Since India has caught up with China in GDP growth, is it possible that India catches up with China in GDP within 15 years?

印度的GDP增速已赶上中国，那么GDP能否在15年内赶超中国呢？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Educational Warrior

Chinese did a wonderful job in develo their country. It's the 2nd largest economy in the world and largest by PPP factor. All this has been done in last 32 years. In 1990, India and China had equal per capita income. In 2021, Chinese per capita income is 6 times more than India.

中国人在国家发展方面成绩斐然。中国是全球第二大经济体，按购买力平价计算，则已是全球第一大经济体。这一切都是在过去短短32年的时间内完成的。1990年，印度和中国的人均收入相当。可2021年，中国人均收入已然是印度的6倍。

In 2026, China will become the largest economy of the world.

2026年，中国将成为全球第一大经济体。

During 2010-12, the amount of steel and concrete used by China in real estate was more than USA used in whole 20th century.

2010-12年期间，中国用于房地产建设的钢材和混凝土用量超过了整个20世纪的美国用量。

Pearl river delta is the fastest growing region in the world, in the fastest growing province of the world, in the fastest growing country in the world. It is a group of 12 cities (including Hong Kong, Macau and Guangzhu) which are in close proxmity to each other (like Delhi NCR). It will soon be integrated into a single unit, the largest city in the world with population of 12 crores. This single city will account for 4.5% of world economy truly becoming the economic capital of the world superceding NewYork and London by huge margins.

珠江三角洲是全球增长速度最快的地区，坐落于全球增长速度最快的国家内的全球增长速度最快的省份。珠江三角洲由12个城市（包括香港、澳门和广州在内）组成，这些城市彼此相邻。该地区很快就会整合成一个整体，形成一个拥有1.2亿人口的全球最大的城市。这座城市将占世界经济的4.5%，真正成为世界经济之都，远远超过纽约和伦敦。

From 1978 to 2015 China elevated 80 crore people out of poverty. Chinese middle class is double the size of USA (by american standards)

从1978年以来，中国让8亿人摆脱了贫困。中国的中产阶级规模已经达到美国的两倍(按美国标准)

Today, China produces 57% of steel, 25% of smartphones, 79% of 5G smartphones, 32.5% of automobiles, 80% of toys, 56% of LCD Tv's of the total world production. These numbers are rapidly increasing.

如今，中国生产了全世界57%的钢铁、25%的智能手机、79%的5G智能手机、32.5%的汽车、80%的玩具、56%的液晶电视。这些数字还在迅速增加。

China has a model of over investing in poor Asian, African and South American nations. China then swallows whole cities and (their national) economies if they are not able to repay their debt (Remember mahajans in Indian villages) Half of this is done in non-disclosure agreements hiding from world site.

中国在亚洲、非洲和南美等地的贫穷国家大举投资。如果这些国家无力偿还债务，中国就会吞噬整个城市和当地经济（还记得印度村庄里的马哈贾人吗），这其中一半是通过保密协议完成的，外界对此一无所知。

When a nation develops this much in small time frame, it's bound to exert its influence. In ways dangerous to sovereignity of our country.

当一个国家在短时间内实现如此惊人的发展，它必然会以危及我们国家主权的方式发挥其影响力。

China is engirdling India from all sides. One belt one road surrounds India in Yunnan (near Arunachal), Tib, Kashmir(POK) and Pakistan. Gulf has heavy Chinese investments. Maldives and Srilanka are literally owned by it. Bangladesh's biggest trading partner is China with 40 billion$ investment just approaching in (Ban + SL + Mald = string of pearls) Indo-Chinese nations are almost slave to China except Vietnam.

中国正在从各个方面包围印度。中国通过一带一路云南、xz、克什米尔(巴控克什米尔)和巴基斯坦包围着印度。海湾地区也有大量的中国投资。马尔代夫和斯里兰卡实际上已经被中国占取。孟加拉国最大的贸易伙伴是中国，中国近期即将在孟加拉国完成400亿美元的投资(Ban + SL + Mald =珍珠链)，除了越南之外，中南半岛的国家几乎都已沦为附属国。

Darrell Francis

In order for India to surpass China in 15 years, even by the most generous GDP estimates, it would require India to have an annual growth rate of 6.3 percentage points greater than China's. This means that if China averages 0% annual growth, India would need to average 6.3%. If China averages 5% annual growth, India would need to average 11.3%.

印度若要在15年内赶超中国，即便按照最宽松的估算法，印度的年增长率也必须比中国高出6.3个百分点。这意味着，如果中国的平均年增长率为0%，那么印度需要达到6.3%。如果中国的平均年增长率为5%，那么印度需要达到11.3%。

Realistically, the only why this is going to happen is if China enters a recession while economic growth in India remains steady, but it would have to be an incredibly severe recession, either lasting 15 years or a single massive drop in economic activity from which China never fully recovers.

现实地说，这种情况能实现的唯一原因是，中国开始衰退，而印度保持经济稳定增长，但中国的衰退必须是极其严重的全面衰退，要么持续15年，要么经济活动大幅跌落，让中国从此一蹶不振。

Rob Lloyd

In simplistic terms - Yes - but it will take a long time.

China has some massive advantages that India has yet to overcome:-

简单地说，可以，但需要很长的时间。

中国有一些巨大优势，印度现在尚未克服

1. It has already enjoyed 20 Straight years of formidable growth which has levelled off at about 8% per Year

2. It has a massive skilled, motivated and educated 2nd generation workforce.

3. It is not historically an expansionist nation so has no significant armed forces to drain away money that would otherwise be invested.

4. It has mature and diverse access to the biggest markets in the world, in fact the US and EU markets are saturated with goods - market places that India has yet to make a dent.

1. 中国已经连续20年实现了强劲的经济增长，每年稳定在8%左右

2. 中国拥有大量熟练、上进、受过教育的第二代劳动力。

3. 从历史上看，中国从来都不是一个扩张主义的国家，所以中国没有庞大的军队来消耗本应用于投资的资金。

4. 中国有成熟和多样化的渠道，可以进入世界上最大的市场，事实上，美国和欧盟市场已经饱和，可印度还没能在这些市场上打开局面。

To actually catch China, either China is going to have to go into one massive depression of which Only India on the world stage takes up the slack or incredibly find market places that not only provide India with enough activity to keep up with china but then even more so it can actually start to accelerate away.

印度想要真正赶超中国，要么中国发生经济萧条，让印度在世界舞台上填补空白，要么印度令人难以置信地找到了消费市场，不但可以为印度提供足够的经济活跃度来跟紧中国，甚至还能加速超越。

My estimate given the lead china already has, is that India would need to achieve between 12 & 15% year on year growth to catch China in the next 30 years.

现在中国已经处于领先地位，我估计印度在未来30年必须实现12%到15%的年增长率，才能赶上中国。

Ron Yeo

Yes, it is possible, if India allows the following conditions to occur:

是的，如果印度能达成以下条件，是有可能赶超中国的:

1) privatise as many state-owned companies as much as possible

2) Lift all FDI quotas and restrictions into the different sectors

3) Allow 100% foreign ownership for all industries and sectors

4) Give away 30-year 100% tax-exemptions to foreign investors like there is no tomorrow

4) Reduce the corporate tax rate down to just 5%

5) break off the following 5 cities into their own autonomous states and transform them into Free Trade Zones: Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, and Kolkatta.

1) 尽可能多地将国有企业私有化

2) 取消对不同行业的外国直接投资配额和限制

3) 所有行业和部门都允许外资100%持股

4) 为外国投资者提供30年100%免税的政策

4) 将企业税率降至5%

5) 将以下5个城市设为自治邦，让它们变成自由贸易区：孟买、钦奈、海得拉巴、班加罗尔和加尔各答。

If all this happens, you may really see India becoming the next China in a decade.

如果以上几点都能实现，印度极有可能在10年内成为下一个中国。

Amit Kaushik

The answer is within your question China is far bigger economy then India and if both are growing at same rate then using simple arithmetic we can see there is no way India can grow bigger.

答案就藏在你的问题中，中国是比印度大得多的经济体，如果两国增长速度相同，那么通过简单的计算，我们也能发现印度不可能超过中国。

However if Indian growth rate exceeds Chinese growth rate for a sufficiently long period or / and Chinese growth rate reduces then the gap will be narrowed.

How long will it take to catchup depends.on the difference between the growth rates.

但如果印度的经济增长率能在足够长的时间内超过中国的经济增长率，或者中国的经济增长率大幅下降，那么两国之间的差距就会缩小。

至于印度需要多长时间才能赶上中国，这取决于两国经济增长率之间的差异。

You Zeyi

Almost impossible!

China's GDP is about 5 times of India's GDP.

If India's GDP grows at the rate of 15%, which is almost impossible for India, 15 years later, India'GDP will be 16 trillion dollars.

If China's GDP grows at the rate of 5%, which is very easy for china, 15years later, China's GDP still large than India's GDP even If india's GDP grows at 15%.

几乎不可能！

中国的GDP大约是印度GDP的5倍。

如果印度的GDP能以15%的速度增长——这对印度来说几乎是不可能的事——15年后，印度的GDP将达到16万亿美元。

如果中国的GDP保持5%的速度继续增长——这对中国来说易如反掌——那么，15年后，就算印度的GDP以15%的速度增长，中国的GDP还是高于印度。

Suresh Korada

This should be possible? Ain’t it? Especially, since India has demographics in its favor. And China with its ageing population had demographics against it. So, 15 years, I am not sure. But somewhere down the line it is theoretically possible.

看着还挺有戏的啊，不是吗？特别是考虑到印度的人口结构很有优势，而进入人口老龄化阶段的中国在人口结构上存在劣势。所以，也许15年吧，我也不太确定。但从理论上说，这是很有可能的。

Li Daoyi

I don't think India's GDP growth has caught up with China's.

The difficulty of GDP growth is different in different economic stages. The richer you are, the harder it will be to achieve a higher growth rate.

印度的GDP增长率并没有赶上中国。

在不同的经济阶段，GDP增长的难度也不同。国家越发达，就越难实现较高的增长。

India's GDP in 2019 is 2.88 trillion, which is equivalent to China's GDP in 2006. The growth rates of GPD in China from 2003 to 2009 are 10.04% 10.11% 11.4% 12.72% 14.23% 9.65% 9.4%.

Scale and added value are the important factors affecting GDP.The level of added value decide the level of economic development.

印度2019年的GDP为2.88万亿，仅相当于中国2006年的GDP。2003—2009年中国GDP的增长率为10.04%，10.11%，11.4%，12.72%，14.23%，9.65%，9.4%。

规模和附加值是影响GDP的重要因素。附加值水平决定了经济发展的水平。

The reason why China's GPD growth slows down is that when the economic scale develops to a certain extent, it is difficult to increase rapidly. And the level of added value decide the level of economic development.

Whether India can surpass China depends on whether it can get a larger scale of high value added industries. If you can't get enough high value-added industries, you will fall into a middle-income trap.

中国GPD增速放缓的原因在于，中国经济规模已发展到一定程度，很难继续保持快速增长。而附加值水平的高低决定了经济发展水平的高低。

印度能否超越中国，取决于印度能否获得更大规模的高附加值产业。如果得不到足够多的高附加值产业，印度就会陷入中等收入陷阱。

Considering the current situation of India, I don't think that when India's GDP reaches 14 trillion, the GDP growth rate will surpass that of China in 2019. What I want to say is that I think India will be slower than China at every stage. That means the gap between India and China will be bigger and bigger.

考虑到印度目前的情况，我认为当印度的GDP达到14万亿美元时，其GDP增长率无法超过2019年中国的GDP增长率。我认为印度在每个阶段都会比中国慢。这也就意味着印度和中国之间的差距将越来越大。