Jammu and Kashmir, India: In 1965, when India reached up to Lahore, why didn't it take back Pakistani Administered Kashmir?
印度查谟和克什米尔:1965年印度拿下拉合尔后为什么不“收回”巴控克什米尔?
以下是Quora网友的评论:
Balaji Viswanathan
India didn't get up to Lahore city, but held some parts of the Lahore district. While India took a sizable chunk of Pakistan's land (690 sq miles), Pakistanis did capture a part of India too (250 sq miles). To put that in context, Pakistan Administered Kashmir was 40 times the land size India was able to capture. It was simply out of question for India to capture 33,000 square miles back.
Some reasons why India had to end the war soon:
印度并没有拿下拉合尔市,只是占领了部分地区。印度占领了巴基斯坦一块很大的领土(690平方英里),巴基斯坦也占领了印度的一块土地(250平方英里)。巴控克什米尔的面积是印度当时占领的巴基斯坦领土面积的40倍。对印度来说,夺回33000平方英里根本不成问题。
但印度草草结束战争的原因有以下几个:
1. Bad economy: India was barely recovering from 1962 China war and this was brutal. 1965-66 timeframe was among the worst for the Indian economy. Famines, hunger and high inflation wrecked India and the rupee.
2. China angle: Pakistan had already become a protege of China & India was constantly afraid of China getting into the war too. Thus, a sizable chunk of air power was moved to the eastern borders. While China didn't overtly enter the 1965 war, there was a possibility. Had the war gone long enough, there might have been a uglier prospect of fighting both China & Pakistan at the same time.
1. 糟糕的经济:印度刚从1962年中印战争中恢复过来,那是一场残酷的战争。印度经济在1965年至1966年期间惨不忍睹。饥荒、饥饿和高通胀摧毁了印度和卢比。
2. 中国的视角:巴基斯坦已经成为中国的门徒,印度也一直害怕中国插手这场战争。所以印度把大部分战机转移到东部边界。虽然中国没有公开参加1965年的战争,但这种可能性始终存在。如果战争持续时间拉长,印度可能就要面临同时跟中国和巴基斯坦作战的局面。
3. Pressure from the superpowers: Both US and USSR were breathing down India's neck to end the war, as it was the side with the upper hand [it was not that hard to convince Pakistan to do so, as it was quickly losing firepower]. The superpowers had a game to play elsewhere and this game was distracting them. The India-Pakistan War of 1965
4. Not piss off the UN: India was getting into a lot of trouble with UN Security Council at that time (invasion of Goa, Kashmir issue) and it was not prudent to piss off the big brother too much.
3. 来自超级大国的压力:美国和苏联都紧盯着印度,要求印度结束战争,因为印度占了上风(巴基斯坦的武器弹药告急了)。超级大国还有别的事要操心,这场游戏分散了他们的精力。
4. 不要惹联合国生气:当时印度在联合国安理会遇到了很多麻烦(入侵果阿,克什米尔问题),惹恼老大哥可不是明智的做法。
5. Navy & Airforce weakening: India's massive coastline & China angle forced the Navy & Airforce to be spread out and have a reduced impact. While the Army was wng, Navy & Airforce were stuck in a stalemate. The Pakistan Air Force had more superior American Aircraft and their short coastline meant that they could go all in on Indian Navy. India's Navy was also unable to use INS Vikrant - the aircraft carrier.
5. 海军和空军的作战实力减弱:印度庞大的海岸线和中国的存在迫使印度将海军和空军分散开来,结果作战实力变弱了。陆军取得胜利时,海军和空军陷入了僵局。巴基斯坦空军拥有更先进的美式飞机,他们的海岸线较短,意味着他们可以全力对抗印度海军。印度海军也无法使用维克兰特号航空母舰。
6. Achieved the outcome: Gen. Ayub Khan was the aggressor and he believed in a rapid attack that would burst the "Hindu morale". He also believed that the entry of Pakistani forces into Kashmir would make the local population rise in revolution against India. Both theses were laid to rest - the Kashmiris didn't care for Pakistan & the "Hindu morale" withstood a surprise attack. Not just that, the army was also able to easily get to the cultural capital of Pakistan, Lahore. India was happy with a moral victory, although technically it was a stalemate.
6. 取得了成果:阿尤布·汗将军相信快速进攻可以摧毁“印度的士气”。他还认为,巴基斯坦军队进入克什米尔会激起当地人民起义反抗印度。这两点都被搁置了——克什米尔人不关心巴基斯坦,“印度的士气”经受住了突然袭击。不仅如此,军队还能够轻松到达巴基斯坦的文化之都拉合尔。印度很享受这种精神胜利,尽管从技术上讲,那是一场僵局。
Sandeep Sharma
Simple things that anybody will understand, things which don't need great genius, politicians will miss. One of my friend was commander-in-chief of the Indian Army. When Pakistan invaded India, this man - his name was General Chaudhri - asked permission of the Prime Minister to counter attack; it was needed, just being defensive would not help. That's a simple military strategy; if you become defensive you are already defeated. The best way is to be aggressive.
这是所有人都能理解的简单事情,不需要什么天才。我有个朋友是印度军队的总司令。巴基斯坦入侵印度时,这个人——他的名字是乔杜里将军——请求总理允许他组织反击;单靠防御没有用,必须反击。这是简单的军事策略;如果你采取防御,你就败了。最好的办法就是主动出击。
If Pakistan had invaded one part of Kashmir, Chaudhri's idea was that we invade Pakistan from four or five fronts. They will be confused, they will run amok, they will not be able to decide where they have to send their armies. Their attack will become a failure because they have to defend all the borders of their country.
But politicians! The Prime Minister, Nehru, informed him - 'Wait till 6 'o' clock in the morning.'
General Chaudhri told me that he was thrown out of the army - not publicly. Publicly he retired honorably, but he was kicked out. He was told - 'either you resign or we will throw you out.'
如果巴基斯坦入侵克什米尔,乔杜里的想法是,我们可以通过四五条战线入侵巴基斯坦。他们会感到困惑,会发狂,无法决定把军队派往何处,他们的进攻就注定失败,因为他们必须保卫自己国家的所有边界。
但是政客们!总理尼赫鲁,告诉他:“等明早6点再说。”
乔杜里将军告诉我,他被赶出了军队——秘密地。明面上他光荣地退休了,但他其实是被驱逐出来的。他接到通知:要么自己辞职,要么被赶出门。
The reason was that he attacked Pakistan at 5 'o' clock in the morning - one hour before the order. That was the right time, by 6 'o' clock, it would be sunrise, people would be awake. 5 'o' clock was the perfectly right time - everybody was asleep - to drive them crazy. And he did what he was saying - he made the whole of Pakistan tremble. He was just 15 miles from Lahore - Pakistan's biggest city.
The whole night Nehru and his cabinet were discussing this way or that way - to do it or not to do it. And even by 6 'o' clock in the morning they had not come to any conclusion. They just heard on the radio - 'General Chaudhri is entering Lahore.'
背后的原因是他在早上5点就袭击了巴基斯坦,比命令提早了一个小时。6点才是正确的时间,6点日出了,人们醒了。但5点才是把最完美的时间——大家都还在梦乡。他说到做到了——他让整个巴基斯坦都为之颤抖。当时他离巴基斯坦最大的城市拉合尔只有15英里的距离。
整个晚上,尼赫鲁和他的内阁都在讨论这样或那样的方法——打还是不打。直到早上6点他们还没有商量出一个结果,结果他们从广播中听到了乔杜里将军正在攻入拉合尔的消息。
That was too much for the politicians. They stopped him just 15 miles before Lahore. And I can see that was sheer stupidity. If the man had taken Lahore, the problem of Kashmir and India would have been solved forever. It is not ever going to be solved, the problem of the territory of Kashmir which Pakistan has occupied - and it was because General Chaudhri was told to come back, 'because India is a non-violent country and you did not wait for the order.'
这对政客们来说是一种越线的行为。他们在离拉合尔15英里的地方拦住了乔杜里将军,这是愚蠢至极的做法。如果当时乔杜里将军占领了拉合尔,那么克什米尔和印度的问题就永远解决了。正因为乔杜里将军被召回,巴控克什米尔领土问题因此永无解决之日,而乔杜里将军的罪名是“印度是一个非暴力国家,你没有等待命令。”
He said to them - 'I do understand military strategy, you don't. Even by 6 'o' clock where was your order? Pakistan has already occupied a certain territory, the most beautiful part of Kashmir - and you were just discussing the whole night. This is not a question to be discussed - this has to be decided on the warfield. If you had allowed me to take over Lahore then we would have been in a position to bargain. Now we are not in a position to bargain. You pulled me back. I had to come back.'
他对政客们说:‘我懂军事,你们不懂。就算我等到6点,你们下令了吗?巴基斯坦已经占领了我们的一块领土,那是克什米尔最美的部分——你们用一整晚的时间讨论来讨论去,但这不是一个能通过讨论解决的问题——必须在战场上决出结果。如果你们让我接管拉合尔,我们就能跟巴基斯坦掰扯掰扯了。可现在我们没有转圜的余地了。你们把我拖回来了,我不得不回来。”
The UN decided for a ceasefire line. So now for 40 years, UN armies have been there patrolling, on the other side Pakistani armies are patrolling, on this side Indian armies are patrolling. For 40 years - just nonsense! And in the UN they go on discussing and nothing comes out of it.
And the territory that has been taken by Pakistan you cannot take back because of the ceasefire. They have decided in their Parliament that the territory occupied by them is combined into Pakistan. Now they show it on their maps. It is no longer occupied territory, it is Pakistani territory.
联合国决定划定停火线。40年来,联合国军队一直在停火线一带巡逻,巴基斯坦军队在另一边巡逻,印度军队在这一边巡逻。40年了,简直就是一场闹剧!他们在联合国继续讨论,至今也没谈成什么结果。
由于停火协议,印度无法收回被巴基斯坦占领的领土。巴基斯坦议会决定将占领的领土并入巴基斯坦。现在他们公然在地图上做了标记。那块领土不再是被占领的领土,而是巴基斯坦的领土。
I had told General Chaudhri - 'This was such a simple thing that you had to be in a bargaining position. If you had taken Lahore, they would have immediately agreed to leave Kashmir because they could not lose Lahore. Or if a ceasefire was to come, okay, then Lahore remains with us when we ceasefire. Either way there will be something to bargain. India doesn't have anything to bargain with - why should Pakistan bother?'
But politicians certainly don't have brains."
- Osho, From Darkness to Light
我告诉乔杜里将军,‘这是一件再简单不过的事了,你自己也要有讨价还价的立场。如果你占领了拉合尔,巴基斯坦会立即同意离开克什米尔,因为他们不能失去拉合尔。或者,既然马上要停火,那么停火时我们要留下拉合尔。这样你都有讨价还价的余地。如果印度没有资本可以讨价还价的,巴基斯坦为什么要在意呢?”
但政客们肯定没有脑子。
——Osho,《从黑暗走向光明》
Ashok Rangnekar
Its true that we had invaded in Lahore sector and reached upto outskirt of Lahore city. It was not our aim to conquer and annex the city of Lahore for several reasons. We opened the Lahore front just to release Pakistani pressure on Kashmir and Panjab. Otherwise it was very difficult for us, to save Kashmir from Pakistani invasion.
We were not militarily and mentally prepared to conquer and annex POK. Our aim was limited to throw Pakistani army out of India and also to teach them a lesson.
We achieved it.
的确,我们当时已经攻入了拉合尔地区,抵达了拉合尔市的郊区。但出于几个原因,我们并非意在征服和拿下拉合尔市。我们打拉合尔只是为了分散巴基斯坦在克什米尔和旁遮普的压力。否则,我们很难从巴基斯坦手中救回克什米尔。
我们在军事和精神上都没有准备好征服和吞并巴控克什米尔。我们的目标仅限于把巴基斯坦军队赶出印度,并给他们一个教训。
而我们做到了。
Karnam Sahai
Great observations here. All correct. In addition, at the tactical level on the ground, the Indian army had massively underestimated it’s own ammunition and tank strength mistakenly believing 80% ammo used up (while only 14% was used up!). Talk about lack of operational record kee. So the generals were worried about getting overstretched and unable to continue the campaign. All in all, while it was mostly a stalemate, one could claim that India got the upper hand, because the India reacted to the offense. It could be claimed to be a strategic defeat for Pakistan, because they failed in their gambit of taking Kashmir by force. But this war changed the Indian mindset setting the course for massive defense build-up.
你这个问题很棒,你说的没错。另外,在地面战术层面,印度军队严重低估了自己的弹药和坦克实力,误认为80%的弹药都用完了(实际上只用了14%!)我们的操作记录实在很烂。所以将军们担心战线拉得太长难以维系。总而言之,虽然当时双方陷入僵局,但我认为印度还是占了上风,因为印度对巴方的进攻做出了反击。巴基斯坦的战略可以说以失败告终了,因为他们用武力夺取克什米尔的策略失败了。但这场战争改变了印度的思维方式,为大规模国防建设奠定了道路。