到2050年，印度和中国谁会领先

Which country - India or China will be ahead by 2050?

到2050年，印度和中国谁能领先于对方？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Roger Trump

India no doubt!!

There are many problems China need to fix.. Meanwhile in India, if anything is wrong, they can do a bolywood dance and the thing will fix itself automatically.

毫无疑问是印度！！

中国有很多问题需要解决。但印度如果遇到什么问题，大家赶紧跳一段宝莱坞歌舞，事情就迎刃而解了。

Aravind Varier

QUESTION : Which country - India or China will be ahead by 2050?

ANSWER : I am 100% sure China will be 10 times ahead compared to India by 2050 from the perspective of economy and technology.

Indians are getting everything wrong because their focus is on frivolous issues.

问题：到2050年，印度和中国谁能领先于对方？

从经济和技术的角度来看，我百分百肯定，到2050年，中国会比印度领先10倍。

印度人把一切都搞错了，他们把重点放在了一些无关紧要的琐事上。

I have a deep fear and it would be a nightmare for India if it becomes a reality.

I am expecting advanced Chinese Humanoid robots to be guarding their borders with India by 2030.

Indian Human soldiers will be NO match to the Chinese Humanoid robotic soldiers and it would be a doomsday for India if we continue to SLEEP in the false hope that Indian human soldiers will be able to protect the country from external threat in the era of humanoid robots.

我一直抱有深深的恐惧，如果它成为现实，对印度来说将是一场噩梦。

我担心中国先进的人形机器人会在2030年前守卫中印边境。

印度的人类士兵压根无法与中国的人形机器人士兵相提并论，如果我们继续沉睡在虚假的希望中，认为印度的人类士兵能在人形机器人时代保护印度，那就会是印度的末日。

It is a must for the Government of India on a war footing to recruit less number of Human soldiers and spend money on research and development to manufacture state of the Art humanoid Robots.

处于战备状态的印度政府必须减少人类士兵的应征数量，并投资研制最先进的人形机器人。

Our Target should be to replace 95% the human soldiers in India with humanoid robotic soldiers by 2050 as part of Modernizing the defence forces, which would help in utilising the Taxpayers money for further advanced engineering research rather than on salaries and pensions which today constitutes around 59% of the total defence budget.

我们应该设立一个目标：作为国防部队现代化的一部分，到2050年用人形机器人取代95%的人类士兵，这样做可以将纳税人的钱投入更高级的工程研究，取代目前占国防预算总额59%左右的工资和养老金。

Flying Pasta Monster

It is hard to say by 2050 since you will never know what will happen tomorrow. A big problem for China is population distribution. I think China’s economic development is slowing down, and will likely end up to a 2 or 3% growth rate by 2030. So basically, China only has 10 years to develop its economy. Another issue for China is Taiwan. I believe China will take over Taiwan before 2050, or never. So it might largely impact China’s economy if China does so.

2050年的事很难讲，毕竟你连明天会发生什么都无法预料呢。中国面临的一个大问题是人口分布。我认为中国的经济发展速度正在放缓，增长率到2030年可能会跌落至2%或3%。所以中国也许只有10年的时间来发展经济了。中国面临的另一个问题是台湾问题。我相信中国要么在2050年前收复台湾。如果收复台湾地区，中国经济可能会受到极大的影响。

I would say, the gap between India and China is probably larger than China and the United States. However, India has more potentials than China. Since the United States has already treat China as its no.1 competitor, it will be much difficult for China to develop fast like before. However, 30 years is a long time, we will never know what will happen. China was far behind USSR in the 1980s, but after 30 years, China is more developed than the previous USSR countries combined.

我认为印度和中国之间的差距可能比中国和美国之间的差距来得更大。但印度比中国更有潜力。美国把中国视为头号竞争对手，中国要像以前那样高速发展会很困难。不过30年是一个很长的时间，我们永远都无法预知未来会发生什么事。20世纪80年代中国曾远远落后于苏联，但只过了30年，中国就比前苏联国家加起来都更发达了。

30 years could change a lot of things, but you should first down to the earth, work hard, talk less and do more.

30年可以改变很多事情，但你们应该先脚踏实地，努力工作，少说多做。

Vij K

2050 is far far away 3 decades is long duration in how nations will fare depending upon domestic policies, business-civic environment. To be honest both countries have huge populations which has its tiny advantages but brings big set of challenges be it food education health employment and way world is changing with newer set of civic unrest channels like influenced or controlled social media both countries will find kee peace domestically quite a challenge.

2050年还很遥远，30年是一段漫长的岁月，各国的国内政策、商业和公民环境都会发生变化。老实说，这两个国家都拥有庞大的人口，这能带来微小的优势，但也为食物、教育、健康、就业等带来了巨大的挑战，世界都会随着受影响或管控的社交媒体等新的内乱渠道而变化，这两个国家都很难保持国内的稳定局势。

If all goes well and things don't change much; taking current scenarios into account to me China seems to have upper hand interms of economic growth be it gdp be it technology.

India on the other hand has wasted economic growth by bringing in self destructive policies like demonetisation or ever changing tax system and business frameworks as well some civic concerns making investors cautious and reluctant to invest in large sums.

如果一切顺利，事态没有重大变化；就目前局面来看，中国似乎在经济增长方面占据了上风。

另一方面，印度浪费了经济增长的成果，推行了废钞令等自毁政策，不断修订税收制度和商业框架，加上印度的一些公民问题，都令投资者谨慎观望，不愿投资大笔资金。

Whoever will ride on faster economical to the market R&D will be able to not only compete with other but take lead in global markets wng the competition.

To answer the question

3 decades is long duration and we will have to wait n watch how both countries grow into them.

能更快投资市场研发的国家，不仅能与别国竞争，还能在全球市场上处于领先地位，在竞争中脱颖而出。

现在我来回答一下这个问题：

30年是很长的时间，我们只能耐心等待、观察两国如何成长。

Dendi Lu

A short answer but can give the truth and stop the debate:

Go to these two countries on your own and find the current situations and their potentials by your eyes.

Women are not suggested to do this for an all-known problem.

我可以给出一个简短的回答，虽然简短，但足以道明真相并平息争论：

你们亲自去这两个国家走走看看，就能看清两国的现状和潜力。

但出于某个众所周知的原因，我不建议女性朋友这样做。

Chetan Gupta

Without a doubt china!! 21st century belongs to china.

毫无疑问是中国啦！！21世纪属于中国。

Although both countries have vast manpower & labor, china has skilled labors.

They have lot of money and forex reserves. With money you can buy anything.

They have very advanced armed forces. Be it a navy or army or Airforce that is only 2nd to the USA. With growing relations with russia china doesn’t have anyone to compete except USA.

虽然两国都有庞大的人口和劳动力，但中国拥有熟练劳动力。

中国有很多钱和外汇储备。有了钱就可以买到任何东西。

中国有非常先进的武装部队。中国的海军、陆军和空军都仅次于美国。随着与俄罗斯关系的升温，除了美国，中国已经没有其他对手了。

They have very solid infrastructure. They have most advanced high speed rail network running across country hel in goods transfer. Railways are growth engine of economy.

They have huge stock of rare earth materials. Electronics and almost all new devices have some rare earth materials. With plenty of stock available chinese can control or dominate the electronics segment for long time.

中国有非常出众的基础设施。中国拥有最先进的高铁网络，纵横全国，可以进行货物运输。铁路是经济增长的引擎。

中国的稀土材料储量极大。电子产品和几乎所有的新设备都需要用到稀土材料。充足的储量令中国可以在很长一段时间内控制或称霸电子产品领域。

There are no bureaucratic delays in china. If govt. wants something to be done then its done. While it takes years in india to build a simple bridge chinese make kilometers long bridge in sea.

They have been growth engine for quite some time and they have sustained more than 7% GDP growth for decades which really puts china much ahead than india.

在中国，没有官僚主义拖延症。政府想做什么就会雷厉风行地干。在印度修一座简单的桥需要数年时间，而中国人都能在海上修几公里长的桥了。

很长一段时间以来，中国一直是经济增长的引擎，几十年来一直保持着超过7%的GDP增长率，让中国遥遥领先于印度。

In India there are so many hurdles in any project. Land procurement, NGO protests, delay in getting funds, lack of solid infrastructure leads to major delays and cost overruns.

Politicians dont care about developments. If you have different govt. in your state from center than most probably state govt. will put hurdles in implementing schemes or projects laid by govt.

在印度，所有工程都会面临很多障碍。土地采购、非政府组织抗议、资金久未到位、基础设施不完善等都导致了严重延误和成本超支。

政客们不在乎发展。如果你所在邦的政府与中央政府不同，邦政府很可能会在实施中央制定的计划或项目时设置重重障碍。

Shrikant Chitko

Thirty more years is a very long time span. Thus it's difficult to predict the outcome. With that China should progress faster than India. India looks more like the proverbial dog trying to catch its own tail a one running determinedly.

Indian de ocracy is designed to pull everything in a quagmire rather than getting ahead. Present government is not allowed to perform in spite of its genuine good intentions. Unless this disease is cured, China will go ahead faster.

30年是一个很长的时间跨度，很难预测。中国应该比印度发展得更快。印度看起来更像谚语中那只试图抓住自己尾巴的狗，从未坚定地向前奔跑。

印度的皿煮只是为了把一切都拖入泥潭，从来不是为了取得进步。现在的印度政府空有赤子之心，却无法施展。除非印度摈除痼疾，否则只能输给中国。

Santosh Kumar

It is very likely to be China. At least on most economic parameters. It has got huge lead over India and it appears that lead would continue to be significant in next 30 years. Indians waste way too much money on non-productive activities. The Indian government is big and inefficient and indolent. Even the current PM with a significant majority and tough image finds it difficult to cut Government size, and remove inspector culture. Therefore it is laser Chines focus versus blunt and lethargic Indian style to move forward. Without doubt Indians have managed to move 100–200 million people out of abject poverty. There are many success stories. It is just that Indians are not consistent.

很有可能是中国。至少在大多数经济参数上，都会是如此。中国已经远远领先于印度，而且在未来30年里，这种领先优势似乎可以继续保持下去。印度人在非生产性活动上浪费了太多的资金。印度政府繁冗、低效、懒惰。即使是被多数印度民众支持、形象强硬的现任总理，也很难削减政府规模，摈弃督察员文化。印度确实成功地让1-2亿人摆脱了赤贫。印度人也取得了不少成功，但印度人做事不够坚持。

Deepak Kumar

china will be ahead of india as they have got a better and fast head start than us.

we were very late in starting economic reforms.

we still have to take major initiatives in agriculture, industrial production, education, infra structure devlopment, exports, jobs creation, health and sanitation. etc

it is a long way to go and we need to put meregency brakes on population & corruption and black money and reservation

中国会领先于印度，因为他们拥有更好和更快的领先优势。

我们印度很晚才开始进行经济改革。

我们还要在农业、工业生产、教育、基础设施发展、出口、创造就业机会、保健和卫生方面采取重大举措。

我们还有很长的路要走，我们需要紧急控制人口、腐败、黑钱和预留制等问题。

Randy McDonald

it's really quite impossible to judge which country will be ahead since each country has its advantages and disadvantages. China right now is substantially more globalized than India, but is this viable? India is locked into a nuclear cold war with Pakistan over Kashmir, but could this end? Both countries have their demographic issues, but can any be dealt with?

哪个国家会领先，真的无法判断，因为每个国家都有自己的优势和劣势。中国现在的全球化程度比印度高得多，但能长期持续下去吗？印度在克什米尔问题上与巴基斯坦陷入核冷战，能结束吗？这两个国家都有各自的人口问题，可以解决吗？

My feeling is that, absent any catastrophe, India and China will be approxmately in the same range, be powers of roughly the same order of magnitude. It's certainly imaginable that India might catch up to China if the latter has a growth slowdown.

我认为，如果没有发生什么灾难，印度和中国都能实现同样的发展，具备大致相当的实力。当然了，如果中国增长放缓，印度可能会赶上中国。

Winston

Look at the past, present and then predict the future.

In the past, was there any time in history India was prosperous?

In the present, the growth rate of illiteracy, poverty at growth rate of 2@ each year.

Prediction: SUrely, India will maintain the leadership in poverty and illiteracy in the world by years 2050.

看看过去，看看现在，然后再来预测未来。

对于过去，印度在历史上有繁荣的时候吗？

对于现在，文盲的增长率和贫困人口的增长率达到了每年20%多。

对于未来，到2050年，印度肯定能在贫困和文盲方面保持世界领先地位。