What will happen if the US defaults on its debt? Will the economy crash? Will the dollar finally collapse?

如果美国债务违约，会发生什么？经济会崩溃吗？美元最终会崩盘吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Aaron Brown

It depends how it happens.

取决于债务违约是如何发生的。

The most likely default is a negotiated restructuring. The US will negotiate with large creditors and supranational organizations to reduce interest rates and extend maturities of its debt—possibly writing some off—in return for adopting rigorous fiscal and monetary reforms. While this would be chaotic in the short-term, I think it would be a medium and long-term positive for the economy and the world financial system. The changes have to occur sooner or later, and the sooner addressed the less the pain and confusion.

最有可能出现的情况是协商重组。美国会跟大型债权人和跨国组织进行谈判，以企降低利率、延长债务期限——或许还能免除部分债务——促使美国采取严格的财政手段并进行货币改革。虽然短期内会十分混乱，但我认为从中长期来看，对经济和世界金融体系都是积极正向的。剧变迟早会发生，但长痛不如短痛。

The worst form of default would be for the US to repay its debt in cash, more than doubling the money supply overnight, and destroying any vestige of trust in its discipline. This would cause a dollar collapse, taking with it not only government securities, but all private savings and securities denominated in dollars—including physical currency. It would take major financial institutions with it, and be a blow to the global economy. However it would not destroy any real assets and I think the global economy would recover fairly rapidly. Wi out all dollar debt would impoverish many individuals and bankrupt many institutions, but more people and businesses would benefit from extinguishing debt than would suffer, providing huge stimulation to speed the next up-cycle.

对美国来说，最糟糕的违约形式是用现金偿清债务，这会在一夜之间让市面上的货币供应量增加一倍以上，并摧毁全世界对美元的信任。美元会因此崩盘，不仅累及政府债券，还会波及所有以美元计价的私人储蓄和证券，包括美钞本身。金融机构全都无法独善其身，全球经济也会遭到沉重打击。但它对实体资产没有影响，我认为全球经济会迅速复苏。消除美元债务会使许多个人陷入贫困之中，迫使许多机构破产，但更多的人和企业将从中受益，会为加快下一个上行周期提供巨大的刺激。

Jm Chow

If you owe money and if you can’t repay your debt, you go bankrupt. That’s all. For the US, the US economy will crash.

America owe Japan 1.2 trillions dollars, owe China about 900 billions dollars and owe other countries in total about 7.5 trillions dollars. The US government owe Americans and US institutions about 21 trillion dollars.

如果你欠了钱，如果你不能偿还你的债务，你就会破产。就是这么简单。对美国这个国家而言，美国经济就会崩盘。

美国欠日本1.2万亿美元，欠中国约9000亿美元，欠其他国家约7.5万亿美元。美国政府欠美国民众和美国机构大约21万亿美元。

If the US defaults, then Japan, China, 10 other countries will NOT get repayment. Americans too will not get repayments. Too bad…for Japan, for China and for Americans.

Yes. it is likely that NO BODY will lend money to the US again. Then America will have to cut expenses…big time. Because of inflation (hyperinflation), printing US dollar become useless.

如果美国违约，那么日本、中国和其他10个国家就会血本无归。美国民众也一样。对日本、中国和美国来说，这实在太糟糕了。

没错，以后可能就没有人借钱给美国了，那么美国将不得不大幅削减开支。而因为通货膨胀(恶性通货膨胀)，印刷美钞也于事无补。

How to cut expenses.

The trillion dollar military expenses will have to go. Those expenses that can generate revenue will remain. Those workers doing administrative work will have to go. Doctors and nurses can continue to work. The lawmakers ( US congress) will have to be suspended…the police will keep their jobs. It is painful but it must be done.

如何削减开支。

美国必须削减规模高达万亿美元的军事开支，保留那些能够产生收入的支出。那些从事行政管理工作的工人被迫下岗。但医生和护士可以继续工作。国会议员(美国国会)会被停职，但警察可以保住工作。这确实很痛苦，但美国别无他选。

It is likely the US economy will crash.

US economy had crashed many times before…in 1873, in 1882, in 1910, and the last one in 1929. The US went into a great depression which lasted for 43 months (almost 4 years). In every century, there are two economic crashes in the USA. One crash is overdue now.

美国经济很可能会崩盘。

美国经济此前也曾发生过多次崩盘：1873年、1882年、1910年以及最近的1929年。当时美国陷入了长达43个月(近4年)的大萧条。每个世纪，美国都会经历两次经济崩溃。现在第二场经济崩盘已经延后了。

Lucas Williams

The probability of a debt default in the U.S. is very low and basically unlikely to occur.

A US default on its debt could have serious negative consequences:

美国发生债务违约的可能性非常低，基本上不太可能发生。

美国债务违约可能会产生非常严重的后果：

•Economic crisis and recession. A default would undermine faith in US Treasury securities and the dollar, damaging financial markets. Interest rates would rise sharply, credit markets could freeze up, and a severe recession would likely result. The effects on global markets and trade could also trigger a wider economic crisis.

•经济危机和经济衰退。美国债务违约会削弱人们对美国国债和美元的信心，损害金融市场。利率将大幅上升，信贷市场可能彻底冻结，可能导致严重的经济衰退。对全球市场和贸易的影响还可能引发更广泛的经济危机。

•Dollar collapse. A default could accelerate a collapse in the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Central banks would likely diversify into other currencies and assets. The reduced demand for dollars and dollar-denominated debt could diminish the US's economic power and influence on the global stage.

• 美元地位崩盘。违约可能会加速美元作为世界主要储备货币的崩盘。各国央行可能会把投资分散于其他货币和资产上。对美元和以美元计价的债务的需求减少，可能会削弱美国的经济实力和美国在全球舞台上的影响力。

•Higher borrowing costs. The US government would face higher interest rates to attract investors in the future, raising the borrowing costs of the federal government and private sector alike. Mortgage rates, auto loan rates, and student loan rates would go up as a result.

•借贷成本升高。美国政府未来必须用更高的利率来吸引投资者，这会增加联邦政府和私营企业的借贷成本。而抵押贷款利率、汽车贷款利率和学生贷款利率也都会上升。

•Damage to US credibility. The reputation and credibility of the US would suffer a serious blow, especially if additional defaults followed. The perception of the US as a stable, trustworthy hub for global trade, finance, and commerce could be permanently diminished. Allies and adversaries alike would question US leadership.

•美国的信誉受损。美国的声誉和信誉将受到严重打击。美国作为一个稳定、值得信赖的全球贸易、金融和商业中心的形象可能会被永久削弱。盟友和对手都会质疑美国的领导地位。

•Market chaos. US stock markets would drop sharply in response to a default as investor confidence collapsed. Corporate profits would slump, unemployment would rise quickly, and a recession could deepen into a full-blown financial crisis with lasting damage to household wealth and growth.

•市场出现混乱。随着投资者信心的崩溃，美国股市会因为违约而大幅下跌。企业利润下滑，失业率迅速攀升，经济衰退可能恶化为全面的金融危机，对民众的家庭财富和经济增长造成持久损害。

Despite these catastrophic risks, some economists argue that the long-term effects of a potential US default could be managed, and that the dollar's dominance gives the US more borrowing flexbility. But the risks far outweigh any rewards, and lawmakers should work to avoid even flirting with default. Making timely payments on its debt is absolutely critical for the US to maintain credibility, prosperity, and global power. Default should never be an option on the table.

尽管存在这些灾难性风险，但部分经济学家认为，美国潜在违约的长期影响是可控的，美元的霸主地位赋予了美国更大的借贷灵活性。但风险远远大于回报，国会议员们应该努力避免违约的发生。美国应该及时偿还债务，这对美国保持信誉、繁荣和全球实力绝对至关重要。永远都不要给债务违约任何发生的机会。

So in summary, yes - a US debt default would likely be an economic crash and disaster scenario, with the potential for lasting damage to the role of the US on the global stage. The dollar could face an exstential crisis, and the world financial system might never be the same again. Default is not worth the immense risks. It must be avoided.

因此，总的来说，是的——美国债务违约很可能会导致一场经济崩溃和灾难，有可能对美国在全球舞台上的角色造成持久的损害。美元可能面临一场生死存亡的危机，而世界金融体系可能发生翻天覆地的变化。我们不值得为了违约甘冒如此大的风险，必须杜绝。

US We

I’ve read that a default has happened a few times in the past, but the amount was a lot smaller (relatively speaking), and not as many government services and programs exsted at that time, not as many people reliant on government as we are now.

That’s the biggest question mark, the biggest worry on why a debt default is so serious in recent times.

Here is a very short video by Lisa Remillard who gives straight to the point answers on the consequences of debt default:

我读到过历史上发生过的数次违约，但违约金额要小很多(相对而言)，当时的政府服务和项目还没有想今天那么多，依赖政府的人也不像今天那么多。

这就是近期债务违约为何会如此严重的最大原因，也是最大的担忧。

here’s a quick run down on worst case scenarios:

请看一下对最糟情况的快速总结：

1.Salaries and benefits for federal employees, military, veterans and contractors will be significantly delayed or simply not paid.

2.Social security, Medicare, Medicaid payments stop or significantly delayed

3.Any type of tax refunds (that you haven’t gotten by now) may not go out.

4.Student loan benefits/grants don’t get paid

1.联邦雇员、军人、退伍军人和承包商的工资和福利会严重拖延，甚至无力支付。

2.社会保障、医疗保险、医疗补助的支付会被迫停止或严重拖延。

3.所有退税可能都无法到账。

4.学生贷款/助学金无法申请。

5.federal government facilities can’t stay open

6.Interest rates go up further

7.Costs of operations for small businesses, corporations and local state/county/city governments go up

8.credit card rates increase

9.mortgage rates increase

10.car loans rates increase

5.联邦政府的设施也难以维系

6.利率进一步上升

7.小企业、公司和地方州/县/市政府的运营成本上升

8.信用卡利率上调

9.抵押贷款利率上升

10.汽车贷款利率上调

11.costs of import goods increase

12.retirement accounts tied to stock market will get significantly hit

13.If necessary, there might be a freeze on credit and loans

14.Value of the dollar drops down significantly

15.Due to dollars presence in world trade, despite all the de-dollarization going on, global markets will still get hit significantly.

11. 进口货物的成本增加

12. 与股市挂钩的退休账户严重缩水

13. 如果有必要，可能会冻结信贷和贷款

14. 美元的价值大幅下降

15. 鉴于美元在世界贸易中的地位，尽管现在已逐步去美元化，但全球市场仍将遭受重大打击。

16.Mild recession is best outcome if default happens

17.Absolute worst case is a recession lasting multiple quarters (or depression), and we’re looking at a lost generation type of scenario.

18.Nominal GDP drops significantly.

16. 如果债务违约真的发生，经济的缓慢衰退已经是最好的结果

17. 最最糟糕的情况是持续多个季度的经济衰退(或萧条)，我们将重新进入失落的一代。

18. 名义GDP大幅下降。

Jack Smith

Basically the same thing when an individual defaults on a loan…except the impact is felt on a global scale. The biggest difference is countries around the world buy US treasuries because the US dollar is stable which in turn stabilizes their own currency. A default by the United States would turn that upside down and almost certainly trigger a far reaching global recession. The US would likely no longer be an economic and military super power.

基本上，债务违约就和个人拖欠贷款一样……区别在于全球范围内都能感受到债务违约的影响。世界各国因为认可美元的稳定性而购买美国国债，从而稳定自己的货币。但是美国的债务违约将彻底颠覆这一局面，可以说一定会引发一场影响深远的全球大衰退。美国可能无法维持经济和军事超级大国的地位。

Roger Clawson

If the U.S. defaults, there are economists that believe that the stock market could lose up to 45 percent of it's value. An estimate is that up to 8 million people could become unemployed. The dollar is already experiencing some blips in the world market. This is territory we have never been in before, and don't want to be now. It is imperative that our politicians jettison the rhetoric and raise the ceiling.

有经济学家认为，如果美国违约，股市可能会损失高达45%的市值。据估计，多达800万人可能会失业。美元已经在全球市场内经历了一些波动。这是我们过去从未遇见过的情形，也是我们不想遇见的情形。我们的政客们别再花言巧语，企图提高债务上限了。

James Allen

These are reasonable outcomes. But we’ve been here before, and deal’s always get made, and everyone takes a sigh of relief, and we move on. Worse off for the experience for a year or two.

这些都是合理的结果。但我们以前也遇到过这种情况，最后总能顺利解决，每个人都松了一口气，又继续破罐破摔。一两年之后，情况就更糟了。