Do you think China and the United States will be able to end this state of great power competition in 20 years?

中美两国能够在20年内结束大国竞争的状态吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Peter Kaye

They can do it right now, all the US has to do is change their attitude, in 20 years? Won’t be any different than now, unless they do, its all just one way traffic at the moment coming out of the US, the US politicians need a bogeyman and have decided China is it, get rid of that attitude and all will be fine, WE ALL KNOW CHINA IS NO THREAT TO ANYONE. Hopefully they can get some semblance of sanity soon, but don’t hold your breath. By the way, there is no competition, that’s the whole point, China is not competing with anyone all they are doing is develo a better life for their people, if the US sees it as a competition, not much China can do about it.

他们现在就能决出胜负了，美国要做的就是改变他们的态度，否则20年内？

除非他们改变态度，否则再过20年也还是跟现在一样。美国现在还是单向输出，美国政客需要一个怪物做靶子，于是他们把中国当作这头怪物。

如果美国摒弃这种态度，那一切都会没事，我们都清楚，中国对任何人都没有威胁。我希望美国能尽快恢复理智，但别抱太大希望。

顺便说一下，两国之间并不存在竞争，这是重点。

中国并没有和任何国家竞争，中国只想为自己的人民提供更好的生活，但如果美国认为这就是竞争，中国对此也无能为力。

I guess there is one area you could call a competition, and that the military, China is building theirs as a defensive deterrent, and the US wants to stay ahead for their bullying power, why else would they have 800 bases around the world? For what reason?

我觉得有一个领域是可以称为竞争的，那就是军事，中国正在建设他们自己的国防威慑力量，而美国想要保持第一的宝座才能恃强凌弱，不然他们为什么得在全世界设立800个军事基地？为了什么？

China - World Leader.

Yes, China and the United States will be able to end such a great power game by the time when the GDP of China is more than double that of the US and China becomes a global technology leader. Even if China realizes the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in 2049 as planned, China's per capita income will still be far lower than that of the United States.

是的，等中国的GDP达到美国两倍以上的时候，等中国成为全球技术领导者的时候，中国才能跟美国结束这场大国较量。即使中国真的在2049年如期实现中华民族的伟大复兴，中国的人均收入也还是远远低于美国。

The world should worry not about a peacefully rising China, but about a declining and unstable America. The United States regards China as a competitor, not a strategic direction, but a loss of direction brought about by its sense of loss.

世界无需担心和平崛起的中国，但应该担心衰退动荡的美国。美国将中国视为竞争对手，不是战略导向，而是一种因为失落导致的迷失。

Elizabeth Wang

The competition is already set and done.

The recent tours of US diplomats across the world have been diplomatic disasters. The host countries expected some substance, but US diplomats kept reiterating the "China threat" in every other sentence.

这场较量已经尘埃落定了。

最近美国外交官对世界各国的访问都可以称得上外交灾难。东道国希望会谈能带来实质内容，但美国外交官三句话不离“中国威胁”。

I think the Director of Pan Africanism summarized the differences between the US and China beautifully: “U.S. vice president went to Zambia, landed on a Chinese-built airport, moved on a Chinese-built road, and spoke in a venue that is China's gift to Zambia and told Zambian people don't work with China.”

What does the United States even has to offer? More wars?

我认为泛非主义主任很好地总结了中美之间的差异：美国的副总统访问赞比亚，降落在中国修建的机场上，走在中国修建的道路上，在中国赠予赞比亚的场所发表讲话，却跟赞比亚人民说别和中国合作。”

请问美国能提供什么呢？再继续打仗吗？

It turns out that most people simply want to live safely, own a decent car, and receive a decent salary to afford their daily expenses. Most countries outside of the "West" have integrated their economies with China because, surprisingly, China is often the only bidder. While the "West" is only capable of throwing verbal diarrhea, China has actually improved the livelihoods of many locals.

I used to believe that China had a bad reputation worldwide until I recently broke out of the English bubble. China is actually doing great in Latin America, Africa, Asean, and the Middle East.

事实证明，多数人只想安安稳稳地过日子，有一辆体面的车子，有一份体面的收入，满足自己的日常开支。“西方”之外大多数国家的经济早已和中国密不可分了，中国经常都是唯一的竞标者。“西方”只会口嗨，但中国是真真切切地改善了当地人的生活。

我曾经认为中国在世界各国的口碑都不好，可事实是中国在拉美、非洲、东盟和中东都很受认可。

David Curtis

Related

Is the United States begng to lose its global power status to China?

Begng?

Hello! This has been going on for many years. I had the honor of participating in a research trip to China about 20 years ago, just when they were starting to really get ramped up. I was amazed at the focus, the religious zeal that everyone applied to their work.

美国的全球大国地位是否即将让渡给中国了？

只是“将要”吗？

亲！这种状况已经持续很多年了好嘛。大约20年前，我就有幸参加了一次中国探索之旅，当时中国正开始蓬勃发展。每个中国人对工作的专注和宗教热情令我叹服。

It was stunning, and when I returned to the USA I told everyone that the future wasn't going to play out the way they fantasized. Big changes were coming, China was planning on massive global expansion, and the entire country was working on this common goal.

Of course, I was 'making this up’, and ‘the USA is too strong', and 'God bless the USA’ and other bullshit. And here we are…

我深受震撼，回到美国后我就跟大家说，未来会颠覆他们的想象。巨变即将来临，中国正在规划大规模的全球扩张，全国上下都在为这个共同的目标而努力。

当然了，美国人认为我是“胡说八道”，“美国太强大了”，“上帝保佑美国”等等。现在怎样呢，大家都看到了吧……

I've been pretty lucky, I've been able to travel to most continents over the years. Anyone who goes out there with their eyes open, will see what I've seen. Giant construction projects in the works, or being planned, just about everywhere, with help, planning and most importantly, money — from the Chinese.

These are projects that will directly benefit the people who live in these countries. The people, not the corporate shareholders who control the wealth in these disadvantaged countries. In return, China gets special treatment with ship, resources, trade, taxes.

这些年我有幸走遍了几乎所有大洲。任何头脑清醒的人都会看到我观察到的现象。在中国的帮助、规划以及最重要的资金助力下，世界各地都有进行中或规划中的大型建筑项目。

这些项目将直接造福当地民众。在这些欠发达国家，掌握财富的是人民，而非公司股东。而作为回报，中国在航运、资源、贸易和税收方面可以享受特殊待遇。

They aren't really trying to subvert the local political or cultural situations, which is a thing that the USA just can't stop trying to do everywhere it goes. Regardless of what the idiots in the USA try to shout, China doesn't give a rat's ass about trying to make everyone a Christian, force them to have a fake de ocracy, and make sure the poor people stay that way.

中国人并没有试图颠覆当地的政治或文化现状，而美国在所到之国都无法控制这种冲动。不管美国的白痴怎么叫嚣，中国从未想过强迫当地民众皈依基督教，从未强迫当地民众拥护虚假的皿煮，让穷人们没有翻身之日。

The Chinese know that better living and working situations for the general population in these countries will only make them MORE welcome, when they propose the next big project. The average guy or girl gets a better job and better pay, and they aren't being told that they are inferior to their benefactors (USA?) and therefore they should shut the fuck up and work hard for pennies.

No, China had this figured out long ago. They get what benefits them out of the deal, and they see this as a long-term process, over many generations. They don't need to have instant results like Western investors are always worried about, the long game is their thing.

中国人知道，如果他们提出新的项目，这些国家的普通民众会因为生活水平的提高和工作环境的改善而更加欢迎中国人。普通民众得到了更好的工作和更高的收入，所以他们应该少说话，多干活。

不，中国很久以前就明白这一点了。他们通过交易为自己争取利益，他们认为这是长期的事，需要几代人的时间。他们不像西方投资者那样，总想着立竿见影，他们很擅长持久战。

Yes, these countries will need to find a way to pay for these projects. However, I don't think the Chinese will use force, or embargoes, it t threats to get compensation for the work they are currently doing everywhere. They are much smarter than that, they are the big picture, and are willing to spend decades to have things work out to their advantage.

The USA has nothing to offer anyone, but they are good at threats, sabre rattling and puffed up posturing about how great they are. Very embarrassing to me, since I'm from there…

没错，这些国家也需要想办法支付这些项目的费用。但我不认为中国人会使用武力或实施禁运，也不会要挟对方为他们的付出给予补偿。中国人有大智慧，他们顾全大局，愿意花几十年的时间让事情朝着对自己有利的方向发展。

美国从来不会给别人好处，但却十分擅长威胁挟制、炫耀武力、自吹自擂。作为一个美国人，我都忍不住为他们的行径感到尴尬……

China - World Leader.

The earlier the USA realises that its post WW2 hegemonic ‘rules based’ (meaning US rules) order is outdated, faulty and no longer able to sustain US stability, finances and economic prosperity, the earlier the China US fights will end.

“Actually, the Americans are not thinking straight. China does not want to be the global hegemon, Han Chinese history and culture is not set up for China to be a global hegemon. Go look at Han Chinese maps, their territories and areas were small and localised. It was the Mongols and Machurians that expanded the Chinese map. Now that Han Chinese are back in charge, the focus will be trade and economy, not territorial expansion.

美国越早意识到二战后 “基于规则”的霸权秩序已经落伍过时、错漏百出、无力维持美国的稳定、金融和景气，中美战争就能越早结束。

“美国人至今还没有认清事实。中国并不想当全球霸主，汉族历史和文化也不是为了让中国当全球霸主而存在的。看看汉族人曾经的地图吧，他们的领土和区域并不大，是蒙古人和满洲人扩大了中国版图。现在汉族人重新掌权，他们的重心放在贸易和经济上，而非领土扩张。

In fact, the only core interest of China is to reunite all Chinese lands because the fear is a breakup and future civil wars. And USA should not damage itself trying to stop PRC and ROC reuniting as a plot to contain China. A strong reunited China even with a status quo Taiwan, will focus on the Chinese economy and trade. And as long as USA does not try to dominate China, it will not bother US world order at all.

中国唯一重点关注的是统一中国，他们担心国家分裂和未来的内战。美国不该为了遏制中国而阻挠台海统一。一个强大的统一的中国，关注的是中国的经济和贸易。只要美国不企图掌控中国，中国就不会影响美国的世界秩序。

USA needs deep reform and help to sort out its usd31.5trillion bills and endless deficits. Its interests is better served negotiating with China on a plan forward that keeps the US order without banging US and West’s head against a huge Chinese economy and 1.4billion market that is surging, and cannot be stopped without harm to USA and the West. That applies to banging its head against a 6000 nuke giant Russia too.

美国必须进行深度改革，解决31.5万亿美元的国债和无止境的赤字问题。跟中国谈判，制定一个保持美国秩序的计划，这样才更有利于美国的利益。这样美国和西方不会被中国庞大的经济规模冲击，中国经济和14亿人的市场正在快速发展，如果遭到阻挠，必然要伤害到美国和西方。和拥有6000枚核武器的大国俄罗斯的对抗也是一样的情况。

Joseph Boyle

Anyone who wants to think about “great power competition” will of course gravitate to the largest powers, unless forestalled by explicit alliance. The exstence of competition discussion does not indicate a particularly bad relationship.

关心“大国竞争”的人当然都会偏爱最强大的国家。关于竞争讨论的存在并不意味着双方的关系很糟糕。

Clifford Nelson

In 20 years with the way things are going, the US will be so far behind China economically, that no country that is not being America’s bitch will will give a damn about what the US wants. The US will much like Spain is now, pretty damn irrelevant.

按照目前的发展趋势，20年后，美国经济会远远落后于中国，没有哪个国家会在意美国想要什么。美国会像现在的西班牙一样，无足轻重。

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