Do you think that by 2047 when India would celebrate its 100th independence anniversary, could India's GDP and GDP per capita be atleast 50% of China's . Right now India's nominal GDP is just 20% of China?

2047年印度独立100周年时，印度的GDP和人均GDP能达到中国的50%吗？等到毕竟现在印度的名义GDP只有中国的20%。

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Srinivas Charlu

To reduce the gap between the output of the two countries, India would have to grow at a much faster rate than China year after year for two decades ( much like China grew at a much faster rate than USA in the last 25 years ).

China at the moment ( 2021) is growing at an annual rate of 6 to 8 %. Given the ambitions and goals of progress in many leading technologies declared by the chinese; there is no reason to assume that growth will slow down to Western levels of 3 4 % per year in the next 15 years.

为了缩短两国之间的差距，印度在20年内都必须以比中国快得多的速度增长，中国在过去25年里的增长速度就比美国快得多。

中国2021年的年增长率为6%至8%。鉴于中公布了在许多领先技术领域取得进展的雄心和发展目标；我们没有理由认为中国在未来15年里，会令经济增长放缓到西方国家每年3%至4%的水平。

Thus India has to grow at a rate of 8 10% per year, if not more, for 10 15 years to reach the goal stated by you.

Is it likely to be achieved? As things are- India is unlikely to get the opportunity for becoming a major supplier to the rest of the world like China could in the decade after joining the WTO- because of many factors- a repetition of the concentration of international supply chains is currently out of vogue; we're not established as leaders and innovators in any major technology ( nor does our society support such outlook) so we can't be pioneer sources of something new for the world; without increased earnings benefitting majority of the population there will not be sufficient demand for increased production of goods and services which gets reflected in the GDP.

因此，印度必须在未来10 - 15年内至少以每年8 - 10%的速度增长，才能达到问题中提出的目标。

这有可能实现吗？目前的情况是因为多种因素叠加，导致印度不太可能复刻中国加入世贸组织后的黄金十年，一举成为全世界的主要供应国，国际供应链已不可能再度集中；我们在任何主流科技领域都不是领军者，更不是创新者，所以我们无法成为全球新事物的先驱；如果印度大多数人口未能享受到收入的增加，印度就不会有足够的需求来增加商品和服务的生产，而GDP就能反映出这一点。

The nature of Indian politics is one of rent seeking ( aka percentage/ commission/ bribery) at all levels. The current electoral system has become a vicious circle of high outlays in the hope of getting even higher returns once elected- so change in the culture of governance from personal enrichment cum patronage networking to creating general prosperity is extremely unlikely.

Without such changes; exploration of new markets/ emphasis on increasing efficiency and productivity at all stages/ cutting down subsidies which have outlived their utility and a change in the outlook about fragmentation of farming/ protecting an exsting job even if it means denial of more jobs being created later- all will remain a drag.

印度政治的本质是各级权力的寻租(又名分成、佣金和贿赂)。目前印度的选举制度已经进入了一个恶性循环，高额支出是为了在当选后获取更高的回报—所以，要想从治理文化下手，把个人致富、裙带关系变成创造普遍繁荣，是极其不现实的。

如果没能进行这样的改变，那么探索新市场、注重提高效率和生产力，削减不合理的补贴和改变对农业碎片化的态度，保住现有的工作岗位，即便这意味着不能在未来创造更多的工作机会—所有这些都无法实现。

India is likely to keep growing at 6 8 % per year- sufficient to stop impoverishment/ slowly lift poor people out of poverty but not enough to close the gap between us and China.

印度可能会保持每年6-8%的增长速度——足以阻止贫困/缓慢地让穷人脱贫，但不足以缩小印度和中国之间的差距。

Saleem Shaikh

It all depends on the quality of governance that India will have (upto 2047) as the fundamental factor. This single factor is like the foundation on which a building is erected. The rest of the factors flow from there.

这取决于印度(到2047年)的国家治理水平，这是基础，国家治理水平就像建筑物的地基一样。其余因素也源于这一点。

Unfortunate as it may seem, the present day scenario does not sound promising on that count. Currently the gap between India and China is widening both in terms of overall GDP as well as per capita GDP. Just imagine that in 2020 alone, about 32 million Indians have been pushed out of the middle class, while number of Indians who have fallen below the poverty line increased by 75 million, and those pushed into extreme poverty (surviving on less than $1.9 per day) may number more than 12 million.

在这方面，印度目前的情况并不太乐观。目前，印度和中国在总体GDP和人均GDP方面的差距正在不断扩大。想象一下，2020年一年就有大约3200万印度人被挤出中产阶级，贫困线以下的印度人增加了7500万，被推入极端贫困(每天靠不到1.9美元过活)的人甚至可能超过了1200万。

Suchindranath Aiyer

No.

This is like trying to catch a moving train as it gathers speed.

China will keep growing, impelled by its strategies, policies and Governance. India will continue to stagnate as per its own cherished policies. The gap betwixt them will continue to increase.

不可能。

这就好比试图追赶一辆正在加速行驶的火车。

在战略、政策和国家治理水平的推动下，中国会继续快速发展。而印度只会对自己的政策敝帚自珍，原地踏步。两国之间的差距只可能进一步扩大。

India’s “GDP” is largely dependent on a billion Indians desperately attempting to earn one square meal a day while most of the capital and human resources are idle and downright unproductive. The entire structure of Government and Governance is geared against individual productivity where, like Islam, Government treats all outside itself as legitimate prey while continuing to convert more and more to Government whether direct or indirect. This is the Islamic Mughal structure inherited by the East India Company and handed over to their successors after much polishing.

印度的“GDP”很大程度上依赖于10亿印度人，他们每天辛辛苦苦挣饭吃，而大多数资本和人力资源都没有充分利用，完全不具备生产力。印度政府和治理方式都在阻挠个人生产力的开发，就像ysl教一样，政府把国内的一切都视为合法的掠夺对象。这正是东印度公司承袭的ysl莫卧儿王朝体系，修修补补后又移交给了他们的继任者。

The business of India remains corrupt, incompetent, unproductive Government which owns or controls most of India’s capital, assets and human resources.

India’s standards are continuing to collapse along the trajectory set for it in 1949. In education, in Government recruitment, in Government, Public Sector and Judicial accountability and probity setting an example for the minuscule productive private sector, on which Government preys, to follow suit.

印度的商业至今十分腐败无能，低效的政府拥有着或控制着印度大部分的资本、资产和人力资源。

印度正在沿着1949年设定的轨道继续滑坡。在教育、政府招聘、政府、公共部门、司法问责和廉洁方面，印度政府为微不足道的生产性私营部门树立了效仿的榜样，而私营部门正是政府的掠夺对象。

All of India’s policies, laws, administration, police and courts are geared towards the redistribution of wealth on the basis of caste, tribe, religion, gender, geography, language, and proxmity to power through the twin instruments of Quotas (Reservations / License) and Corruption (Extortion / Percentage).

Anybody who has anything the Government envies or covets will lose it. Whether wealth, talent, productivity or ideas.

印度所有的政策、法律、行政管理、警察和法院都是为了在种姓、部落、宗教、性别、地理、语言的基础上重新分配财富，并通过配额制(预留制/许可证)和腐败(勒索/分成)这两种工具掌握权力。

人们手中如果有政府渴望或觊觎的东西，是绝对保不住的。无论是财富、才华、生产力还是想法，全都一样。

Modi’s changes are as cosmetic as his saffron turbans over an essentially Gandhi-Nehru-Ambedkar-Naiker-Marx-Mao-Christian-Moslem brain. If anything, he has reinforced the core policies replacing the Khangress with himself and his gang much as the “founding fathers” replaced the British with themselves but continued the colonial “Empire” in residual India after 1947.

莫迪带来的所谓新气象，就是他加强了核心政策，用他自己和亲信取代了国大党，就像“开国元勋”用他们自己取代了英国人，但1947年之后继续在印度实行殖民“帝国”一样。

Colonial Rule was rendered more vicious after 1947 with only the colour of the skin of India’s rulers undergoing some modifications.The Indian Bureaucrats (including “diplomats” and public sector), Police and Judiciary are Caesar's wives above law and accountability made so by Modi's hero Patel, the Iron Statue of India, who continued the corroded colonial legacy of Judiciary, Bureaucracy and Police in perpetuity and which Modi has remade with Titanium in 2016. The incompetent, corrupt Political class stepped into Caesar's shoes vacated by the British and became their husbands in crime. They are above all law, common sense and competence.

1947年后，印度统治者的肤色发生了一些变化，殖民统治变得更加狠毒。印度的官僚(包括“外交官”和公共部门)、警察和司法部门都是不容置疑的，凌驾于法律和问责之上，这是莫迪的英雄帕特尔造成的，帕特尔永久承袭了司法、官僚和警察的腐朽的殖民遗产，莫迪在2016年用钛金属重塑了帕特尔的雕像。无能、腐败的政客们接替了英国人，凌驾于所有法律、常识和能力之上。

In 1949, the foundation of George Orwell’s “Animal Farm” was laid in the form of the Constitution by the likes of Nehru, Patel, Ambedkar etc. In 2014, Modi and gang took over to leverage technology to enrich and empower Government and select cronies at the cost of the freedom and prosperity of the commons in an emulation of George Orwell “1984”.

“plus ca change c'est la meme chose” -Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr

(More the change, the more things are the same)

“Mit der Dummheit kaempfen Goetter selbst vergebens” -Friedrich von Schiller

(Against stupidity the gods themselves struggle in vain.)

1949年，尼赫鲁、帕特尔、安贝德卡等人以宪法的形式奠定了乔治·奥威尔的“动物农场”的基础。2014年，莫迪和亲信效仿乔治·奥威尔的《1984》，利用科技来丰富和增强政府的权力，并牺牲了公众的自由和繁荣作为代价。

改变越多，不变的东西越多。-让·巴蒂斯特·阿尔方斯·卡尔

诸神自己也徒劳无功地对抗愚蠢。——弗里德里希·冯·席勒

Saili Dalvi

Thank You Mr. Prateek Prabodh Upadhya for requesting me to answer your question ..

I don’t think so that in 26 years we will take over China as still we are battling and struggling with life with Covid Pandemic. There is an increase in an amount of Fiscal Deficiency as government is taking Huge Debt to finance treatment for Covid - 19. Government will have to spend more Funds in returning Debt which will cause increase in Taxes of every stream. Thus, rupee will depreciate and Inflation would be raised. Government has also raised interest rates on Borrowings, which would affect source of income of people. Thus will decline the earning capacity of every individual.

我认为我们在26年后不会赶超中国。印度政府之前为拨款抗疫背负了巨额债务，政府的财政赤字金额有所增加。政府将不得不拨付更多的资金来偿还债务，这会导致每个行业的税收出现上升。由此导致卢比贬值，通胀上升。政府还提高了借款利率，这会影响人们的收入来源，从而损害每个人的收入能力。

It’s very difficult to say that how Fast would Companies recover inorder to control the Rising Prices and depreciation of Indian Currency.

企业能以多快的速度恢复，抑制价格上涨和印度货币贬值，是很难预判的。

Surendra Jamuar

Yes rather it can match if India controls its population as China has done but our problem is that due to vote bank politics all parties except BJP encourage polygamy,unlimited family size by muslims ,mass infiltration of illegal BD muslims and rohangias and this eats away all the economic growth

是的，只要印度像中国那样控制好人口，就能赶超中国。但我们有个问题，因为票仓政治，除了人民党，所有政党都鼓励一夫多妻制、不限制家庭规模、大量非法移民等，这些都侵蚀了印度的经济增长成果。

Sitaram Kantheti

Sir

Why 2050.

Make modi a like in china.

By 2030 only 9 years not 26 more years.

Indias g d p will cross chinas.

Comrade

You are lucky, you are not in china

You are able to tell your wish

先生

为什么要等到2050年呢？

只要莫迪效仿中国。

到2030年，只需要9年时间，根本用不着26年。

印度的GDP就会超过中国。

同志

你们很幸运，你们不是生活在中国

你们还能说说自己的愿望

Anupam Majmudar

Look about a decade back, when we were growing at 8.5%, the sky seemed to be the limit, but now with Hindutva party, we have slopped back to Hindu rate of growth it seems, so i do not think so, unless we reverse political trend

回看大约10年前，我们的经济增长速度达到了8.5%，似乎已经达到极限，但现在随着印度人民党的出现，我们的增长率似乎已经回落了，所以我认为我们实现不了，除非我们能成功扭转政治趋势。

继续阅读：印度独立   印度GDP   中国GDP

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