If the US and Chinese economies are fully decoupled, and China will definitely abandon the use of the US dollar, what will be the impact of the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status?

如果美中经济完全脱钩，中国肯定会弃用美元，那么会给美元的全球储备货币地位造成什么影响？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Larry Paise

What does it mean, in your mind, to “fully decouple?”

Today, The US exports about $200B/year, and China exports nearly $600B back to the US.

Contracts with US companies are denominated in US dollars.

China’s estimated US portfolio (bonds, Treasury notes, Stocks, dollars, etc.) is between $3 and $3.5T.

So, I ask again, what does “fully decoupling” even look like?

你所谓的“完全脱钩”是什么意思呢？

目前，美国每年出口约2000亿美元，中国对美国出口近6000亿美元。

中国和美国企业签订的合同都是以美元计价的。

据估计，中国在美国的投资(包含债券、国债、股票、美元等)规模已达3 - 3.5万亿美元。

所以我再问一次，你所谓的“完全脱钩”究竟会是什么样的呢？

Alex Rowan

You do realise that China holds $3 trillion of US Treasury debt? That the interest the US pays on all that debt is a major source of income for the chinese?

Abandoning the US dollar would be like voluntarily taking a 20% cut in GNP. Ain’t gonna happen.

你知道中国持有的美国国债高达3万亿美元吗？美国为这些国债支付的利息成了中国的主要收入来源？

放弃美元就意味着放弃20%的国民生产总值。这是绝无可能的。

Brett Kriger

If China abandons the use of the US dollar as a reserve currency, it would have a significant impact on the US dollar's global reserve currency status. The US dollar has been able to gain and maintain its special status because of the strength of the US economy. However, countries worldwide are drop the US dollar as a result of increasing instability of the US economy. China has been making concerted efforts to promote the use of its currency, the yuan, with the aim of establishing it as a major global currency in international trade.

如果中国不再把美元当做储备货币，就会对美元的全球储备货币地位产生重大影响。美元之所以能够获得并保持美元的特殊地位，是因为美国的经济实力。但是，由于美国经济的不稳定性越来越凸显，世界各国都开始放弃美元。中国一直在竭尽全力推动人民币的普及，使其成为国际贸易中的主要结算货币。

It is important to note that there are several factors that determine a currency's status as a global reserve currency. These include economic stability, political stability, and liquidity. If China were to abandon the use of the US dollar as a reserve currency, it would likely lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and could potentially lead to a shift towards other currencies such as the euro or yen.

需要注意的是，决定一种货币能否成为全球储备货币的因素有几个，这些因素中包含经济稳定性、政治稳定性和流动性。如果中国弃用美元，可能会导致美元的需求下降，并可能导致欧元或日元等其他货币的崛起。

Alphons Ranner

China is not (!) intending to fully decouple from the US economy as that would imply a major loss of high-rated manufacturing imports and a loss of exporting Chinese goods.

As most Brics countries have experienced low output growth, with China providing some 80 % of output growth since 2003. and as moreover three of those countries are in fact stagnant commodity exporters, their economies will not be profiting very much from increased trade between themselves even if there will be new BRICS members added.

中国并没有打算跟美国经济完全脱钩，因为这么做中国就会面临高端制造业进口和中国制造出口的重大损失。

由于大多数金砖国家都经历过产出增长低迷的问题，自2003年以来，中国实现了约80%的产出增长。而金砖组织中另外三个国家的商品出口停滞不前，它们的经济也无法从彼此贸易的增加中获益很多。

So though the reserve currency status of the dollar will be reduced, it will remain the country with the most traded currency in the world. One should keep in mind that all the countries of the industrialized world (like Japan, Australia, Canada, and the 44 countries of Europe) will still maintain trade and investment relations with the US. Moreover, these countries still will have enormous know-how.

因此，尽管美元的储备货币地位会有所下降，但仍会是世界上交易额最大的货币。人们应该记住，所有工业化世界的国家（如日本、澳大利亚、加拿大和44个欧洲国家）都会跟美国保持贸易和投资关系。更何况这些国家掌握着大量的专利技术。

The NumOneStunna

China doesn't have the competence or capacity to dethrone the dollar. More importantly, the trust. You'll see. The yuan? I think not lol.

This is just propaganda that went viral in the west. Only uneducated people who don't understand global finance worry about this. The chinese sets asides billions to pay off western media, youtube, etc to make this rubbish go viral. This is how the spends its money instead if putting it in citizens pockets.

中国没有能力推番美元。更重要的是，中国得不到信任。至于人民币？我认为也不可能。

这只是中国在西方国家的宣传而已。只有那些对全球金融一窍不通的未受过教育的人才会担心这一点。中国拨款数十亿美元收买西方媒体、youtube等传播这些信息。

China will use us dollars whether they want to or not. They'll cash what they can and not stockpile thier own trash money no one wants, but gold. They hold onto American bonds because they want to make money. Anyone can buy them. If you think the yen will be anything other than toilet paper outside of china then you clearly dont understand finance. Austrailia has a better chance than china.

不论愿意与否，中国都得使用美元。他们会尽可能地变现，他们会囤积黄金，而不是那些没人要的人民币。他们持有美国国债是因为他们想赚钱。任何人都可以购买美国国债。如果你认为日元在中国以外就只是废纸而已，那么很显然，你并不懂金融。澳大利亚比中国更有可能。

Rest easy. It won't happen. Not by China at least. You can be 100% sure of that. It makes me laugh everytime I see questions like this. Lol. The US dollar is involved in 88% of global transactions.

It won't happen. Now you know. Don't worry. Besides even when countries trade in yuan they don't. It's quoted and valued off of the dollar. Lol.

If you don't understand don't worry. All you need to understand is it won't happen.

别杞人忧天了，这是不可能发生的事。至少跟中国没关系。你可以百分百相信这一点。每次我看到这种问题都会忍不住爆笑。哈哈，全球交易的88%都是用美元结算的。

这种情况是不会发生的。现在你明白了吧，不用担心。就算各国以人民币进行贸易，报价和结算也还是会用美元进行。哈哈。

如果你看不懂也没关系，记住，别瞎操心就行。你只需要明白一点，这种事不会发生。

Gray Bryan

Who cares? The “global reserve currency status” is overrated anyway. It just means that US politicians can be less responsible than would otherwise be the case. With less “forced” demand for the dollar, it will be harder for the US to continue spending more than they take in.

It will mean that we have to pay more in interest rates to get anyone to take our debt and that means that it becomes more and more expensive to fund the interest on the debt.

谁在乎呢？“全球储备货币的地位”被高估了。这只是意味着，美国政客可以更无所顾忌，不负责任。随着全球对美元的“被动”需求的减少，美国会面临入不敷出的局面。

这意味着我们必须支付更高的利息来让别人接手我们的债务，这意味着我们的债务利息负担会越来越重。

The only sane response to that is to start spending less.

However, China isn’t going to “fully decouple” from the dollar. We still buy a lot from them and the dollar is still the strongest currency in the world. It’s OK for other currencies to step up a bit.

对此唯一的理智做法是减少支出。

但是，中国不会与美元“完全脱钩”。我们还要从中国进口很多商品，美元仍然是世界上最强劲的货币，但其他货币略微升值是可以的。

Lucas Williams

The US dollar is unlikely to be replaced as the top global reserve currency any time soon. No other currency, like the Euro or Chinese Yuan, is in a position to fill that role. And the geopolitical power of the US, the relative stability of the US economy and financial system still make the dollar attractive to global investors and central banks.

If the US and Chinese economies decouple and China abandons the US dollar, it could significantly impact the dollar's status as the global reserve currency:

美元作为全球最大储备货币的地位不太可能在短期内被取而代之。没有哪个货币，不管是欧元还是人民币，能够填补美元的这一角色。此外，美国的地缘政治实力、美国经济和金融体系的相对稳定，所以美元对全球投资者和各国央行仍然具有吸引力。

如果美国和中国经济脱钩，中国弃用美元，这可能会对美元作为全球储备货币的地位产生重大影响：

• It would reduce global demand for US dollars. China holds over $1 trillion in US dollar reserves. If China reduces its dollar holdings, it could weaken the dollar.

• Other countries may follow China's lead. As China is the 2nd largest economy, its monetary policies influence global markets. If China diversifies from the dollar, other countries may do the same. This could further diminish the role of the dollar in global trade and finance.

•会减少全球对美元的需求。中国持有超过1万亿美元的美元储备。如果中国减持美元，可能会削弱美元。

•其他国家可能会效仿中国的做法。中国是世界第二大经济体，中国的货币政策影响着全球市场。如果中国从美元转向多种货币，其他国家可能也会这么做。这可能会进一步削弱美元在全球贸易和金融中的作用。

• The US would lose economic leverage. Currently, the dollar's reserve status allows the US to impose sanctions on countries like Iran, Venezuela, etc. But if the dollar declines, the US loses that leverage on the global stage.

• US interest rates may rise. Currently, strong global demand for dollars keeps US interest rates low. But if that demand falls, interest rates would likely rise, increasing the US government's borrowing costs.

•美国会失去经济影响力。目前，美元的储备货币地位让美国可以对伊朗、委内瑞拉等国实施制裁。但如果美元贬值，美国就将失去在全球舞台上的影响力。

•美国利率可能会上升。目前，全球对美元的强劲需求使美国利率保持在低位。但如果这种需求下降，美元利率可能就会随之上升，增加美国政府的借贷成本。

• Inflation may increase. A weaker dollar could drive up the prices of imported goods and commodities in the US. This could fuel higher inflation reducing Americans' purchasing power.

• The US economy may slow down. Higher interest rates and inflation, combined with a weaker dollar would likely dampen US economic growth over the long run. Slower growth means lower job and wage growth.

•美国的通胀可能会上升。美元走软可能会推高美国进口商品和大宗商品的价格。这可能会加剧通胀，降低美国人的购买力。

•美国经济可能放缓。从长远来看，更高的利率和通胀，加上美元走软，可能会抑制美国的经济增长。增长放缓意味着就业和工资增长也将放缓。

So, while decoupling with China could significantly impact the dollar, most economists think the dollar would remain the dominant global reserve currency for the foreseeable future, albeit weakened. The transition to a multi-currency system as a global reserve asset may take decades.

所以，尽管与中国脱钩可能会对美元产生重大影响，但大多数经济学家认为，在可预见的未来美元仍将是占据主导地位的全球储备货币。而向多货币体系过渡可能需要数十年的时间。

World Blockchain Institute

If the US and Chinese economies were fully decoupled and China were to abandon the use of the US dollar, it would likely have a significant impact on the US dollar's global reserve currency status.

The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency gives the United States significant economic and geopolitical advantages. It allows the US to borrow money at lower interest rates, as other countries hold US dollars as a store of value. It also gives the US greater influence over the global financial system.

如果美国和中国经济完全脱钩，中国弃用美元，这可能会对美元的全球储备货币地位产生重大的影响。

美元作为全球储备货币的地位赋予了美国巨大的经济和地缘政治优势。因为其他国家持有美元作为储备资产，它允许美国以较低的利率向全世界借贷，同时也使得美国对全球金融体系拥有更大的影响力。

If China were to abandon the use of the US dollar, other countries may follow suit, reducing the global demand for US dollars. This could lead to a decrease in the value of the US dollar and an increase in inflation. It could also make it more difficult and expensive for the US government to borrow money from foreign countries.

如果中国弃用美元，其他国家可能也会效仿，减少全球对美元的需求。这可能导致美元价值的下降和通胀的上升，使得美国政府向别国借贷更加困难，成本更高。

However, it's important to note that decoupling the US and Chinese economies completely is a difficult and complex process that would likely have significant economic and political repercussions for both countries and the global economy as a whole. It's also worth noting that the US dollar's reserve currency status has been challenged before and it has remained the dominant global currency.

但是，值得注意的是，中美经济完全脱钩是一个困难和复杂的过程，可能会对两国和全球经济整体产生重大的经济和政治影响。值得注意的是，历史上美元的储备货币地位也曾遭到过挑战，但美元至今仍是全球的主导货币。

Ali O. AlShamsi

You need to understand that both countries are entangled together and with the rest of the world thanks to international trades and investments and debts that are both involved in.

If one of them cracks or sinks, it will pull the other with it.

你要明白，因为国际贸易、投资和债务，两个国家都跟世界其他国家形成了你中有我，我中有你的密切关系。

如果其中一个出问题，另一个也难以独善其身。