Explained: India’s record $770 billion exports & how realistic is the $2 trillion dream

印度的出口额将达到创纪录的7700亿美元，2万亿美元目标不是梦？

India’s exports are expected to hit a record high of $770.2 billion in the financial year 2022-23. The record number comes at a time when the global economy is witnessing a slowdown. India has also set a target of $2 trillion exports by 2030. So, how strong is the India export story and how realistic is this dream of $2 trillion? We look to understand this in the video below.

印度的出口额预计将在2022-2023财政年度达到创纪录的7702亿美元。这一创纪录的数据出现之际，全球经济正在放缓。印度还设定了到2030年出口额达到2万亿美元的目标。印度的出口故事有多强劲？这个2万亿美元的梦想有多现实？

In this week’s episode of TOI Business Bytes, Madan Sabnavis, the Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda traces the journey of India’s exports and breaks down the growth in merchandise exports versus services exports. Interestingly, while exports will see a record number, merchandise exports have actually been contracting in the last few months.

在本周的《印度时报商业字节》节目中，巴罗达银行首席经济学家Madan Sabnavis追溯了印度的出口历程，并分析了商品出口与服务出口的增长。有趣的是，虽然出口将达到创纪录的数字，但商品出口实际上在过去几个月一直在萎缩。

According to Sabnavis, India has an advantage when it comes to services exports, but the government should continue to focus on merchandise exports. “We need to qualify that when we are talking of exports of goods and services, we've seen a differential performance of goods from services. While services is something which has definitely been increasing at a very steady rate, it's not always been so for goods. And that is where I think there could be concerns going ahead,” he tells TOI.

根据Sabnavis的说法，印度在服务出口方面具有优势，但政府应继续关注商品出口。他告诉印度时报：“当我们谈到商品和服务出口时，需要说明，我们看到商品和服务的表现有所不同。虽然服务业确实一直在以非常稳定的速度增长，但商品出口并不总是如此。这就是我认为未来可能会担心的地方。”

“For merchandise exports, we need to keep plugging to make sure that we're able to bring about higher rates of growth. Because at the end of the day, I think the overall Indian economy has to grow based on manufacturing,” he said. “If I'm going to concentrate a lot on manufacturing, which is where jobs are also being created, the SMEs are involved, I think we need to be looking in terms of our export growth being sustainable,” he notes.

他说：“对于商品出口，我们需要继续努力，以确保我们能够带来更高的增长率。因为归根结底，我认为整个印度经济必须以制造业为基础发展。”他指出：“如果我要把重点放在制造业上，我认为我们需要关注我们的出口增长是否可持续，因为制造业也创造了就业机会，中小企业也参与其中。”

Sabnavis also explains why electronics exports have surpassed that of garments in the financial year 2022-23. He talks extensively about the role of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in propelling exports in various sectors and also explains what the next phase of this scheme should focus on.

Sabnavis还解释了为什么电子产品出口在2022-2023财政年度超过了服装出口。他还讨论了生产相关激励(PLI)计划在推动各个部门出口方面的作用，并解释了该计划下一阶段的重点。

印度时报读者的评论：

Bijay

This can be possible if the present government continues till that time. It's for the people to decide whether they want a stable govt. or a directionless hotchpotch govt at the center.

如果现在的印度政府能执政到那个时候（2030年），这个目标是有可能实现的。是要一个稳定的政府还是一个没有方向的大杂烩政府，这是由印度人民来决定的。

Alko

I wish India achieve the next target.

希望印度能实现下一个目标。

Indian

Previous regime worked upon corruption targets

前任政府致力于实现腐败目标

Sumil Jain

Which modi have exceeded by huge margins

莫迪超额完成目标

Rajeev Narayan

Great work being done by this government

现任政府做得很好

User Nair

Modiji is for development and making India the World Leader. Good people will definitely support him without sticking to any party. Jai Hind

莫迪支持发展，让印度成为世界领袖。善良的人一定会支持他，不依附于任何党派。印度必胜！

User

This in undoubtedly a very big achievement. Once we reduce our imports to atleast 70% of our exports, we can truly be a self sufficient nation economically. We have to reduce our dependency on oil as its is approx. $200 billion annually. India should now focus on building or r&d base.

这无疑是一个非常大的成就。一旦我们将进口减少到出口的70%，我们就能在经济上真正成为一个自给自足的国家。我们必须减少对石油的依赖，每年2000亿美元啊。印度现在应该大力建设研发基地。

Krishnamurthy Krishnamurthy

If Modi ji is allowed to continue as Prime Minister till 2030, certainly 2 trillion dollars as export target will not remain a mere dream.

如果让莫迪继续担任总理到2030年，2万亿美元的出口目标肯定不会仅仅是一个梦想。

Rajeev Kumar

This is only possibe during Nationalist BJP NDA............please vote for BJP NDA always for peace and unstoppable progress............

只有人民党执政才有可能实现，请投票给人民党。人民党总是追求和平，进步的脚步不可阻挡

User Nechiyil

all is well, this decade is for India

一切顺利，这十年是属于印度的

Niranjan

More than a decade is for India.

不止10年

Sundaram

If you really want that to be achieved vote for bjp. Thanks

如果你们真的想实现这一目标，就投票给人民党。谢谢

Rajagopalan S.V.

Unfortunately during Licence Raj, manufacturing was totally neglected. Manufacturing is the backbone of the economy and all economies like USA, Japan, China, Korea, Europe grew at the back of their manufacturing. Manufacturing provides jobs for the less educated, while Services provide jobs for the higher educated. Manufacturing needs good infrastructure and the current government is providing that at a faster pace than before.

不幸的是，在许可证制度下，制造业完全被忽视了。制造业是经济的支柱，美国、日本、中国、韩国、欧洲等所有经济体的增长都依赖于制造业。制造业为受教育程度较低的人提供工作，而服务业为受教育程度较高的人提供工作。制造业需要良好的基础设施，而现在的印度政府正在以比以往更快的速度修建这些基础设施。

Swapnil Rao

Extraordinary Progress in Bharat last 6 years, be it Infrastructure development, Economy, Business, Job creation, Education, Healthcare Internal Security , Defence & Exports. Great going Bharat. Keep it up

印度在过去6年取得了惊人的进步，无论是基础设施建设、经济、商业、创造就业、教育、医疗保健、内部安全、国防还是出口方面。干得好，印度，再接再厉！

Yashodhan Muzumdar

Mercandise exports are going down for the last 4 months and the trend may continue due to international recession.

商品出口在过去4个月里一直在下降，而且由于国际经济衰退，这种趋势可能会持续下去。

Pavan Gupta

Democracies have to grow first and then bring in the regulations. India brought in the regulations first and that destroyed any chances of growth. Now that the Nehrus and the Gandhis are out of the race, we have a promising future.

国家必须先发展，然后再监管。印度首先引入了监管，这葬送了增长的机会。现在尼赫鲁和甘地家族已经出局，我们的未来充满希望。

SAIBAL CHAKRABORTY

if there is a CAGR growth of 15% per annum , total export will cross the threshold of 2 trillion dollars in the next 7 years . Import will also increase, and indian participation in global trade will be 5%

如果年复合增长率达到15%，未来7年出口总额将超过2万亿美元。进口也会增加，印度在全球贸易中的份额将达到5%

Rajeev Bhatnagar

Electronics exports were up 50% which is due to PLI scheme. Petroleum products exports were up by 40% which is due to Ukraine War. These are the reasons for increase.

得益于PLI计划，电子产品出口增长了50%。由于乌克兰战争，石油产品出口增长了40%。这些都是增长的原因。

Mohit Goyal

India has a big potential & current government at the centre is doing an excellant work

印度有很大的潜力，现在的印度政府做得非常出色

Ambadas Vaitla

I agree. 2 trillion export dream and all other visionary plans can be realised only if Modi and no one else, remains in power at least for 10 years further.

只有莫迪继续执政至少10年，2万亿出口梦想和所有其他有远见的计划才能实现。

Rajeev Gothecha

if this government will be repeated at 2024 india will be a actual world power in 2030, with highest growth rate, world's biggest Highway network, good public infrastructure like Railways, Roadways, better Internet connectivity. Digitised economy and with several PLI schemes india will become a world force in Electronics, Mobile phone manufacturing, Solar manufacturing, electric cars and several such manufacturing sectors. Make in india has started showing results india needed full majority and ... Read More

如果这届政府能在2024年连任，印度将在2030年成为真正的世界大国，迎来最高的增长率，建成世界上最大的公路网、良好的公共基础设施，如铁路、公路，还有更快速的互联网连接。通过数字化经济和几个PLI计划，印度将成为电子、手机制造、太阳能制造、电动汽车等几个制造业领域的巨头。印度制造已经开始显示出成果。

Prafulla Guest

Without major land and labour reforms it will be difficult to achieve the target...also I don't know why are we rejoicing...Annual 770 billion dollar export is just about 1.5 month's export of China that too when its not at full steam...by the time we reach 2 trillion mark China will be doing 25 trillion...

如果不进行重大的土地和劳动法改革，就很难实现这个目标。不知道我们有什么好高兴的……7700亿美元的年出口额仅相当于中国1.5个月的出口额。当我们达到2万亿大关时，中国出口额或许达到25万亿了…