Quora：印度经济如何才能实现21世纪初的中国发展速度

How can Indian economy grows at the rate at which Chinese economy grew in early 2000s?

印度经济如何才能实现21世纪初的中国发展速度？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Farhan Shaikh

The growth rate of the Chinese economy in the early 2000s was fueled by a combination of factors, including export-led growth, a massive infrastructure spending program, and liberalization of the economy. To replicate this kind of growth, the Indian economy would need to undertake a similar set of policies and reforms.

21世纪初中国的经济增长受到了一系列因素的推动，包括以出口为导向带来的增长、大规模的基础设施投资计划和经济自由化。要复制这种增长，印度经济也需要采取类似的政策和改革。

One of the key factors that contributed to China's growth was its focus on export-oriented manufacturing, which helped the country to tap into the global demand for low-cost goods. India has also been working to increase its exports, but it may need to take more focused measures to improve its competitiveness in global markets. This could involve measures such as improving infrastructure, reducing bureaucratic red tape, and investing in skills and education.

推动中国经济增长的一个关键因素是中国对以出口为导向的制造业的重视，这使得中国成功对接全球对低成本商品的需求。印度也一直在努力增加出口，但可能需要采取更有针对性的措施来提高其在全球市场上的竞争力。这可能涉及改善基础设施、简化政府程序、投资技能和教育等多项措施。

Another factor that contributed to China's growth was its massive infrastructure spending program, which helped to modernize the country's transportation and communication networks. India also needs to invest in infrastructure to support economic growth, particularly in areas such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications.

推动中国经济增长的另一个因素是大规模的基础设施投资计划，中国因此实现了交通和通信网络的现代化。印度还需要对基础设施进行投资来助力经济增长，尤其是在交通、能源和电信等领域。

In addition, China also undertook significant economic reforms in the early 2000s, which included liberalizing its trade and investment policies and reducing bureaucratic barriers to doing business. India could similarly benefit from reforms that promote greater openness and ease of doing business, such as simplifying regulations and reducing corruption.

此外，中国在21世纪初还进行了重大的经济改革，包括开放贸易和投资政策，简化政府审核，提高宜商便利度。印度同样可以从促进开放和宜商便利的改革中受益，例如简化法规、打击腐败。

Ray Comeau

Will India's economy catch up to China's?

Maybe. It will depend on (1) how long can India’s GDP rate of growth exceed China’s rate of growth and (2) the absence of a catastrophe to either India or China.

A number of organizations has projected national GDPs up to 2050. Here are two - by IMF and The Economist. This is a long time frame for predicting. So what they predict for 34 years from now based on their analysis is China will economically still be larger then India whether measured by PPP or Market Exchange Rate

印度经济能赶上中国吗？

有可能，取决于：

(1)印度的GDP增长率能在多长时间内超过中国；

(2)印度和中国都不会遭遇灾难。

一些组织预测了2050年各国的GDP表现。以下是国际基金组织和《经济学人》的两个预测结果。这是对未来很长时间的预测，两个组织根据自己的分析预测，从现在开始的34年里，无论是以购买力平价还是以市场汇率来衡量，中国的经济规模都会超过印度。

Awdhesh Singh

Why India can not progress as well as China?

Imagine that you are travelling from one part of the city to another part of the city in India, and there is a busy crossing on the way.

Now, this is how the road crossing is done in the Indian way.

为什么印度不能像中国那样发展？

想象一下，你在印度某城市的一个地方到另一个地方，遇到交通繁忙的十字路口。

印度人是这样过马路的。

Now, if you are in China, and you have to go through a similar crossing, it may more look like this,

现在，如果你在中国过十字路口，可能是这样的。

Where do you think, people would be moving faster?

The systems in China are well in place that allows people to move faster and reach their destinations quickly.

The systems in India are poor or almost nonexstent that blocks people’ way of progress all the time.

The system and behaviour of the people on traffic symbolise the mindset of the nation and people.

你觉得哪边的人能走得更快？

中国的交通系统规划很合理，人们可以更快地移动，迅速到达目的地。

印度的交通系统规划很混乱，有也几乎等于没有，一直阻碍着人们的进步。

一个国家的交通系统和民众的行为就反映着一个国家和民众的心态。

There is also no hope for change since this congested, inefficient and corrupt system suits the people in power making them special and VIP.

These people would never like to develop a system that runs so smoothly that they become redundant and lose their VIP status.

Moreover, Indian people don’t understand the importance of an efficient system to improve society or nation.

想要改变也毫无希望，因为这个拥挤、低效和腐败的系统非常适合当权者，能突显出他们的特别和重要。

这些人永远不会愿意开发一个运行平稳的系统，否则他们就变成多余的人，失去特权地位了。

此外，印度人也不理解一个好的系统对改善社会或国家有多重要。

Vardhaman Sakhlecha

Can India Surpass China's economy by 2050?

No. Economic growth is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product. (GDP)

India’s nominal GDP is about $2.3 Trillion (2016) and China’s nominal GDP is about $11.4 Trillion (2016).

There are varying forecast about India and China’s growth rate. So lets assume the best case scenario for India at 7% p.a. and an moderate growth scenario for China at 4%

到2050年，印度经济能超过中国吗？

不可能。一国的经济增长通常是用国内生产总值来衡量的。(国内生产总值)

对印度和中国的经济增长速度有不同的预测。假设印度的最佳情况是年增长率为7%，中国则以4%的普通速度增长。

Assuming India grows at 7% p.a. till 2050, its GDP would at best touch $23 Trillion. China, if it grows at 4% p.a., would be able to touch a GDP $43 Trillion by 2050.

So, no India will not surpass Chinese economy by 2050 unless something extraordinary takes place more than ordinary number of times in the next few decades.

China was able to take advantage of globalization when manufacturing shifted from west to the east but this advantage doesn’t remain with the rise of protectionism. India would have to work at finding alternate growth models.

假设到2050年，印度每年都是以7%的速度增长，印度的GDP最高可达23万亿美元。如果中国以4%的速度增长，到2050年，中国的GDP将达到43万亿美元。

所以，印度到2050年也不可能超过中国经济，除非发生某些特殊情况。

当制造业从西方转移到东方时，中国抓住了全球化的机会，但随着保护主义的兴起，这个机会不复存在。印度必须努力寻找其他替代方案。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

How would you compare India's economy with China's economy?

你如何比较印度经济和中国经济？

14 Parameters :

14个决定因素：

GDP ($ Nominal)

China - $16.214 Trillion

India - $ 2.796 Trillion

** US is #1 with $ 23.97 Trillion

China leads by 5.798 times

# 1

国内生产总值(名义)

中国—16.214万亿美元

印度—2.796万亿美元

**美国以23.97万亿美元排名全球第一

中国领先印度5.798倍

Inequality Index (Weighted)

China - 639.0

India - 2044.0

** Denmark is #1 with 233.0

India has 3.2 times more Income inequality than China

# 2

不平等指数(加权)

中国—639.0

印度—2044.0

**丹麦以233.0排名全球第一

印度的收入不平等是中国的3.2倍

Consumer Spending (Actual US$)

China - $ 15.77 Trillion

India - $ 1.72 Trillion

** US is #1 with $ 20.79 Trillion

China is 9.17 times a potentially more attractive market than India

# 3

消费者支出(实际美元)

中国—15.77万亿美元

印度—1.72万亿美元

**美国以20.79万亿美元排名全球第一

中国市场的潜在吸引力是印度的9.17倍

Minimum Professional Income

China - Yuan 121500 or $18634

India - Rs. 456,000 or $6042

** Luxembourg is #1 with $ 264000

An Average Chinese has 3 times the buying Capacity of a USD product than an Average Indian.

# 4

最低职业收入

中国—人民币121500元或18634美元

印度—45.6万卢比或6042美元

**卢森堡以264000美元排名全球第一

一个普通中国人对美元产品的购买力是印度人的3倍。

Measured Industrial Productivity (MIP)

China - 63.4

India - 25.4

An Average Chinese is 2.5 times more productive than an average Indian

** China is highest in the world. Bangladesh has 39.6.

# 5

工业生产力(MIP)

中国—63.4

印度—25.4

平均每个中国人的生产力是印度人的2.5倍

**中国的工业生产力是全球最高的。孟加拉国也有39.6。

Balance of Trade

China - Trade Surplus of $ 563.2 Billion a year and Average Surplus of $ 401.2 Billion a Year (5 Yr Average)

India - Trade Deficit of $ 183.4 Billion a year and Average deficit of $ 170.9 Billion (5 Yr Average)

China Exports, India imports

** China leads the world

# 6

贸易差额

中国—贸易顺差为5632亿美元/年，平均顺差为4012亿美元/年(5年平均值)

印度—贸易逆差为1834亿美元/年，平均逆差为1709亿美元/年(5年平均值)

中国出口，印度进口

**中国是全球第一贸易出口国

Global Export Fraction ($)

China - 29.1%

India - 1.71%

China contributes to Global Exports in USD at a rate which is 17 times more than India

** China leads the World since 2021

# 7

全球出口份额(美元)

中国—29.1%

印度—1.71%

以美元计算，中国对全球出口的贡献是印度的17倍

**中国自2021年以来一直是全球第一贸易出口国

Global Export Fraction (Volume MT)

China - 45.32%

India - 2.54%

China contributes to Global Exports by Volume at rate which is 17.84 times more than India

** China leads the world

# 8

全球出口份额(公吨)

中国—45.32%

印度—2.54%

中国对全球出口的贡献是印度的17.84倍

**中国是全球第一贸易出口国

Percentage of Middle Class

China - 48.6%

India - 25.4%

China have nearly double the middle class as India does.

** Sweden with 71.6% is #1

# 9

中产阶级占比

中国—48.6%

印度—25.4%

中国的中产阶级规模几乎是印度的两倍。

**瑞典以71.6%排名全球第一

#10

Percentage of Welfare Dependents (Extrapolated from 2011 Census)

China - 1.94%

India - 16.64%

India has almost 8.5 times more welfare dependents than China

** Somalia with 41.7% is #1

# 10

社会福利供养比例(根据2011年人口普查推算)

中国—1.94%

印度—16.64%

依赖社会福利的印度人口几乎是中国的8.5倍

**索马里以41.7%排名全球第一

#11

Resource Potential Rating

China - 6.79 (14th Ranked in the World)

India - 2.28 (47th Ranked in the World)

** Russia is #1 with 10.35

# 11

资源潜力评级

中国—6.79(世界排名第14位)

印度—2.28(世界排名第47位)

**俄罗斯以10.35排名全球第一

#12

Government Debt

China - 51.4% GDP

India - 90.8% GDP

Chinese Govt is less indebted to their public than the Indian Govt

** US leads with 117.5%

# 12

政府债务

中国—GDP的51.4%

印度—GDP的90.8%

中国对公众的负债比印度政府少

**美国以117.5%的负债率排名全球第一

#13

Total Debt

China - 159.7% of GDP

India - 92.1% of GDP

Chinese Corporates carry higher Debt than Indian non Govt entities.

** Japan leads with 224%

# 13

总债务

中国—占GDP的159.7%

印度—占GDP的92.1%

中国企业的债务高于印度非政府机构。

**日本以224%排名全球第一

#14

Foreign Currency Circulation (Global)

Chinese Yuan - $ 452 Billion

Indian Rupee - $ 138 Billion

Despite circulation being restricted the Yuan is almost 3.5 more circulated than the INR.

Thats the basic comparison between India and China.

# 14

外币流通(全球)

中国人民币—4520亿美元

印度卢比—1380亿美元

尽管流通受到限制，但人民币的流通几乎比印度卢比多3.5倍。

以上就是印度和中国之间的基本比较。

Ismail Bashmori

Will China’s economy continue to boom?

I'm not worried about China's economy whatsoever. I've almost lost interest in writing about it. It's sorta like how your freezer keeps your food frozen without you thinking about it. China's economy is basically under the best and most skilled and sophisticated management possible in the universe. It's on some kind of Einsteinian autopilot. Hell yes it's gonna keep growing, the distribution of wealth will get better, the standard of living will keep going up, education, technology, Infrastructure will transform, and it'll green up and cut its carbon emissions, and get more interconnected and sanction-proof too. All while I sleep and watch TV, and argue with idiots on Quora.

中国经济会一直繁荣吗？

我并不担心中国的经济。我差点都懒得提笔写这段回答了。

你的这个问题就像在问：在你没有操心的情况下，你家的冰箱是怎么让食物保冷的。

中国经济处在全世界上最好、最熟练、最精妙的管理之下。这几乎就是爱因斯坦式的自动驾驶装置了。

中国经济当然会继续增长，中国的财富分配也会更加合理，中国人民的生活水平会继续提高，教育、技术、基础设施会越来越先进，中国会实现绿色发展，减少碳排放，加强互联互通，免受制裁干扰。

这一切都会在我睡觉的时候，看电视的时候，在Quora上和笨蛋争论的时候悄然发生。