The U.S. dollar is described by many as the last bastion of U. S. power. Will the United States go to war if the world (or most part of it) abandons the US dollar for the Chinese yen?

美元被视为美国影响力的最后堡垒。如果世界(或大部分地区)抛弃美元而选择人民币，美国会不会开战？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Ted Chyn

The Dollar is still the king of the currency. The following Fedwire funds Service statistics show there has not been any slowdown on the Dollar as the reserve currency yet. (The last column)

美元现在依然是货币之王。联邦电信基金服务统计数据显示，美元作为储备货币尚未出现减速情况。(最后一栏)

There is a drop in Foreign Exchange Reserves in Dollars as the result of the Pandemic slow in world commerce.

由于新冠疫情导致世界贸易放缓，美元外汇储备有所减少。

As of the end of 2022, it is evident that the RMB has not made significant progress, primarily due to its fixed value within the dollar range and limited trading in major markets owing to its scarcity compared to the dollar, which has over 100 trillion in circulation. Additionally, the capital control measures imposed by the PBOC further hinder the RMB's potential as a reserve currency. Most of China's de-dollarization efforts are defensive, aimed at avoiding sanctions and future trade embargoes. Thus, it is clear that there is still a long way to go before the RMB could be considered on par with, let alone surpassing, the US dollar.

截至2022年底，人民币尚未取得取得重大进展，主要原因是其价值设定在美元浮动区间内，而且与流通规模超过100万亿美元的美元相比，人民币的稀缺性限制了其在主要市场的交易规模。此外，中国人民银行实施的资本管制措施进一步阻碍了人民币作为储备货币的潜力。中国的大多数去美元化努力都是防御性质的，目的在于避免制裁和未来的贸易禁运。由此可见，人民币要想与美元平起平坐，甚至超过美元，还有很长的路要走。

However, in an unpredictable world, the performance of 2022 cannot guarantee future outcomes. By the end of this year (2023), we will find out how far the once mighty dollar has lost its value, as the US faces a shortage of countries to impose sanctions on.

不过，在这个变幻莫测的世界里，2022年的表现也不代表未来的走向。到今年年底(2023年)，我们会发现曾经强大的美元究竟贬值了多少，因为美国也没有多少可以实施制裁的国家了。

PC Yu

I do not think USA can. Because dedollarization is a global thing. USA cannot fight with so many countries at the same time.

USA may try to beat up China, but there is Russia & India the other 2 big country. Not to mention France & Germany, Saudi & Iran.

Besides, China & Russia are militarily prepared for the crazy USA.

我认为美国做不到。因为去美元化是全球性的趋势。美国不可能同时跟这么多国家作战。

美国可能会试图打败中国，但还有俄罗斯和印度这两个大国。更别提法国、德国、沙特和伊朗了。

而且中国和俄罗斯也已经为疯狂的美国做好了军事准备。

Brian Rauchfuss

Somehow the dollar is the last bastion rather than the huge military?

Anyways, the dollar being the world reserve and trade currency has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that our debt has a lot of ready buyers and so we can run up a huge debt .. ok, maybe that’s a disadvantage. The other disadvantage is that we need to provide huge amounts of dollars outside the country by running a huge trade deficit.

最后的堡垒是美元，难道不应该是庞大的军队吗？

不论如何，美元作为世界储备货币和贸易货币既有优点也有缺点。好处是我们的债务有很多现成的买家，所以我们可以积累巨额债务。好吧，也许这也正是一个缺点。另一个缺点是，我们需要通过巨额贸易逆差向国外提供巨额美元。

So the world switching away from the dollar would allow the USA to rebuild its manufacturing base and become more independent. Unfortunately, China has no interest in switching from a huge trade surplus to a huge trade deficit, so the yuan will simply not be widely available and cannot be a world currency. The yuan can be used in trade with countries China has large bilateral trade with - China buys from the country in yuan and then the country sends the yuan right back by buying from China.

世界弃用美元，会让美国重振制造业，变得更加独立。可惜中国无意从巨额贸易顺差转变为巨额贸易逆差，所以人民币无法得到广泛使用，也不可能成为世界货币。中国可以用人民币和与中国有着大量双边贸易的国家进行贸易——中国用人民币从一个国家购买，然后这个国家通过从中国进口商品将人民币汇回来。

Done with the Bullshit?

The yen is the currency of Japan. Chinese currency is called renminbi, and the yuan is an element of that. As you may be aware, China and Japan are separate countries. I’m not familiar with the description of the dollar as the last bastion of U.S. power, but what do you think going to war under the circumstances you describe would accomplish?

日元是日本的货币。中国的货币叫人民币，元是人民币的一个单位。大家都知道，中国和日本是两个完全不同的国家。我不太明白将美元说成美国影响力的最后堡垒的说法，但你想想看，如果发生你所谓的情况，美国发动战争会有什么下场？

Robert Quek

(1) International use of the Chinese Yuan is rising. But the world is not moving to a Yuan system. There are not enough Yuan floating around in the world. We are moving towards a multi-currency system. Yuan, US$, and a few other currencies will be major currencies. US$ will be just a major currency, not the dominant currency.

(1)人民币的使用正在全球普及，但还没有形成趋势。因为全球没有足够的人民币在流通。我们正朝着多货币体系迈进。人民币、美元和其他一些货币将成为主要货币。美元将只是一种主要货币，不再是主导货币。

(2) US has spent trillions of dollars to wage wars, all of them overseas. Costs are difficult to account if not unaccountable. Unbeknown to the people, they have been disguised and socialized - inflation, government debt burden, poor social and government services…. But gains have been privatized. MIC have been enriched, coffers of political campaign funds filled up, and many private pockets as well. MIC has the purse-string and politics under control.

(2)美国豪掷数万亿美元来发动战争，所有战争都发生在海外，投入的战争成本难以计算。但鲜为人知的是，这些战争成本被掩盖、被摊薄了——通货膨胀、政府债务负担、糟糕的社会和政府服务....而收益被收入某些人的私囊中。军工企业富得流油，政治竞选金库充盈，很多个人也赚得盆满钵满。军工企业掌控着财政和政治。

(3) A few numbers to show you who have voice and who just listen. US budget expenditure in 2022 $6.01 trillion = Mandatory (Social securities, Medicare, Medicaid) $4.02 trillion + Net interest on government debt $305 billion + Discretionary $1.69 trillion = Defence $756 billion (45%) + Non-defence $932 billion (55%), that covers other government activities from foreign affairs, education, and everything else. Defence almost equal Non-defence. Congress does not dare touch Defence. Off budget increase is common.

(3) 以下这些数字能告诉你谁有发言权，而谁只有听话的份儿。2022年美国预算支出6.01万亿美元=强制性(社会保险，医疗保险，医疗补助)4.02万亿美元+政府债务净利息3050亿美元+可自由支配的1.69万亿美元=国防7560亿美元(45%)+非国防9320亿美元(55%)，这包括其他政府活动，从外交事务，教育到其他一切。国防几乎等于没有国防。国会也不敢碰国防，经常出现预算外的增长。

(4) Wars in foreign lands are profitable, ideal to create wealth for the MIC, owners and corporate. The size of the budget says it all.

But war in homeland USA will destroy wealth, and if it goes nuclear, it will destroy everything they have built. Under no circumstances will MIC allow this to happen.

(4) 在别国土地上打仗有利可图，是为军工界的所有者和企业创造财富的理想选择。预算的规模就说明了一切。

但是战争如果发生在美国本土，就会摧毁财富，如果是核战就会摧毁一切。无论在何种情况下，军界都不会允许这种情况的发生。

For this reason, the US will not go to war if the US$ loses its dominance. MIC will not permit it. US government will obey. MIC controls the purse-string. MIC will not permit it because such a war will be a war against Russia or China, or both of them. A war against any one of them will not stop at the border. Both are fully quipped and capable nuclear powers.

因此，如果美元失去主导地位，美国是不会开战的。美国军界不会同意。美国政府也会听从军界的决定。美国军界掌控美国财政。美国军界不会允许开战的原因，是因为战争对象肯定是俄罗斯或中国，或者两者联手。和这两个国家打仗，战火肯定会烧到境内。这两个国家都是装备齐全、军事能力强悍的核大国。

Gilbert K

There’s nobody to go to war with.

If a large part of the world slowly abandons the US dollar, it is because of the USA’s own doing.

没有人可以和你开战。

如果世界上很大一部分国家慢慢放弃美元，那也是美国咎由自取。

Firstly, it prints too much money and accumulates too much debt. At some point, this makes other countries worry about holding too much USD. Republicans and Democrats constantly having arguments about whether to raise the debt ceiling simply has the effect of further eroding confidence.

首先，美国印了太多钞票，积累了太多债务。在某种程度上，其他国家因此会担心自己持有了过多美元。共和党和民 主党不断争论要不要提高债务上限，这只会进一步损害外界对美元的信心。

Secondly, it uses its sanction powers too liberally. Russia, North Korea, Iran, Cuba and Venezuela are the most well-known targets of these sanctions, but there are also others. All countries see the possibility that one day, the USA might issue sanctions against them. Therefore it is important not to be overly reliant on the USD.

其次，美国过于随意地使用制裁权。俄罗斯、朝鲜、伊朗、古巴和委内瑞拉都是众所周知的制裁目标，另外还有些国家。所有国家都看到了美国也许某天就对他们实施制裁的可能性。因此不能过度依赖美元。

Thirdly, in recent years, the USA has been imposing tariffs. The main target has been China, but countries such as the EU, UK, Canada and Mexco have been affected. These tariffs can be interpreted as the USA moving away from globalisation. This also means that there is less reason to use the USD.

第三，近年来，美国一直在加征关税。加征关税的主要目标是中国，但欧盟、英国、加拿大和墨西哥等国家也受到了影响。这些关税也可以说明美国正在脱离全球化。这也意味着各国使用美元的理由更少了。

What I mean to say is dedollarisation is not a political move. It is a sound decision, purely from the perspective of financial risk management and the economics of international trade.

And the last driver is fintech (financial technology). This is a fast-growing area. With each passing year, technology is making it quicker and easier and cheaper to make cross-border payments in different currencies. This again means reduced reliance on USD.

我想说的是，去美元化不只是一个政治决策。单纯从金融风险管理和国际贸易经济学的角度来看，这也是一个明智的决定。

最后一个驱动因素是金融科技。这是一个快速发展的领域。随着时间的流逝，该技术的发展使得不同货币的跨境支付变得更快、更容易、更便宜。这也意味着各国对美元的依赖减少了。

Bill Langston

The dollar is in no way shape or form the “last bastion” of US power. Whomever thinks that is simply ignorant about the US and is drinking the propaganda Kool=Aid of vile dic ships.

美元绝不是美国影响力的“最后堡垒”。这是对美国的无知。

The US derives it’s power from it’s really fortunate geographic location on the planet. It is completely self sufficient, bordered by friends and allies and utterly uninvadable. If the US disengaged with most of the world then most of the world collapses into regional warfare, trade collapses but the US, Canada and Mexco are just fine. We don’t depend on the rest of the world, the rest of the world depends on us.

美国的影响力源于美国在地球上的绝佳地理位置。美国可以完全自给自足，与友邦和盟国接壤，无法入侵。如果美国不再和世界大部分地区接触，那么世界大部分地区就会陷入地区战争，贸易崩溃，但美国、加拿大和墨西哥不会受到影响。我们并不依赖世界其他地方，但是世界其他地方都依赖着我们。

As far as currencies go, the world depends on the dollar because it is the most reliable currency not because the US demands it. Most currencies float freely on international markets and ANYONE can buy of sell ANY currency that they wish. Everyone is FREE TO BUY whatever currency they wish. Currencies are backed by the full faith of the economy of their respective governments.

就货币而言，世界之所以依赖美元，是因为美元是最可靠的货币，而不是因为美国要求大家使用美元。大多数货币在国际市场上自由浮动，任何人都可以买卖他们想要的任何货币。每个人都可以自由购买他们想要的任何货币。货币是由各国政府对经济的充分信心支撑的。

Are you or anyone else going to trust the or Russia and their economies? If you do than you can by their currencies all you wish. So can everyone else. Thin is, when the economic shit hits the fan people and governments flee to safety and that’s the US dollar first and the Euro second.

你们会相信中国或俄罗斯的经济吗？如果你相信，你也可以使用他们的货币。其他人也一样。不过问题在于，当经济崩溃的时候，人们和政府都想要最安全的货币，美元第一，欧元第二。

Mark Cardin

The US will simply sell itself to China in exchange for cancelling their T-bills. They get the cities and their problems and the US keeps the countryside—the mountains and water.

美国会干脆把自己卖给中国来冲抵美国国债。中国拿下了美国的城市、接手了美国的问题，而美国保留了山山和水水。

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