What if India breaks Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan? How much will it affect Pakistan?

如果印度违反了与巴基斯坦签订的《印度河水资源条约》怎么办？会给巴基斯坦带来多大影响？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Ayub S N

INDUS WATER TREATY ?

Indus Water Treaty was signed between India and Pakistan On September 19, 1960 between Jawaharlal Nehru, PM of India and Ayub Khan, President of Pakistan, over the utilisation of water of six rivers(Indus System) that originates in India and flow across Pakistan. According to IWT,

印度河流域水资源条约？

1960年9月19日，印度总理贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁和巴基斯坦总统阿尤布·汗在印度和巴基斯坦签署了《印度河水资源条约》，该条约旨在妥善利用发源于印度并流经巴基斯坦的六条河流(印度河系)的水资源。条约协定：

1.Three eastern rivers namely Ravi, Beas and Sutlej are under control of India.

2.Three western rivers namely Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are under the control of Pakistan.

3.India can utilise 20% of these western rivers without disturbing directions of flow of water( by constructing canals) and without storing water in resorvior(dams). But allowed to implement hydro-electric projects along banks of these rivers.

1. 三条东部河流：拉维河、贝阿斯河和萨特莱吉河，由印度控制。

2. 三条西部河流：印度河、杰赫勒姆河和杰纳布河，由巴基斯坦控制。

3. 印度可以利用这些西部河流20%的水量，不能扰乱水流方向(比如修建运河)，也不能用水库蓄水(大坝)，但可以在这几条河流的两岸修建水电项目。

Recent developments ?

In September 2016, Indian army was attacked by Pakistani Terrorists in URI, killing 19 Soldiers. In response to URI attack, India has taken following steps against Pakistani.

近况如何？

2016年9月，印度军队在乌里遭到巴基斯坦恐怖分子的袭击，造成19名士兵死亡。作为回应，印度对巴基斯坦采取了以下措施：

1.Boycotted Pakistani artist who were working in Bollywood and in other parts of country.

2.Indian government announced Surgical Strike on Pakistani territory camp in POK crossing Line of Control(LoC) and successfully in destroying all terrorist camps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir(PoK).

1.在印度宝莱坞和其他地方工作的巴基斯坦艺术家受到了印方的抵制。

2.印度政府宣布对巴控克什米尔一方越过实控线的营地进行外科手术式打击，并成功摧毁了巴控克什米尔的所有恐怖主义营地。

3.Our PM Narendra Modi held a meeting to review Indus Water Treaty where he said - Blood and Water never go together. Did he mean not to allow Single drop of water into Pakistan or to utilise entire 20% of western river water( as India is utilising only 4%) ? Still, we haven't got a answer for this. Mostly, we will get to know about his bold statement in recent meeting at Lahore.

3.我们的总理纳伦德拉·莫迪开会审查《印度河水资源条约》，他说，血和水无法相融。他的意思是不让一滴水流进巴基斯坦，或者用够西部河流20%的配额(印度只利用了4%)。但还没有定论。我们可以了解一下他最近在拉合尔会议上的强硬声明。

Why not break Indus Water Treaty??

43% of the Pakistani depend on these rivers for irrigation. India can teach a lesson by breaking Indus Water Treaty (not alllowing water into Pakistan). But, India seems not to break the Indus Water Treaty because of following reasons.

为什么不干脆撕毁《印度河水资源条约》？

43%的巴基斯坦人依赖这些河流来灌溉农田。印度是可以违反《印度河水资源条约》(不让水流进入巴基斯坦)，给巴基斯坦一个教训。但是，印度似乎无意这么做，原因如下：

1.World Bank is signatory under Indus Water Treaty(IWT). Breaking this Treaty, will create very bad impression on India.

2.Many such Water treaties are signed with our neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Nepal . Breaking this treaty, will create bad reputation about India internationally.

3.A treaty is signed between India and China over utilisation of Brahmaputra river( which originates in China and flow across India ). Breaking Indus Water Treaty(IWT) treaty, may inspire China to do same with India. AS YOU SOW, SO YOU REAP.

1. 世界银行也是《印度河水资源条约》的签字方。如果印度违反这个条约，会有损印度的形象。

2. 我们和孟加拉国和尼泊尔等邻国也签署了很多类似的水资源条约。如果印度违反《印度河水资源条约》，就砸了印度在国际上的口碑。

3. 印度和中国就布拉马普特拉河(发源于中国，流经印度)的利用问题也签署了一项条约。如果印度违反《印度河水资源条约》，中国有可能也会对印度采取同样的行动。种瓜得瓜，种豆得豆。

4.Indian government haven't constructed any canals and dams across these rivers to stop flowing of water into Pakistan(as it was not allowed in IWT). If we start constructing canals and dams from nowonwards, it takes 5–10 years more. But, it's impossible to store entire water in these dams( it's like defeating Arnab in his own Television show), finally resulting in overflow.

5.Constructed dams and canals may become target for Pakistani terrorist. Destroying these dams and canals causes floods in our territory. Also, cost of security is more.

4. 印度政府从未在这些河流上修建任何水渠和水坝来拦截水流进入巴基斯坦(因为IWT不允许这么做)。如果我们从现在开始修建水渠和水坝，需要5-10年。但水坝也无法储存全部的水，水蓄满了最终会溢出。

5. 水坝和运河一旦修建完成，可能就会成为巴基斯坦恐怖分子的目标。这些水坝和运河如遭破坏，会在印度领土上引发洪水。安全成本也更高。

6.India is utilising only 4% of western river water( But, Indus water treaty says India can utilise upto 20%). Now, question arising in everyone’s mind - Y not India utilising entire 20% of water ? It's because India wish to utilise, to help our farmers by supplying water for irrigation and also for development of hydro- electric power. But, many hydro-electric power and other water related projects are still under construction as Pakistan government is continuously opposing and bringing issue under the notice of International court of justice.

6. 印度仅利用了西部河流的4%的水资源(但是《印度河水资源条约》规定印度可以用到20%)。现在，每个人都会想到一个问题——印度为什么不用满20%的水呢？这是因为，印度是想用这些水来灌溉农田，也想发展水力发电，但因为巴基斯坦政府不断提出反对并诉至国际法庭，印度很多水电站和其他水利项目仍未完工。

7.So, recently we get to watch many friendly movements (I) Indian Officials agreed to attend meeting conducting by Permanent Indus Commsion(PIC) in Lahore to discuss about Indus Water Treaty and revise it. (II) Release of prisoners by both countries.(III) Reduction in firing along LoC.

7. 所以，最近我们看到了许多友好活动

(I)印度官员同意参加印度河永久委员会(PIC)在拉合尔举行的会议，对《印度河水资源条约》进行讨论和修改；

(II)两国释放囚犯

(III)沿实控线减少交火。

Bharti Sharma

First time in history, India has warned Pakistan over its action for Indus Water Treaty. Becuase, now India is ready to modify 1960's Indua Water Treaty.

印度历史上第一次就巴基斯坦对《印度河水资源条约》的行动发出警告。因为现在印度准备对1960年的《印度河水资源条约》进行修订。

Under this Treaty, India gave control indua, Chenab and Jhelum to Paksitan and have Beas, Ravi, Sutlej to itself. However this is called the biggest blunder of Jawahar Lal Nehru who bless this curiosity to Pakistan without any reason.

This action was taken becuase India is constructing 2 HyrdroProjects Kishanganga and Ratle Hydroproject in Kashmir but Pakistan intended not to complete this project nor ready to talk and request for intervention which already violate Indus Water Treaty.

根据该条约，印度将印度河、杰赫勒姆河和杰纳布河的控制权交给巴基斯坦，并将拉维河、贝阿斯河和萨特莱吉河的控制权收归自己所有。

之所以采取这一行动，是因为印度正在克什米尔地区修建吉桑甘加和拉特尔两个水电项目，但巴基斯坦不希望项目完工，也不想要谈判，这已经违反了《印度河水资源条约》。

Now, India has given 90 days period time to Pakistan to discuss on this Treaty otherwise India will renew Indus Water treaty which will affect Pakistan economy.

现在，印度给了巴基斯坦90天的时间来讨论这个条约，否则印度将着手修订，这就会给巴基斯坦的经济造成影响。

Balaji Viswanathan

Related

Should India opt out of Indus Water Treaty? What will be its repercussions?

It would be terrible for India to try to abrogate the Indus Water Treaty negotiated with much effort. That treaty between India and Pakistan stood through the worst of wars between the two countries - in 1965, 1971 and 1999.

It will affect the poorest in Pakistan and will provide more fodder for terrorism. It could even start a war - and even if India could win it, it would come at a terrible cost to our armed forces and our fledgling economy.

It will damage India’s reputation worldwide and change its perception from a victim of neighbor’s terrorism to an aggressor.

对印度来说，废除经过大量努力谈判达成的《印度河水资源条约》会导致可怕的后果。印度和巴基斯坦之间的条约经受了1965年、1971年和1999年两国之间最为严重的几场战争。

巴基斯坦的穷人们将深受影响，也会给恐怖分子更多借口。还有可能引发一场战争——即便印度赢得了战争，我们的军队和刚刚起步的经济也将付出可怕的代价。

这样做也会损害印度在世界上的声誉，印度也会因此从邻国恐怖主义的受害者变成侵略者。

Not following contract laws would make India as untrustworthy for future treaties and agreements it will make with other countries.

It will give an excuse and precedent for countries like China to divert their rivers like Brahmaputra from India.

Even if India wants to, it requires massive investment and decades of time to stop the west flowing rivers.

这种违背合同法的行为，会让印度在日后和其他国家签订条约和协议时，不受对方信任。

这也给了中国等国从印度分流雅鲁藏布江等河流水资源提供了借口和先例。

而且，即便印度真的想要阻止河流向西流动，也需要进行大量投资并等上几十年的时间。

Mature countries like ours should keep the temptation of over-reacting. In both Pathankot and Uri our poor defense preparedness and the gaps in our border defense was on show. If four terrorists could kill a dozen armed soldiers in a supposedly well guarded base, it is a shame for us. Let’s fix that and make our country strong. Cutting water to millions of people for the fault of a rogue army of the neighbor and our own poor preparedness, is childish.

像我们这样的成熟大国应该保持过度反应的诱惑。在帕坦科特和乌里，我们暴露出了国防准备和边境防守的很多漏洞。四名恐怖分子能在一个本该戒备森严的基地杀死十多名武装士兵，这对我们来说是奇耻大辱。

我们必须解决这个问题，把国家建设得更加强大。因为邻国军队的过错和我们自己防守不足而切断数百万人的用水，是一种幼稚的行为。

Abhinandan Verma

The Indus Water Treaty is an international treaty so it is difficult to break it unilaterally by India because of global condemnation and the moral high ground. The uniqueness of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it is the only international water treaty co-signed by a third party - the World Bank in 1960. Any form of India's open withdrawal from the treaty will automatically draw the World Bank into the dispute - and in support of Pakistan. If India decides to withdraw from the treaty, Pakistan can also take India to International Court of Justice (ICJ). If India decides to ignore international norms and treats the Indus waters as a weapon to punish Pakistan, it will unfortunately lead to huge human insecurity in the neighbouring country that is environmentally and politically incorrect that leads millions of people to die because of famine and it would harm some endangered species also.

《印度河水资源条约》是一项国际条约，鉴于可能导致的全球非议和印度所处的道德高地，印度很难单方面打破这个条约。

《印度河水资源条约》的独特之处在于，它是唯一一个由第三方——世界银行——于1960年共同签署的国际水资源条约。

印度公开退出该条约的行为会自动将世界银行拖入争端——并支持巴基斯坦。

如果印度决定退出该条约，巴基斯坦也可以将印度告上国际法庭。

如果印度决定无视国际准则，将印度河水资源作为惩罚巴基斯坦的武器，将导致邻国民众的极度危险，这在环境和政治上都是不正确的做法，会导致数百万人因饥荒而死亡并危及一些濒危物种。

That’s all what i have discussed is about the after effect and importance of the treaty. It doesn’t mean we can not break this treaty. This treaty can be violated on the various ground . My first point for the violation of the treaty is the unequal water distribution or one sided water treaty between both country where the average annual flow of eastern rivers was calculated at 33 million acre feet in India while the western rivers made up 135 million acre feet in Pakistan, it means Pakistan gets more benefited by treaty . My 2nd point is, the treaty has not considered Gujarat state in India as part of Indus river basin. The Indus river is entering the Great Rann of kutch area and feeding in to Kori Creek during floods. At the time of Indus Waters Treaty in 1960, the Great Rann of Kutch area was disputed territory between the two nations which was later settled in the year 1968 by sharing total disputed area in 9:1 ratio between India and Pakistan. Therefore Gujarat is eligible for Indus water share and treaty needs to be re-investigated by India.

以上就是我想谈的所有内容，都是关于这个条约的后果和重要性。我们并不是不能违反这个条约。

在很多立场上，印度都可以违反这个条约。

第一点，两国之间的水资源分配不均和不公平的水资源条约，印度东部河流的年平均流量为3300万英亩英尺，而巴基斯坦西部河流的年平均流量为1.35亿英亩英尺，这意味着巴基斯坦从条约中受益更多。

第二点，条约没有将印度的古吉拉特邦视为印度河流域的一部分。印度河流入库奇地区的大兰河，并在洪水期间流入科里河。在1960年签订《印度河水资源条约》时，库奇大兰地区是两国之间有争议的领土，后来两国在1968年解决了这一领土问题，印度和巴基斯坦以9:1的份额比例共享这块争议领土。

因此，古吉拉特邦有资格分享印度河水资源，印度需要对该条约进行重新调查。