Why is it that China may not need Western technology very much longer?

为什么中国可能已不再需要依赖西方技术了？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Michael Barnard

China needs western technology? As far as I can tell, the only thing that they can’t do themselves right now is make 7 nanometer chips. 14 nanometer chips are just fine for 99% of applications, and China can make those. Oh, update: China figured out how to make 7nm chips despite US sanctions

中国会需要西方技术？据我所知，他们现在唯一无法自主生产的就是7纳米级的芯片。14纳米芯片对99%的应用来说都够用了，中国已经有能力加工。哦，我要更新一下：虽然遭受美国制裁，中国还是找到了制造7纳米级芯片的方法。

China’s universities are now top notch, and China is pum out vastly more PhDs than the USA annually. 80% of Chinese people who received their PhDs in western universities return home, and that percentage is undoubtedly climbing as the west descends further into Sinophobic idiocy. China gets gray rhino risks and knew its chip supply chain was at risk from US interventionism, unlike the USA which completely missed that it stopped manufacturing chips and most of the most advanced ones were being built in Taiwan.

中国的大学现在已达到一流水平，中国每年培养出的博士人数也远超美国。80%在西方大学获得博士学位的中国人都会选择回国，随着西方进一步陷入谈华色变的愚蠢局面，这一比例肯定还会继续攀升。中国知道自己的芯片供应链受到美国干预主义的威胁，而美国完全没有意识到自己已经没有芯片制造业务了，大多数最高端的芯片都是中国台湾地区生产的。

Taiwan has massive trade with China and millions of people have gone both ways over the past 13 years doing business, traveling and the like. They’ll sort out their squabble eventually, and almost certainly peacefully, especially if the USA stops rabble rousing on their doorstep.

台湾地区与中国大陆有着密切的贸易往来，在过去的13年里，数以百万计的人在两岸经商、旅游等。中国最后肯定能解决这个纷争，而且基本上肯定会通过和平方式解决，尤其是在美国不再到人家家门口闹事之后。

Let’s turn this around.

让我们换个角度来看看。

Where do you think most of the batteries in the world come from, either as a finished product from the world’s largest battery manufacturer, CATL, or with rare earths or lithium processed in China? When will the west stop needing China batteries and processed minerals, critical components in electrification, renewables and decarbonization?

你觉得世界上大多数电池产自哪里呢，不管是世界上最大的电池制造商宁德时代的电池成品，或是中国加工的稀土或锂？西方真的能摆脱对中国的电池和矿物制品的需求吗？这些矿物制品可都是电气化、可再生能源和能源脱碳的关键成分呢。

Where do you think most of the solar panels in the world come from? When will the west stop needing Chinese solar panels as we fight climate change?

你觉得世界上大部分的太阳能电池板产自哪里？在我们应对气候变化的过程中，西方什么时候才能摆脱对中国的太阳能电池板的需求？

What country do you think is capable of manufacturing sufficient electric buses to enable bus fleets in the west to decarbonize? Do you think New Flyer, which peaked at about 6,500 buses in a year and has barely started making electric buses will be able to replace even California’s 100,000 buses in any reasonable timeframe? What about the country which has 600,000 electric buses on its roads, and multiple vendors who have all built massively more numbers of buses than any western OEM?

你觉得哪个国家有能力制造足够多的电动巴士，让西方的巴士车队实现碳减排？你认为年产量仅为6500辆巴士、尚未开始生产电动巴士的新飞公司能够在合理的时间内将加州的10万辆公交车完全升级吗？如果一个国家的路面上已有60万辆电动巴士，拥有多个巴士车辆供应商，产量远超任何西方品牌，你觉得怎么样？

What country do you think is capable of building enough electric cars for that matter? Japan’s OEMs like Toyota, Mazda and Honda are barely making electric cars. Ford and GM still haven’t figured out how to make many of them. BMW, VW and Mercedes are barely off the starting line of electrification. Tesla is a new American brand, but it makes a lot more cars in its Chinese factories for Asian markets than it does in its western markets. BYD sells more plug-in cars than Tesla does, and it’s ship them globally. China buys over 60% of all electric cars.

你觉得哪个国家有能力制造足够多的电动汽车？丰田、马自达和本田等日本车企几乎都不生产电动汽车。福特和通用汽车也还未研究出大规模生产的方法。宝马、大众和奔驰在电动车领域也才刚刚起步。特斯拉是一个新崛起的美国品牌，但特斯拉的中国工厂为亚洲市场生产的车辆数量要比欧美工厂多得多。比亚迪电动汽车的销量超过特斯拉，而且销往世界各地。中国市场消化的电动汽车超过全球电动汽车总销量的60%。

What country do you think is capable of manufacturing a sufficient number of onshore and offshore wind turbines? The one that built more offshore wind in 2022 than the rest of the world’s combined construction for five years, aka China? The one that has built more onshore wind than the rest of the world combined for the past several years?

你觉得哪个国家有能力制造足够多的陆上和海上风电机组？那个在2022年一年内建造了超过全球其余各国海上风电机组总建造量的国家，正是中国啊。过去几年内，中国建造的陆上风电机组数量比全球其他各国的总建造量还要多。

China will be fine if the west’s actions like the US CHIPS act spread.

如果《美国芯片法案》等法案在西方国家扩散，中国也会安然无恙。

The west, on the other hand, doesn’t have the industrial capacity, the minerals processing capacity or the skilled and diligent workforce. The west has expensive domestic supply chains compared to China, whose purchasing power parity advantage is astounding. The west has to build millions of the things China has already built millions of to catch up to China’s experience curve advantage.

反观西方国家，没有工业制造能力，没有矿产加工能力，也没有熟练且勤快的劳动力。与中国相比，西方的国内供应链成本极高，而中国的购买力平价优势极为惊人。西方必须造出中国已经成功造出数以百万计的东西，才能逐渐摸索出中国这般的经验。

Indrajeet

China has been making significant progress in develo its own technology and innovation capabilities over the past few years, which may eventually reduce its reliance on Western technology. Here are some factors that may contribute to this shift:

过去几年，中国在研发国产技术和创新能力方面取得了重大进展，这能帮助中国减少对西方技术的依赖。以下是促成这种变化的一些因素：

1.Domestic innovation: China has been investing heavily in research and development (R&D) and has been building up its own capabilities to develop cutting-edge technology. This has led to the emergence of many successful Chinese technology companies, such as Huawei, Tencent, and Alibaba, which have been able to compete with and even outperform their Western counterparts in some areas.

1.本土创新：中国一直斥巨资大力研发，逐步升级研发尖端技术的能力。许多中国科技公司因此涌现，如华为、腾讯和阿里巴巴，它们能够在各自领域与西方同行竞争，甚至胜过西方同行。

2.Investment in education: China has also been investing heavily in education, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. This has led to a large pool of highly skilled workers who are capable of develo and implementing new technology.

2.教育投资：中国一直在大力投资教育，尤其是在科学、技术、工程和数学领域，所以中国拥有大量能够研发和实施新技术的高技能型工人。

3.Protectionist policies: China has been implementing protectionist policies to promote domestic innovation and reduce dependence on foreign technology. For example, it has been encouraging the development of domestic semiconductor production, which is a critical component in many advanced technologies.

3.保护主义政策：中国一直在实施保护主义政策，鼓励国内创新，降低对外国技术的依赖。例如，中国一直在鼓励发展国产半导体，这是许多高新技术的关键组件。

4.Growing consumer market: China has the world's largest consumer market, and its rising middle class is driving demand for new technologies and products. This provides a significant incentive for Chinese companies to develop innovative products that can meet the needs of the domestic market.

4.不断增长的消费市场：中国拥有全球最大的消费市场，不断壮大的中产阶级正在推动对新技术和新产品的需求，因此中国公司有动力开发满足国内市场需求的创新产品。

While it is unlikely that China will completely sever its ties with Western technology in the near future, these factors suggest that it may become increasingly self-sufficient in the development and implementation of cutting-edge technology.

虽然中国不太可能在短时间内完全切断与西方技术的纽带，但这些因素表明，中国在尖端技术的研发和实施方面已经越来越能够自给自足了。

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

Related

Does China have better technology than the US and the West?

中国的技术比美国和西方更好吗？

In any area of technology where China has had a similar start as that of the West and where the West didn't have a long and good head start, Chinese Technology is better, much better

无论在哪个技术领域，只要中国和西方站在同一起跑线，只要西方没有占得先机，中国的技术就能发展得更好，远超对手

EV Batteries, EV Turbines, Rare Earth Processing, Rare Earth Component Manufacturing, Double Maglev Force Technology, Deep Core Refining, Solar Layered Panels, High Speed Rail etc

电动汽车电池、电动汽车涡轮、稀土加工、稀土零部件制造、双磁浮力技术、深芯精炼、太阳能层板、高铁等，无一例外

Chinas technology beats the West and China actually owns core technology

中国的技术打败了西方，中国现在已经掌握了核心技术

The Apps that you see in China beat any other apps in the world hollow. It's because of Politics that many apps are not able to leave China but if you are in China or Singapore, the sheet quality of Chinese Apps and the programming and the Algorithms are OUT OF THE PARK

中国的APP打败了全球其他APP。由于政治方面的原因，很多应用程序无法在中国之外的地区使用，但如果你身在中国或新加坡等地，中国APP的页面质量、编程和算法都遥遥领先。

However Technology where the West had a head start of at least 10–15 years, there China lags behind either slightly or quite a bit

但在西方率先起步10-15年的技术领域，中国要么稍微落后，要么大幅落后

Aircraft Engines, ICE Engines, Chips, ARM, Robotics, Internet — these are Areas where the West has had contiguous development for 50–60 years or longer while China barely had 10–15 years and this head start means China is behind the West and is forced to depend on Western Core Technology

飞机引擎、冰引擎、芯片、ARM、机器人、互联网——西方在这些领域已经率先耕耘了50-60年或更长时间，而中国只有短短10-15年的经验，暂时落后于西方，只能依赖西方的核心技术。

David W. Rudlin

Related

Is China Modernizing but not Westernizing?

Excellent question!

中国正走在现代化的路上，没有被西化，对吗？

这是一个好问题！

I’ve lived and worked in Japan (I know you asked about China — bear with me) for more than 30 years. And from Day 1 I’ve been hearing how Japan is becoming more and more western with each passing day.

我在日本工作生活了30多年(我知道你问的是中国——抱歉)。从我到日本的第一天开始，我就听到人们讨论日本是怎么一步步被西化的。

And yet, all these years later, Japan is still Japan. Sure, people eat burgers and kimono are pretty rare. But — and this is the key thing — the fact other cultures do some of the same things as we do does NOT mean they aspire to be like us, warts and all.

但这么多年过去了，日本还是日本。当然了，日本人会吃汉堡，也很少穿和服。但是——这是最重要的一点——尽管其他文化和我们的文化有一些相似之处，并不意味着他们希望变成我们这样，全盘接受，毫无保留。

China doesn’t want to be “westernized.” They’d love to have American tech salaries, and big American houses. But they want those things because they’re nice to have, not because they’re American.

中国并不希望被“西化”。他们希望拥有美国技术人员的高收入和美国的大房子。但他们喜欢这些东西只是因为这些东西很不错，并不是因为这些东西是美国的东西。

In fact, most Chinese think America is on the verge of becoming a failed de ocracy. They look at things like school shootings and opioid addiction and the circus that passes for US politics, and walk away convinced that the Chinese cultural model is vastly superior.

事实上，大多数中国人都认为美国已经在失败的皿煮国家的悬崖边苦苦挣扎。美国的校园枪击案、毒品成瘾和美国政坛闹剧等等社会现象，让他们坚信中国的文化模式实在优越得多。

Moreover, the idea that other places in the world dream of being us reveals a dangerous arrogance, narcissism and ignorance. There are KFC’s in China? Folks, the Chinese were eating fried chicken for centuries before The Colonel discovered his secret blend of herbs and spices.

此外，认为世界上其他国家做梦都想变成我们的想法反映出一种危险的傲慢、自恋和无知。中国有肯德基吗？朋友们，在这位上校发现草药和香料的秘制混合调味前，中国人吃炸鸡早就有了数百年的历史了。

To flip the question, does the fact sushi is booming in the west mean the US and UK are “Japanizing”? Of course not. It’s perfectly possible to enjoy some products of a different culture without trying to make that culture your own.

反过来问，寿司风靡西方是否意味着美国和英国被“日本化”了？当然不是了。你完全可以在不同化其他文化的前提下享受不同文化的特色。