptas. Let me tell you something, those empires didn't come out of nothing, our ancestors had sacrificed their blood and sweat to give us something to feel proud about. But you Mr. Reader had no role in building those glorious days. What stands before you is your present. Past has faded away, future is yet to come, we only have present in our hands. After maybe a thousand years, when our descendants, would look back at us through the mirror of history pages, what would they think? Wouldn't they blame it on us that we kept India weak like we do on some of our kings? Wouldn't they detest us?

我要说的是，孔雀王朝和笈多王朝等帝国不是凭空出现的，我们的先辈们牺牲了他们的鲜血和汗水，换来了我们引以为傲的历史。但读者们，你们并没有参与过创造辉煌的日子。你面对的是你的现在。过去已逝，未来尚未来临，我们手中只有现在。也许一千年后，当我们的子孙后代，透过历史的镜子回望我们时，他们会如何做想？他们难道不会责怪我们让印度国力衰弱，就像我们指责历史上某些国王一样吗？他们难道不会记恨我们吗？

A century is nothing in grand scheme of history. Wouldn't our time period be just ignored like we do to medieval kingdoms? When our descendants would be learning this shameful chapter of Indian history, their Chinese and European counterparts would be learning about golden age of modern China and Europe. Wouldn't our descendants be ashamed of us while discussing about 20th–21st century with their Chinese and European friends and curse at us for being weak. Do you really want to see such a dystopian future?

一个世纪在漫长的历史长河中微不足道。难道我们现在所处的年代不会像中世纪王国一样被后人忽视吗？在我们的子孙后代学习印度历史上这一可耻篇章时，他们同期的中国人和欧洲人学习的是现代中国和欧洲的黄金时代。当我们的子孙后代和中国、欧洲的朋友讨论20 - 21世纪时，他们会不会为我们感到羞愧，并咒骂我们的软弱。你真的愿意看到这样一个反乌托邦的未来吗？

We are indeed not at same terms as Europeans or Chinese, but if we never try to improve ourselves and resign to our fate, this curse of being slaves will haunt our descendants for thousands of years…

我们确实和欧洲人、中国人不一样，但如果我们自己不努力提升自己，只听任命运摆布，这种为奴为婢的诅咒还将困扰我们的后代数千年……

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

India develops a miracle product that noone else can manufacture like a cure for HIV or a cure for Cancer or Diabetes, Renewable power generation which has global deman, or India discovers a huge source of Oil or nuclear Thorium - then perhaps in 50 years - India would overtake China

如果：印度研制出了一种别人无法制造的奇迹产品，比如能够治愈艾滋病、癌症或糖尿病的药物，有全球急需的可再生能源，发现了巨大的石油或核钍资源—那么也许50年后，印度能够超过中国。

Other than these two cases - India has lagged too far. They cannot surpass China in any other case of scenario, no matter what they do.

除了这两种情况发生，否则印度落后中国太多了，无论他们怎么挣扎也无法超越中国。

Vardhaman Sakhlecha

Can India Surpass China's economy by 2050?

No. Economic growth is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product. (GDP)

到2050年，印度经济能超过中国吗？

不能。经济增长通常以国内生产总值GDP来衡量。

There are varying forecast about India and China’s growth rate. So lets assume the best case scenario for India at 7% p.a. and an moderate growth scenario for China at 4%

Assuming India grows at 7% p.a. till 2050, its GDP would at best touch $23 Trillion. China, if it grows at 4% p.a., would be able to touch a GDP $43 Trillion by 2050.

人们对印度和中国的增长速度有不同的预测。所以，假设印度的最佳情况是每年增长7%，中国增长4%。

就算印度以每年7%的速度增长到2050年，其GDP最多可以达到23万亿美元。如果中国以每年4%的速度增长，到2050年GDP将达到43万亿美元。

So, no India will not surpass Chinese economy by 2050 unless something extraordinary takes place more than ordinary number of times in the next few decades.

China was able to take advantage of globalization when manufacturing shifted from west to the east but this advantage doesn’t remain with the rise of protectionism. India would have to work at finding alternate growth models.

所以，除非在未来几十年发生某些非同寻常的事件，否则到2050年印度经济不可能超过中国，。

当制造业从西方转移到东方时，中国能够充分利用全球化的优势，但这种优势已随着保护主义的兴起而消失了。印度不得不努力寻找其他的替代增长模式。