Could India catch the present day development of China even in 2025?

印度2025年能达到中国如今的发展水平吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Richard Fortier

Lots of Indian people may think that China and India are both develo countries, maybe there are some gaps between the two countries, but the gap between the two countries is not that large. Also modern China and India are almost simultaneously established and own the similar populations; since India’s GDP growth rate is faster than that of China (maybe not in 2019) in recent years , and China started reforms 10 years eariler than India, so India is only 10 years behind China, and with India's other advantages, India can surpass China around 2025. Even if India can't surpass China before 2025, India at least can reach China's current (2019) level by 2025.

很多印度人可能觉得中国和印度都是发展中国家，也许两国之间存在着一些差距，但差距并不大。

新中国和印度几乎同时建国，人口规模相近；鉴于近年来印度的GDP增速比中国快(2019年也许没有)，中国的改革开放又比印度早了10年，所以印度只落后中国10年时间，凭借印度在其他方面的优势，印度在2025年左右就能超过中国。即便印度在2025年前没能超过中国，印度至少也能在2025年前就达到中国目前(2019年)的水平。

But looking at something with feelings can often leads to mistakes. We need to think with datas. let's see what the current gap between the two countries，then you can judge whether India can catch current China by 2025.:

但带着主观情绪去看待事物往往会导致错误。我们必须用数据来理性思考。我们要看清两国之间目前的差距，然后才能据此判断印度是否能在2025年赶上现在的中国。

1: By 2019, number of China and India’s "Fortune World 500 companies" are 129 and 7 respectively, so the gap is 129/7=18.4 times

2: China and India’s foreign exchange reserves are 3.1 and 0.39 trillion US dollars respectively in 2018. So the gap is 3.1/0.39=7.9 times

3: Number of China and India’s total patent application are 1.38 million and 46 thousand respectively, So the gap is 1.38 million/46 thousand=30 times

1：截至2019年，“财富世界500强”名单中的中国和印度企业数量分别为129家和7家，因此差距为129：7=18.4倍

2：2018年中国和印度的外汇储备分别为3.1万亿美元和0.39万亿美元。因此，差距为3.1：0.39=7.9倍

3：中国和印度的专利申请总量分别为138万件和4.6万件，差距为138万：4.6万=30倍

4.Number of China and India’s total industrial designs are 630.4 thound and17.8 thousand respectively in 2018, So the gap is 630.4/17.8 thousand=35.4 times

5. Length of China and India’s total metro track is 5100 and 400 kilometers in 2019, so the gap is 5100/400=12.7 times

6: China and India’s total exports are 2.66 and 0.53 trillion dollars respectively in 2018. So the gap is 2.66/0.53=5 times. By the way, most of China's exports are high-tech or industrial goods, while most of India's exports are primary grains and minerals.

4：2018年中国和印度的总工业设计数量分别为63.04万和1.78万，差距为63.04：1.78万=35.4倍

5：2019年中国和印度的地铁总轨道长度分别为5100公里和400公里，差距为5100：400=12.7倍

6：2018年中国和印度的出口总额分别为2.66万亿美元和0.53万亿美元，差距为2.66：0.53=5倍。顺便说一下，中国的大部分出口商品是高科技或工业产品，而印度的大部分出口商品是初级谷物和矿产。

7: China and India’s GDP are 13.5 and 2.68 trillion US dollars respectively in 2018. So the gap is 13.5/2.68=5 times

8: By 2018, steel production of India and China is 0.1 and 0.9 billion tons respectively. So the gap is 0.9/0.1=9times.

9 : China and India’s renewable energy production are 1.837 and 0.261 billion megawatt respectively in 2018. So the gap is 1.837/0.261=7 times

7：2018年中国和印度的GDP分别为13.5万亿美元和2.68万亿美元，差距是13.5：2.68=5倍

8：截止2018年，印度和中国的钢铁产量分别为1亿吨和9亿吨，差距是9：1=9倍。

9：2018年中国和印度的可再生能源产量分别为18.37亿兆瓦和2.61亿兆瓦，差距为18.37：2.61=7倍

10: China and India’s car sales number are 29.1 and 4.0 million respectively a year. So the gap is 29.1/4=7.3 times.

11: China and India’s expenditures on R&D are 451.9 billion and 66.5 billion dollars respectively a year. So the gap is 451.9/66.5=6.8 times

12：China accounts for 10 of the world's top 20 ports, and 7 of the top 10 ports. None of India’s ports is on the list.

13: China and India attracted 63 and 10 million foreign tourists respectively in 2017. So the gap is 63/10=6.3 times.

10：中国和印度的汽车年销量分别为2910万辆和400万辆，差距是2910：400=7.3倍。

11：中国和印度每年的研发支出分别为4519亿美元和665亿美元。因此，差距为4519：665=6.8倍

12：全球前20大港口中，中国占了10个，前10大港口中，中国占了7个。印度的港口无一入围。

13：2017年，中国和印度分别吸引了6300万和1000万外国游客，差距是6300：1000=6.3倍。

In addition, in 2019 China is the world's second largest economy, 4 largest banks in the world are owned by China. China can also lead 137 countries to join the Belt and Road project, establish AIIB that joined by over 100 countries to compete with the World Bank, build railways, highways, stadiums, skyscraper, subways,dam , canal…all over the world. And China also has cultivated international companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, tik tok, DJI, Lenovo, iaomi , Huawei, and leads the world in newest advanced technologies such as AI and electric vehicles. Not mention manufacturing.

此外，2019年中国已经成为全球第二大经济体，全球最大的4家银行均为中国所有。中国还成功号召137个国家加入“一带一路”，成立亚投行与世界银行竞争并邀请100多个国家加入，中国在世界各地修建铁路、高速公路、体育场、摩天大楼、地铁、大坝、运河……中国还诞生了阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、抖音、大疆、联想、小米、华为等国际公司，并在人工智能和电动汽车等高新技术方面领先全球。中国的制造业就更不用我赘言介绍了。

The above indicators are all important economic indicators. There are also other indicators, and I can't list them all. What needs to be noticed is the above data (except the first one) does not include Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. If these three places are added, the gap between China and India will be even larger (for example Hong Kong alone exports more than the whole India).

上文列出的指标均为重要的经济指标。其他还有许多指标，我无法一一列举。需要注意的是，上述数据(除第一个数据外)并不包括港澳台地区。如果再加上这三个地方，中国和印度之间的差距就更大了(举个例子，仅香港一地的出口就超过了整个印度)。

What needs to be noticed is India's economic growth rate may not be able to maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the future. For example, State bank india lowered india growth forecasts for the quarter ended September 2019 to between 4.2%-4.7%. India's GDP growth rate is very likely to be lower than that of China in 2019. If India can't even surpass China in growth rate……Maybe China is still a develo country by per capital GDP, however China is a very special case, and its global economy and politic influence not only much stronger than any develo countries but also stronger than most developed countries, only behind US.

需要注意的是，未来印度的经济增长速度可能无法长期保持相对较快的增长速度。例如，印度国家银行就将截至2019年9月的增长预测下调至4.2%-4.7%。印度2019年的GDP增长率很可能低于中国。印度连增长率也无法超过中国......也许按人均GDP计算，中国仍然是一个发展中国家，但中国是非常特殊的情况，中国的全球经济和政治影响力不仅强于其他发展中国家，甚至也强过大多数发达国家，仅次于美国。

So only 5 years left from 2025. Do you think India can achieve the above development within 5 years?

距离2025年只剩下5年时间了。你认为印度能在5年内实现上述跨越式发展吗？

Tan A.K.

What’s with this obsession to catch up to or surpass China? It is nothing but vain pride, and vain pride is nothing in itself.

Is it not better to focus on improving the lives of your own people? The only true competitor is with yourself, not others. Can India (and China) significantly improve its living standards by 2025? Hopefully so.

为什么印度这么痴迷于追赶中国或超越中国呢？这不过是虚荣的自尊吧，而虚荣的自尊本身毫无意义。

专心提高本国人民的生活水平不是更好吗？唯一真正的竞争对手就是你们自己，从来不是别人。到2025年，印度(和中国)能显著提高其生活水平吗？希望如此吧。

Hari Gobindram

Sorry No.

Recently a scientist was of suspended from America for stealing know how.

China does not mind having technology by hook and crook.

We are no where near.

抱歉，不可能。

最近，一名科学家因窃取技术而被美国停职。

中国对不择手段地攫取技术的行为毫不介意。

在这方面，我们甘拜下风。

India is struggling for a simple Mobile SIM technology.

India believes in FDI.

China too has FDI. But keeps improving it's engineering / Technology.

Huawie has cutting edge Technology in 5G.

印度正在努力研究一种简单的移动SIM卡技术。

印度相信外国直接投资。

中国也有外国直接投资，但中国会不断改进设计/技术。

华为在5G领域拥有尖端技术。

In 3d printing they have 120 houses for a village.

Above all they do not waste time.

India will not have 5 Trillion economy by 2025 Unless growth is above 8.5%.

运用3d打印技术，中国为一个村庄建造了120栋房子。

最重要的是，他们决不浪费时间。

到2025年，印度也不可能拥有5万亿美元的经济规模，除非每年的经济增长速度超过8.5%才有可能。

Ray Comeau

Thanks for request.

Sorry but it is impossible by 2025, 2035, 2045.

India’s GDP rate of growth is not expected to exceed China’s to any meaningful degree for the near future.

India has many structural issues it needs to resolve to be able to generate the level of growth needed to gain on China, yet there is little evidence the Indian government has any plans to tackle these issues.

谢邀。

很遗憾，但不管是2025年、2035年还是2045年，印度都不可能赶超中国。

我预计，印度的GDP增长率很快就要回落到中国之下了。

印度有许多结构性问题亟需解决，解决后印度的增长水平才能超过中国，但几乎没有证据表明印度政府已经针对这些问题制定了解决的方案。

Subodh Mathur

I am so glad that you asked this question. Too many people are focused on Pakistan, when the real issue is China. My motto for young(er) people is:

Wake up. Wake up. Wake up. China, not Pakistan. China, not Pakistan. China, not Pakistan.

But, sorry. No. 2025 is too soon. Unless there is a social implosion in China, and it begins to fall apart. Unlikely.

看到这个问题，我很开心。关注巴基斯坦的人实在太多了，但印度真正面对的难题在于中国。对于年轻人们，我有一句箴言：

觉醒吧，觉醒吧，觉醒吧！关注中国，忘了巴基斯坦。关注中国，忘了巴基斯坦。关注中国，忘了巴基斯坦。

但是，很抱歉。但是2025年留给印度的时间太仓促了。除非中国出现社会动荡，分崩离析。但这种情况是不太可能发生的。

Realistically, India needs 10% real (In every sense) GDP growth for years to come. Then, India could come close to China by 2040, and equal by 2050. For young people, that’s within their life times.

And, this will require a focus on economic growth. See my answer here for my views. Subodh Mathur's answer to Can India achieve 10%+ growth rate per annum? If yes, how?

现实点说，印度在未来几年需要达到10%的实际GDP增长率。这样的话，印度到2040年也许能接近中国，到2050年与中国持平。对年轻人来说，他们这辈子是有望见证这一天的到来的。

印度需要把重点放在经济增长上。请看完我的回答，了解我的观点。

问题：印度的增长率能达到每年10%以上吗？如果可以，如何才能做到？

Subodh Mathur的回答是：

My original answer is now nearly 2 years old. In between, we have covid, which has hurt every economy. However, the Indian economy has been hurt more than China’s economy. So, now, it will take even longer to catch up.

我当时写的答案已经距今接近2年了。这期间爆发了新冠疫情，所有经济体都因此受到了冲击。但印度经济受到的伤害比中国更大。所以印度现在需要更长的时间才能赶超中国。

Tauren Paladin

It’s impossible with India’s current economic growth. If the slowdown continues, India won’t even make it to $4 trillion by 2025.

单凭印度目前的经济增长速度，这是不可能实现的。如果印度经济继续放缓，到2025年印度可能连4万亿美元都达不到。

Yu Zhang

what are you talking about? India is already number one country in Asia, in 2025 probabaly number one the entire world, come on, man, let’s focus on the galaxy!

你瞧瞧自己在说啥？印度已经是亚洲第一了，到2025年可能就是世界第一了，来吧，伙计，让我们放眼银河系！

iu Liu

To be honest, it is doubtful if India can match the GDP as China by 2125. Some people obsessed on numbers, and imagine if India hold current GDP growth rate, it will catch China by 2050. But if you recall the China’s GDP growth rate of 2007–08(which is close to the current India GDP), the growth rate is easily doubled Indian’s. India has issues deeply rooted in its culture and government, the only cure is a revolution.

老实说，到2125年印度的GDP都不一定能赶上中国。有些人痴迷于数字，想象着如果印度能保持目前的GDP增长率，就能在2050年赶超中国。但如果你回忆一下中国在2007-2008年的GDP增长率(接近印度目前的GDP)，中国当时的增长率可是印度的两倍呢。印度的毒瘤深深植根于印度的文化和政府，唯一的解决办法是一场彻底的革命。