Do Vietnamese think that Vietnam will be more developed than Thailand in 10 years?

越南人认为10年后越南会比泰国更发达吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Rafael S. Phillips

That's a tough question to answer.

On one hand, Vietnam has made great strides in recent years towards economic development and modernization.

The country is now considered an upper-middle income economy with strong growth potential, and the government has implemented several initiatives to promote further progress.

这是一个很难回答的问题。

一方面，越南近年来在经济发展和现代化方面取得了长足的进步。

越南现在被视为一个具有强大增长潜力的中高收入经济体，政府也实施了几项措施来促进越南经济的进一步进展。

On the other hand, Thailand is already quite developed compared to many of its neighbors in Southeast Asia and continues to be a leader in terms of infrastructure investment and foreign direct investment attraction.

Ultimately it's hard to say which country will be more developed 10 years from now as there are so many factors at play that could influence this outcome - such as political stability, economic policies, technological advancements etc..

However if current trends continue then I think both countries have good prospects for continued growth over the next decade!

另一方面，跟许多东南亚邻国相比，泰国是相当发达的经济体，在基础设施投资和外国直接投资吸引力方面处于领先地位。

所以，10年后这两个国家中究竟哪个会更发达，是很难预测的事，有很多因素都可能影响这一结果—比如政治稳定、经济政策、技术进步等。

不过如果保持目前的趋势，我认为两国在未来十年都拥有良好的持续增长前景！

Long Thanh

To be honest, we dont see Thailand as our goal.

We always make it clear: we will develop like this or like that in 5 years or 10 years, but we do not develop past this country or that country.

We are simply trying to better ourselves, no need to better than anyone.

Be benevolent and tolerant and you will be happy, dear.

老实说，我们并没有把泰国视为我们的发展目标。

我们对自己的发展目标十分清晰：我们会在5年或10年内发展成这样或发展成那样，但我们不会说我们要超过这个国家或超过那个国家。

我们只想把自己国家建设得越来越好，没有必要一定要跟谁来作比较。

秉持仁慈和宽容的心态，你就会幸福。

Kitti Pakasiri

As a Thai, I think Vietnam could be more developed than Thailand. However, I just dont understand why a lot of Vietnamese like to compare his/her country with other country. This will provoke bitter relationship with others. For me, I believe that development in either country will be beneficial for the other.

作为一个泰国人，我认为越南有可能超过泰国。但我不明白的是为什么很多越南人喜欢把他/她的国家跟其他国家做比较。这种比较会破坏双方的关系。对我来说，我相信任何一个国家的发展都会促进另一个国家的发展。

Suttichart Denpreuktham

Probably not.

I did a simple calculation based on Japanese economic miracle “income doubling” plan which made an assumption that if they want to double the income of the country within 10 years time, they will need to make a GDP growth on average 10 percent per year.

Vietnam GDP growth rate is actually much lower than that but assuming that they manage to make that kind of growth, their GDP in 2017 is 239 billion USD, using compound interest calculator, they will reach around 620 billion USD in 10 years.

可能不会。

我根据日本经济奇迹“收入翻倍”计划做了一个简单的推算，该计划提出一个假设，如果他们想在10年内让国家的收入翻倍，每年的GDP增长率需要达到平均10%的水平。

越南的GDP增长率实际上远低于此，但假设他们能够实现这种增长，根据2017年2390亿美元的GDP水平，用复利计算器可以推算出他们10年内的GDP可以达到6200亿美元左右。

Thailand 2017 GDP is 455 billion, GDP growth rate is around 4 percent (more or less) per year. If we assuming that this 4 percent growth rate is true (and that we didn't burn ourselves down to the ground yet), the GDP will be 666 billion USD in 10 years.

So 10 years probably not quite enough for them to surpass Thailand (and this is a very optimistic estimation as in reality their growth is about 7 percent.) However, if they maintain that level of growth for even a couple of years more, they will most likely surpass Thailand in raw economic power.

泰国2017年的GDP规模是4550亿，GDP增长率约为每年4%。如果我们假设增长率就是4%，10年后GDP将达到6660亿美元。

所以10年的时间可能不足以让越南超过泰国(但这是非常乐观的估计了，越南的实际增长率仅为7%左右)。不过如果他们能够保持这种增长速度，再多几年他们的经济实力就很有可能超过泰国了。

Hoàng Hà Nguyên Vĩnh

Not possible unless Thailand face major setbacks and depression in a decade or more. Which is possible , but not guaranteed and a depression will also likely affect Viet Nam to.

Political instability and military intervention into the political scene could make or break Thailand identity as a country. Because chaos would badly affect tourism and entertainment industry safety and growth.

Viet Nam could beat Thailand in agriculture , especially tea , coffee and rice export. However , the rest isn’t up to the task.

这不可能，除非泰国在未来十年或更长时间内遭受重大打击和萧条。有可能的，但不绝对，因为萧条也可能会影响越南。

政治不稳定和对军事干政可能会破坏泰国的国家形象。因为社会混乱会严重影响旅游业和娱乐业的安全和发展。

越南在农业方面可以胜过泰国，尤其是在茶叶、咖啡和大米出口等方面，但其余领域无法打败泰国。

Dzung Le

How you define about “developed” ?

In 10 years, ie. 2029.

Vietnam has airport and road network nearly completed.

But it’s not the case for metro, railway or highspeed railway.

I think it takes 10 years more for Vietnam to reach the current Thailand leverage is optimistic.

But I don’t expect that Thailand would stay still.

你所谓的“发达”具体指什么呢？

十年内，那就是说2029前喽.

届时，越南的机场和公路网络应该就基本建好了。

但地铁、铁路或高速铁路还不太可能。

我认为，乐观一点的话，越南还需要再10年的时间才能达到泰国目前的水平。

但我认为泰国不会原地踏步，停滞不前。

Nhung Truong

I remember reading an article which said Thailand urged people to develop fast as Vietnam was catching up. It was like 20 years ago. And Vietnam is not there yet. I myself don’t think 10 years is enough to seal the gap but it’s quite hard to predict the future. 20 years ago I didn’t think I would have a fifth of what I have now. And last year, no one could see this nasty pandemic coming…

我记得我看过一篇文章，说泰国敦促民众快速发展，不然越南要迎头赶上了。那已经是20年前的事了，到现在越南还没赶超泰国。我认为10年时间不足以让越南迎头赶上，但未来会怎样，真的很难预料。20年前，我压根不敢想象自己能拥有现在五分之一的资产。去年，也没有人能预见到这场可怕的疫情会降临……

Duy Trần

GDP is just one of the macro indicators to evaluate a country's economy. Vietnam only needs to re-evaluate GDP according to the recommendations of the IMF, GDP is no longer far from Thailand (remember, in 30 years of reform, Vietnam will re-evaluate GDP in 2020. Now look quantitatively and qualitatively at Vietnam's macro expenditures compared to Thailand. Output Vietnam's industries from cement, iron and steel, electronics, and electricity consumption have all surpassed that of Thailand. Total export turnover of Vietnam also surpassed Thailand, total state budget revenue of Vietnam is currently equal to Thailand (strangely, GDP is lower but total state budget revenue is approxmately the same).

GDP只是衡量一个国家经济的宏观指标之一。越南只需要根据国际货币基金组织的建议重新评估GDP，越南的GDP和泰国的差距已经缩小了（经过30年的改革，越南将在2020年重新评估GDP。现在，我们可以从数量和质量上比较一下越南与泰国的宏观支出。越南的水泥、钢铁、电子和电力消费等工业的产量都超过了泰国。越南的总出口额也超过了泰国，目前越南的国家预算收入总额与泰国相当(奇怪的是，越南的GDP低一些，但国家预算收入总额大致相同）。

In terms of highway infrastructure, Vietnam is far larger than Thailand and in the next 5 years will surpass Thailand when the Vietnamese government invests heavily in infrastructure. Compare the 20 largest cities of Vietnam and the 20 largest cities of Thailand to see which country is more prosperous.

在公路基础设施方面，越南的规模远超泰国，未来5年，如果越南政府在基础设施方面投入大量资金，越南就会超过泰国。对比一下越南和泰国的前20大城市，看看哪个国家更繁荣。

Regarding Thailand's foreign investment in Vietnamese enterprises, they are only small businesses or have entered a saturated state such as Sabeco, dawn plastic. If it is said to invest and earn high profits in Vietnamese enterprises, Thai friends should learn from Singapore and the Japanese and Koreans, including FII and FDI investment. These countries invest in key businesses of the Vietnamese economy from retail, consumption, banking...

泰国对越南企业的外商投资都集中在小企业，或Sabeco、dawn plastic这类已经没有更大发展空间的企业了。如果要投资越南企业，赚取高额利润，泰国朋友应该学习新加坡和日本韩国，包括境外机构投资和外商直接投资。这些国家投资越南经济的核心领域，包括零售、消费、银行等……

Krasin Pongtornpipat

Vietnam may take more or less time than some countries in SE Asia to fully develop. However eventually major countries in the region will all become advanced economies. These countries are on par with each other. Habits and culture may delay development process of a particular country, but not stop it.

越南要完成全面发展，所需的时间可能比东南亚某些国家多，也可能少。但该地区的主要国家最后都将成为发达经济体。这些国家彼此不相上下。习惯和文化可能会拖慢一个国家的发展进程，但无法阻挠发展的趋势。

Woody Supan

Yes, I think that Vietnam makes progress ahead of us in terms of startup and business development for buding entrepreneur. But, processes involve in producing new groups of people who are willing to develop expertise and skills are infancy stage.

是的，我认为越南在初创企业和商业发展方面领先于我们泰国。但是，他们在培养学习专业知识和技能的新生群体这方面，仍处于初始阶段。

But, I have no ideas what direction they are about to develop. I just see from data report and assume form numbers that we still improve even if we have no ideas in real and bigger pictures.

但我不知道他们会朝着哪个方向发展。从数据报告和表格数字中，我发现泰国一直在进步。

Armand S

Vietnam is very far away behind, I would say 20 to 30 years. Just spend a day in bangkok and then in saigon, you'll see the difference. Vietnam will always face higher corruption and political issues. Honeslty, after having spent my whole life between these two countries, I don't see vn catch up with thailand at any point in the future. Real estate is crashing hard in 2023 in Vietnam, projects started 10 years ago are still not finished for road infrastructure and transportation. Internet is very slow compared to most of the world. And the list goes on and on.

越南比泰国落后不少呢，我认为他们落后了20到30年。很简单，如果你在曼谷呆上一天，再去西贡呆上一天，你就会发现两国的不同支出。越南一直面临比泰国更为严重的腐败和政治问题。老实说，我在这两个国家住了一辈子了，我认为越南是永远赶不上泰国的。越南的房地产在2023年严重崩盘，10年前就开工的道路基础设施和运输项目至今仍未完工。越南的互联网比世界上大多数地方都慢得多。这样的例子不胜枚举。

Banh Dau

Using the 70/rate rule to calculate how many years it takes to double the economy, Vietnam’s GDP and Thailand’s GDP at current growth rates will be on par in about 35 years.

So the chance for surpassing Thailand in 10 years is extremely low.

Of course if Vietnam can reduce the rampant corruption and speed up to 10% or more grow, and Thailand for some reason slows down further, then it would take less than 35 years, but that’s a big if.

我们可以套用70/增长率的公式来计算国家经济实现翻倍需要多少年的时间。如果按照目前两国各自的增长率，越南和泰国的GDP将在大约35年后达到相同的水平。

因此，越南在未来10年内超过泰国的可能性非常小。

当然，如果越南能够治理猖獗的腐败现象，将增长速度提高到10%或以上，而泰国因为某个原因经济发展放缓，那么可能用不了35年的时间越南就能赶超泰国，但注意了，这只是“如果”。

Rand.

Vietnamese goal is not Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines…or for whole ASEAN. Their first step is look at South Korea, Singapore, Japan and …more after that.

越南的发展目标不在于泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾，也不在整个东盟。越南第一个发展目标是韩国、新加坡、日本等国。

Anond Jarenmoon

In real world Vietnam must build more power plant and more infrastructure plus 30 years waiting period for startup business growth to corporate size (after you have done all infrastructure project)

40-50 years at lease on one condition “ Thailand must do not anything along 30 years"

在现实世界中，越南必须建造更多的发电厂和基础设施，再耐心等上30年时间，才能让初创企业发展到大型企业的规模(首先要完成所有基础设施项目)。

我认为越南需要至少40-50年的时间才能赶超泰国，但还有一个前提条件：“泰国在30年内啥都不能干”。

Anthony Tran

Most Vietnamese people actually don't really … care about Thailand's economic development or don't really notice. They care about Thai as a cheap heaven for tourism, wonderful snacks and amazing massage vendors. For the economic part, Thai needs to be really remarkable like China or Singapore then yeah.

大多数越南人并不关心泰国的经济发展，甚至压根都没有留心过。他们只知道泰国是一个性价比很高的旅游天堂，有很多美食和令人叫绝的按摩店。在经济方面，泰国要变成中国或新加坡那样，才算真的令人瞩目。