Quora：西方的霸权终结了吗

Is the West domination over?

西方的霸权终结了吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Asim Qureshi

Is it the end of US domination of the world?

We are living in interesting times, the shift away from the US dollar has suddenly gone into overdrive and US global influence feels significantly weaker today than it was even a few weeks ago.

美国全球霸主地位走向终结了吗？

我们生活在一个有趣的时代，全球抛弃美元的趋势突然加速，今天美国的全球影响力甚至比几周前都明显减弱了。

BTW, whenever I say something like "we live in interesting times", it reminds me of the Russell Crowe film Master & Commander, a naval film set in the early 19th Century, where Crowe's character, Jack Aubrey, says, after seeing a model of a revolutionary ship, "That's the future, what a fascinating modern age we live in", because of course, whatever age you live in, it's modern and fascinating.

顺便说一句，每当我说“我们生活在一个有趣的时代”这句话，我都会想起罗素·克劳的电影《大师与指挥官》，一部以19世纪初为背景的海军电影，克劳的角色杰克·奥布里在看到一艘新船的模型后说，“这就是未来，我们生活在一个多么迷人的摩登时代”，因为当然了，无论你生活在哪个时代，它都是摩登而迷人的。

Anyway, back to our interesting times…

In recent weeks, Asean, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members - the latter which has 40% of the world's population and Saudi will now join - have been pushing to settle trade and payments with each others' currencies, putting to an end the era of the US dollar being the world’s currency.

不管怎样，说回到我们这个有趣的时代……

最近几周，东盟、金砖国家和上海合作组织成员国——上海合作组织拥有世界40%的人口，沙特近期也将加入——一直在推动用成员国的货币来结算贸易和付款，逐步终结美元作为全球货币的时代。

The way the Saudis have quickly made peace with Iran, strengthened ties with China and Russia, and then slashed oil production despite the US ‘requesting’ otherwise, has been just incredible. Basically, the Saudis, a longtime US puppet, have just stuck up the middle finger to their masters and jumped ship.

沙特火速与伊朗恢复和平，加强与中国和俄罗斯的关系并不顾美国的“要求”大幅削减石油产量，令人难以置信。沙特可以说是美国一个长期的傀儡，刚刚却向主子竖起中指，弃他而去了。

We've all lived all of our lives in a unipolar world. Many of us expected the status quo for our lifetimes and for China and India’s growth to fizzle out. But in the last few weeks, it's become clear that the unipolar era has come to an end, with the US's old adversary, Russia, being the chief instigator of it all.

我们过去一直生活在单极世界里。我们中有很多人都认为这辈子世界都会一直如此，中国和印度的经济增长将以失败而告终。但在过去几周，很明显，单极时代已经结束，美国的老对手俄罗斯是世界新秩序的主要发起者。

We have just witnessed the ending of the American Century. We are, very suddenly, no longer living in a unipolar world, and it feels surreal because for decades we've talked about, and are still talking about, it possibly happening.

We are indeed living in interesting times.

我们刚刚见证了美国世纪的结束。突然之间我们不再生活在一个单极世界里，这让人感觉十分超现实，因为几十年来我们一直在谈论，而且还正谈论着这可能会发生。

我们确实生活在一个有趣的时代。

Lance Chambers

Will the Western thoughts dominate the world fully in the next 50 years?

I don’t believe so.

I say that because the Chinese systems has seem China over the last 50 years move from a poor, bankrupt, ineffectual, struggling, starving nation into the No 2 position in the worlds economy. Also, it is expected that they will move into the No 1 position within a decade or two.

未来50年，西方思想还能主宰世界吗？

我不这么认为。

我之所以怀疑这一点，是因为我看到中国的体制在过去50年里让中国从一个贫困无能、步履维艰、食不果腹的国家一跃成了世界第二大经济体。他们还有望在未来10年或20年内夺下第一的位置。

China has proven that it’s benign system of central control is far more effective and efficient than how we have been deploying de ocracy. Democracy ensures that all players have a say and that debates go on and on and on and on, etc., etc. Projects that should take a year or two to finalise take decades at times. In China the central get all the data they can lay their hands on, review the information, come to a consensus, and within a month the project is completed or is well on the way to completion to the benefit of their citizens and the country as a whole.

中国已经证明其高效有序的中央管理体系比我们的政体要高能得多。有些制度让所有参与者都拥有发言权，结果大家争论不休。本应一两年时间内就能够完成的项目有时需要拖上几十年。而中国收集他们能得到的所有数据进行审查，达成共识，一个月内就能完成或基本完成项目，他们的公民和整个国家因此受益匪浅。

Given the, to me, very obvious superiority of the Chinese system I expect Eastern ways of thinking may, either, dominate or be very close to dominating but with a strong Western flavour in the West.

对我来说，中国的体制具有非常明显的优越性，我认为东方的思维方式可能会主导世界或具有深刻影响力，但在西方国家会入乡随俗。

J. Stopl

How long will Western world dominance last?

It already ended. These things usually ain’t some kind of one big bang moment. It is a slow proces if relative decline. We live in a very very interesting times, because the major power shifts are happening live every year now. And it is clearly heading east. Think about it. In year 1900, about 65% of the world GDP was just European states (including Russia, which in broad terms can still be include in western world in its most inclusive form) and USA. 65% !!!

西方世界的霸主地位将持续多久?

已经结束了。这些事情通常不会是突然一下的事。这种衰败是一个缓慢的过程。我们生活在一个非常有趣的时代，每年都能见证权力的更迭。很明显，现在局势正向着东方倾斜。想想看。1900年，大约65%的世界GDP是由欧洲国家(包括俄罗斯)和美国创造的。65%呐！

But those time are long gone. USA are still the most important, richest and most powerful country in the world and I believe, that it will stay that way for quite some time in the future, but the Western world as a whole is not really dominant anymore. Europe, the second “leg” of the West after USA is really in a defensive and its in relative economic, demographic, military and political decline. Even the cultural pull of the West isn’t that dominant.

Asian share of world economy is rising and its not gonna stop any time soon. We are truly living in a multipolar world. But it is important to note, that Asia is not a unified entity and there is no The East to put against The West. It is just solo Asian countries, mostly China.

但那个时代早已一去不复返了。美国仍然是世界上最重要、最富有和最强大的国家，我相信，美国还将在未来相当长一段时间内保持这种地位，但西方各国作为一个整体不再真正占据主导地位了。欧洲是继美国之后西方的第二条“腿”，目前已转为守势，其经济、人口、军事和政治都相对退步了，连西方的文化吸引力也不再占主流地位了。

而亚洲在世界经济中的比重正在上升，这个势头短期内不会停止。我们确实生活在一个多极世界。但值得注意的是，亚洲并不是一个统一的实体，也没有可以对抗西方的“东方”。只有个别亚洲国家，主要是中国，才有这个实力。

Nathan James

Do you believe the United States and the West will continue to be the dominant world hegemony in 100 years?

Originally Answered: Do you believe the United States and the West will continue to be the dominant world hegemon in 100 years?

You made me choke on my Cheerios. Shame on you.

Western Anglo-Saxon dominance in the world is waning. It has been waning for decades.

Asia is on the rise. And what a magnificent rise it is!

你认为美国和西方在100年后还会是世界霸主吗？

你这个问题让我被脆谷乐噎住了。你真无耻啊。

西方盎格鲁-撒克逊人的世界霸主地位正在减弱。几十年来，它一直在走下坡路。

而亚洲一路崛起。他们的崛起势头真叫人啧啧称奇。

By mid-century, China will be the dominant world power. She and Russia and USA will probably comprise a multipolar, multilateral world order.

In fact, before the end of this decade, China will surpass America as the world’s largest economy by nominal GDP. (She already surpassed America by PPP in 2013.)

And chew on this for a while: USA faces numerous internal problems (economic/financial, political, social) which cause the country to rot from the inside out.

到本世纪中叶，中国将成为世界第一大国。她会和俄罗斯、美国组建一个多极、多边的世界秩序。

事实上，在这个十年结束之前，中国将超过美国成为全球名义GDP最大的经济体。(2013年中国的购买力平价已经超过了美国。)

仔细想想吧：美国现在正面临着许多内部问题(经济/金融、政治、社会)，导致这个国家从内到外都朽败不堪。

a staggering $30 trillion national debt caused by endless money printing

extreme economic inequality — the bottom 50% of Americans have seen their average income steadily decline for half a century

rampant homelessness and a housing crisis

health care crisis for the uninsured and underinsured

crumbling national infrastructure

deep political division — think Donald Trump and the Capitol Hill riots

systemic racism — BLM and “I can’t breathe”

rampant gun violence

mass incarceration — the highest number and the highest rate in the world

opioid epidemic

etc.

疯狂印钞，累积了惊人的30万亿美元国债规模

极端的经济不平等——半个世纪以来，50%的底层美国人的平均收入一直持续下降

无家可归者随处可见，住房危机严峻

未投保及投保不足者面临医疗保障危机

破旧不堪的国家基础设施

严重的政治分歧——唐纳德•特朗普和国会山骚乱还在眼前

系统性的种族主义——黑人的命也是命、我无法呼吸

枪支暴力猖獗

监狱人满为患——在押犯人全球最多，犯罪率全球最高

毒品泛滥。

等等。

Tay David

In due time. The west has created too many conflicts that turn the event into war. Only in war, the west can remain their dominant. And war is the only business for western economy, just look at the billion dollars industry just by selling weapons. No war, no weapon to sell and the down hill of western economy.

In fact, may human are just had enough of western created war. It only gives pain and suffering. Destroy nation infrastructures, cause misplacement of human, country’s economy.

终于。西方在全世界掀起了太多冲突，把摩擦事件升级成了战争。只有通过战争，西方国家才能保持霸主地位。战争是西方经济的唯一解药，看看光靠卖武器就能赚上几十亿美元的军火产业就知道了。没有战争，没有军火销售，西方经济就会下滑。

事实上，人类已经受够了西方挑起的战争。战争只会给人类带来痛苦和折磨。破坏国家基础设施，造成人口和国家经济的错位。

With POTUS Biden on the steering wheels, I feel our World is not safe. Can never understand why US love war so much. I believe exporting non military is a better way to boost the country’s economy. Or maybe, War is the only thing that US knows how to boost its economy.

And (sorry Americans), I just hope the west will fall on their face as soon as possible to stop all these created war.

现在拜登总统掌权，我觉得世界并不安全。我真的无法理解为什么美国这么好战。我相信出口非军事产品采是发展国家经济的正道。或许，战争是美国知道的提振经济的唯一方法。

另外，抱歉了美国的亲们，我只希望西方国家尽快倒下，别再继续人为挑起战争了。

Gwydion Madawc Williams

Will the West lose its position of dominance in the twenty-first century?

Definitely. China’s rise, India’s rise and Russia’s recovery under Putin all tilt the world balance.

西方会在21世纪失去霸主地位吗？

这是肯定的。中国的崛起、印度的崛起以及普京领导下的俄罗斯的复苏，都改变了世界的平衡。

The West has successfully persuaded Brazil to shoot itself in both feet on the pretext of anti-corruption, but this might not last. Also trying the same game in South Africa. Both countries do have serious problems with corruption, but playing the Western game would only produce governments every bit as corrupt but also subordinate to Western interests.

西方已经成功地说服巴西以反腐败为借口搬起石头砸了自己的脚，但这种招数不可能长期有用。他们在南非也在上演这样的戏码。这两个国家都有严重的腐败问题，但照搬西方的那一套只会滋生同样腐败的政府，而且还会对西方言听计从。

Arden Tom McClure

Far from it, just different. The US has the greatest concentration of agriculture, raw materials, self sufficiency in fuel, and security from two ocean moats. And China just trash canned its world power plans with Ukraine invasion. China realized that she is far more vulnerable to sanctions than Russia, and Russia could completely disappear off the map or divide into a series of smaller, weaker countries ruled by warlords.

截然相反。美国拥有最集中的农业生产，有原材料，燃料自给自足，还拥有两个大洋的保护。中国因为乌克兰战争，紧急叫停了自己的世界强国计划。中国意识到，自己比俄罗斯更容易受到制裁的伤害，俄罗斯可能会完全从地图上消失，或者分裂成无数由军阀统治的小国、弱国。

Richard DeLotto

OION:

The US is wandering off. We were mostly interested in fighting WW3 in Europe, Asia, Africa… anywhere else but at home. This is no longer much of an issue, and we are reverting to our historic norm of… not so much isolationism and indifferentism. If Putin hadn’t invaded we would have been out of NATO in 8 years.

Europe will be entering a resource-driven neo-imperialist phase any day now. Last month maybe, in fact. Watch for a huge arms-build-up— “hightech stuff” that doesn’t need draftees.

Expect some sort of an inward-facing, mercantilist Anglosphere.

我的看法：

美国现在很迷茫，失去了方向。我们最感兴趣的是在欧洲、亚洲、非洲等非美国领土挑起第三次世界大战。我们正在回归我们的历史常态，不再那么孤立主义或冷漠主义。如果普京没有出兵，我们可能在8年内就退出北约了。

欧洲随时都可能步入由资源驱动的新帝国主义阶段。事实上，可能上个月已经是了吧。注意大规模的军备建设——不需要征兵的“高科技玩意儿”。

我很期待看到某种面向国内的重商主义盎格鲁圈。