China may be the world's second largest economy but is it the world's most important economy because of its superior manufacturing capacity?

中国可能只是世界第二大经济体，但它却已是世界上最重要的经济体，这是因为其卓越的制造能力吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Gabi Roz

The US and China are relevant economies (trading partners) for two different kinds of countries.

The US is a service-based economy. Its greatest contribution to the world economy is services. Google, Apple, Microsoft are some extremely rich multinationals that mainly offer services. Intangible assets for the most part.

China is a industrial-based economy. Its greatest contribution to the world economy is manufacturing of all sorts, construction firms, agriculture, basic consumer technology, processed natural resources. Tangible assets for the most part.

美国和中国是两种国家的相关经济体(贸易伙伴)。

美国是一个以服务业为基础的经济体。美国对世界经济的最大贡献是服务业。苹果、微软都是提供服务的跨国公司。大部分资产是无形资产。

中国是一个以工业为基础的经济体。中国对世界经济的最大贡献是各种制造业、建筑公司、农业、基本消费技术、自然资源加工品。大部分资产是有形资产。

The US economy is more relevant to countries in more need of services, which are for the most part developed countries with relatively well-functioning economies that can take advantage of the productivity boost offered by the American services. Countries that have already all the population needs mostly covered so don’t really need to import more food or industrial equipment.

The Chinese economy is more relevant to countries in more need of physical goods, which are for the most part develo and emerging countries. Countries that may not need as much iPhone 14 Pros and Amazon Web Services as they need actual food, farming machinery or physical infrastructure.

美国经济和那些对服务产品需求更大的国家关系更密切，这些国家大多是经济状况相对良好的发达国家，它们可以利用美国服务业提供的生产力。那些大部分人口需求已得到满足的国家不需要进口更多的食品或工业设备。

中国经济和那些对实物商品需求更大的国家关系更密切，这些国家大多是发展中国家和新兴国家。这些国家可能不需要那么多的iPhone 14 pro和亚马逊网络服务，但他们需要食物、农业机械或基础设施。

China also has a large service sector, and the US is also a large exporter of natural resources and manufactured goods, but they tend to specialize more in what was mentioned.

China having a higher GDP PPP (economy size measured in International dollars i.e. adjusted to purchasing power) and higher number of trade partners is a reflection of it being more important than the American economy for develo countries. America’s higher nominal GDP (economy size measured in US dollars) shows it is wealthier in the perspective of developed countries.

中国也有庞大的服务业，美国也是自然资源和制成品的出口大国，但他们往往更偏重于上述各自的领域。

中国的GDP PPP(以国际美元衡量的经济规模，即调整后的购买力)更高，贸易伙伴更多，这说明中国对发展中国家而言更重要。美国名义GDP(以美元衡量的经济规模)更高，表明从发达国家的角度来看，美国更富裕。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

Many Economies can have their policy rock the Global Dynamics and cause Global Problems

Chinas Lockdowns caused a Massive Global Supply Chain Problem

The United States raises its rates and causes a Global Capital Outflow and Global Recession

OPEC decides to cut Production by 15% and suddenly Current Accounts are decimated everywhere

China is a vital cog in the smooth running of the world

Not because of its markets or its Industrial Manufacturing but because of its SUPPLY CHAIN HUB

很多经济体的政策都能撼动全球动态，引发全球问题。

中国之前的封城停产造成了全球供应链问题。

美国提高利率，导致全球资本外流和全球经济衰退。

欧佩克决定将石油减产15%，瞬间令世界各地的现金账户大幅缩水。

中国是世界保持平稳运行的重要一环。

原因不在于它的市场或制造业，而在于它的供应链中心。

There is no commercial product on earth that doesnt have at least a handful of Chinese manufactured components or supplies

From your Zeiss Lens to your Braun Products to your Volkswagen and BMWs to your Sony TV to your Dell Laptops to your Apple IPODS to your Apple IPADS to your Nike Shoes

Between 16% (Ipod) to 78% of the components will be made in China

And Made cost effectively due to Economies of Scale

The US and Europe talk of Supply Chain Resilience but frankly you simply cant shift your supply chains to any other country without either MASSIVE SUBSIDIES or without exporting all the Chinese Laborers and Chinese Manufacturing Units

世界上所有商业产品中都能找到中国制造的零部件或原材料。

从你的蔡司镜头到你的博朗产品，从你的大众、宝马到你的索尼电视、你的戴尔笔记本电脑、你的苹果ipod、你的苹果ipad再到你的耐克鞋。

16% (如Ipod)到78%的零部件都是中国制造的。

而且规模经济带来了成本的降低。

美国和欧洲商讨供应链弹性，但坦率地说，如果没有大量补贴，或者没有中国劳动力和中国制造业，根本无法将供应链转移到任何其他国家。

That will be Chinas core strength for the next 10 years at least

During this period China can boost its Domestic Economy, Boost its Chip Problem and slowly establish substitute markets globally by cutting the US Dollar from 60% of its Trade

至少在未来10年，这都是中国的核心实力。

在此期间，中国可以提振国内经济，解决芯片问题，将60%的贸易跟美元脱钩，慢慢建立全球替代市场。

Greg Freemyer

The US started in 2018 to make a hard push to insulate itself from the Chinese economy.

That continues and has accelerated.

Specifically the US has made a push to friend-shore. In February 2023, for the first time, the US imported more goods from Mexco than from China. And it was a 15% beat.

美国从2018年开始急迫地将自己与中国经济隔离开来。

这种情况持续至今，而且还在不断加速升级

美国已经转向“盟友”。2023年2月，美国从墨西哥进口的商品首次超过了从中国进口的商品，而且超过了15%。

With NAFTA and USMCA (NAFTA2), North America has become an integrated economy, much like the EU.

Canada and Mexco are the #1 and #2 overall trade partners for the US. The US conducted 10% more trade with each individually in 2022 than it did China.

And US imports from Canada in February 2023 also surpassed China.

有了北美自由贸易协定和美墨加贸易协定，北美已经成为一体化的经济体，就像欧盟一样。

加拿大和墨西哥是美国的头号和第二大贸易伙伴。2022年，美国和这两个国家的贸易额都比美国和中国的贸易额高出10%。

2023年2月，美国从加拿大的进口额也超过了中国。

North America has less than half the population of China, but manufactures more in dollar terms.

North America is a major energy exporter. Fossil production is below OPEC, but not by as much as most believe.

Overall, I believe China’s economy is less important to the global economy than North America's.

北美的人口还不到中国的一半，但以美元计算的话北美的制造业规模更大。

北美是一个主要的能源出口国。化石燃料产量低于欧佩克，但差距并不像大多数人认为的那么多。

总的来说，我认为中国经济对全球经济的重要性不如北美经济。

John Andresen

No comment

不予置评，自己看图

Terry Newman

Related

Will China’s economy become the world’s largest?

In terms of GDP, almost certainly. In terms of GDP per capita, not so sure. China has a long way to go before it gets anywhere near most developed countries and there are many barriers to long-term growth.

中国经济会成为世界第一吗？

就GDP而言，几乎可以肯定。但就人均GDP而言，就没有那么肯定了。中国想缩小与大多数发达国家的距离，还有很长的路要走，而且保持长期增长也没那么容易，障碍也不少。

I am reminded of an anecdote about a condemned man who offered his absolute monarch a bargain. He offered to teach the king’s favourite horse to talk in one year, whereupon the king would spare his life. The king agreed. The condemned man’s friend asked him why he would enter into such a crazy bargain. The condemned man’s response was that a lot can happen in a year. “The king could die, the horse could die, I could die, or the horse could learn to talk”.

A lot can happen between now and the time that the Chinese economy is projected to reach a GDP per capita approaching that of the US.

我想起了一个故事，一个被判死刑的人跟国王谈条件。他表示可以在一年内教会国王最喜欢的马说话，届时请国王饶了他的命。国王同意了。死刑犯的朋友问他为什么要做这样一笔愚蠢的交易。死刑犯的回答是，一年足以发生很多事情。“国王可能会死，马可能会死，我也可能会死，或者马可能真的学会说话。”

从现在起到预测中的中国人均GDP接近美国水平的时间里，很多事情都可能发生。

Jed Roberts

Related

Will China’s economy become the world’s largest?

Very, very likely.

However, by PPP GDP (GDP adjusted to the price level of each country) China actually exceeds the US by a hair’s width

中国经济能成为世界第一吗？

非常非常有可能。

就购买力平价GDP(根据每个国家的物价水平调整的GDP)来看，中国实际上已经超过美国了

Now, China is experiencing very fast economic growth, and there’s a good reason for that: China is still quite poor.  Almost an order of magnitude difference. This is incredibly obvious if you look at West China, not just the super rich Shanghai and Shezhen areas.

现在，中国正在经历非常高速的经济增长，对此有一个很好的理由：中国仍然很穷。差别非常显著。如果不是只看超级富裕的上海和深圳地区，你只要看看中国西部就会发现贫困问题非常明显。

These values are indicative of the fact that a lot of China’s populace are still really unproductive. You’ve got lots of people tilling tiny little fields that produce very little crop (vs a US farmer in their combine harvester), you’ve got factory workers performing easily automated operations by hand, etc. The reason is either a lack of capital (to buy automated assembly equipment, modern tractors, etc), education/experience and finally entrepreneurship (establishing companies, implementing new techniques, etc).

这些数值表明很多中国民众仍然没有生产力。很多人还在小块土地上耕作，产出很少的作物(相比之下，美国农民会用联合收割机耕作)，工厂工人还在用手完成本可通过自动化轻松完成的工作。原因要么是资金不足(没钱购买自动化装配设备，现代拖拉机等)，要么是缺乏教育/经验，要么是缺乏创业精神(创立新公司，实施新技术等)。

Now all of those factors are develo, education is improving, there’s more capital than ever, etc. This is why China grows so fast.

Unfortunately, China is starting to hit the end of easy gains. GDP growth has slowed down a lot in the last few years, although it’s still a fast growing economy. So this brings us back to the question, will China eclipse the US?

现在所有这些因素都在发展，教育水平在提高，资本比过往任何时候都充裕，等等。这就是中国可以如此高速发展的原因。

不幸的是，中国轻松躺赚的时代已经到头了。虽然中国仍然是一个快速增长的经济体，但在过去几年里，中国的GDP增长速度已经放缓了很多。这又回归了一个问题，中国会超越美国吗？

I say yes. Over the next few decades China will continue to improve the productivity of its more Eastern regions, while the coastal cities will see factory workers upskilled into more productive positions. Finally a more educated generation will grow up, more clever and innovative.

我觉得会。在未来几十年里，中国会继续提高东部地区的生产效率，而沿海城市的工厂工人会继续提高技能。最后，受教育程度更高的一代将成长为更聪明、更有创新精神的新一代。

Joe Sue

Related

Is China really the world's 2nd largest economy? Why or why not?

Originally Answered: Is China really the worlds 2nd largest economy?

Chinese tell us they are not rich and still a develo country although China is the 2nd largest economy

Indian often tell us they will be the superpower in the future althoungh GDP of India is only 2 trillion now.

Hmmm, it is really a interesting phenomenon. I really wonder the reason caused the difference.

中国真的是世界第二大经济体吗？为什么是？为什么不是？

尽管中国已经是第二大经济体，中国人还是告诉我们他们并不富裕，至今仍然是一个发展中国家。

相比之下，印度人经常宣称他们会成为超级大国，虽然现在印度的GDP只有区区2万亿美元。

嗯，这真是一个有趣的现象。我真的很想知道造成这个差异的原因。

addition:

I never doubt China is still a develo country and I know it still has a 1.3 billion people. But India is also the same. Many comments ask me for the evidence of “India will be a superpower”. Just search on Quora or Youtube, evidence is everywhere?

补充：

我从不怀疑中国现在还只是一个发展中国家，我知道中国有13亿人口。但印度也一样。很多人评论，让我拿出“印度将成为超级大国”的证据。大家只要在Quora或油管上搜索，证据无处不在好吗？