India races to get rich before it gets old as population passes China

印度人口超过中国，要赶在老龄化之前先富起来。

NEW DELHI: On the evening of March 8 Nikita Punjabi born her baby Prisha, is but one of the millions born across India so far this year who have contributed to the historic milestone of passing mainland China’s population.

Bloomberg Economics says India needs to advance on four broad fronts — urbanization, infrastructure, up-skilling and broadening its labor force, and boosting manufacturing — to fully cash in on its demographic dividend and reshape the global economy in the process.

新德里：3月8日晚上，印度西部的尼基塔·旁遮普顺利产下女儿普里莎，这个女婴是印度今年新生的数百万婴儿之一，他们为印度人口超过中国的历史性突破做出了贡献。

彭博经济表示，印度需要在四大方面取得进展——城市化、基础设施、提高技能和扩大劳动力、促进制造业——以便充分利用其人口红利并重塑全球经济。

Urbanization

Over the period to 2040, India will likely add 270 million people to its urban population, according to the International Energy Authority.

城市化

根据国际能源署的数据，到2040年，印度的城市人口可能会增加2.7亿。

Infrastructure

For urbanization to pay economic dividends, infrastructure investment will be needed on a massive scale. There has been progress — since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election win in 2014, the number of domestic air passengers has roughly doubled and the national highway network expanded more than 50%.

基础设施

城镇化要产生经济红利，就需要进行大规模的基础设施投资。自2014年印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪当选以来，印度国内航空乘客的数量大约翻了一番，全国公路网也扩大了50%以上。

Education

Education is another stumbling block. Many degrees are essentially worthless and a skills mismatch has jeopardized growth. Half of all graduates in India are unemployable, according to a study by Wheebox, a group that advises businesses. Unemployment is stubbornly high at around 7%.

教育

教育是另一个障碍。很多学历毫无价值，学生技能不足已经危及了经济增长。根据企业咨询机构Wheebox的一项研究，印度有一半的毕业生找不到工作，失业率居高不下，高达7%左右。

Manufacturing

Increasing rivalry between the US and China is giving Modi’s government a new shot at boosting its manufacturing share to a targeted quarter of GDP. And there are pockets of progress. Apple Inc’s three key Taiwanese suppliers won incentives from India to boost smartphone production and exports.

制造业

美国和中国之间日益激烈的竞争，给了莫迪政府一个新的机会，将制造业占GDP的比例提高到目标的四分之一。印度确实取得了一些进展。苹果公司的三家主要台湾供应商就获得了印度为促进智能手机生产和出口而提供的奖励。

Hope and fear

Rapid progress on urbanization, infrastructure, human development and manufacturing will be needed for decades, not just years, as the population continues to swell. It’s expected to reach 1.67 billion by 2050 — that’s another 250 million people, or roughly the size of Indonesia.

India’s population could start declining in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100, according to UN estimates.

希望与担忧

随着人口的持续膨胀，提升城市化、基础设施、人类发展和制造业方面需要几十年时间的努力。预计到2050年，印度人口将达到16.7亿，新增2.5亿人口，大致相当于印度尼西亚的人口规模。

据联合国估计，印度人口可能从2047年开始下降，到2100年降至10亿。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

Raja Bhai • 10866 • Roshanraj Anand • 21 hours ago

Yes now its now 5 in economy by 2045 it will be no 1

是的，现在印度的经济总量排名第5，到2045年将成为世界第一。

Naturetruth Truth • 7110 • Raja Bhai • 19 hours ago

Many countries facing crisis because of West debt traps (85% of SL debts) and US excessive unlimited QE causing hyperinflation, while FED mindless hiking interest rate is causing many currencies to plunge.

许多国家正面临危机，因为西方债务陷阱(85%的SL债务)和美国过度无限制的量化宽松导致恶性通货膨胀，而且美联储的盲目加息导致许多货币出现暴跌。

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla • 41004 • Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla • 1 day ago

Converted pigs are on rampage to alter demography and not taking care of kids and their future, they are becoming stone pelters.

印度人丝毫不关心孩子和他们的未来，他们个个都会变成投石者。

CampaigningForTwentyTwentyfour • 16233 • Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla • 23 hours ago

That is true. I am seeing more and more Hindus/Christians/Sikhs/Jains/Jews/Parsis producing fewer children.

这倒是真的。我发现越来越多的印度教徒、基督教徒、锡克教徒、耆那教徒、犹太教徒和帕西教徒对生孩子不那么狂热了。

Droid • 38033 • Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla • 1 day ago

they are living rent free in your head... normal people are thinking about education, development, skills

他们在你的脑海里扎根生活了……正常人想的都是教育、发展、技能

CampaigningForTwentyTwentyfour • 16233 • Droid • 23 hours ago

Not true. He just stated a truth.

不是这样的。他只是陈述了一个事实。

Droid

the news is all about India and India's achievements

新闻通篇在说印度和印度的成就

Naturetruth Truth • 7110 • Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla • 22 hours ago

Its a sin to control birth for Islam, Catholic and some religions, as children are deemed God's gifts since god created everything. Turkey's Prez Erdogan has openly called their women to produce as many babies as national duty to control the world.

对于天主教和一些宗教来说，控制生育是一种罪行，因为人们认为孩子是上帝送给人类的礼物，因为上帝创造了一切。土耳其总统埃尔多安就曾公开呼吁本国妇女尽可能多地生孩子。

Pradeep Mehta

Future of India looks doubtful in the present situation. The negative forces in the country are very strong. These negative forces will oppose everything good being done by the Government. The agends of negative forces is to divide the country into many parts.

在目前的形势下，印度的未来令人存疑。这个国家的消极势力非常强大。这些消极势力反对政府做的一切好事，想把国家分裂成许多部分。

A S

Hindu population is less than that of Muslims and Christians. Hindus are no.3.

Hindus should target 200 crore by 2050.

印度教徒的人口已经少于穆 斯林和基督教徒。印度教徒只排在第三。

印度人的目标是到2050年达到20亿。

Brendon Fernandes • 12277 • A S • Mumbai • 1 day ago

You are the perfect example of Whatsapp University education. Not one government statistic agrees with you. So are you saying the government is lying to everyone or are you wrong ?

你就是Whatsapp大学的完美学生。所有政府统计数据都跟你的说法不一致。你意思是政府对所有人撒谎吗？还是你自己错了？

Vijay Desikan • 30895 • Brendon Fernandes • USA • 19 hours ago

By Hindu he means only high caste Brahmins. For most Brahmins the lower castes don't count as Hindus - they are outcastes.

他所说的印度教徒特指的是高种姓的婆罗门。对大多数婆罗门来说，低种姓是不算作印度教徒的——他们是贱民。

Ulhas Kulkarni • 50184 • Navi Mumbai • 1 day ago

India is a small country without any worthwhile resources. In no way, can it sustain such a HUGE population. Indiraji knew. To that end, a population control emergency was introduced in the 1970s. Paid a good dividend while it lasted for a short period of 17 months.

印度是一个小国，没有什么有价值的资源，不可能维持如此庞大的人口。1970年代印度曾实行过人口紧急控制条例，在短短17个月的时间里取得了可观的成绩。

Raja Bhai • 10866 • Droid • 21 hours ago

what about article 370 Ram mandir impelementation CAA making India developed.

实施第370条促进印度发展了吗？

Shloka Bhatt • 33446 • Droid • Delhi • 23 hours ago

Atleast he tried to bring change...in last 70 it was all about status quo...Change is always risker and no PM before challenged status quo...in India people fear change.

至少他想要改变……在过去的70年里，印度只是勉强维持现状……改变当然有风险……在印度，人们害怕改变。

Droid • 38033 • Shloka Bhatt • 22 hours ago

Don't get me wrong. I would vote for the BJP. Not because they are good but everyone else is wayyyyy worse. His claims are tall and actions are comparatively insignificant. He's like 25% efficient when others are 5%.

别误会我的意思。我会投票给人民党，不是因为他们好，而是因为其他党比他们还不如。人民党总是把话说得很漂亮，但做得马马虎虎。如果他的能力可以算25%，别人就只有5%。

Mahesh • 617 • 1 day ago

China is 3 times bigger than india hence india was always the most populous…

中国比印度大了3倍，所以印度的人口一直是最稠密的

Mmmm • 38573 • Mmmm • 1 day ago

India should slow down the BREEDING. If not, just castrate these to not to BREED.

印度应该放慢生育的速度

 Shan Lalman • 647 • Mmmm • 20 hours ago

Castrate yourself first and set an example!

不如你先自宫打个样吧！

Krishnamurthy Krishnamurthy • 53070 • 1 day ago

As long Indians are allowed to have children for religious reasons and ignorance, no efforts of the government to eradicate poverty at the cost of the development of the middle class would ever succeed.

只要默许印度人因为宗教原因和无知继续生孩子，印度政府以牺牲中产阶级的发展作为代价消除贫困的努力就绝不可能成功。

Manoranjan Dutta

Projected demographic dividend shouldn't turn into demographic drag.

计划中的人口红利不应该变成人口拖累。

A S

Chinese population is reducing… they will lose workforce. That’s is why all companies are coming to India. We should only employ hindus and do business with hindus.

中国人口正在减少，他们将失去劳动力。这就是所有企业都开始进入印度的原因。我们应该只雇佣印度人，和印度人做生意。

Aspiretoinspire

If wishes had wings we'd all be flying.. your suggestions would literally require the redrafting of constitution which is impossible in a setup like India.

如果愿望有翅膀，我们可能早都飞上天了。你的建议如果要实施，就得重新起草宪法，这在印度这样的国家是不可能的。

Raja Bhai • 10866 • User N Padmanabhan • 1 day ago

We have got chance we should vote for BJP for next 25 years.any how BJP will rule till 2050

我们有机会，我们必须在未来25年里都投票给人民党。让人民党将统治到2050年。

Roshanraj Anand • 8626 • Raja Bhai • 23 hours ago

Goodluck india will become somaliya .

祝你们好运，印度会变成索马里第二的。