Quora网友：越南制造业能取代中国吗

Will Vietnam manufacturing replace China manufacturing?

越南制造业能取代中国吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

John Wong

Some people do not understand what had happened in China to get to its current position.

I was in the Solar PV industry before. China is the leading country in this industry by far, but do you know how many Chinese companies in this country had collapsed? There were two severe attacks among many many other, the anti-dum crisis and the market manipulation of the raw material prices .. many companies went bankrupted but at the end few had survived.

有些人不理解中国到底经历过什么，才能拥有今日的地位。

我以前在太阳能光伏行业工作过。如今中国是这个行业的领先国家，但你知道有多少中国公司倒闭了吗？在众多的打击中，有两次打击是最为严重的：反倾销和操纵原材料价格。很多公司破产了，最后幸存下来的企业少之又少。

This industry was actually a relatively simple one, unlike others like the light electronics such as mobile phones. In Korea, only Samsung had survived, in the US just iPhone, Japan’s Sony is still there but rather small; other Western brands still on the market are also rather small. There had been many Chinese innovations in something like mobile phones that we take things for granted.

After understanding stories like that, you think building industries are simple? Vietnam is only there for assembling, not even product development, not to say designs and concepts etc. Not close to ‘develo own brands’.

这个行业其实只是一个相对简单的行业，不像其他行业，比如手机等轻电子产品。韩国只有三星幸存下来；美国有iPhone幸存下来；日本的索尼存活下来了，但规模较小；其他仍在售的西方品牌也很小众。中国在手机等领域有很多创新，而我们认为这都是理所当然的事。

看完上面的回答，你还觉得一个行业的形成很容易吗？越南只负责组装，连产品开发都不需要，更不用说设计和概念等。越南离“发展自己的品牌”还差得远呐。

Peter Kaye

That would be impossible, simply because of size differences, they could replace SOME of Chinas manufacturing, but would it be as good? Or even as cheap? Those questions can’t be answered untill they actually do it, thing is Chinas infrastructure and supply lines, are already developed, where Vietnams are not, that’s one of the main advantages China has over others, it’s not as simple as building a building and turn it into a factory, you need a steady supply of raw materials, then you need to get them to ports, ships and off to markets all in a timely fashion, if not, it all ads cost to the product at the final destination. Then on top of that you need skilled workers, you just can’t pick up any one off the street and expect them to do a decent job. That’s just not how it works.

那是不可能的，原因只有一个：规模差异，越南可以取代中国的某些制造业，但质量能保证吗？能一样便宜吗？在越南真的做到之前，这种问题都没法回答。中国的基础设施和供应链都很成熟，但越南在这些方面远远不足。这正是中国对其他国家的主要优势之一，这不是简单地建造一栋建筑并把它变成一个工厂这么简单，你需要稳定的原材料供应，需要运输到港口、装船并尽快运抵市场，否则，商品在最终目的地的销售成本都得上涨。最重要的是，你需要熟练的工人，你不可能在街上随便拉个人就指望他们能马上干得又快又好。不是这样的。

I have mentioned this before, not Vietnam, but Indonesia, I have been useing Phillips shavers ever since they first came on the market first the corded ones, then later the battery ones when they became available, was always very happy with the results, recently I had to buy a replacement the wife was with me at the time, there were two types one made in China but it had the elevated heads which I don’t like much the other was just the normal one but made in Indonesia, so I picked it , the wife asked why I didn’t get the Chinese one, I told her I preferred the normal one, saying the are both from the same company so they should both be the same quality, BOY WAS I WRONG, when I took it home and started useing it, IT WAS THE WORST SHAVER I’VE EVER HAD, the shaver head was loose and moved from side to side as I shaved, took twice as long to shave, and still left bits of stubble. NEVER AGAIN, will only ever buy made in China from now on, that’s the difference by having things made in other countries, just not good enough.

我说过这个例子，但跟越南没关系，是印尼的。我一直都用飞利浦的剃须刀，从他们第一代的有绳款，到后来新出的电池款，我一直都用得很满意。最近我得换个新的，我太太和我一起去挑的，有两种选择：一种中国产的，但刀头较高，我不是很喜欢，另一种就是印尼产的普通款，所以我选择后者。我太太问我为什么不选中国产的那款，我说我更喜欢普通款，这两种都是同一家公司的产品，所以质量应该一样。结果我大错特错，带回家后我用了一下，绝对是我过的最糟糕的剃须刀。剃须刀头很松动，刮胡子的时候左右摇摆，我花了两倍的时间还有些胡渣没刮干净。我失望极了，从那以后只买中国制造的商品，这就是其他国家制造的东西的差别，质量就是不行啊。

ThienLuan Le

Is Vietnam becoming a new China (in terms of world manufacturing)?

No. Vietnam indeed is doing everything to improve her manufacturing competence. Yet not and never becoming “a new China". The size of population and area of Vietnam is just barely the same as an average province of China, yet China has opened the door for businesses with the world outside, as well as acquiring high technologies even before Vietnam . In all aspects, including manufacturing products, Vietnam can only become better than herself but to become powerful like China is beyond her capability. Doing things that are not beyond your strength is a wise choice.

越南正在崛起为一个新的中国（世界工厂）吗？

不。越南确实在尽一切努力提高自己的制造能力。但还没办法，也永远不可能成为“新的中国”。越南的人口和面积几乎就跟中国的一个省份相当，但中国早已打开了与全世界做生意的大门，甚至在越南之前就掌握了高科技。在所有领域，包括制造业在内，越南只有可能变得比现在的越南更好，但要变得像中国一样强大，这是强人所难。做自己力所能及的事才是明智的选择。

Tony

Will Vietnam replace China as the world's largest manufacturer?

Back in 1980s, I heard a Chinese ( rather he was a Hong Kongese back then) said that you should invest in Vietnam. Fast forward 40 years till now, the economy of Vietnam has increased 30 - 40 times, which means that anyone has invested in Vietnam, can do extremely well. I have a privilege of knowing a gentleman, who become a multi millionaire from his investments in Vietnam since then.

越南会取代中国成为世界上头号制造大国吗？

早在上世纪80年代，我就听到一个中国人(更确切地说是位中国香港人)说，你应该投资越南。时间快进40年，如今越南的经济增长了30 - 40倍，这意味着任何在越南投资的人都收益颇丰。我有幸认识一位男士那时起就在越南投资，现在早已成了千万富翁。

(Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

For a Japanese, Korean or Chinese, Vietnam has offered the opportunity, if he has a time travel machine that allows him to travel back in time. He has the formula of success and he can apply that formula in Vietnam without having to pay for all the hiccups and setbacks, when he had started his businesses back then in his own country. You can clearly see that this trend will continue into the future.

(越南胡志明市)

对于日本人、韩国人或中国人来说，如果有机会乘坐旅行机器回到过去，那么越南绝对是一个很好的机会。他已经在本国成功创业了，可以把成功模式复制到越南，不用为当初遇到过的问题和挫折重新支付学费。你可以清楚地看到，这种趋势未来还将持续。

Will Vietnam replace China as the world's largest manufacturer? Well that is not a really relevant question. I do not think that Vietnam wants to replace China as world’ s manufacturer. From my knowledge, I think that Vietnam’s model of development will be more similar to model of Korea and Japan.

越南会取代中国成为世界上最大的制造国吗？这是个毫无意义的问题。我认为越南也没有取代中国成为世界工厂的打算。在我看来，越南的发展模式跟韩国和日本更相似。

Joseph Wang

Is China's manufacturing sector under threat from Vietnam's raising manufacturing industry?

No.

The fact of the matter is that it is more cost efficient to move low-end manufacturing to places like Vietnam and Bangledesh than to keep it in China, and China is responding not by trying to keep this sort of manufacturing in China, but to move up the value chain and try to manufacture high technology items.

中国制造业是否受到越南制造业崛起的威胁？

不。

事实是将低端制造业转移到越南和孟加拉国等地，会比留在中国的成本效益更高，中国的应对之策不是试图将这类制造业强留在中国，而是主动向价值链上游移动，并着手制造高科技产品。

However, this is causing major problems with the US. The trouble is that back in the 1980s and 1990s, low end manufacturing moved to China, and the theory was that the US would focus on higher end manufacturing. The trouble now is that the products that moved to China are now moving to Vietnam, which means that China wants to move up the value chain, and this is causing conflict with the US.

不过这给美国带来了重大问题。早在上世纪八九十年代，美国就将低端制造业转移到了中国，当时人们认为美国应该把重点放在高端制造业上。现在又要把曾经转移到中国的制造业转移到越南，这意味着中国向着价值链的上游移动，引发了中国与美国的利益冲突。

Machayaima Mangang

It is unlikely that Vietnam manufacturing will completely replace China manufacturing, as both countries have unique advantages and disadvantages in the global manufacturing industry.

China has been the world's leading manufacturing hub for several decades due to its large population, extensive infrastructure, and low labor costs. However, in recent years, rising labor costs and concerns about intellectual property theft have caused some manufacturers to look for alternative locations.

越南制造业不太可能完全取代中国制造业，因为两国在全球制造业中都有独特的优势和劣势。

几十年来，由于人口众多、基础设施完善、劳动力成本低，中国一直是世界领先的制造业中心。但近年来不断上涨的劳动力成本和对知识产权盗窃的担忧，促使一些制造商转而寻找其他替代制造基地。

Vietnam has emerged as a popular destination for manufacturers looking to diversify their supply chains, as it has a large and young workforce, favorable trade agreements, and lower labor costs than China. Additionally, Vietnam's proxmity to China and other major Asian markets makes it a strategic location for international trade.

越南已成为寻求多元化供应链的制造商的热门选择，因为越南拥有庞大而年轻的劳动力，宜商的贸易协定，以及比中国更低的劳动力成本。此外，越南靠近中国和其他主要亚洲市场，使其成为国际贸易的战略要地。

Nicolaas Manoppo

Vietnam is too small to replace China. It is also located on the wrong side of the Pacific Ocean.

India is a big country which also can provide large number of cheap labors. India will most likely replace China. However Mexco is also a similar big country that is located at the right side of the Pacific Ocean and it is in an alliance with the US. So Mexco is also a candidate to replace China.

越南太小了，无法取代中国。越南就是生错地方了，位于太平洋的另一边。

印度是一个大国，也拥有大量廉价劳动力。印度很可能会取代中国。墨西哥也是一个类似的大国，位于太平洋的右侧，还和美国结盟。所以墨西哥也是一个可能取代中国的候选国家。

Dong-Yoon Lee

Can Vietnam rise and become the next manufacturing country? For example, surpassing China and South Korea?

In relations with Vietnamese, our South Koreans assumed that the demands of the southern Vietnamese were dominant, so South Korea sent troops, and carried out some civilian massacres to take effects of military operations in the characteristical warfare against co sm. As part of its apology, it has provided a large amount of economic support, which has raised concerns from a side of China, and China has also supported Vietnam competitively. As a result, Vietnam was able to achieve very fast economic growth.

越南能崛起并成为下一个制造业国家吗？比如，超越中国和韩国？

事关越南的时候，我们的韩国人就以南越的要求至上，所以韩国派遣了军队，还在针对越共的军事行动中屠杀了一些平民。作为道歉，韩国提供了大量的经济支持，这引起了中国方面的担忧，中国因此也不遑相让地支持越南。所以越南实现了非常高速的经济增长。

Vietnam, for example, is trying to catch up with advanced countries in the automotive and electronics industries, and is experiencing setbacks right now, but all those experiences will eventually take them to the higher ground.

However, they showed pro-Russian diplomacy and attitude towards their affection on past co sm-sphere in the recent Russian-Ukrainian war. This has made Western countries a little wary of Vietnam. I note the aftermath of this. And as another matter, some of them tend to get closer by friendly relations with China from historical and cultural afficinity. It looks that way to me.

例如，越南目前铆足了劲要在汽车和电子工业方面赶上发达国家的脚步，虽然进展不顺，但这些经历最后会让他们更上一层楼。

不过在最近的俄乌战争中，越南表现出亲俄外交和重温昔日情谊的态度。这让西方国家对越南开始有些警惕。

另一方面，有些越南人出于历史和文化上的亲缘关系而希望与中国建立更密切的友好关系。在我看来是这样的。

AnhMy Tran

Yes, and No.

Yes: many Chinese business persons are now in Vietnam having manufacturing, and more to come.

No: the majority of China manufacturing cannot move to Vietnam. Common sense.

也许。

说会，是因为很多中国商人现在转战越南，继续从事制造业，未来还会有更多的人到来。

说不会，是因为大部分中国制造业无法转移到越南。这是常识，一想即知。