What is the potential of China-India economic and trade cooperation?

中国和印度在经济和贸易领域的合作前景如何？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Mia Brown

I think the cooperation between China and India on trade has a wide perspective and huge potential.

我认为中印经贸合作前景广阔，潜力巨大。

In the past 20 years, China and India have experienced rapid growth in economic development and bilateral trade. According to the China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC), trade between the two countries has increased from $ 2.9 billion in 2000 to $ 125.6 billion today, up 43.3% year-on-year. It is the first time that India-China trade crossed the $100-billion mark. In terms of outbound investment, India ranks 18th in the number of overseas enterprises established by China. Besides, the stock of Chinese investment in India exceeds $300 million. All of these numbers show that China-India cooperation has a solid foundation and great potential for future development.

20年来，中印两国的经济和双边贸易快速发展。根据中国海关总署的数据，两国之间的贸易额从2000年的29亿美元增长到今天的1256亿美元，同比增长了43.3%。这是中印贸易额首次突破1000亿美元大关。在对外投资方面，中国在境外设立的企业总数中印度排在第18位。此外，中国对印投资存量已超过3亿美元。这些都表明，中印合作有着坚实的基础和巨大的发展潜力。

Relatively, China leads in labor efficiency while India does well in capital efficiency. China is a manufacturing powerhouse from which India needs support. On the other hand, India is an IT hub. Therefore, strengthening economic and trade cooperation between the two countries will deepen cooperation in these fields and achieve a win-win in regional development

相对而言，中国的劳动效率领先于印度，而印度的资本效率优于中国。中国是制造业大国，印度需要来自中国的支持，而印度是IT中心，所以加强两国经贸合作，将深化两国在这些领域的合作，实现区域发展的共赢。

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays a key role in bilateral relations, through which China and India could tap their potential. Since 2013, China’s outward FDI flows to countries participating in BRI have been on the rise. The total volume in BRI countries has been estimated at around $20 billion in 2020. Joining BRI will help India further increase the degree of openness, connect two major markets, and drive economic development.

“一带一路”在中印关系中发挥着关键作用，可以激发两国的潜力。自2013年以来，中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的对外直接投资持续增长。截止2020年，中国在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资总额预计已达到200亿美元左右。加入“一带一路”有助于印度进一步提高开放程度，连接两大市场，带动经济发展。

However, under the incitement of anti-China forces in India, many people believe that China wants to curb India’s development, thus listing China as the biggest threat to India. Over time, there have been incidents of suppression of Chinese companies by the Indian authorities. In addition, India has been dealing with China about the trade deficit issue and taking measures to restrict imports from China. All these limitations make the huge potential far from being fully explored. India needs to get rid of the zero-sum game trap, jump out of the mindset that surplus is always better than deficit, and view bilateral trade from the perspective of its own consumers and economic development.

但是在印度反华势力的煽动下，很多人认为中国想要遏制印度的发展，将中国列为印度最大的威胁。长期以来，印度当局打压中国企业的事件时有发生。此外，印度一直和中国存在贸易逆差问题，印度采取不少措施限制从中国进口商品。这些限制手段使得巨大的发展潜力远未实现充分挖掘。印度需要摆脱零和游戏的陷阱，跳出顺差一定好于逆差的思维模式，要从本国消费者和经济发展的角度看待双边贸易。

China and India are partners rather than rivals. They should achieve mutual success rather than internal conflict, take a long-term view of the bilateral relationship, view each other’s development with a win-win mindset, and participate in multilateral cooperation. I believe that with the relationship gradually back on track bilateral trade will make greater breakthroughs.

中印是合作伙伴，不是竞争对手。两国要共赢，不要内讧，要以长远的眼光看待两国关系，以共赢的眼光看待彼此发展，积极参与多边合作。我相信，随着两国关系逐步步入正轨，两国贸易将取得更大突破。

Philip Yap

Can India compete with China in global trade?

India will never be able to compete with China in trade for a long time to come, perhaps next few decades. India just does not have the development plan to achieve it, neither it has the political system and will to achieve it.

在全球贸易中，印度能和中国竞争吗？

在未来很长一段时间里，印度都无法在贸易上与中国竞争，也许未来几十年都是如此。印度没有制订过实现这一目标的发展计划，也没有实现这一目标的政治制度和意愿。

It may get some boost from the politically motivated shift in supply chains but that will not be sufficient to boost India into a trade superpower like China. India is just too far away from China, totally different categories in terms of efficiency, productivity, innovation, stability, and reliability.

China’s current trade volume is 5 times that of India and still growing. China's total trade in 2020 is more than USD 4.3 trillion compare with India's USD 844 billion.

出于政治动机的供应链转移可能会给印度带来一些提振，但仅凭这一点无法让印度成长为中国那样的贸易大国。印度跟中国的差距实在太大了，在效率、生产力、创新、稳定性和可靠性方面都无法同日而语。

中国目前的贸易额是印度的5倍，而且还在增长。2020年，中国的贸易总额超过4.3万亿美元，而印度为8440亿美元。

India should target to surpass the Africa continent instead of competing with China, an impossible dream, when China rebalance its economy which is currently in active progress, most China labour-intensive factories will be relocated to Africa, SEA and Latin America.

印度应该以超越非洲大陆为目标，不要肖想和中国竞争，这完全是白日梦。中国会调整目前发展势头良好的经济，将大多数劳动密集型工厂迁往非洲、东南亚和拉丁美洲。

Sylvain Saurel

Could China and India become partners and friends instead of rivals or enemies?

India and China are not meant to be friends, but rather enemies.

中印能否成为伙伴和朋友，而非对手和敌人?

印度和中国不是朋友，而是敌人。

However, the two countries may have common interests at times, which leads them to enter into partnerships and forget their detestation.

But the two countries are still suspicious of each other.

India is playing a double game anyway, being at the same time close to America via the Quad, a kind of Indo-Pacific NATO that brings together Japan, America, Australia, and India. The aim here is to better fight against China's expansionist ambitions and its voracious appetite in the region.

但两国有时候可能也有共同的利益，让两国建立伙伴关系，暂时搁置彼此的矛盾。

但两国仍然相互怀疑。

印度是两面派，同时还通过“四方集团”亲近美国，这是一个把日本、美国、澳大利亚和印度聚集在一起的印太北约。这样做的目的是为了更好地对抗中国的扩张野心及其在该地区的贪婪欲望。

India is also a partner of China via the BRICS and allows itself to buy Russian oil at reduced prices despite the war in Ukraine and the fact that America is pressing the country to take a stand against Putin and his odious war.

India prioritizes its interests above all else, as do all countries in general, but it is astonishing that it is tolerated to play both sides at the same time.

通过“金砖五国”，印度同时还是中国的合作伙伴，可以用低价购买俄罗斯石油，尽管乌克兰战争和美国正在迫使印度选定立场反对普京。

和所有国家一样，印度把自己的利益放在第一位，但令人惊讶的是，印度这样的两面派行为居然能被容忍。

The reality is that with China becoming less of a dream destination in Asia for Western companies, India will become an increasingly essential partner in the future.

Everyone needs India more than ever in the two camps that will oppose each other in the future.

现实情况是，中国已不再是西方企业在亚洲的理想目的地，印度未来会成为越来越重要的合作伙伴。

在未来两个相互对立的阵营中，每个国家都比以往任何时候都更加需要印度。

Juby Mathew

Why can't India and China be good friends?

US and Cuba writing off their 5 decade old enmity

Israel And Palestines trying to reach to a settlement

And what India and China doing with each other….

为什么印度和中国不能成为好朋友？

美国和古巴结束了50年的敌对关系

以色列和巴勒斯坦尝试和解

那么印度和中国在做什么呢....

Regrettably, even as the current policy-making environment stand significantly transformed looking at the India-China relationship in a much broader context, the public perception of China continues to be fed with the post-1962 mistrust of China. This mistrust was systematically worked by successive governments into the official and non-official discourse on China and almost became a matter of policy through the 1970s to early 1990s.

遗憾的是，尽管当前的政策环境对印中关系的看法发生了重大变化，但公众对中国仍然延续了1962年之后对中国的不信任。历届印度政府将这种不信任强加在和中国有关的官方和非官方言论中，这几乎成为20世纪70年代至90年代初的一种政策问题。

The Chinese economic growth and the cornering of certain markets by Chinese goods in India had contributed to this mistrust.

Add to this the relevant concerns about the increasing Chinese military modernisation; all these factors together have prevented any critical view of the burgeoning India-China relationship.

中国经济的增长和中国商品在印度某些市场的垄断催生了这种不信任。

除此之外，印度还对中国军事的持续现代化十分担忧；所有这些因素加在一起，阻挠了印中关系的进展。

But

“HOPE" is the fuel on which this world runs. Isn't it?

但是

“希望”是这个世界运转的动力。不是吗？

Jiangjunling

Trade in goods between China and India is brisk,

Despite poor relations between China and India in recent years, bilateral trade in goods has broken records.

But investment and infrastructure cooperation between China and India has largely stalled,

India is not willing to cooperate with China,

中印之间的商品贸易蓬勃发展，

尽管近年来中印关系不佳，但双边商品贸易额却打破了纪录。

不过中印之间的投资和基础设施合作已基本停滞，

印度不愿意和中国合作，

It is very risky for China to invest in India and no one wants to invest in India.

It makes no sense to talk about the potential between China and India,

Potential is worthless if it cannot be translated into reality.

I personally do not see the future of China-India relations.

中国在印度投资的风险很大，所以没有人愿意在印度投资。

谈论中国和印度之间的潜力毫无意义，

如果潜力无法转化为现实，那么潜力就只是空中楼阁。

我个人并不看好中印关系的未来。

Lin ieyi

How are India-China relations?

I think a historic turning point has occurred in Apr 2018.

In a space of less than a month, China made gains on two major geopolitical fronts : on the Eastern Front, the Korean brinkmanship has dissolved to reconciliation, and on the Western Front, India had decided to finally tie up with China.

印中关系如何？

我认为印中关系的历史性转折点发生在2018年4月。

在不到一个月的时间里，中国在两个关键的地缘政治战线上取得了进展：在东线上，朝鲜的边缘政策已经达成和解，在西线上，印度最终决定与中国结盟。

On the Eastern Front, China had been unable to advance further gains after fighting the United States to a standstill in the Korean War, due to limited economic and military power back then. If not for the Korean War, China would have unified Taiwan with the mainland in the 1950s.

On the Western Front, India and China has been traditionally good neighbors since ancient times , but the deliberate demarcation by the British along strategic borders before they withdrew in 1949 left behind a timebomb, which caused multiple flare ups along the Sino-Indian borders.

在东线上，因为当时有限的经济和军事实力，中国在朝鲜战争中和美军陷入胶着后，一直无法取得进一步的进展。如果不是朝鲜战争，中国大陆在20世纪50年代就能收回台湾了。

在西线上，印度和中国自古以来就一直是友邦之国，但英国在1949年撤军前故意划定战略边界，埋下了一颗定时炸弹，导致中印边界多次爆发冲突。

China has been develo and bidding her time to push back US influence for the longest time from both fronts, while India knew that the US has always wanted India to front geopolitical confrontation with China, which is not in India's long-term interest.

Both their times have come and they seize upon it.

中国一直在发展，争取时间在这两条战线上削弱美国的影响力，而印度知道美国一直希望印度和中国维持地缘政治对抗，但这不符合印度的长期利益。

他们的时代降临了，他们都抓住了这个机会。

CaiLei

Of course, China and India can cooperate and win-win. The elites of the two countries have more exchanges and cooperation to make the cake in Asia bigger.

中国和印度当然可以携手合作，实现共赢。两国精英的交流和合作越来越频繁，共同把亚洲这块蛋糕做大。

Krishnamurthi Menon

Swam the world and owning over 50% of its trade and economy. Why do you think the west is in fear and amking up all these stories of doom against China and India?

征服世界，占据世界50%以上的贸易和经济规模。你想想看，西方国家为什么会恐慌，编排了这么多针对中国和印度的不实言论？

继续阅读：中国经济   印度经济   贸易

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