美版知乎：我们正在走向第三次世界大战吗

Are we heading towards World War III?

以下是Quora网友的评论：

DC Adolph

Yes. Great powers will again fall into conflict and drag the rest of the world down with them.

The likeliest causes of WWIII?

是的。几个大国将再次陷入冲突，并将世界其他地区也拖入战局。

最有可能引发第三次世界大战的原因是什么?

Putin pushes too far, thinking the West won't/can't act. Like Hitler and the invasion of Poland, Putin may go after too much and force other nations to act.

China and Japan get into a conflict over territory disputes. The thing grows quickly into a war that involves the US, Japan, S. Korea, China, likely US allies (U.K., Canada, Germany, etc.), and probably Putin’s Russia.

Things completely unravel in the Middle East and proxy wars become direct conflict. The U.S. and its allies would be in a fight against Russia, Iran, and others.

普京的所作所为越线了，他认为西方不会/不能采取行动。普京可能最后会迫使其他国家采取行动。

中国和日本因领土争端而陷入冲突。事情迅速演变成一场战争，并波及美国、日本、韩国、中国，或许还有美国的盟友(英国、加拿大、德国等)，以及普京的俄罗斯。

中东局势彻底崩溃，代理人战争升级成了直接冲突。美国及其盟友将和俄罗斯、伊朗及其他国家对战。

These are just a few possibilities. There are other ways WWIII might become a reality.

Really, it's a “when and who?” question. The conflict itself is inevitable.

上述是几种可能。第三次世界大战还可能以其他方式成为现实。

真的，这就是一个“何时爆发，和谁开战?””的问题。这场冲突本身是不可避免的。

Roland Bartetzko

World War III will come sooner or later. There have to be several elements in place for a war to break out. And then this war has to have certain attributes to be qualified as a world war.

第三次世界大战迟早会爆发。战争的爆发必须满足几个条件。而这场战争必须具备一定的特征才能称得上是世界大战。

First, let's see which factors usually cause wars:

According to the Heidelberg Institute of Conflict Research, these are the reasons why nations or groups go to war:

“Ideological change” is named the main reason for conflict. But can it cause a major conflict and even a World War?

首先，让我们看看导致战争的因素通常有哪些：

根据海德堡冲突研究所的研究，下列几点是国家或团体之间爆发战争的原因：

“意识形态的改变”被视为冲突的主要原因。但单凭它能引发重大冲突，甚至世界大战吗？

But are they able to start a World War? By definition, a WW is "a war involving many large nations in all different parts of the world...."(Google search "world war definition" 12/16/2015)

What we see at the moment is that a not-so-large conflict (Syria) is involving many large nations (the United States, Russia, many NATO countries...).

The only element that is lacking to call the War in Syria a World War is that it is locally contained to only one region. What if the Syrian war would spread globally?

但是他们有能力发动世界大战吗？根据定义，世界大战是“涉及世界各地众多大国的战争....”。(搜索“世界大战的定义”12/16/2015)

我们目前看到的是涉及许多大国(美国、俄罗斯、许多北约国家……)的规模不大的冲突，比如叙利亚战争

我们不能将叙利亚战争称为世界大战的唯一原因在于，它局限于一个地区。如果叙利亚战争蔓延到全球怎么办？

In the end, we would have a scenario that one could call a World War. This is a pessimistic outlook, but not totally far-fetched and unrealistic.

最后，我们会见证一个可以称之为世界大战的场景变成现实。虽然这是一种悲观看法，但也不是完全不切实际。

Dan Bradbury

As it has been repeated in every other question on Quora (and in any other honest answer since the dawn of humanity): Nobody can predict the future. Nobody can even venture the wildest guess as to what will happen beyond the very empirically demonstrated scientific phenomena (i.e.: the Sun will come up tomorrow). Nobody knows. Stop worrying about it.

这个问题和Quora上所有问题一直反复强调的一样（也正如自人类出现以来所有的诚实坦率的回答一样）：没有人能预测未来。除了通过经验证实的科学现象(例如：太阳明天一定会升起)之外，没有人敢大胆猜测未来会发生什么。没有人知道。你也就别操心了。

All evidence suggests no. Turn off your TV. Stop watching the news. Wars are decreasing and so are deaths from wars. Contrary to what you've been told, but most nations aren't suicidal. Any nation engaging Russia, China, the USA, Britain or France are totally suicidal as any of those nations possess sufficient nuclear weapons to end any one nation on the planet.

所有证据都表明第三次世界大战不会发生。关掉电视吧。别看新闻了。战争慢慢减少了，战争造成的死亡也减少了。和你所了解的信息相反，大多数国家并不想自寻死路。和俄罗斯、中国、美国、英国或法国交战的国家简直就是不想活了，这些国家中的随便哪个都拥有足以摧毁地球上任一国家的核武器。

That is the kind of "thing" that prevents WWIII. There is too much money to be made through stability. All of the people fretting about telling you that the world is going to end are idiots. Okay, maybe not idiots -- the world is going to end one day. Just not in your lifetime.

这就是防止第三次世界大战爆发的“东西”。各国在稳定局势下可以赚的钱太多太多了。所有那些制造焦虑，跟你说世界即将毁灭的人都是笨蛋。好吧，也许他们并非笨蛋，总有一天世界会走向毁灭。但在你有生之年暂时还是安全的。

Simon Huggins

Is World War III imminent?

No and Yes.

第三次世界大战迫在眉睫吗？

说不会也对，说会也对。

No: There's too many commercial interests to let it happen. It would require the coalition of various countries in order to make it effective, and then a coalition of countries would have to try to repel them, and then other countries would have to take sides depending on who is the stronger force should their country be on the brink of being overrun, and who do they ally themselves with amongst the other coalitions etc.

说不会的理由：世界大战牵涉了太多的商业利益，需要不同国家联合才能实现，另一方国家联盟必须试图反击，其他国家必须选边站队，但这取决于哪一边更强大，他们的国家是否处于被蹂躏的边缘，以及他们在其他联盟中和谁结过盟等等。

Yes: On the other hand, maybe the next world war won't be fought in blood. Maybe it will be fought in economics.

At the heart of it, so called 'cyber warfare' is about trying to not only hit countries government services, but also cripple corporate identities so that they lose money which has a knock-on effect on the economy of that country etc. etc.

说会的理由：另一方面，下一次世界大战也许不会是血战。也许会是经济学领域的战争。

所谓的“网络战”的核心是，不仅要攻陷对方国家的政府机构，还要打击企业，让他们遭受经济方面的损失，从而对该国的经济造成连锁反应等等。

Peter

Is World War III imminent?

First, let's define our terms. How about this for "World War"

a war involving many large nations in all different parts of the world.

Now let's ask, who would fight this war?

第三次世界大战迫在眉睫吗？

首先，让我们先对“世界大战”做一下定义，下面这个解释怎么样？

一场涉及世界各地许多大国的战争。

现在我们可以想想，谁会参加这场战争？

There are various rankings of large military powers, but the biggest ones are clearly the USA, Russia, China and India, with the USA in a clear lead. I'd say a world war would have to involve at least two of these powers.

I don't think that's imminent, but how might that happen (given that I don't think any of these scenarios are very likely).

我们听过各种各样的军事大国排名，但最大的军事大国显然就是美国、俄罗斯、中国和印度，其中美国遥遥领先。我认为一场世界大战至少要牵涉到最少两个这样的大国。

我不认为第三次世界大战迫在眉睫，但爆发的可能性如何呢(我认为发生以下这些情况的可能性不大)。

1. Putin decides that he wants to annex all the former Soviet countries and launches a huge military invasion of eastern Europe, with tanks, aircraft etc.

2. India and Pakistan get into a war; China sides with Pakistan and the USA sides with India.

3. The Sunni-Shia fighting expands greatly, with different countries getting involved somehow or other.

1. 普京决心吞并前苏联的所有国家，用坦克、飞机等对东欧发动大规模军事入侵。

2. 印度和巴基斯坦开战；中国支持巴基斯坦，而美国支持印度。

3. 逊尼派和什叶派之间的冲突不断扩大，众多国家因为种种原因卷入其中。

But, 1. I don't think Putin is that nuts. 2. India and Pakistan right now seem to be a little less belligerent with each other than in the past and Pakistan has enough problems on its own and 3. I don't see how this would become a world war.

但是，1、我觉得普京并没有那么疯狂。2、印度和巴基斯坦现在似乎不像过去那么敌对了，巴基斯坦早已自顾不暇。3、我觉得这个情况不会演变成世界大战。

Shane Ward

In my opinion no, as another world war would not help anybody, except America as they join the party late to another world war, and would only join of they can make more profit from other countries.

在我看来是不会开战的，因为再来一场世界大战对谁也没有好处，除了美国，因为他们会很迟才加入另一场世界大战，只有这样才能赚走其他国家大笔财富。

If there is another world war (which I hope there isn't) it won't be with nuclear weapons, as almost every powerful nation has them, only as deterrents. I mean the only country ever to use a weapon of that magnitude was America in WWII. Now that almost everyone has them, I don't believe that option will ever see the light of day, as if it does……everybody loses, and nobody wants to lose.

如果另一场世界大战真的发生（我希望不会发生），也不会动用核武器，因为几乎每个强国都拥有核武器，而核武器只是一种威慑力量。我的意思是，唯一一个使用过这种大规模武器的国家是二战中的美国。现在几乎每个国家都有核武器了，我不相信真的有国家会启用核武器，如果真的启用.......那大家都只有死路一条，这是谁也不愿意的事。

Wesley Dry

Will there be a WWIII?

Short Answer:

1. Possible? Yes. Nuclear? Probably not.

2. When: if it happens, best guess is around 2050.

3. Players: at least the US, China, Japan, & India.

第三次世界大战会爆发吗？

简单回答如下：

1. 可能吗？是有可能的。会是核战吗？可能不会。

2. 何时：如果真的发生，最合理的预测是在2050年左右。

3. 参战国：至少会有美国、中国、日本和印度。

Dan Bradbury

Is it just me or are we headed towards a global conflict?

No. It's not just you. But it is highly doubtful that there will be one. I don't see any evidence of such an event. And contrary to what you may be reading on the news, the world is actually at the greatest degree of peace in known history. There are fewer people dying of poverty today than in any time in the past. More people are richer than at any time in the past. A greater percentage of the world is middle-class on up than in any time in the past. There are fewer people dying in conflicts than at any time in the past.

我们是在慢慢走向一场全球冲突吗？难道这是我自己的误觉？

不。有这种感觉的不止你一人。但会不会真的开战，我觉得很难说。我没有看到任何相关证据。和你通过新闻了解到的资讯正好相反，世界目前正处于历史上最和平的时期。现在死于贫困的人比历史上任何时候都要少。越来越多的人过上了富裕的生活。全球中产阶级的比例也高于历史任何时期。因为战争冲突而丧生的人数也少了很多。