Is it true that as long as the US has the strongest military in the world the benchmark global currency will remain the US dollar?

只要美国拥有世界上最强大的军事力量，全球基准货币就仍然是美元吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

John Hudson

Answer: No.

As a matter of coincidence it may be so, but it is only a coincidence. It isn’t military power that makes the USD the default currency.

The US Dollar is the default currency because the US economy still provides the biggest tax base in the world to support that currency, AND it is a freely traded currency.

But the Euro is coming close (again it has nothing to do with individual countries, but with the economic backing of the Eurozone), and China is getting very close too.

回答：没有。

也许是巧合，但这真的也只是个巧合。让美元成为储备货币的并不是美国的军事实力。

美元是储备货币，因为美国经济提供了全球最大的税基来支持美元的坚挺，而且美元是一种可以自由交易的货币。

但欧元正在逼近美元的地位(再次强调，这和个别国家无关，和欧元区的经济实力有关)，中国也非常接近了。

China still hasn’t structured it’s currency for free exchange and market depth, but its influence around Asia is becoming quite dominant.

Within the next 5 to 10 years China could become the default currency of the world, if it chooses to make the necessary structural changes to its banking, currency exchange, laws, and financial markets to do this.

Regardless of the size of the US military.

中国的货币还未实现自由兑换和市场深度，但人民币在亚洲的影响力已经占了主导地位。

在未来5到10年内，如果中国对银行、货币兑换、法律和金融市场进行必要的结构性改革，人民币有可能成为全球储备货币。

这和美军的规模没有关系。

In practice, there does tend to be a relationship between the size of military a country can afford, and the size of its economy. This is why there can be a coincidental relationship between military power and default currency/

Hope this helps.

一个国家能够负担得起的军事规模与该国经济规模之间确实存在一种联系。这就是军事实力和储备货币之间存在巧合关系的原因吧。

希望这个回答对你有所帮助。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

There will be a fragmentation. Other currencies will step up to compete and may even become the official currencies in regions that the US has less control over. Hey look - the 20th century was amazing for this country. But it’s over. Time to change, time to take our place in the world order instead of bullying our way to the front of the line, time to face reality - the “US century” ended 23 years ago. We ain’t all that anymore.

这种局面即将改变。其他货币会加紧竞争，甚至有可能成为美国控制力较为薄弱的地区的官方货币。20世纪对美国而言是美好的时代。但一切都结束了。是时候变天了，是时候在世界秩序中寻得我们自己的一席之地，不能再靠恃强凌弱了，是时候面对现实了——“美国时代”在23年前就结束了。我们不可能重获往昔荣耀了。

Edward Lovagrend

Well it depends, the British pound was replaced by the dollar and ww2 is really what did them in. The US had the largest economy and a fairly strong millitary (navy) since the end of the Civil War. It was the better part of a century for the US to supercede the British.

Now as far as today what currency could overtake the dollar?

嗯，这要看情况，英镑被美元取代的真正原因是二战。自美国内战结束以来，美国拥有最大的经济体和强大的军事实力(海军)。美国用了大半个世纪的时间才取代英国。

就目前而言，哪种货币能超过美元?

The Euro is the closest and it's not really used outside the EU.. so something significant would have to happen to the US like a civil war or it being crushed by a coalition of countries.. or more likely a country playing the long game in undermining the global order. China for one could leverage it's economy and influence to force a change.. but I don't see that happening as the US is still trusted as the world leader.

But time will tell.

欧元是最有可能的，在欧盟以外并不普及…所以美国必须发生一些大事，比如内战，或者被某些国家联手打败，或者更有可能是某国破坏了全球秩序。中国可以利用其经济和影响力来迫使美元地位的改变。但我认为这种情况不会发生，因为美国仍然被视为世界领袖。

但时间会证明一切。

Pavel Fekula

I have a feeling that the actions in the Ukraine are going to be the begng of the end of the dollar’s reserve currency status. Before the crisis erupted, many countries were looking to diversify their national savings away from the dollar. The US economy is riddled with debt, setting the country up for long term decline. As a result, the investment prospects in the US are no longer what they once were. By contrast, Russia has the lowest debt levels in the world.

我有一种感觉，乌克兰的行动会是美元储备货币地位终结的开始。在危机爆发之前，许多国家都希望努力将本国储蓄多样化，降低对美元的依赖。美国经济债台高筑，注定要走向长期衰退。因此，美国的投资前景已今非昔比。相比之下，俄罗斯的债务水平是全球最低的。

Many countries were afraid that Uncle Sam would move to declare war on them if they began selling off dollars for other currencies, initiating the process of de-dollarization. The US has vowed to defend the dollar’s reserve currency status with military force. Many of the US’s allies’ investment decisions are guided by a sense of fear of what will happen if they refuse to heed the American will.

很多国家都担心，如果他们开始抛售美元以换取其他货币，启动去美元化进程，山姆大叔会向他们宣战。美国发誓会用军事力量捍卫美元的储备货币地位。美国的许多盟友在做出决定时，都担心如果他们违背美国的意愿会发生什么。

However now that Russia has proven that it can stand up to Uncle Sam militarily, the dollar’s days as global world currency are likely numbered. Other countries are more likely to bust the sanctions and invest in Russia to preserve their national currency. What is more, countries now know that they can turn to Russia for military protection against the US if they choose to sell dollars. As a result, the Ukraine Crisis is appearing to signal the end of the dollar’s reign.

但是现在俄罗斯已经证明自己可以在军事方面对抗山姆大叔，美元作为全球货币的日子可能快要到头了。其他国家更有可能打破制裁，投资俄罗斯来保护本国货币的稳定。更重要的是，各国现在都知道，如果他们选择出售美元，他们可以向俄罗斯寻求军事保护来对抗美国。所以乌克兰危机似乎预示着美元统治地位的终结。

Warren Eckels

Related

Is it fair to say the US dollar is backed foremost on military power, or is it backed by economic activity?

美元的地位主要是由军事力量支撑的，这样说公平吗？抑或是由经济活动支撑的呢？

It is backed by the fact that we paid every debt we took out since the Revolution in 1785–1783. It is also backed by a public that hates inflation so much that governments fall for not controlling it…we have just administered a stern dose of interest rate increases to keep the rate below 10% at the risk of disrupting our post-Covid recovery.

The dollar rising despite the introduction of petrorubles by Russia sweetened with discounts on oil purchases shows the fallacy of the petrodollar theory.

事实证明，自1783-1785年革命以来，我们偿还了所有债务。我们得到了公众的支持，公众非常厌恶通货膨胀，有些政府因为没能控制好通货膨胀的问题而被迫下台……我们刚刚实施了严厉的加息措施，将利率保持在10%以下，否则可能会打击新冠疫情过后的经济复苏。

尽管俄罗斯推出了石油卢布，采购石油还有折扣，但美元仍在升值，这表明石油美元理论是错误的。

Charles F. Lee

No!

Today the United Stated likely still have the strongest military with an obscene budget of $800 billion (greater than the military spending of the next six or seven nations) and about 800 overseas bases.

不！

现如今美国也许仍然拥有最强大的军事力量，拥有8000亿美元的预算（比紧随其后的六七个国家的军费开支总和还要多）和大约800个海外基地。

HOWEVER:

•      it had made many powerful enemies including Russia, Iran and China and these countries are coming together to take on the United States;

•      because it spends so much on its military and on overseas based to the detriment of its economy - infrastructure, education, investments - the US is weakening at a very fast pace and domestically its society is now on the verge of a breakdown.

•      consequence of the US weaponizing the USD, countries of the world are now de- dollarizing. The pace over the last few months have been fast and furious. Together with its already weak economy, this will likely caused the collapsed of the US economy.

但是：

•美国树敌众多，包括俄罗斯、伊朗和中国在内的国家正联手和美国展开较量；

•美国在军事和海外基地上花费太多，损害了本国经济——基础设施、教育、投资——美国正在以非常快的速度衰弱，国内社会现在已濒于崩溃的边缘。

•美国将美元武器化的后果是，世界各国现在都在去美元化。过去几个月的步伐是快速而激烈的。再加上美国业已疲软的经济，这很可能导致美国经济的崩溃。

The TOTALITY of all this is that the US is now longer powerful enough to avoid its fate and will not be able to prevent the de-dollarization of the USD. The United States have simply MADE too many enemies, including making enemies out of allies. Even traditional allies like France and Saudi Arabia are now starting to use the Yuan for trade.

总而言之，美国现在已经不再强大到可以逆转自己的宿命，也无法阻止去美元化的趋势。美国树敌太多了，把盟友变成了敌人。就连法国和沙特阿拉伯这样的传统盟国现在也开始使用人民币进行贸易了。

The consequence of it is that we are likely to see the breakdown of civil society in the United States as Americans go hungry and desperate.

其后果就是，随着美国人陷入饥饿和绝望，我们可能会见证美国公民社会的崩溃。

Mia Brown

Not really. Since the begng of this year, the actual actions of "de-dollarization" in various countries have become more intensive.

不是这样的。今年以来，各国“去美元化”的动作更加密集了。

In recent years, many countries have launched different measures to strengthen local currency settlement and reduce the use of US dollars in international trade and investment. As emerging economies, oil-producing countries in the Middle East and even Europe try to innovate cross-border payment and settlement mechanisms, sign bilateral currency agreements, and promote the diversification of foreign exchange reserves, the pace of global "de-dollarization" is accelerating.

近年来，很多国家都采取了不同的措施，加强本币结算，减少在国际贸易和投资中使用美元。随着新兴经济体、中东乃至欧洲产油国尝试创新跨境支付结算机制，签署双边货币协议，推动外汇储备多元化，全球“去美元化”的步伐正在加快。

According to incomplete statistics, including Brazil, Malaysia, Ghana, Russia, France, Australia, etc., countries that are seeking currency diversification in international trade settlement have spread across five continents.

"De-dollarization" is driven by multiple reasons, but in the final analysis, it is still because the United States is going against globalization and abusing financial hegemony.

据不完全统计，包括巴西、马来西亚、加纳、俄罗斯、法国、澳大利亚等，在国际贸易中尝试多种货币结算的国家已经遍布五大洲。

“去美元化”有多重原因，但归根到底还是因为美国反对全球化，滥用金融霸权。

To use a Chinese idiom to describe the United States is: "自食其果”： It means that one has done something bad and one is harmed or punished.

用一个中国成语来形容美国就是：自食其果，意思是做了坏事，就要受到惩罚。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

The answer is that the US dollar is the currency of choice because the U.S. dollar is considered to be reliable and every debt denominated in dollars will be paid. Other reserve currencies have the same status and are used.

The biggest issue is what happens when things go wrong on the global stage? The U.S. is seen as a safe haven in riskier times, more so than any other currency.

我的答案是：美元还是首选货币，因为各国认为美元是可靠的，所有以美元计价的债务都会得到偿还。其他储备货币也有同样的地位。

最大的问题是，如果全球舞台上出现问题，会发生什么？风险较高时，美国就被视为安全的避风港，比其他任何货币都更受各国欢迎。

Can that change? Yes.

This is exactly what US Republicans have been screwing around with. If they blow up U.S. credibility? It will certainly effect US reserve currency status.

会出现改变吗？是的。

这就是美和党人一直瞎折腾的。如果他们终于搞烂了美国的信誉会怎样？肯定会影响到美元的储备货币地位。

on Diplomacy & Warfare

It has much less to do with the strength of the US military than the stability, faith and credit of the US economy and governance. When other countries, institutions and citizens believe in the security and strength of American institutions, banks and financial systems, they store their wealth in the US, investing in American industries, enterprises, real estates, debt obligations and other assets.

这和美国军事实力的关系不大，和美国经济和治理的稳定性、信心和信誉的关系更大。如果其他国家、机构和公民相信美国机构、银行和金融体系的安全性和实力，他们就会把财富存放在美国，投资于美国的工业、企业、房地产、债务和其他资产。

Naturally, they can also store their wealth in other fiat currency based on their trust of other governments and in precious metals (gold, platinum, silver) or cryptocurrency (Bitcoins, Ethereum, Stable-coins, others). What do you think are their long-term security and/or viability?

当然，他们也可以基于对其他政府的信任，用其他法定货币持有财富资产，也可以存于贵金属（黄金、铂、银）或加密货币（比特币、以太坊、稳定币等）中。你认为它们的长期安全性和持续性如何呢？